7-8-14

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Indiana at Tulsa

The Fever head to Tulsa tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Indiana is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

TUESDAY, JULY 8 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 110.295; Atlanta 116.883 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 161 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 156 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+9); Over

Game 653-654: Indiana at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.913; Tulsa 111.818 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 149 Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 3; 154 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under

Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.469; Minnesota 119.525 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8; 153 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 161 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4); Under

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Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, July 8, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Say what you want about interleague play, but it at least occasionally gives us a possible glimpse at a World Series matchup. That’s the case Tuesday when the Dodgers begin a two-game series in Detroit. The Dodgers are the +200 favorites at Sportsbook.ag to win the NL pennant, while the Tigers had been AL favorites most of the year but have been passed by Oakland in the wake of the stunning trade the A’s made over the weekend (more on that later this week). Here’s a look at the Dodgers-Tigers matchup and four other interesting games.

Dodgers at Tigers (-121, 8.5)

Unfortunately we don’t get to see Clayton Kershaw face either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in a matchup of Cy Young winners in this series. Verlander (7-7, 4.71) goes Tuesday for Detroit, and he paid off for us nicely last time out against Oakland, allowing two runs over six innings in the victory. However, the Tigers haven’t won back-to-back Verlander starts since April. Only a few Dodgers have faced him, none with much success. Adrian Gonzalez is 2-for-14 with three strikeouts. Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-4, 3.08) starts for L.A. The Dodgers have lost his past two starts even though they’ve been quality outings. He is 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA on the road this season. No Tiger has ever faced him.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 7-1 in their past eight interleague starts against right-handed starters. Detroit is 6-1 in its past seven interleague games against lefties. The “over” is 5-0 in Detroit’s past five.

Early lean: This total should be a run lower, so jump on the “under” at -105.



Blue Jays at Angels (-143, 8)

Looking for the next team to make a big trade? I’d put money down if such a prop existed on the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring third baseman Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres. The Jays are going all-in to win the AL East this season (they were heavy after the Cubs’ Jason Hammel), and now they need a bat after losing AL MVP candidate Edwin Encarnacion for 2-4 weeks with a strained quadriceps, a huge blow. He’s hitting .277 with 26 home runs and 70 RBIs. Toronto might expand the deal to get a Padres starting pitcher as well. R.A. Dickey starts for them Tuesday in Anaheim. Dickey (6-8, 4.10) hasn’t gotten a win since June 4. He’s 1-6 with a 4.41 ERA on the road this season. It’s lefty Tyler Skaggs (4-4, 4.16) for the Halos. They have lost his past four starts. He just returned from a month or so on the DL last time out, allowing two runs in 7.2 innings against the White Sox. Skaggs pitched in Toronto on May 10, allowing two earned and four hits in eight innings, one of his better starts of the season.

Key trends: The Jays have lost seven straight against lefties. The Angels are 11-1 in their past 12 at home against right-handers.

Early lean: Toronto clearly struggles against lefties as it is, and now the Jays’ biggest right-handed bat is out. Take the Angels at +155 on the runline.



Royals at Rays (+105, 7.5)

I said on Friday that the Rays might start a sell off if they were swept over the weekend in Detroit, but they won three of four and have won 10 of 12 overall. Now they might keep David Price, especially as they get a key rotation piece back Tuesday in Jeremy Hellickson. He made six minor-league rehab starts off January elbow surgery. His return moves Erik Bedard to the bullpen. Hellickson struggled last season with a 5.17 ERA but was excellent in his two-plus seasons before that, winning the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Award. Billy Butler is a career .643 hitter off him in 14 at-bats. Lefty Jason Vargas starts for Toronto. Vargas (8-3, 3.32) blanked the Twins over seven innings last time out. He faced the Rays on April 7 and allowed just a run and four hits over eight innings. Ben Zobrist is 11-for-26 with a homer and six RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Royals have lost five straight Game 2s of a series. Tampa is 5-1 in its past six against lefties.

Early lean: Rays are nice value as a home dog here.



