7-5-14

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MLB

Saturday, July 5


Kazmir untouchable at home

Scott Kazmir has been on-fire for the Oakland Athletics on O-Town. Kazmir is 4-0 in his last four starts at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

Kazmir has onl given up four hits per game and less than one run per game, leading to four straight unders as well.


Lackey keeping Orioles bats at bay

John Lackey has helped bettors to a 1-5 over/under record in his last six starts against the Baltimore Orioles.

In those six starts Lackey has only given up 19 runs, which averages out to 3.2 per game.


Hernandez struggling at Cellular Field

Felix Hernandez has been unable to lift the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago White Sox as U.S. Cellular Field. The Mariners have gone 0-4 in the last four starts by 'King Felix' in Chicago.

Hernandez gives up almost seven hits per game and four runs per game during that stretch.


De La Rosa has been terrible against Dodgers

The Colorado Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound in hopes that he can change a terrible career against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies are 3-12 in De La Rosa's last 15 starts against the Dodgers.

Spanning the past 10 of those starts, De La Rosa has given up 40 runs, while giving up five or more five times.


Brandon Moss, Oakland - Ques Sat

Moss left Friday's game after twisting his left ankle and is questionable to play Saturday against the Blue Jays.


Smoak goes from Mariners' DL to Triple-A

First baseman Justin Smoak is off the Seattle Mariners' disabled list and headed to Triple-A.

The Mariners demoted him Friday after he missed almost a month of the season with a strained quadriceps. At the time of the injury, Smoak was struggling at the plate with a .208 average, seven homers and 29 RBIs in 63 games. He was batting only .191 in his last 56 games.

In four seasons with the Mariners, the 27-year-old has a .227 career batting average with 67 home runs and 204 RBIs.

The Mariners plan to continue to use Logan Morrison at first base and Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders in the outfield. Corey Hart will serve as the designated hitter.


Wright still out of Mets' lineup

New York Mets third baseman David Wright remained out of the lineup Friday against the Texas Rangers.

Wright has been out with a bruised rotator cuff in his left shoulder.

The club was hopeful that he would return Friday for the start of a 10-game homestand.

Wright missed the final six games of a 1-7 road trip and left the Mets (37-48) a season-worst 10 games out of first place in the National League East after being swept in a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves.

Wright was not with the team in Atlanta, instead receiving treatment in New York on his non-throwing shoulder that forced him out of the June 26 game at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Mets have avoided placing Wright on the 15-day disabled list while playing a man short for the past six games. Eric Campbell has been filling in for Wright at third base.

Wright had a 10-game hitting streak in which he was batting .385 with two home runs and seven RBIs despite dealing with discomfort in the shoulder for more than two weeks.

