6-27-14

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MLB

Friday, June 27


What trend was money on the diamond Thursday night?

Home teams went 8-2 against the runline in Major League Baseball action Thursday night, good for a success rate of 80 percent.

Home favorites went 5-1, while home dogs went 3-1.

This is a nice change as home teams have struggled against the runline, hitting just under 43 percent of the time this season.


Dodgers' SS Hanley Ramirez, questionable Friday

Ramirez is dealing with shoulder irritation and has missed the last three games. He had an MRI done that reviled no serious damage and he is questionable for Friday against the Cardinals


Blue Jays' RF Jose Bautista, questionable Friday

Bautista has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and has missed the last four games. He is questionable for Friday against the White Sox.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
Play On - Any team (LA DODGERS) good baserunning team - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game on the season, after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base
155-99 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.0% | 55.6 units )
13-8 this year. ( 61.9% | 4.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | OAKLAND at MIAMI
OAKLAND is 86-43 (+47.2 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.2) , OPPONENT (3.7)

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY

***** Friday, 6/27/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
Earlier this week, StatSystems Sports looked at the Over/Under records in Major League Baseball games with totals of 10 or more runs, finding that there was a sharp decline in double-digit totals in recent seasons and that the Under has been a profitable play when the Over/Under reaches those heights. Then, the Colorado Rockies when 4-1-1 Over/Under in six straight games with double-digit totals.

Now, we flip the inquiry and look at the slimmest MLB totals over the past four seasons (2011-2014) to see if the Over or the Under hold any extra value when the baseball oddsmakers get stingy with the scores. The short answer to that question is “No”. During that four-year span, games which were tagged with totals of 6.5 runs or fewer are 290-302-12 O/U, including a 47-44 O/U mark so far this season. However, breaking it down by exact total, there is a slight edge to the Over in MLB games with totals of six runs, producing a 50-40-12 O/U mark since 2011 (55 percent Over), and a 5-2 O/U this season.

It’s interesting to note that there is currently an uptick in games with sub-7 run totals during the 2014 season. So far, the current MLB schedule has featured 99 games with totals of 6.5 or shorter and we’re just wrapping up June. There were only 117 of those totals in 2013 (51-63-3 O/U) – including zero totals below six runs. Books posted 175 numbers of 6.5 or smaller in 2012 (85-86-4 O/U) and 213 of them in 2011 (101-107-5 O/U). Compare 2014’s current sub-7 total pace to the number of double-digit totals – 31 – in the first three months of the season and it’s easy to see that the pitching is the precedent in the modern major leagues.

The one team producing the lowest totals in 2014 are the San Diego Padres (25-50-4 O/U), who have been featured in 25 of the 99 games with totals of 6.5 or fewer. San Diego has posted a 13-15 Over/Under record in those games, with a 9-13 O/U mark inside Petco Park – which ranks 26th in ballpark factor (0.915). Thursday’s MLB schedule features one game with a total under seven runs – a 6.5-run total between St. Louis and Los Angeles with the Cardinals going with Adam Wainwright on the mound and the Dodgers handing the ball to Josh Beckett.

Note: There have been only 15 totals of 5.5 runs over the past four seasons (2011-2014). Those games have finished with a 8-7 Over/Under record.

Thursday's MLB Roundup
-- The Minnesota Twins promoted 20-year-old shortstop Jorge Polanco from Class A to the majors, the team announced Thursday. In 72 games with Class A Fort Myers, Polanco hit .289 (83-for-287) with 12 doubles, five home runs and 35 RBIs. Polanco, who was just named Florida State League Player of the Week, made 68 starts at shortstop and one at second base for Fort Myers. The Twins needed an infielder as shortstop Danny Santana is sidelined with left knee soreness. To make room for Polanco on the 25-man roster, the Twins optioned right-handed pitcher Yohan Pino to Triple-A Rochester. Pino made two starts for the Twins, posting a 6.30 ERA.

-- Boston Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino, who was hoping he would return from his hamstring injury within the next week, had his rehab shut down with back soreness, according to reports. Victorino, 33, has been out since late May with the hamstring strain. He missed most of April with another hamstring strain. Victorino has battled numerous hamstring issues over the years but this is the first time his back is giving him a problem. In only 21 games between injuries, Victorino has hit .242 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals this season. He hit .294 with 15 homers, 61 RBIs and 21 steals in 122 games last season en route to the team's World Series title.