Cubs at Reds, Game 1 (-215, 7)

You have to love those random mid-week afternoon games, and the opener of a doubleheader in Cincinnati is just that. The Reds are the biggest favorites on the board by far behind All-Star Johnny Cueto. He might not pitch in the game, however, because he’s scheduled to start on Sunday as well. Too bad as Cueto (8-6, 1.99) might be in line to be the NL starter as he leads the league in innings and WHIP and is No. 2 in ERA and strikeouts. Cueto lost last time out, allowing three runs and seven hits over seven innings in San Diego. He hasn’t faced the Cubs this season. Anthony Rizzo struggles against him, going 1-for-12. All-Star Starlin Castro is 7-for-30 off Cueto. No current Cub has even gone yard off him. Former Red Travis Wood, perhaps the best-hitting pitcher in baseball, starts for the Cubs. Wood (7-6, 4.62) lasted just 3.2 innings last time out against Boston. He has a 6.16 ERA in nine road starts. One guy he won’t have to worry about is Joey Votto, who appears headed for the DL with a strained left quad.

Key trends: The Cubs are 5-1 in Wood’s past six road starts. The over is 6-2 in his past eight on the road. The under is 4-0 in Wood’s past four against the Reds.

Early lean: Wood can keep this close — I’d go Cubs at -110 on the runline as they will lose by just one.



Giants at A’s (-128, 6.5)

Here’s another potential World Series matchup, although I don’t have a lot of faith in the Giants unless they make a deal or two. Should San Francisco have a lead in the top of the ninth, the team’s new closer is Santiago Casilla, so says Manager Bruce Bochy. He replaces the recently demoted Sergio Romo. Casilla has a terrific 1.08 ERA and three saves. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since mid-May. Lefty Madison Bumgarner starts for the Giants. Bumgarner (9-6, 3.09) has been off his past two starts, allowing five runs in each, both losses. Sonny Gray starts for Oakland. Gray (8-3, 3.08) held the Blue Jays to a run over seven innings last time out, the third straight of his starts that Oakland has won. Gray has never faced the Giants.

Key trends: The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner’s past five Tuesday starts. The A’s are 8-2 in their past 10 against a lefty.

Early lean: I’d bet on Oakland all week as the players are going to be pretty jacked up about that big trade.

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Nolasco's tight elbow a concern for Twins
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

SEATTLE -- The elbow tightness that hampered righty Ricky Nolasco throughout Sunday's two-inning performance against the New York Yankees could be more serious than originally thought.

Nolasco met with manager Ron Gardenhire before Monday's game at Seattle, at which time the Twins decided to send him back to Minnesota for a Tuesday check-up with team doctors.

The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Nolasco had been battling elbow soreness since spring training but that he had battled through the discomfort without saying much to the team.

Nolasco's 5-7 record and 5.90 ERA are nowhere near what the Twins expected when they signed the 31-year-old starter to a four-year contract worth a franchise-record $49 million in the offseason. He was coming off a 2013 season that included a 13-11 record and a 3.70 ERA with the Marlins and Dodgers.

"Velocity was down," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony told The Minneapolis Star Tribune on Monday. "He hasn't been as effective with his pitches. He hasn't had the same command that he's had. Basically, everything he's done this year is nothing like the reports we had, or he's not pitching the same way he did last year."

Nolasco's next scheduled start would be Friday, but the results of the upcoming medical tests could put that appearance in jeopardy. Nolasco has been a dependable starter during his career, having made at least 26 starts in each of the past six seasons.

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Rays, Royals love the Over
Stephen Campbell


When the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals meet, you can expect runs to come in bunches. In the last 11 matchups between the two clubs, the Over is 8-2-1. They'll face off again at Tropicana Field Tuesday.

Sportsbooks currently list the Royals as slight -115 road faves with an O/U of 7.5.



Under sizzling with Braves on the road

In the Atlanta Braves' last nine road games through Monday, the Under is a red-hot 8-1. Atlanta renews acquaintances with the New York Mets at Citi Field Tuesday.

