7-5-14

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River City Sharps

David Phelps (3-4, 4.26) gets the ball this afternoon for the New York Yankees as they try and stay hot vs. the reeling Minnesota Twins. The Twins will send Yohan Pino (0-2, 6.32) to the hill in hopes to curb the Yanks recent dominance in this series. New York has won 16 of their last 19 games vs. the Twins and are really playing some of their best baseball of th entire season. Pino has been hit around like a pinata in his recent starts and is still winless in four major league starts. The Yankess are 8-2 in Phelps' last 10 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in their last five road games as the favorite. The Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 games as the dog and 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Yankees really seem to have some positive momentum right now and we think they hit Pino early and often this afternoon. Give us the short priced road favorite here this afternoon at Target. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - NEW YORK YANKEES ML -110

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SB Professor

MMA Picks

Rob Font (+175) over George Roop


Stefan Struve (-160) over Matt Mitrione


Chris Weidman (-175) over Lyoto Machida

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GOODFELLA

2* CHICAGO WHITE SOX RL+1.5

(Listed Pitchers)

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Robert Ferringo

World Cup Soccer

3* Belgium to advance (+180)
1* Belgium/Argentina Under 2.5 (-130)


1* Costa Rica to advance (+370)
1* Costa Rica/Netherlands Under 2.5 (-125)

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SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Costa Rica +½ +171 over Netherlands

(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.71)

July 5 – 4:00 PM EST. The Dutch Lions have not guaranteed a position in the quarterfinals yet but the odds makers apparently they think they have with this line. The Netherlands indeed have the pedigree, they have the talent and they have the moxie. However, what many fail to consider here is how narrowly this team escaped a Mexican team that had them on the ropes. Wesley Sneijder saved the Oranje in the latter stages of the match with a brilliant strike from the top of the eighteen. In the next five minutes the Dutch would strike once more and win the game on a controversial penalty awarded in what was later deciphered to be a miscalculated fall predicated by a flop. The Dutch would sneak away from Memo Ochoa and his Mexican compatriots.

Enter the Ticos of Costa Rica, this team is exceptionally gifted. In fact, Costa Rica managed to pull off an improbable victory given the circumstances in which they achieved the result. Costa Rica took a one to nil lead on a Brian Ruiz goal, only minutes later Oscar Duarte would be sent off with his second yellow card and the Costa Ricans would have to weather a Greek storm for a 30 minutes of regulation with just 10 men. The Greeks would strike in the closing moments of the second half, finding an equalizer on a second chance. Seemingly, the Costa Ricans were poised to make an early exit despite their spirited efforts but they did not. In fact, a fatigued and tired Costa Rican team would fight through extra time and emerge victorious in the final shootout, led by the brilliant goalkeeping of Claudio Bravo.

It is very feasible that Robin Van Persie and the Oranje may be sent packing by this resilient CONCACAF team that has defeated three former champions and a top-13 team in Greece en route to their quarterfinal qualification. However, The heart and character of the Costa Ricans should not be undermined and given the means that this team has arrived at their current station, the Ticos should not be counted out and they offer up too much value to pass up on.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Toronto @ OAKLAND

OAKLAND -1½ +156 over Toronto

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)

The Blue Jays have scored one time over their last 21 innings. They got a brilliant effort from Marcus Stroman yesterday and it went to waste. Overall, the Jays are hitting .234 against lefties but over their last 10 games, that number has dipped to .198. For the Jays offense, it’s a case of all or nothing because if the ball isn’t leaving the yard, they do not score runs. This is a difficult park to go deep in and that’s one of the reasons Toronto isn’t scoring. Their reeling offense now faces lefty Scott Kazmir. After totaling only 2 IP in the majors in 2011/12, Kazmir was a surprise contributor for the Indians in 2013. He came west to the pitcher’s haven of O.Co Coliseum in the off-season and with injuries to several young starters, Kazmir has been a stalwart for the A’s this year. Kazmir continues to build on his strong numbers from 2013. Kazmir was a big K-guy earlier in his career and he seems to have regained that skill. With a high swing and miss rate of 11% (15% over his last two starts), it wouldn’t be surprising to see even more whiffs. Combine that with few walks, and he has the best command of his career. While pitching half his games in Oakland helps reduce the homers, he’s also keeping the ball on the ground (48%) far more than in the past. Kazmir has also dominated left-handed hitters better than he did earlier in his career. With a 76%/7% dominant start/disaster start split in his 17 starts, Kazmir has a great opportunity to increase that dominant start percentage even higher against a Blue Jays team that is seeing golf balls.

We all know what Mark Buehrle is, as we’ve been watching him for years. What we all know for sure is that he’s not a 2.50 ERA pitcher and never has been. Buehrle’s nifty 2.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are both a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. An 82% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA. Regression in Buehrle’s surface starts in the second half are about the closest thing to a sure bet as there is in this game of baseball and that regression likely starts here.