-- The Chicago White Sox designated left-handed pitcher Scott Downs for assignment and recalled left-hander Eric Surkamp from Triple-A Charlotte, the team announced Thursday. Surkamp, 26, has gone 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 73 1/3 innings, including 84 strikeouts in 14 games (11 starts) with Charlotte this season. This is his first year in the White Sox organization after being claimed off waivers from the San Francisco Giants on Dec. 23, 2013. Surkamp was 2-3 with a 7.36 ERA in seven starts with the Giants (2011, 2013). Downs, 38, went 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in 23 2/3 innings, with 15 walks and 22 strikeouts in 38 games this season, his first with the Sox.

-- The Houston Astros called up right-hander Jose Veras from Triple-A Oklahoma City and designated for assignment veteran right-hander Kyle Farnsworth on Thursday. Veras, who was signed on June 15, hurled two scoreless innings on one hit while striking out four for Oklahoma City. He had been released by the Chicago Cubs five days earlier. Veras was 21 for 25 in save chances last year. The 38-year-old Farnsworth, who signed with Houston six weeks ago after being let go by the New York Mets, has surrendered six earned runs on nine hits in his last 5 1/3 innings. He is 0-3 with a 4.40 ERA in 28 2/3 innings this year.

-- Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte was not in the starting lineup for a second straight game after suffering concussion-like symptoms Tuesday night while sliding into second base in a game at Tampa Bay. The head and neck are no longer a problem, but Marte is still feeling the effects of a jammed right middle finger.

-- The New York Mets activated center fielder Juan Lagares from the 15-day disabled list before the game and optioned infielder Wilmer Flores to Triple-A Las Vegas. Lagares had been out since June 2 with a right intercostal strain.

-- Pirates left-hander Francisco Liriano had a 30-pitch bullpen session, the first time he had thrown off a mound since going on the disabled list on June 11 with a left oblique strain.
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Betting Notes - Friday

National League
•Nationals-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Roark is 4-0, 1.48 in his last four starts.
--Hammel is 1-2, 2.81 in his last five starts.

--Washington lost six of last eight on road.
--Cubs lost four of their last six games.

--Five of last seven Roark starts stayed under total.

•Braves-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Teheran is 0-2, 4.64 in his last three starts.
--Kendrick is 2-2, 4.78 in his last five starts.

--Braves are 6-9 in their last fifteen games overall.
--Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten home games.

--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Teheran starts.

•Mets-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--DeGrom is 1-4, 3.75 in his first eight MLB starts.
--Cumpton is 3-0, 3.09 in his last four starts.

--Mets won five of their last eight games.
--Pirates won five of their last six games.

--Four of last five New York games went over the total.

•Rockies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Matzek is 1-2, 5.19 in three starts this season.
--Lohse is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.

--Colorado lost nine of its last ten games.
--Brewers won eight of their last eleven games.

--Five of last six Lohse starts went over the total.

•Arizona-San Diego - 10:10 PM
--McCarthy is 0-5, 6.59 in his last five starts.
--Ross is 0-3, 5.04 in his last four starts.

--Diamondbacks lost ten of their last fourteen games.
--Padres won five of their last eight games.

--Seven of last eight Ross starts stayed under the total.

•Cardinals-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Martinez is 1-0, 4.00 in two starts this season.
--Ryu is 6-1, 3.12 in his last seven starts.

--Cardinals won four of their last six games.
--Dodgers won ten of their last thirteen games.

--Under is 14-4-2 in last twenty St Louis games.

•Reds-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Cueto is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
--Bumgarner is 4-1, 1.84 in his last six starts.

--Cincinnati won ten of its last thirteen road games.
--Giants lost nine of their last eleven home games.

--Four of last five Bumgarner home starts went over.

American League
•Rays-Orioles - 1:05 PM
--Colome was 1-1, 2.25 in three starts LY; he's allowed two innings in four IP in relief this year, was 3-2, 3.00 in eight minor league starts this year. Odorizzi is 1-1, 1.35 in his last three starts.
--Gausman is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts. Tillman is 1-2, 1.80 in his last three outings.

--Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 13 road games.
--Orioles won six of their last eight games.

--Ten of fifteen Odorizzi starts went over the total.

