6-23-14

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

Arena Football

No Arena Football Plays Today

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World Cup Soccer


10* Play Netherlands over Chile (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play UNDER 3 Netherlands/Chile (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Australia +1.5 over Spain (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Cameroon +2.5 over Brazil (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Mexico over Croatia (Top Soccer Play)

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XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Chase Whitley has won 5 consecutive games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 4 consecutive night games. Chase Whitley has won 5 consecutive road games and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.75.

• Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Gio Gonzalez has won 15 of the last 18 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has won 35 of the last 47 night games. Gio Gonzalez has won 8 consecutive games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has won 27 of the last 40 road games.

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play St. Louis -110 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)

Jhoulys Chacin has lost 9 of the last 12 games when pitching on a Monday and he has lost 27 of the last 39 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher.Jhoulys Chacin has lost 14 of the last 22 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he is 1-5 in all starts this season with an ERA of 4.53.

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50* Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play San Francisco -130 over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#903 Cincinnati Reds – Team Total OVER 3.5 -125: I am not sure how long this number is going to be around but it is lagging behind the current game number for now. High vig but Reds Bats are on track, weather better than average tonight for hitters and the Cubs pitcher could easily be having arm weariness right now with numbers down for him. This happens often later in the 1st half of the season prior to the All Star Break..

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Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee had the splits on Sunday in World Cup Soccer losing with a $25 play on USA +$420/Portugal and winning with a $50 play on the Draw +$300.

"Mr Chalk" won on Sunday in MLB in the National League with the Nationals -$135/Braves.

For Monday E&B have a $50 future's play at Wimbledon for the winner in the women's Division on Maria Sharapova.

For Monday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Mariners -$152Red Sox.

Ben lee is 153-184-5 -$3454 thru Thirty Four Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 35-33 -$781 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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PittViper / Matthew Bittle

Monday MLB
Two picks today, both from the same game.

2* ROT# 916 – 10:10pm – Seattle Mariners -150
2* ROT# 916 – 10:10pm – Boston/Seattle UNDER 6.5 (-110)

John Lackey and Felix Hernandez square off tonight as Boston visits the Mariners.

Seattle is fresh off a road sweep of the (were) hot-hitting Kansas City Royals, despite only scoring two runs in two of the three games (both 2-1 wins).
Boston avoided being swept four games to none, to the Oakland Athletics, despite a blown-save by their closer Koji Uehera thanks to a Big Papi homerun in the top of the 10th inning. Boston has won their past 6 games versus Seattle, all last year, but I believe that streak comes to an end tonight – and i’ll explain why.

John Lackey has carried 2013′s success into 2014, having posted an 8-4 record to go along with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 15 starts this season. In fact, he has had a quality start (6 or more innings pitched, allowing 3 runs or less) in 12 of his 15 starts. He’s been equally good on the road and at home, versus left-handed batters and right-handed batters and has allowed a total of five runs in his past three combined starts (1.90 ERA). The key to his success has been his control. He’s allowed 1 walk or less in 10 of his 15 starts. However, he has struggled a bit versus this Seattle roster. He made only one start versus a Cano-less Seattle roster last season, in which he had a .308 BAA – surrendering 3 runs in 7 innings of work. Speaking of Cano, he has a lifetime batting average of 17 for 59 (.309), with 8 doubles, against Lackey – posting a .810 OPS along the way. Other notable players who have found success versus lackey include Endy Chavez (8 for 13, .615 batting average and 1.264 OPS), Bloomquist (5 for 15, .333 BA), Ackley (4 for 9, .444), Brad Miller (1 for 3, .333) and Seager (2 for 5, .400). Really – the only players Lackey has found great success against are all injured: Smoak (1 for 10, .100), Saunders (1 for 6, .167) and Hart (0 for 3, .000). The nine players, who are likely to start tonight for Seattle, are a career 38 for 101 against Lackey – posting a .376 batting average, .411 OBP, .511 SLG and .925 OPS. Those are unreal numbers. While batter-vs-pitcher stats are not a good representative of the pitchers current form and are not a great tool to predict future outcomes, they are important because often times when a batter has “a pitchers number” they have confidence at the plate which is such an important characteristic and this can also effect the pitchers confidence/pitching (see Goldschmidt versus Lincecum).