For the season, Wright is batting .277 with six homers and 41 RBIs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
It took 12 innings to cash a winner with Oakland yesterday, and we will come back on them today vs a injured Blue Jays line up. I've got four plays going on a busy Saturday...
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS TO WIN (-139)
2 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-109)
Listed Pitchers: Buehrle vs Kazmir
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.44 units)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.84 units)
Toronto has scored 1 run over their two games so far in Oakland, which has been 21 innings after last night's extra innings game. They've been dealing with some injuries, and although they might have Colby Rasmus back in the lineup they are facing another tough lefty in Scott Kazmir. Lind, Rasmus and Francisco all struggle vs lefties, but all will play or give way to a Triple-A player today. Kazmir is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA, .216 OBA and 1.03 WHIP. At home he is an even better 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA, .190 OBA and 0.77 WHIP. The Blue Jays have Mark Buehrle on the mound who is 10-5 with a 2.50 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. Take note that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Blue Jays last 6 games overall, 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog, and 16-6 in Buehrle's last 22 road starts. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the A's last 6 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games, and 5-2-1 in Kazmir's last 8 starts overall. The UNDER has hit in 6 straight meetings between these two teams. Take the UNDER and the As again tonight.
2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds - REDS TO WIN (-128)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs Bailey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.56 units)
The Reds won the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 and are now 6-2 vs the Brewers this season. Today's starting pitchers have faced each other last month in Milwaukee and the Reds won that game 6-5. Bailey has faced Milwaukee twice this season, which were both wins by the Reds. Bailey is coming off a complete game shutout in his last outing as he held the Giants to just 3 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts. Bailey is 5-1 at home with a 4.03 ERA this year. In 6 June starts he was 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA, .224 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. Matt Garza is 5-5 on the year with a 4.10 ERA, .252 OBA and 1.28 WHIP, but he has struggled on the road with a 5.49 ERA, .265 BA and 1.49 WHIP. The Brewers are just 1-4 in Garza's last 5 road starts and just 1-5 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Reds are hot right now winning 9 of their last 13 games overall, going 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and they are 6-2 in Bailey's last 8 starts. I'm on the Reds at home this afternoon.
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (+107)
Listed Pitchers: Hudson vs Despaigne
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)
Odrisamer Despaigne from Cuba will make his third start of the season tonight for the Padres. So far, so good as he is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA, .200 OBA and 0.95 WHIP. He will face Tim Hudson who is 7-5 on the season with a 2.59 ERA, but has had his struggles lately. Over 6 June starts he was 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA, but opponents were hitting .293 against him for the month with a 1.45 WHIP. He has posted a 6.38 ERA over his last three starts. The Padres won the first game of this series last night by a score of 2-0. After such a great start to the season the Giants are now just 5-18 in their last 23 games overall. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 as a favorite, 0-8 in their last 8 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 0-6 in their last 6 vs right handed starters. The Padres have won 5 in a row, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. San Diego has won 6 of their last 8 meetings with San Fran at home. I'll take the Padres at plus money.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox - MARINERS TO WIN (-140)
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs. Quintana
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.43 units)
Pretty easy winner yesterday for a five winners in a row. Alfredo Simon was terrific and Kyle Lohse did just enough before imploding to keep the Reds in check. This matches my longest win streak of the season, so lets look to surpass that.
One guy that is certainly on a roll is Felix Hernandez. This is the kind of production we expect to get from Hernandez, so it isn't all that surprising, but he is playing some of the best baseball of his career right now. It is hard to argue, as Hernandez has been dazzling lately, pitching a 1.23 ERA with a staggering 0.59 WHIP and .167 OBP. He has an overall ERA of 2.10, 0.92 WHIP, and .244 OBP. It has been ten starts for him since he has allowed more than 2 runs. He has been earning his pay check and definitely locked in at the moment. Hernandez' ERA is even lower on the road with a 2.04. Jose Quintana has been hot as well lately, but note that all of those starts came on the road, a place where he is much better. At home, however, Quintana has an ERA of 4.25 compared to 3.01 on the road. In addition, his WHIP is not all that impressive, entering today with a 1.31. Quintana is going to need to be razor sharp against Hernandez, 3 runs against may be too many to overcome against the Mariners with him on the mound. I think the Mariners will be able to chalk up enough runs to give Hernandez a glorious opportunity to lock in a win to his credit. Ride the Hernandez train until the wheels fall off. I'll be on it today in Chicago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Washington -140 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)

Gio Gonzalez has won 17 of the last 20 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has won 43 of the last 60 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175.Gio Gonzalez has won 53 of the last 89 games when pitching in the 2^nd half of the season and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.00.

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50* Play New York Yankees -110 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Seattle -130 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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EXCLUSIVE SPORTS

Kansas City vs Cleveland - Under 8

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BEHIND THE BETS

Saul Alvarez -160 (4*) (Boxing)

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BeatYourBookie

SATURDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Milwaukee +115 over Cincinnati (MLB TOP PLAY)

Milwaukee is 27-18 in road games this season
Milwaukee is 18-11 when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher
Milwaukee is 9-4 when playing on a Saturday


10* Play Colorado +110 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

Jorge De La Rosa is 17-5 when the line posted is between +125 to -125
Jorge De La Rosa is 11-3 in day games the last three seasons
Jorge De La Rosa is 11-4 when pitching with five or six days of rest

=============================================

5* Play Kansas City +100 over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Houston +130 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

SATURDAY BASEBALL

• Play Colorado +110 over Los Angeles Dodgers----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

4:00 PM EST

Dan Haren has lost 75 of the last 133 games vs. division opponents and he has lost 31 of the last 54 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher. Dan Haren has lost 22 of the last 39 road games and he has an ERA of 4.55 vs. Colorado over his career.