•White Sox-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Danks is 3-1, 3.81 in his last four starts.
--Dickey is 0-2, 4.12 in his last three starts.

--White Sox lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.

--Seven of last ten Danks starts went over the total.

•Boston-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Workman is 1-0, 2.55 in his last three starts.
--Nuno is 0-4, 6.96 in his last eight starts.

--Red Sox lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
--Yankees lost four of its last five games.

--Five of last seven Nuno starts stayed under total.

•Twins-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Correia is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts.
--Tepesch is 1-2, 6.27 in his last four starts.

--Minnesota lost its last eight road games.
--Rangers lost their last eight games overall.

--Under is 5-1-1 in Minnesota's last seven road games.

•Tigers-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Verlander is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts.
--Peacock is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.

--Detroit won six of its last seven games.
--Houston lost eight of its last ten games.

--Last eight Verlander starts went over the total.

•Angels-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Shoemaker is 5-0, 3.42 in seven starts this season.
--Vargas is 3-1, 2.27 in his last six starts.

--Angels won their last six games, but lost nine of last 12 on road.
--Kansas City lost six of its last seven games.

--Four of last five Shoemaker starts went over the total.

•Indians-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Bauer is 1-1, 5.11 in his last four starts.
--Young is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts.

--Cleveland lost five of its last seven games.
--Seattle won five of its last six games.

--Nine of last ten Young starts stayed under total.

Interleague
•Athletics-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--DeSclafani is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.

--A's won eight of their last eleven games.
--Miami lost four of its last five home games.

--Six of last nine Miami games stayed under.

Diamond Trends - Friday
•ST LOUIS is 30-5 (+24.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss versus opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 5.7, OPPONENT 2.8.

•BALTIMORE is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games against division opponents this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 2.7.

•TAMPA BAY is 8-28 (-22.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.5.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 6-17 (-23.5 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3.

•CHRIS TILLMAN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 3.5, OPPONENT 3.5.

•JOHN DANKS is 1-12 (-13.8 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 4.8.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY YANKEES) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL.
(72-22 since 1997.) (76.6%, +42.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -134.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.6, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.9)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6, +2.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13, +11.5 units).

•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(63-22 since 1997.) (74.1%, +44.8 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 53 (62.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8, +15.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-13, +23.5 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TORONTO) - an average American League offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, after allowing 2 runs or less.
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-105
The average score in these games was: Team 6.7, Opponent 5.4 (Total runs scored = 12.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 34 (61.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-7, +17 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-125, +14.6 units).

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Cappers Access

Nationals -113

Tigers RL -1.5 +110

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EZWINNERS


3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

(903) Atlanta Braves -$146

(Risking $438 to win $300) (Action)


3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

(907) Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-$125)

(Risking $420 to win $300) (Action)

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Tampasports

free play yanks/boston-over total 9

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PowerPlayWins

Power Play of The Day

San Francisco Giants(-115)
Pitcher: Bumgarner

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Antony Dinero

MLB

Premium Plays

Play: Washington Nationals ML -105


Member Plays

Listed pitchers must go: Colome, Alex (R) vs. Gausman, Kevin (R)

Baltimore Orioles ML -144

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Vegas SI
FRIDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Pirates -140 and 10* MLB UNDER 8
20* MLB Orioles GM2 -110 and 10* MLB OVER 8.5
20* MLB Royals -110 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5
20* MLB Mariners -105 and 10* MLB OVER 8
20* MLB Tigers -155 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5

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GOODFELLA

Friday Night MLB Team Total

KANSAS CITY ROYALS - OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)

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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

In Early Baseball...1pm...
Take TAMPA BAY +135 to sting the birds!

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MLB weekend betting cheat sheet: Cardinals are Kershaw's Kryptonite

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend's major league action:

Brewers Best at the Midway Point

The Milwaukee Brewers reached the midway point of their season in style, defeating the Colorado Rockies 7-4 Thursday to improve to a National League-best 49-32. The Brewers lead the majors in money won at +$1,534 and have a 42-35-4 O/U record.

Toronto Averse to Big Totals

The Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 9.5) face another big total Friday as they face the visiting Chicago White Sox in the second of a four-game series. The Blue Jays have seen plenty of lofty numbers of late but have largely underwhelmed, going 3-11-1 O/U in their last 15 games with the total set at nine or higher.

