7-10-14

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This pitcher is churning out high totals
Stephen Campbell

Texas Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis has been an Over machine recently, evidenced by seven of his past eight starts going above the total. Lewis gets the nod for Thursday's meeting with the Los Angeles Angels in Arlington.

The Halos are presently -125 faves with a total of 10, per BetOnline.com.

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Brewers lights out with this ump behind home plate
Stephen Campbell

Jeff Kellogg will be calling balls and strikes for Thursday's matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies which should put a smile on the faces of Brewers backers. In their last 10 games with Kellogg behind the dish, the Brewers are 8-2.

The Brew Crew are currently heavy -200 home faves with an O/U of 8.5, per BetOnline.com.

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Citi Field an Over haven as of late
Stephen Campbell

Smart money has been on the Over at Citi Field as of late. Six of the New York Mets' last seven games in The Big Apple have gone over the total. The Metropolitans host the Atlanta Braves Thursday evening.

BetOnline.com currently has the game listed as a pick 'em with an O/U of 7.5.

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Reds owning Cubs with Bailey on the mound
Stephen Campbell

The Cincinnati Reds and pitcher Homer Bailey have been dominating the Chicago Cubs as of late. In Bailey's last 11 starts versus the North Siders, the Reds are a blazing hot 10-1. They'll have the opportunity to make that 11-1 when the veteran takes the mound against the Cubbies at Great American Ball Park Thursday.

BetOnline.com currently has the Reds as -173 faves on the moneyline with a total of eight.

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Bucs struggling mightily at Busch Stadium
Stephen Campbell

Busch Stadium has not been kind to the Pittsburgh Pirates recently. The Bucs are just 2-10 in their last 12 trips to St. Louis, but they'll have an opportunity to improve that record Thursday against the Cardinals.

BetOnline.com currently lists the Cards as -125 favorites on the moneyline with a total of eight.

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Three slumping MLB bets to beware before the All-Star Break
By JASON LOGAN

The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the MLB All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.

Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and probing media and may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.

Here are three teams to be wary of in the final week of MLB betting action before the All-Star Break.

Boston Red Sox (39-51, -2257 units)

Whatever you do with Boston after the All-Star break is another story. The Red Sox are a second half team, as evidenced by their late push and World Series run last year. But right now, the BoSox stink and can’t wait for a break from the unforgiving fan base and blood-thirsty media in Beantown.

Boston, which has lost four in a row and seven of its last 10 heading into Wednesday, closes a home series with the White Sox before traveling to Houston for three games before the break. And even though they’ve been crap, expect the Red Sox to carry a big price tag against a Houston team that is showing some fight.

Texas Rangers (38-52, -1639 units)

Speaking of the Astros putting up their dukes, the Rangers were on the other end of that one-two punch, losing back-to-back games to Houston to start this week. Texas has been plagued with injuries all season and hasn’t been the same since Prince Fielder went down in late May, going 9-17 in June and limping out to a 1-7 start to July.

The team swallowed its gum when ace Yu Darvish was struck in the head by a line drive while practicing in the outfield Tuesday. The club’s philosophy for the rest of the week is “just survive”. That should have them dreaming of poolside loungers and room service - not an upcoming four-game series with the Angels. If any team needs a break, it’s the Rangers.

San Francisco Giants (49-41, +432 units)

The Giants have had some tough sledding recently, with a schedule that featured home series against Cincinnati and St. Louis and a current interleague set across the bay in Oakland. That stretch, coupled with a floundering offense, has handed Giants backers a 3-7 skid in the club’s last 10 games. San Francisco is counting down the days to the break.

Part of that has to do with the health of key bats Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan. Sandoval returned to the lineup after suffering s bruised elbow this weekend while the other two take steps toward recovery. The Giants have their sights on a second-half push, not the remaining games versus Oakland and Arizona before the All-Star hiatus.

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Making dollars - and sense - out of baseball betting's information overload
By MARC MELTZER

Sports betting can be easy for some people. They just pick their favorite team and bet. That’s not how I roll.