• Play Kansas City +100 over Cleveland----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Jeremy Guthrie has won 24 of the last 35 games vs. division opponents and he has won 33 of the last 52 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jeremy Guthrie has won 28 of the last 43 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.14.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Reports: A's acquire Samardzija, Hammel from Cubs
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


The Oakland A's acquired starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs in a multi-player trade multiple media outlets reported Friday.

The Cubs will receive A's shortstop prospect and 2012 first-round draft pick Addison Russell as well as pitcher Dan Straily, outfielder Billy McKinney and player to be named.

The A's already have the best record in the major leagues, but they are acquiring more veteran pitchers.

They recently obtained pitcher Brad Mills from the Brewers for cash considerations. But the acquisition of Samardzija and Hammel give the A's two starters to plug into their rotation.

Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 earned-run average in 16 starts, while Samardzija is just 2-7 in 17 starts but he has a 2.83 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Saturday, July 5th July's Major League on FOX 3-Teamer of the Month!!!!!
San Francisco/San Diego under 6 1/2
Baltimore/Boston under 9
Texas/New York over 7 1/2

2-1 or Better or we'll email you Sunday's Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles/Colorado under 11
Seattle/Chicago under 7
Tampa Bay/Detroit under 8

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY

***** Saturday, 7/5/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #14
It is once again time for StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman to round the bases from Point Blank range, focusing on those key issues from the Major League Baseball mid-week series that can lead to major profits in the games ahead.

•Royals – James Shields, And The Toll Of Innings
The next time Shields takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 8-4/3.93. That will not cause many second takes; if anything it would appear to be “business as usual” for a consistent veteran that has worked to a 108-87/3.80 over 269 Major League Baseball assignments. But it might be time to start taking a closer look – the bells of pitching age may be beginning to toll.

Shields turned in a solid 13-9/3.15 in his first season with the Royals last year, a strong enough bottom line for there to not be major concerns over his K-per-9 falling from 8.8 in 2012 to 7.7, and his BB-per-9 being the highest since his rookie season. He brought a reputation as a guy that could eat innings at a quality rate, and that is what he did. But over time, has he eaten too many innings?

2013 marked his seventh straight campaign of 200 IP or more, and when post-season games are added, only Justin Verlander worked more over that span. But Shields does not have Verlander’s stuff, which means that he has had to work harder to get through those frames, and while there were some signs of decline creeping in last season, they are becoming even more apparent now. But not necessarily apparent to the betting markets – he has been favored in 15 of his 18 starts, nine times by -135 or more.

First, ignore the W/L tally – in the six games in which he did not get a decision he was knocked around to a 6.28 tune, but bailed out by the Kansas City offense. That was most fortunate – the Royals have backed him with 5.1 RPG, despite averaging only 3.9 in all other games. His K-per-9 has taken another significant drop, down to 7.1, but while his BB rate has been terrific, he is giving up a lot of hard contact. Over the past six starts it has been particularly ominous – 50 hits vs. only 23 K. In those six games his PPI reached 18.0 on four occasions, something that only happened eight times in all of 2013.

Shields is not going to fall off the table – he is too savvy for that, and being in a pennant race will have some of those competitive juices flowing again. But the issue of decline is genuine, especially now that he is not pitching all of his home games in air conditioning. He is not the pitcher that the markets are pricing him to be, and there will be opportunities for the savvy handicapper to take advantage.

•Blue Jays – Mark Buehrle, And Those Recent Bombs
Buehrle could actually snicker at the Shields workload – he has topped 200 IP in 13 consecutive seasons, and seemingly shows no sign of aging, with his 10-5/2.50 for the first half of 2014 having him on pace to have his best season ever. Don’t bet on it.