Phenomenal Phil

The Minnesota Twins send Phil Hughes to the hill Saturday to face Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers. Hughes enters Friday as the top money-winner in the majors at +$1,050, with the Twins going an impressive 11-4 in his 15 starts so far.

Kershaw's Kryptonite?

Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw will look to end a curious career trend Sunday as he faces the visiting St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw is just 4-5 in 12 career starts, with a 3.75 ERA - his highest against any National League opponent.

Pitching Notes

* Arizona right-hander Brandon McCarthy has been bad news for the Diamondbacks, who are 2-14 in his 16 starts entering Friday's game against host San Diego (-133, 6.5). But both of those victories came against the Padres, who are coming off a no-hitter loss to San Francisco.

* San Francisco fans will undoubtedly be pleased that their Saturday tilt with visiting Cincinnati takes place under the lights. Reds starter Alfredo Simon is just 4-2 with a 4.01 ERA and 3-4 O/U in night starts this season, compared to a 6-1 mark with a 2.11 ERA and 1-7 O/U in afternoon action.

* Milwaukee hurler Yovani Gallardo appears to have turned things around entering Sunday's start against visiting Colorado. Gallardo has allowed just three runs - and zero homers - over his past four starts after surrendering 24 runs - and eight home runs - in his previous six outings.

Hitting Notes

* Brewers second baseman Scooter Gennett is having a month to remember, batting an even .400 so far in June entering Friday's encounter with the Rockies (+179, 9). Gennett has 11 RBIs over his previous nine games, during which Milwaukee is 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 O/U.

* It could be tough sledding for Houston hitters in their Saturday encounter with the host Detroit Tigers. Members of the Astros roster are hitting just .159 with 24 strikeouts in 69 at-bats against Tigers starter Max Scherzer.

* Chicago White Sox rookie Jose Abreu may find things difficult in Sunday's series finale with the Toronto Blue Jays. Abreu enters Friday hitting just .242 versus left-handed pitching, and will face one of the league's hottest southpaws in Toronto's Mark Buehrle.

Totals Streak

Colorado Rockies (6-1-1 O/U): How big is too big a total? That has been a difficult question to answer for oddsmakers who continue to struggle with the high-scoring Rockies; Colorado faced three totals of 11 or higher in a six-game stretch, and promptly went 2-0-1 O/U.

Prop of the Day

The Brewers are a strong bet at -4.5, paying +400 against a Rockies team that ranks last in the majors in team ERA (4.93).

Injury Notes

* An MRI on Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez's right shoulder revealed no structural damage, meaning he'll likely avoid a DL stint. The Dodgers are 6-2 SU, 2-6 O/U and +422 units in eight games without Ramirez so far in 2014.

* Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado will take batting practice Friday as he continues to rehab a fractured left middle finger. The Rockies have scuffled in his absence, going 9-22 SU, 18-10-3 O/U and losing a whopping -1,185 units over that stretch.

* Washington outfielder Bryce Harper may return from a torn thumb ligament as soon as Monday. Harper has been on the disabled list since late-April with the injury; the Nationals are 28-26 SU, 22-27-5 O/U and -270 units in his absence.

WAG of the Day

Laura Posada is the wife of former New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada.



Weather Watch

* Fans at The Ballpark in Arlington are in for some unusual weather Friday, with wind blowing in from center field at 17 mph for the game between the host Rangers (-133, 9.5) and Minnesota. Texas played just two games under similar conditions last season, with teams combining to hit a paltry .168.

* Wind at Wrigley Field will be blowing out to left field Saturday when the Cubs entertain the Nationals. Teams averaged a whopping 11.33 runs and three home runs under similar conditions a season ago, well above stadium averages.

Umpire Note of the Day

The home team is 8-0 in umpire Dale Scott's last eight Friday games behind home plate involving Colorado. That's bad news for the Rockies, who visit red-hot Milwaukee.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:20 a.m. ET Friday.

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Doc's Sports

MLB

5* Tampa Bay Rays -110 Game 2

4* Los Angeles Angels -105

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Strike Point Sports

MLB

4* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105

3* Seattle Mariners -105

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Indian Cowboy

MLB

7* #903. Take Atlanta Braves ML over Philadelphia Phillies (Friday @ 7:05pm est)