The Braves are presently a -139 fave with a total of seven, per Sportsbooks.



Cueto, Wood trending opposite ways

When the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs renew acquaintances in the first game of a double header Tuesday, there are a few pitching trends that need your attention. Travis Wood will be on the mound for the Cubs while Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds.

In Cueto's last six starts against the Cubbies, the Reds are 5-1. In Woods' last seven outings against the Reds, the Cubs are 1-6.

Sportsbooks currently list the Reds as heavy -192 faves with a total of seven.


Nuno to make D-Backs debut Tuesday

Newly acquired pitcher Vidal Nuno will make his first start for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field Tuesday. In 14 starts this season with the New York Yankees, the second-year pitcher is 2-5 with a 5.42 ERA.

Sportsbooks currently have the D-Backs as slight -107 faves with a total of 9.5.

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Indians acquire OF Dickerson
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE


The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Chris Dickerson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the team announced Monday.

The Indians selected his contract from the Triple-A Columbus roster and also designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment.

Dickerson has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the New York Yankees (2011-12) and Baltimore Orioles (2013).

Dickerson, 32, has appeared in 314 major league games over six seasons from 2008-13 with four different teams since debuting with the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. He was the Reds' 16th-round pick in 2003 out of Nevada-Reno.

Dickerson signed with the Pirates organization in January and has spent the entire season to date with Indianapolis, hitting .309 (73-for-236) with seven home runs and 30 RBIs and in 65 games.

Dickerson will be in uniform Monday night when the Indians take on the Yankees.

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Tuesday's WCup Semis
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Brazil vs. Germany (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The first semifinal of the 2014 World Cup sees the hosts, Brazil, face Germany at the Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. It’s a fascinating looking contest. If you were told that this would be a semi-final before the tournament, you would expect Brazil to be favourites to qualify at around 4/7. Instead, for a variety of reasons, Luis Felipe Scolari’s men find themselves 21/20 outsiders with Sportsbooks to get to the final. Germany, who defeated a listless France in the quarters, are 4/5.

The main reason for the shift in the market are Brazil’s injuries: Thiago Silva, the captain and the world’s best centre-back, is out with suspension. Replacing him will be Bayern Munich’s Dante, and able deputy. The captain’s armband will move to David Luiz, who should shine in that role. He seems to exhibit much more responsibility in the national shirt than at club level. He is a big-hearted player, and is a natural leader. Thiago Silva’s absence will not have a huge effect.

Not so the absence of Neymar. The Brazilian Golden Boy is out of the tournament after breaking a vertebra in his back. It is an injury that has shocked the country and the World Cup. He has been by far and away Brazil’s most dangerous attacking player, scoring four goals, and being at the centre of most good things Brazil have done going forward. They are not used to playing without him.

Who will replace him? Well, there are three options: first is a straight swap, in the form of either Willian or Bernard. This would keep Brazil in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Oscar shifting inside. Second, there is the possibility of Ramires coming in as a more defensive option, as happened when the Chelsea man played instead of Hulk against Mexico. Third, there is the possibility of Fred missing out. He is mainly in the team because he combines well with Neymar. Apart from that, however, he offers little.

I think the bookmakers have got the prices wrong here. Here are my reasons why.

Brazil are at home. It seems obvious, but it’s easy to forget this in a World Cup. The importance of the home crowd has been immense for the Seleção in the two last 16 games, where they saw off hugely talented opponents in Colombia and Chile. Scolari is a master man-manager, and he is excellent at taking the pressure off the players, while also getting maximum effort out of them. This team is being carried on a tidal wave of national fervour, and the atmosphere inside the Mineirão will be incredible. The Brazilian players are not fazed by the pressure, and so far they have come through their big tests.

Is Germany really that good?