The crafty left-hander has set a terrific ERA pace, and understand the extreme via a little context – that is a full run below any season he has had since 2005. Yet there is nothing all that different about his “stuff” – K-per-9 is at 5.2, which is his career mark; 2.3 BB-per-9 would actually be the highest since 2003, though not far off of his career tally; and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate is not far off of his 45.4, though actually trending the wrong way. So how do the same basic pitches lead to such better results? There is one key category that got him off to the great start, and it turned in recent starts that is worth a closer look.

Buehrle has allowed at least 20 HR in 12 of his 13 seasons as a full-time starter, and dealt 17 in the only time he came up below that plateau. But somehow he got through his first 12 starts this season allowing only two, despite the fact that his fly-ball rate had gone up. Now things are beginning to even up, with six HR over the last five starts. But it is who hit them that may really tell the tale for what we can expect going forward.

How about this group – Derek Jeter (one HR in his other 298 at-bats); Brian Roberts (hitting .245, with three HR in his other 244); Brian McCann (hitting .224, with eight HR in his other 271); Moises Sierra (hitting .206, with one HR in his other 106); and Randal Grichuk (back in the minors after hitting .136 in 44 at-bats, with that lone dinger). That is not a very powerful cast, and Buehrle may be a short-odds favorite to be the answer to the trivia question of “Which Pitcher Gave up Jeter’s Final HR?”. It also means that it might be just a matter of time until the better hitters also find the seats, especially in the AL East ballparks.

Buehrle’s HR/FB rate of 6.4 percent would be the second best of his career, and on only one other occasion was it below 8.0. There could be a lot of correction in that category ahead, and he just does not have the stuff to work around it – his LD% of 23.1 matches his career-high from back in 2003. He has been giving up as much contact, at as hard of a rate, as in the past, it has just converted into HR’s at a lower rate. Hence an FIP of 3.67, and xFIP of 4.16, which are much better indicators for where his 2014 is heading than that current ERA. But like Shields, his past reputation will carry a lot of weight even through a decline – he has been favored in 12 of 16 starts, and with the Blue Jays (hanging around) in first place in the AL East those prices will stay high.

•Dodgers – Understanding Dan Haren, Circa 2014
It is a case of being a little late to the party on this one, after Haren’s sparkling outing versus the Indians on Monday night. But it really took time to come to terms with his transformation, preferring caution and patience as the season progressed to a knee-jerk reaction. The numbers are still not easy to believe, and when you see them under the microscope you will understand why.

Haren appeared to be on the downside of his career entering 2014, off of back-to-back registers of 12-13/4.33 and 10-14/4.67. The Dodger uniform was his fifth since 2007, which is rarely a good sign. He was 33 when the 2013 season ended, but looked older than that in “pitchers years”, having thrown at least 217 IP from 2005-2011, which can certainly age someone that relies on power. And in both 2012 and 2013, he set new career highs for HR/FB ratio.

With that in mind, Haren’s numbers in some key categories through the mid-point of 2014 would ordinarily scare you to wit’s end. His 6.0 K-per-9 is by far a career low, well off of his 7.6 average, and trending worse – in 10 of his L11 starts it has been five or fewer. His HR-per-9 has increased again, to 14.4 percent, and of the 132 pitchers with at least 60 IP, that puts him at #118. His swinging strike percentage is an almost shocking 6.5 (#118!), off of a career 9.4. If he was already in decline, and those numbers are factored in, this season would be a mini-disaster, right? Based on the peripherals alone, you might even project him to have already been on the waiver wire.

But that would be Wrong. Haren is sitting on an 8-4/3.57, and he has done it via something that was visible early, but not trustworthy – he is getting ground-balls. His 47.4 percent rate is by far a career high, and it jumps off the page compared to the 39.6 and 36.0 of the previous two seasons. It was a transition that was difficult to believe through his early starts, since it was so far off of his norm, but then he put it into perspective himself, and one had to take heed - "I'm trying to do what I did in the second half of last year, to focus on location and not focus on how hard I'm throwing. Really I'm just trying to focus on keeping the ball down."