In all sports, there are variables like weather, special situations, home or road, injuries on so on. Over the years, baseball has one-upped the data and information available by all of the other sports. The back of an old baseball card will show you that it’s always been a game with plenty of statistics, but there’s been an information explosion.

Baseball statistics started to change about 20 years ago and have really blossomed with the rise in popularity of sports betting and fantasy sports. The information available to bet on baseball is both exciting and mind numbing.

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that fatigue sets in for anyone that bets a lot of MLB games. That fatigue is in large part because of the sometimes overwhelming amount of information available.

I’ve already gone through the basics of my methodology in picking games. It may be more complex than what you go through, but it may not. Today, I wanted to look at some of the specific information that I use and why I use it.

Trends

Current trends play more of a role in my baseball betting than any other sport. The length of the baseball season lends itself to trends being more prevalent than other sports. Historical trends may matter in football or basketball but they really don’t seem to have much of an effect on baseball games. Current and recent trends are a different story.

At the time I’m writing this, favorites have won 55.43 percent of the games while underdogs have won only 44.57 percent of the games. Zooming into this information shows that home teams have won only 51.27 percent of the games while road teams have won 48.73 percent of the games.

This shows me that there was some value on the underdogs in the past month. My betting accounts show the same thing. You can find this and more information on the Covers Baseball trends page.

My trend watching continues into mainstream baseball information. Every day before I bet, I look to see how teams have done in their past 10 games. There’s nothing scientific here but I like when teams I bet aren’t on a cold streak.

It may or may not affect certain bets. This information is available anywhere but I like to get it from MLB.com. It gives me an excuse to see what’s happening in mainstream baseball media.

Data

I study starting pitchers more than any other position in baseball. They have the ball on every play of the game. In fact, there’s no game without a pitcher. I hate pitchers but they’re the backbone of my baseball handicapping. They’re also the bane of my existence in fantasy baseball.

I always start with two mainstream fantasy data points. The first thing I check is the batting average against a pitcher. If that looks good, I move to WHIP (Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched). These simple data points let me know whether or not I want to move forward looking at a particular pitcher. The lower the BAA and WHIP, the more likely I’ll dig deeper into those games.

My next step is to make sure that the pitchers keep the ball in the park. High ground-ball rate and low home run rates are my friends. After drilling through some other pitcher data, I’ll check the strikeout percentage. Pitchers that strike guys out and keep the hit balls on the ground increase their chances that they’ll either be on my betting ticket, fantasy team or both.

Situational

The last things I look at are ballpark and weather. This information comes in handy when I’m considering totals. Hazy, hot and humid days often lead to juicy fly balls. If there’s a fly-ball pitcher on the mound, I’m more apt to consider an Over bet. At the same time, the Bookmakers track this information and may adjust for it. There is a nifty iPhone app called Home Run Weather that will give you this information for any game at any time.

I love baseball and I love all of the data I can dig through to make educated bets. When it comes to useless and random trends that have no real affect on bets, football takes the cake. I cringe when I see something like the Jets are 99-0 on Sunday’s where the quarterback’s grandmother makes instant coffee on the Thursday before the game.

I’m thankful that baseball isn’t as popular as football so that I can easily avoid the noise and simply find situations, trends and data points that are meaningful – and profitable.

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Today's MLB Picks

LA Angels at Texas

The Angels head to Texas to open a series against a Rangers team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. LA is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick; LA Angels (-135). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 10 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hendricks) 14.527; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.190 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-180); Over

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.167; Milwaukee (Garza) 14.077 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-210); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+180); Under

Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 15.715; NY Mets (Colon) 14.650 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.199; St. Louis (Miller) 16.140 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over

Game 959-960: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 12.138; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.099 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 4; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-265); 6 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-265); Over

Game 961-962: Chicago White Sox at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.942; Boston (Lester) 14.834 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under

Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 15.942; Cleveland (House) 14.485 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Under