This is a team that went off as outsiders against France, who only really played well once, against Switzerland. Germany have also only really played well once. And that game, a 4-0 win over Portugal, was decided by a dodgy penalty and a stupid red card. They could only draw with Ghana, before a strange 1-0 win over a USA side who still qualified with a defeat. They needed extra time to beat Algeria, who were 2000/1 for the tournament. In the quarters, they didn’t have many chances, and were grateful that France’s momentum had been lost by taking their foot off the pedal in a 0-0 group stage draw with Ecuador.

People will say, ‘but it’s the Germans, they always find a way’. No they don’t. This is not the same Germany as we saw in the seventies and eighties; this team has a history of messing up big semifinals. They were nullified by Spain in 2010, they lost as favourites to Italy in 2006 and 2012. For a team with such consistency as Germany, it is regarded as an aberration there that they haven’t won a major tournament since 1996.

Their defence does not inspire huge confidence. They often play with two centre-backs, Benedikt Höwedes and Jerome Boateng, at full-back, while Per Mertesacker, for all his good qualities, is extremely slow at centre-back. Manager Joachim Löw

has a tendency to pick too many number 10s and to skimp on width, which was their problem in the first half against Algeria. Overall this team is just not as good as at Euro 2012.

So for me 21/20 on Brazil looks the bet. In the 90 minute market, they are 197/100 to win, with Germany 3/2. A draw is 11/5.

Let’s have a quick look at the top goalscorer market, where I’m quite partial to Hulk at 13/2. He had two excellent chances early on against Colombia and, with Neymar’s injury, the Zenit St. Petersburg man will get more responsibility. He may even play up front. David Luiz has scored twice already this tournament and is a threat from set-pieces - one of Brazil’s great strengths. However this seems to have been adequately factored into his quotes of 16/1.

For Germany, Thomas Müller is the favourite at 9/2. He has four goals so far this tournament, and will probably return to his centre-forward role in Belo Horizonte, after dropping back into attacking midfield as Miroslav Klose came in against France.

This is all set to be one of the great World Cup matches. There are so many different back-stories, so many different angles to look at the game that it will keep you rapt. The winner is 90 minutes from the trophy.

Top Bet: Brazil to qualify at 21/20

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -1.5 units )

WNBA | LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more
76-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at ATLANTA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 average 3PT shooting team (30-35%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=30%)
92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY YANKEES at CLEVELAND
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), playing on Tuesday
31-14 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 22.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 65-27 (+36.4 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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MLB

'On the rebound'

Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles play the second of a four-game home/home Interleague set. Nationals taken behind the woodshed spanked 8-2 in the opener look to even the series handing the ball to Doug Fister. Nationals are in good hands. Fister 7-2 on the campaign with a 2.93 ERA over 11 starts (8-3 TSR) heads to the mound 2-0 the past three with a smart 2.57 ERA. The right-hander also commands an impressive 9-3 team start record in the month of July. This being a home game should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs on the Nationals and Fister. The hurler is undefeated at Nationals Park posting a perfect 5-0 mark with a 2.31 ERA. Expect Fister to find a way to slow-down red-hot Orioles as Nats move to 14-4 as home chalk following a loss the previous night.

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Cappers Access

Cubs +115 (GM#2)

Mariners -125

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EZWINNERS

5 STAR SELECTION

Game: Brasil vs. Germany

Brazil -$106

(Risking $530 to win $500) (To advance to Championship. Extra Time and Shoot-outs Included)


3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers


(977) Los Angeles Dodgers -$103

(Risking $309 to win $300) (Action)

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 7.5 Kansas City Royals/Tampa Bay Rays

50* Oakland Athletics -145

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway


San Diego Padres Even

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GiLzTips

[976] WAS/BAL – UNDER 8 (-105) *S*

[974] SEA/MIN – UNDER 7 (+105) *S*

[957] STL/PIT – OVER 7.5 (-110) = [2]

[982] CIN/CHC – UNDER 7 (+100) = [2] (Game 1)

[960] Rockies ML (-110) = [2]

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Golazoprediction


Match: Brazil – Germany

BET: Over 2 AH

Odds 1.88