So should anyone feel bad for missing that “second half of last year” change? In truth, it was not an easy read. He was indeed a better pitcher overall after coming off of the DL, but a 34.9 percent ground-ball rate in the first half of 2013 only elevated to 37.9 the rest of the way. There just was not enough there for even the smallest of bells to chime. But his own words, and the recent results, show that he had made a conscious change, and while all of those MLB innings can take something out of an arm, they also represent the opportunity to gain a lot of savvy. Haren seems to have done just that. The brilliant outing vs. Cleveland on Monday is not likely to be repeated, but for now the lower K counts and velocity can be mitigated – at over 100 IP in 2014, there have been enough ground-balls to be accepted as the new norm. Of course, what happens after Haren leaves games is another matter entirely.

•Dodgers – But After Those Starters Leave
Isn’t it nice to have the #5 guy in your rotation working at an 8-4/3.57 clip? Over the first half of the 2014 season there has been an individual take in this space on every one of the Dodger starters, now that Haren makes concrete sense, every one of them dealing with a positive issue. As a group they check in at 43-23/3.00, the allowance a quarter of a run less than any other team, and nearly a full run better than the rest of the league. It is why they draw so much money in the Futures markets – a Kershaw-Greinke-Ryu trio in October can be dynamite, and Josh Beckett is as good as any current #4. Haren would likely be reduced to long relief, something that the team rarely has a need for.

But you will already notice that there is something that they do need, given that those special numbers from the starters only has them 10 games over .500. It is in the latter stages where things have not worked out, and when you are as close as they are to being an October factor, it could mean some activity as the trading deadline approaches. The Los Angeles bullpen is 6-16/3.73. Only the Mets have more losses, and as a group the Dodgers are #27 in BB-per-9.

Closer Kenley Jansen has been fine. While he is 0-3 in decisions, he has converted 26 of 29 saves, taking his career mark to 88 of 105. That 3.79 ERA may jump off the page, after his 1.88 of 2013, but you can comfortably ignore that – his xFIP is at 1.84, a career best. He has far more K (57) than Hits + BB (45), and that is with the hit count inflated by a BABIP of .388, more than 100 points above his career average in the category. His ERA will gradually drop. It is the group that needs to patch between the starters and Jansen that is struggling.

Brian Wilson came into the season as a wild card, and in going 1-3/5.52 he has found the strike zone elusive, to a danger zone of 6.8 BB-per-9. Like Wilson, Chris Perez was a former closer with another team, and a wild card. He has not fared much better, an 0-3/4.85, at a 4.3 BB-per-9 that would be his highest since 2009. Jamey Wright and Brandon League have been decent, but neither sports the K ratios needed for high- leverage situations in the 8th inning of a close game, and while J. P. Howell is effective in his particular role, the Left/Right gap will always be there.

It is rare that teams go after set-up men at trade time. But midway through the season Don Mattingly still does not have an “automatic” option for the 8th inning of a close game, and there should not be all that much confidence that someone from the current cast is going to step up and lock it down.

•Diamondbacks – Aaron Hill “Better Walk (Before They Make Him Run)”
Any time a Keith Richards reference can be thrown in you should seize the opportunity. But as the trading deadline approaches and Hill’s name gets mentioned often, with several contenders needing help at 2B, there is an issue that the decision makers have to deal with – what happened to his batting eye at the plate? And for those of us having to generate a rating each day, it is an issue regardless of which uniform he is wearing over the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks have certainly been a disappointment through the first half, and Hill has been a prime reason why.

Hill seemed to have found a second-life in the desert, turning in that terrific .302/.360/.522 of 2012, with 26 HR, and while injuries shortened his 2013 campaign, it was still a solid .291/.356/.462. This season has been much different, entering the 4th of July at .248/.285/.368, actually posting a negative value in WAR. You do not have to look much further than plate discipline to see why.

In the 4th inning of a 2-1 loss to the Padres last Sunday, Hill drew a BB from Odrisamer Despaigne, who was making only his second MLB start. They did not stop the game to give him Hill the baseball, but it was almost to that point – it was his first free pass after 120 PA’s, dating all the way back to May 25 against Jose Valverde, who was appearing in what was likely his next-to-last MLB game at the time. And since taking that trot down the first base line, Hill has followed up with 15 more trips to the plate without a free pass. That is an ominous stretch for a competent MLB hitter.