Lackey will need to be locked in tonight as he’ll be countered by one of, if not the, leagues best pitcher. Hernandez is 8-2 on the season; has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts, 1 walk or less in 11 of his 16 starts and 5 hits or less in 10 of his 16 starts. He has allowed more than 3 runs just once, has lasted 6+ innings in all of his starts, has lasted 7+ innings in 11 of his 16 starts, has 122 strikeouts in 113 innings (9.72 K/9IP) and just 19 walks (1.5 BB/9IP). How’s his recent form? Hernandez has allowed a total of just 2 runs in his past 3 combined starts – giving up just 11 hits and 3 walks in over 22 innings of work. I think it’s safe to say: he is good. Despite his recent success at limiting baserunners and runs, he has not received much run support and the Mariners have lost both of his two most recent starts. I think he once again finds the win column tonight. How has he fared against Boston in the past? He made two starts versus Boston last season (when they were hitting the ball much better) and limited them to only 3 runs in 14 innings of work (1.93 ERA). Boston’s projected line-up are a lifetime 42 for 172 against Hernandez: posting a .244 batting average, .330 OBP, .427 SLG and .756 OPS. Those are pretty average numbers, with only 3 players hitting above .225 versus Hernandez. Despite all of those incredible stats, favouring Hernandez, he has yet to have a complete game this season. When a better opportunity than now?

Boston has been one of the worst offensive MLB teams in the month of June ranked 28th for both team batting average (.227) and team OPS (.652) the past three weeks. Seattle has ranked 12th for batting average (.258) and 20th for OPS (.691) the past three weeks; they are tied for 6th with 13 stolen bases … 5 more than Boston this month. Seattle is ranked 29th in batting average and OPS against left-handed pitching, but against righties like Lackey Seattle is ranked 25th and 22nd while Boston is 22nd and 26th. There is no real edge at the hitting position. It’d be easy to argue that Boston has the better offense, they did after-all win the world series last year but they have been putrid this season and have only gotten worst the past few weeks. Still, these two offenses have been bottom tier the past three weeks and this season (with Seattle getting the edge, thanks to better OBP the past few weeks).

As for bullpens, Seattle has the 2nd best ERA in the league the past month (2.13) while Boston is ranked 3rd with an ERA of (2.51). Because I expect Seattle to be in the lead by the time the bullpens are needed, I looked at Boston’s bullpen ERA the past month without their closer Uehera included and that ERA rises to 2.95 (still very respectable). So we’ve got two elite pitchers, two elite bullpens and two bottom of the league offenses. The starting pitching edge goes to Seattle, the hitting edge goes to Seattle (only because of recent form and success versus Lackey in the past), relief pitching edge goes to Seattle (because of Boston’s ERA without Uehera) and home advantage goes to Seattle (Seattle is returning home from a 5 game road-trip while Boston starts game 5 of their road trip). I expect both pitchers to last 7 innings and I project that Hernandez gives up 1 run while Lackey gives up 3 runs. If Hernandez is able to make quick work of Boston’s middle of the order (2-3-4 batters) I see no reason why he doesn’t pitch his first complete game of the season against the offensive struggling Boston Red Sox. I also predict that Seattle scores a run off of the Redsox bullpen and go on to win the game 4-1.

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary MLB Pick for June 23rd, 2014

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Time: Monday 06/23 8:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Colorado +104 (moneyline) at Bovada
Tools: Public Consensus | Bet this game

The Rockies have lost six in a row and are in desparate need of a win. I like their chances here against a St. Louis team that is 23-17 at home, but just 18-18 on the road and getting only 3.3 runs per game. The Rockies average 6.5 per game here at home. That's a full 3.2 runs per game difference. That is hard to ignore! Dating back to last season, the Cards are just 16-29 on the road following a close win by two runs or less. Meanwhile, over that same time period, the Rockies are 23-13 following a one-run loss. Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin has really heated up, posting a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts. With the huge offensive disparity in this game, and a capable pithcer on the mound for Colorado, take the Rockies tonight.

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BOB BALFE

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -135
(Lohse/Matzek)

Just like yesterday why not take these Brewers again? They are a superior club with a 8-2 pitcher on the mound this afternoon. The Brewers have been crushing this ball as of late and will love hitting in this park today. Take the Brewers.

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Steven Nover

Washington

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Bryan Leonard

Baltimore Under 7.5

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Behind The Bets

MLB

Toronto Blue Jays -113

St. Louis Cardinals -119

San Francisco Giants -128


Boxing Saturday

3 Unit Terence Crawford -190

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Maddux

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers

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MrParlayKing

Cincinnati Reds ML -110

Over 7 -125 Pittsburgh Pirates/Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago White Sox ML -115

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Jeff Clement

7* Chicago White Sox/Baltimore UNDER 7.5 (-113)

8* Philadelphia -101

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Ben Burns

Burns' Monday MLB Personal Favorite!

Tampa Bay Rays ML -137