Arizona @ ATLANTA

Arizona +145 over ATLANTA

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)

Aaron Harang has been a WHIP machine lately, allowing double-digit hits in two of his last three outings and serving up 8 ER against the Phillies on June 13. After pitching five gems in his first nine starts, Harang only has one strong start over his last eight. Harang faces the Diamondbacks at home today—unfortunately, home has not been where the heart is for him this year (.292 oppBA, compared to .247 on the road) and all that combined makes him a huge risk spotting a tag like this one.

Mike Bolsinger has some upcoming victories due to him. In seven starts he has one win and an overall ERA of 4.53, which provides us with this great buy-low opportunity. Bolsinger has a K/BB split of 5/16 over his last 20 frames. He has an xERA over his last three starts of 2.12 after allowing just 15 hits and three earned runs over that span. Bolsinger comes in with a 54% groundball rate, a strong 10% swing and miss rate and if it weren’t for a very unlucky 17% HR/f rate his ERA would be in the low 3’s. We also like the fact that the Braves have never seen Bolsinger, which makes him even more appealing here. A pitcher flying far under the radar, Bolsinger offers up some tremendous profit potential the rest of the way and we’ll put that to the test here.


Kansas City @ CLEVELAND

Kansas City +107 over CLEVELAND

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

The Royals scored seven times last night en route to a 7-1 win in the opener of this series. K.C. has now won two straight, four of five and they’re heating up again. You might remember about a month ago when they reeled off 10 straight and they appear headed in that direction again. The Royals are seeing beach balls and this is a great park to keep it going in. T.J. House has made six starts since being called up and only two of those were of the pure quality variety. House has an oppBA of .301, a 1.49 WHIP and only 22 K’s in 34 innings. It’s a small sample size but the Indians, like many teams, are desperate for starting pitching and House fills the void for now. House's minor league career skills and stats were underwhelming with a 3.93 career ERA at the minor league level over 764 innings since being drafted in the 16th round of the 2008 draft. Now he’s favored over the heating up Royals?

The reason the Indians are favored is because Jeremy Guthrie has been a big risk his entire career and not too many folks like to bet on him. The oddsmakers have all the data on which pitchers take the most action, for and against, and Guthrie falls in the latter category. That said, this guy wins ball-games. Guthrie is extremely smart out there and almost always throws a smart game, keeping the hitters off balance throughout. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and that includes games against the Angels, Detroit, the Dodgers, at U.S. Cellular against the South Side and in Toronto at the Rogers Center. The Royals have won five straight games that Guthrie has started and we’re suggesting that they give a little extra in support of him because he’s one of the most likeable guys in the game and his teammates want to do well for him. Regardless, a smart, experienced and skilled Guthrie pitching for the hotter team is a much better option taking back a tag than a career minor-leaguer is spotting one.



CFL

We’re going to pass on this afternoon’s CFL game between the Argos and Riders. Put a gun to our head and we’d take Toronto but the Argos defense is a serious work in progress and that has us backing off. Why not the Riders then? One, their stock is too high and two, a letdown after last week’s celebratory (Grey Cup presentation) home win over the Ti-Cats last week.

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Vegas Sports Insiders

SATURDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)

20* MLB Orioles GM2 +125 and 10* MLB OVER 9

20* MLB Braves -165 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5

20* MLB Tigers -155 and 10* MLB UNDER 8

20* MLB White Sox +135 and 10* MLB UNDER 7

20* MLB Yankees -120 and 10* MLB UNDER 8.5

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Allen Eastman

MLB

4* Seattle Mariners -145

3* Kansas City Royals +105

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Doc's Sports

MLB

4* Cincinnati Reds -135

4* Cleveland Indians -120

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

San Francisco Giants -120 over the San Diego Padres (Bet Level 2) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:15 PM EST

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Robert Ferringo

MLB

5* Under 7.5 Toronto Blue Jays/Oakland Athletics

3* Under 7 Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox

2* Over 8.5 Houston Astros/Los Angeles Angels

2* Washington Nationals RL +105

2* Los Angeles Dodgers -110

2* Detroit Tigers -130

1* Pittsburgh Pirates -175

1* Cincinnati Reds -130

1* Seattle Mariners -145

1* Los Angeles Angels -160

1* New York Mets -130

1* Under 7.5 Texas Rangers/New York Mets

1* Over 11 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies

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Sports Cash System

Play of The Day

MLB

Colorado Rockies +107 over the Los Angeles Dodgers

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UNDER Umpire Streakers

Another RARITY: OVER OVER

1 Unit #907 MIL/CIN Over 8 +100 Conroy 9 Over/1 Under L10gms 90%


UNDER Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #901 MIA/STL Under 7.5 -125 Fagan 3 Over/7 Under L10gms 70.0%

1 Unit #917 SEA/CWS Under 7 -115 Hickox 4 Over/9 Under L13gms 69.2%

1 Unit #929 TX/NYM Under 7.5 -125 Eddings 3 Over/12 Under L15gm 80.0%

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Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Washington Nationals -200

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DOC'S SPORTS

World Cup Soccer

8 Unit Play: Take Argentina (-0.5, +110)

We are betting that Argentina will win in regulation time. If they lose or if extra time is needed then this is a losing bet.


4 Unit Play: Take Netherlands (-1.5, +150)

We are betting that the Dutch are going to win by two or more goals.