Here are the bottom lines – a 4.5 BB% that is by far a career low, and 32.8 percent below his career rate. And a 17.5 K% that is not only a career high, but a full 23.5 percent above his career norm. Those numbers are alarming when there are now 337 PA’s into a season, and especially when they are getting worse, instead of better - since the end of May Hill has contributed a .236/.243/.300 line. Over a span in which he has drawn one BB, he has struck out 19 times.

There have been many instances in this column where the focus was on a performer that seemed to be underachieving in the box scores, but was actually playing well and merely suffering from some of Baseball’s idiosyncracies. Hill is not one of them – he has lost his patience and is pressing badly at the plate, and until that changes the downward spiral will not end. Opposing pitchers are adjusting accordingly, and so should shrewd handicappers.
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Betting Notes - Friday

National League
•Marlins-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Heaney is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA, WHIP: 1.118.
--Miller is 7-7, 4.10 ERA, WHIP: 1.429.

--Cardinal are 9-4 (+4.7 Units) against the Marlins over the last 3 seasons.
7 of 12 games in this series have gone Under the total over the last 3 seasons. (Under= +1.0 Units)

--Marlins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
--Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.

•Phillies-Pirates - 4:05 PM
--Buchanan is 4-4, 4.86 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.381 in 46.3 innings.
--Volquez is 3-2 when starting against Philadelphia with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.269.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The Over is 1-4 (-3.1 units).

--Pirates are 8-6 (+2.9 Units) against the Phillies over the last 3 seasons.
8 of 13 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +2.8 Units).

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

•Cubs-Nationals - 4:05 PM
--Samardzija is 2-3 when starting against Washington with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.010.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The Over is 3-2 (+0.9 units).

--Gonzalez is 2-1 when starting against Chicago with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The Over is 2-2 (-0.0 units).

--Nationals are 12-6 (+3.3 Units) against the Cubs over the last 3 seasons.
12 of 18 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +5.9 Units).

--Cubs are 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the Nationals this season.
3 of 4 games in this series have gone Over the total this season. (Over= +2.2 Units).

--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.

•Brewers-Reds - 4:10 PM
--Garza is 1-3 when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.563.
His team's record is 2-5 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The Under is 0-6 (-6.5 units).

--Bailey is 4-7 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 9-9 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The Over is 10-8 (+1.2 units).

--Reds are 24-17 (+1.8 Units) against the Brewers over the last 3 seasons.
25 of 40 games in this series have gone Under the total over the last 3 seasons. (Under= +7.2 Units).

--Reds are 5-2 (+3.0 Units) against the Brewers this season.
4 of 7 games in this series have gone Over the total this season. (Over= +0.9 Units).

--Over is 5-0 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
--Reds are 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
--Brewers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Cincinnati.

•Dodgers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Haren is 7-7 when starting against Colorado with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.243.
His team's record is 8-8 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The Over is 5-8 (-3.6 units).

--De La Rosa is 3-10 when starting against Los Angeles with an ERA of 6.17 and a WHIP of 1.617.
His team's record is 3-12 (-9.7 units) in these starts. The Under is 8-6 (+1.1 units).

--Rockies are 21-26 (+2.1 Units) against the Dodgers over the last 3 seasons.
24 of 45 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +1.7 Units).

--Dodgers are 7-3 (+2.8 Units) against the Rockies this season.
5 of 8 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +1.6 Units).

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Colorado.
--Dodgers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Colorado.
--Rockies are 2-5 in De La Rosas last 7 home starts vs. Dodgers.

•Diamondbacks-Braves - 4:10 PM
--Bolsinger is 1-4, 4.53 ERA, with a WHIP of 1.396 in 43.7 innings.

--Harang is 3-9 when starting against Arizona with an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.241.
His team's record is 6-11 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The Under is 13-4 (+8.3 units).

--Braves are 10-6 (+3.5 Units) against the Diamondbacks over the last 3 seasons.
8 of 14 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +1.4 Units).

--Diamondbacks are 2-1 (+1.1 Units) against the Braves this season.
2 of 3 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +0.8 Units).

--Over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Atlanta.
--Diamondbacks are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.

•Giants-Padres - 7:15 PM
--Hudson is 7-3 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.261.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The Under is 10-4 (+5.5 units).