Game 965-966: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.934; Texas (Lewis) 14.366 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 10 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Over

Game 967-968: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 16.828; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.305 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pino) 14.778; Seattle (Wilhelmsen) 13.692 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 971-972: Oakland at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 16.456; San Francisco (Hudson) 15.568 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.286; Baltimore (Chen) 11.650 Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Minnesota at Tulsa

The Shock play host to a Minnesota team that is coming off an 83-72 win over Los Angeles and is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU victory. Tulsa is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 10 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 110.260; Indiana 112.139 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 155 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 150 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+5 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: Minnesota at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.766; Tulsa 110.745 Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 1; 160 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 165 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3 1/2); Under

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Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Nationals at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
WSH: Gonzalez (6-4, 3.52 ERA)
BAL: Chen (8-3, 4.12 ERA)

Series recap: The Nationals rebounded from Monday’s 8-2 extra-innings loss to the Orioles by cruising past Baltimore last night, 6-2 as short underdogs. The victory by Washington was just the second in the last seven meetings with Baltimore dating back to 2012, as the Nats last won at Camden Yards prior to Wednesday on June 23, 2012.

What to watch for: Since coming off the disabled list, the Nationals have won each of Gonzalez’s four starts, while the southpaw hasn’t allowed a run in his last three outings. The Orioles have alternated wins and losses in each of Chen’s last eight trips to the mound, coming off a victory over the Rangers as a home underdog in his previous start.

Braves at Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Harang (8-6, 3.67 ERA)
NYM: Colon (8-7, 4.04 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets extended their season-high winning streak to four games after taking care of the Braves, 4-1 as +110 underdogs. Since knocking off Atlanta in walk-off fashion in the series opener, the Mets have outscored the Braves in the last two victories, 12-4, while winning each of the past four home meetings with their NL East rivals.

What to watch for: The Braves have won each of Harang’s last three starts, while tossing seven no-hit innings in a 6-0 triumph at Citi Field over the Mets in mid-April. The Mets have cashed the ‘over’ in five of Colon’s past seven trips to the mound, while splitting a pair of starts made by the veteran right-hander against Atlanta this season.

Pirates at Cardinals – 7:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Volquez (7-6, 3.88 ERA)
STL: Miller (7-7, 4.15 ERA)

Series recap: The Cardinals go for the sweep of the Pirates on Thursday after capturing each of the first three games at home. St. Louis won the first two contests thanks to walk-off homers, while winning in more conventional fashion on Wednesday. The Redbirds own a 7-5 record against the Pirates this season, including a 5-1 mark at Busch Stadium.

What to watch for: After losing five consecutive starts against Pittsburgh dating back to last season, Miller has come out victorious in his last two outings versus the Pirates. However, the Cards have dropped each of Miller’s last four starts overall, while posting a 1-4 record in the past five home outings. The Pirates have done a solid job of rebounding off a three-game losing streak, putting together a 6-1 mark in this situation.

Tigers at Royals – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
DET: Smyly (4-8, 3.89 ERA)
KC: Guthrie (5-7, 4.02 ERA)

Series recap: Kansas City finished off a series victory at Tampa Bay after rallying for a 5-4 triumph on Wednesday as +110 underdogs. The Royals grabbed four of six meetings from the Rays this season, while improving to 4-2 in the past six road series finales. Following a shaky first inning on Tuesday against the Dodgers, the Tigers rolled past Los Angeles for a pair of home victories, while outscoring them, 18-1 in the final 17 innings.

What to watch for: Detroit won the first five matchups this season with Kansas City, but the Royals grabbed three of four at Comerica Park from the Tigers in mid-June. The Royals have stumbled to a 3-6 record the last nine home contests, but Kansas City is 4-1 in Guthrie’s past five outings. Smyly has struggled lately with the Tigers owning a 2-7 record in his last nine trips to the mound, but the southpaw tossed seven innings of two-hit ball in a 9-2 rout at Kansas City in April.