--Despaigne is 1-0 when starting against San Francisco with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.571.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The Over is 0-1 (-1.1 units).

--Giants are 27-19 (+3.6 Units) against the Padres over the last 3 seasons.
26 of 45 games in this series have gone Over the total over the last 3 seasons. (Over= +6.2 Units).

--Padres are 5-4 (+2.4 Units) against the Giants this season.
6 of 8 games in this series have gone Under the total this season. (Under= +3.7 Units).

--Over is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings in San Diego.
--Giants are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego.

•Umpires Trends
Phi-Pit-- Under is 4-0 in Gibson IIIs last 4 Saturday games behind home plate.
Chc-Was-- Home team is 4-0 in Littles last 4 Saturday games behind home plate.
LA-Col-- Road team is 5-2 in Hobergs last 7 games behind home plate.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
San Francisco pitcher Tim Hudson is 15-3 his last eighteen team starts during July, including 9-0 his last nine. Hudson, who turns 39 on July 14, opened the season with a 7-2 record and 1.81 ERA, but he's now on the verge of matching a career worst for losses in consecutive starts. The right-hander has dropped three straight outings -- something that hasn't happened to him since September 2010 with Atlanta -- and would match the poorest stretch of his career with a defeat Saturday.

A 212-game winner during his outstanding 16-year career, Hudson has lost four starts in a row only twice before: May 4-19, 2002, and June 16-July 1, 2010. Hudson, though, can't be faulted for his most recent loss. He tossed eight strong innings and gave up two runs against Cincinnati on Sunday, but Homer Bailey pitched a three-hitter to lead the Reds to a 4-0 victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
By David Schwab
VegasInsider

The new CFL regular season just got underway this past weekend and we have already seen a pair of shocking upsets to kick things off. Winnipeg got the ball rolling with a 45-21 romp over Toronto last Thursday night as a seven-point home underdog.

After Calgary thumped Montreal 29-8 on Saturday as a 7½-point favorite at home, Edmonton went on the road to beat British Columbia 27-20 as an eight-point underdog. In a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup Championship, Saskatchewan was even more dominant this time around with a 31-10 victory over Hamilton as a 3½-point home favorite to close things out for Week 1.

Total bettors watched the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 record in Week 1.

Saturday, July 5


Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

Pointspread: PICK

Total Line: 53½

Game Overview

The defending champs are off to another solid start this year after going 8-1 SU in their first nine games of the 2013 regular season. Darian Durant was efficient throwing the ball in the win over Hamilton last Sunday with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent, but it was the Roughriders’ ground game that led the way. Anthony Allen ran the ball 27 times for 158 yards and one score while averaging 5.9 yards a carry.

The Argonauts are still trying to figure out what hit them in last Thursday’s season opener that started with a 17-0 hole in the first quarter. Ricky Ray’s numbers were solid with 283 yards passing and two touchdowns, but Toronto’s defense failed to show up after giving-up well over 300 yards through the air and over 130 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

The Roughriders come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 13 games between the two at the Rogers Centre. The road team in this matchup has won six of the last eight meetings SU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sat

Red Sox w/ Lester -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Under-Whelming'

The matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays Saturday night at O.co Coliseum looks to be another low scoring pitcher's duel as Scott Kazmir trades pitches with Mark Buehrle. Kazmir is 5-1 with a miniscule 1.61 ERA in seven home starts this season and has won four straight in front of the friendly crowd allowing a total of three earned runs. Buehrle may be winless in five starts but the crafty southpaw is off a sharp 8 innings of 2 run ball and did blank A's in his only appearance here last season. Consider 'Under' knowing the series is a perfect 5-0 'Under' this season, A's are 6-1 'Under' at home w/Kazmir , A's have a sparkling 20-5-1 'Under' stretch vs the A.L. East, Jays have cashed 11 of 15 'Under' tickets in Buehrle's road starts vs a team with a winning record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at BOSTON
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BALTIMORE) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL, where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season
43-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.2% | 27.4 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY is 39-17 (+24.0 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win

MLB comp

GAME - BAL @ BOS (Game 1)

Red Sox ML