Padres at Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
SD: Despaigne (2-0, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Kershaw (10-2, 1.85 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Dodgers were swept for the first time this season, albeit in a two-game series at Detroit. Los Angeles squandered a 5-0 lead in Tuesday’s 14-5 setback at Comerica Park, while the Dodgers fell behind early in Wednesday’s 4-1 defeat as a short ‘dog. The Padres dropped two of three games to the struggling Rockies at Coors Field, while scoring just four runs in the final two defeats.

What to watch for: Since the start of June, the Dodgers are a perfect 7-0 with Kershaw on the mound, while the former Cy Young winner hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past four starts. The Padres are making their first trip to Chavez Ravine this season, looking to improve on a 2-4 record against their division rivals. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the first six meetings, while San Diego is 13-4 to the ‘under’ in the last 17 games overall.

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MLB

'Division Road Dogs'

Because hitters tend to see fewer left-handed starters than right-handed ones they often don't have the same success against these southpaws. Always in the hunt for a baseball betting angle it peaked the interest to see how clubs fared as road underdogs with a left-handed starter. Digging into our trusty MLB Betting Database revealed interesting betting nuggets. So far this season road underdogs sending out a port-side hurler won 43.7% of the games (98-126) but lost -$38 at the betting window. However, have the clubs in a divisional contest the results improved to a 47.5% winning clip (47-52) with the teams cashing +$882 worth of tickets. What really got the juices flowing was the next query looking at divisional road underdog with a lefty following a team divisional road loss the previous game. These pooches won 27-of-48 (56.3%) stuffing +$1280 into betting accounts. While there's no guarantee that left-handed divisional road underdogs will perform as well the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth following, especially if the club is off a division road loss the previous day.

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Yankees hope Tanaka, Beltran injuries don't linger
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

CLEVELAND -- The only good news for the New York Yankees on Wednesday was their 5-4, 14-inning win over the Cleveland Indians. The rest of the day was one to forget, as the Yankees lost two key players.

Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka was placed on the 15-day disabled list early in the day due to right elbow inflammation. Then, during pregame drills, outfielder Carlos Beltran sustained a broken nose when a ball ricocheted off a batting practice screen and hit him in the face.

The loss of Tanaka is particularly devastating to the Yankees, who already have three starting pitchers on the disabled list: left-hander CC Sabathia, right-hander Ivan Nova and right-hander Michael Pineda. Tanaka, the rookie ace of the staff, is 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA, and he was headed for the All-Star Game. However, in his 5-3 loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, Tanaka gave up five runs on 10 hits, both of those season highs.

Tanaka was sent back to New York to undergo an MRI exam.

No decision was made on who would replace Tanaka in the rotation, but right-hander Chase Whitley, the winning pitcher in relief Wednesday, could be a candidate.

Beltran would like to forget the trip to Cleveland. He missed the first two games of the series due to swelling behind his right knee. He was going to be in the starting lineup Wednesday before the pregame accident.

"The ball hit the screen, bounced back and hit me in the face, in my nose," Beltran said. "It's just a fracture in two different areas. ... I feel good, my head feels good. I had a headache for the whole day, and now it's getting better, so hopefully (Thursday) it will get better and I could be back soon."

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MLB

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

The 'Over' has been a hot bet when Tigers southpaw Drew Smyly has pitched away from Comerica Park (6-2 O/U). Tigers take on Royals tonight in a series that has produced three 'Over' this season in Kansas City.


Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

The 'Over' has been the right choice when Texas pitcher Colby Lewis has pitched recently, going 7-1 'Over' in his last eight starts. Lewis gets the ball in Arlington Thursday when his club takes on Los Angeles Angels platting a league second best 4.91 runs/game.

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at INDIANA
Play On - Home favorites (INDIANA) revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

WNBA | MINNESOTA at TULSA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after scoring 80 points or more
77-38 since 1997. ( 67.0% | 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | MINNESOTA at TULSA
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (TULSA) vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )