7-11-14

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Today's CFL Picks

Winnipeg at Montreal

The Alouettes play host to a Winnipeg team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Friday games. Montreal is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 11 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (7/9)

Game 121-122: Winnipeg at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 103.920; Montreal 108.268 Dunkel Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Montreal by 2 1/2; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-2 1/2); Under

Game 123-124: Ottawa at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 105.813; Edmonton 116.487 Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 10 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Edmonton by 6 1/2; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-6 1/2); Over

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Behind The Bets

CFL Friday

2* Winnipeg Blue Bombers +2.5

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Game of the Day: CFL double header

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-2.5, 49.5)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers take their red-hot offence to Montreal on Friday to face the Alouettes. Winnipeg won its first two games at home, scoring a league-leading 81 points. The Alouettes' defence looked strong in their Week 2 home opener, but will have its hands full against Drew Willy and the Blue Bombers’ passing game.

Alouettes quarterback Troy Smith will need his team’s defence to be strong again unless he can begin throwing touchdowns. Willy is off to a flying start under centre for Winnipeg, completing 40-of-60 passes and throwing four touchdowns, but Montreal’s defensive line promises to be the toughest he has faced. Alouettes defensive end John Bowman recorded four sacks in Week 2, while defensive tackle Scott Paxson caught an interception and forced a fumble.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Als as 2.5-point home faves. The total opened 50.5 at most shops, but has dropped one point to 49.5.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-0): Running back Nic Grigsby is quickly becoming a star in Winnipeg, recording 251 combined yards (184 rushing) and three touchdowns. Willy is also working well with slotbacks Aaron Kelly and Nick Moore, who have received 283 of Willy’s 615 passing yards. Kick returner Aaron Woods leads the league in return yards with 287.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-1): Smith completed nine touchdown passes as a rookie in 2013, but has zero touchdowns, one interception and a 50 percent pass-completion rate through two starts in 2014. Linebacker Marc-Olivier Brouillette caught the second interception of his career in Week 2 - something he will expected to do more of in his expanded role within the defence. Running back Brandon Whitaker has 135 rushing yards and is on pace to have his best season since 2011.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Alouettes last six games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Montreal.
* Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Montreal.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are coming in on the Alouettes.



Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Eskimos (-6.5, 54.5)

The Ottawa Redblacks visit the Edmonton Eskimos on Friday looking for their first victory after letting their CFL debut slip away. Edmonton looks strong on offence and defence through two games but has yet to establish a running game. Ottawa stormed out of the gate in its first game before being outscored 19-7 in the second half and will need to play a full game against the Eskimos.

Veteran quarterback Henry Burris looks like he hasn’t lost a step with his new team, throwing for 241 yards and two touchdowns in his Redblacks debut. Burris will face an Edmonton defence that has recorded a league-high seven interceptions. Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly has better protection in front of him to start 2014 and it shows in his 68 percent completion rate and four touchdowns.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The Eskimos opened -6.5 and the total has also held at the opening number of 54.5.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-1): Running back Chevon Walker made the move to Ottawa from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats along with Burris and recorded 99 combined yards and two touchdowns in his debut. Defensive back Jerrell Gavins caught an interception in his CFL debut but was fined for a late and low hit on Winnipeg Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy. Defensive lineman Jonathan Williams matched a career-high with two sacks in his first Redblacks game.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (2-0): Defensive lineman Odell Willis was fined for a hit on Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Zach Collaros after replays revealed contact with Collaros’ neck. Edmonton signed former Alouettes running back Noel Devine in an effort to bolster its running game. Kicker Grant Shaw leads the league in kicking points with 25.

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Eskimos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in July.
* Over is 18-8-1 in Eskimos last 27 games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-nine percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing Edmonton.

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White Sox struggling against Tribe in Cleveland
Stephen Campbell

The Chicago White Sox have not been getting it done in Cleveland recently. The Sox have just one win in their last nine meetings with the Cleveland Indians in Ohio, but they'll have an opportunity to right the ship when the two clubs face off at Progressive Field Friday.

The Tribe is currently -185 faves on the moneyline with a total of eight, per BetOnline.com.

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These two teams love low totals
Stephen Campbell

Scorekeepers have had a light workload in recent meetings between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins. In the last 17 games between the two clubs, the Under is 13-2-2. The Mets and Marlins renew acquaintances at Citi Field Friday.

BetOnline.com currently has New York as -111 faves with an O/U of seven.

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Kuroda lights out on the Under vs. Orioles
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Under when in New York Yankees pitcher Hiroki Kuroda's starts against the Baltimore Orioles as of late, you've been collecting some fantastic profits. In the veteran's last nine outings against the O's, the Under is 8-0-1. Kuroda takes the mound when the Yanks visit Baltimore at Oriole Park at Camden Yards Friday.

BetOnline.com presently lists the Birds as slight -116 faves with a total of nine.

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Under trending with Blue Jays as underdogs
Stephen Campbell

In the Toronto Blue Jays' last nine games as underdogs, the Under is a sizzling 8-1. The Jays are presently listed as +121 road dogs against the Tampa Bay Rays for matchup Friday.

The Rays are currently -131 faves with a total of seven, per BetOnline.com.

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Under the hot bet with Wood on the road
Stephen Campbell

When Atlanta Braves pitcher Alex Wood pitches away from home, low-scoring games are the norm. In Wood's last six road starts, the Under is 5-1. He'll take the mound for the Braves when they visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field Friday.

BetOnline.com currently has the game as a pick 'em.

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MLB

National League
Braves-Cubs
Wood is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
Arrieta is 4-0, 0.89 in his last six starts.

Braves lost four of their last five games.
Cubs lost six of their last seven games.

Seven of ten Wood starts stayed under the total.

Nationals-Phillies
Zimmerman is 3-2, 1.26 in his last seven starts.
Philly lost last three Burnett starts (0-2, 4.50).

Washington won eight of its last eleven games.
Phillies won their last four games, but lost last four at home.

Six of last seven Zimmerman starts stayed under total.

Pirates-Reds
Pittsburgh won last five Locke starts (2-0, 2.63).
Latos is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.

Pirates lost four of their last five road games.
Cincinnati won five of its last six games.

Four of five Latos starts stayed under total.

Marlins-Mets
Miami won last ten Alvarez starts (3-0, 1.85 in last five).
Wheeler is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts.

Marlins are 5-8 in their last thirteen games.
Mets won four of their last five games.

Five of last six Alvarez road starts went over.

Cardinals-Brewers
Kelly was 1-1, 1.76 in three starts in April, before going on DL.
Gallardo is 2-1, 3.00 in his last six starts.

Cardinals won three of their last four games.
Milwaukee lost nine of its last ten games.

Five of last six Gallardo starts stayed under the total.

Padres-Dodgers
Hahn is 4-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
Haren is 1-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.

Padres lost five of their last six games.
Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

11 of last 12 San Diego road games stayed under.

Diamondbacks-Giants
Bolsinger is 0-5, 5.34 in his last five starts.
Lincecum is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts.

Arizona won three of its last four games.
Giants lost 15 of their last 19 home games.

Ten of last thirteen Arizona games stayed under.

American League
White Sox--Indians
Noesi is 2-2, 5.14 in his last six starts.
Kluber is 2-2, 1.24 in his last four starts.

White Sox won five of last seven on road, but lost last two.
Indians won six of their last nine games.

Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cleveland home games.

Bronx-Orioles
Kuroda is 2-3, 4.06 in his last six starts.
Gonzalez is 1-2, 4.40 in his last five starts.

Bronx Bombers won six of their last nine road games.
Baltimore won four of its last five games.

Nine of last twelve Bronx road games went over total.

Blue Jays-Rays
Buehrle is 0-5, 3.83 in his last six starts; Toronto scored 13 runs.
Archer is 1-0, 2.35 in his last couple starts.

Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine road games.
Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 15 games.

Four of last five Toronto games stayed under.

Angels-Rangers
Angels won last seven Richards starts (6-0, 1.45).
Tepesch is 1-4, 5.34 in his last six starts.

Angels won nine of their last eleven games.
Rangers lost 11 of their last 12 games.

14 of last 19 Texas road games went over total.

Red Sox-Astros
Lackey is 1-2, 10.93 in his last three starts.
Feldman is 1-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.

Red Sox lost six of last nine games, but won last two.
Astros won last three games, are out of last place in AL West.

Five of last seven Boston road games went over.

Tigers-Royals
Sanchez is 1-1, 7.00 in his last three starts.
Duffy is 3-3, 2.28 in his last seven starts.

Detroit won six of its last eight road games.
Royals lost seven of their last ten home games.

Five of last six Sanchez starts went over the total.

A's-Mariners
Samardzija is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
Hernandez is 7-1, 1.72 in his last eleven starts.

Oakland won seven of its last eight games.
Mariners lost their last three games.

Five of last six Hernandez starts stayed under.

Interleague games
Twins-Rockies
Johnson threw 4.1 shutout innings (106 PT) in his only start May 1.
de la Rosa is 3-0, 5.21 in his last three starts; Rockies scored 28 runs.

Twins won four of their last five road games.
Colorado is 4-9 in last 13 home games, but won last two.

Under is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Coors Field.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wood 5-10; Arrieta 3-12
-- Zimmerman 1-18; Burnett 6-19
-- Locke 3-7; Latos 0-5
-- Alvarez 5-18 (1 of last 9); Wheeler 6-18
-- Kelly 0-3; Gallardo 6-18 (4 of last 5)
-- Hahn 1-6; Haren 9-18 (6 of last 9)
-- Bolsinger 3-8; Lincecum 6-18

-- Noesi 3-13; Kluber 4-19
-- Kuroda 6-18 (1 of last 8); Gonzalez 4-14
-- Buehrle 4-18; Archer 4-18
-- Lackey 4-18; Feldman 4-15
-- Sanchez 4-15; Duffy 2-12
-- Samardzija 8-18; Hernandez 2-19
-- Richards 4-18; Tepesch 3-9

-- Johnson 0-1; de la Rosa 6-18

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Wood 4-6; Arrieta 8-4
-- Zimmerman 11-7; Burnett 9-10 (0-3 last 3)
-- Locke 5-2 (5-0 last 5); Latos 2-3
-- Alvarez 13-5 (won last 10); Wheeler 7-11
-- Kelly 1-2; Gallardo 9-9 (0-3 last 3)
-- Hahn 4-2; Haren 10-8
-- Bolsinger 1-7; Lincecum 11-7

-- Noesi 6-7 (1-4 last 5); Kluber 11-8
-- Kuroda 8-10 (3-1 last 4); Gonzalez 6-8
-- Buehrle 12-6 (1-5 last 6); Archer 9-9
-- Lackey 10-8; Feldman 6-9
-- Sanchez 8-7 (4-1 last 5); Duffy 5-7
-- Samardzija (Chi 3-14/A's 1-0); Hernandez 13-6
-- Richards 14-4 (won last 7); Tepesch 4-5

-- Johnson 0-1; de la Rosa 11-6

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Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day
Chicago Cubs +103 over Atlanta Braves

Rest of the Plays
Toronto Blue Jays +134 over Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners -125 over Oakland A's
Milwaukee Brewers -129 over St. Louis Cardinals

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Soccer Crusher

Athlone + Limerick UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Ireland

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CFL

Winnipeg (2-0) @ Montreal (1-1) -- First road game for Bombers after scoring 81 points in two home wins, when they averaged 10.2 yards/pass attempt. Montreal split its first two games, completing only 34-69 passes- they've lost four of last five games with Winnipeg, with visitor winning five of last six series games- Bombers won last three visits here, by 5-8-7. Alouettes ran ball for 203 yards in upset win over BC last week, with three takeaways (+2).

Ottawa (0-1) @ Edmonton (2-0) -- Eskimos have 10 taekaways (+6) in winning first two tilts, by 7-4 points, despite not leading either game at halftime. Edmonton covered only twice in last six games as a favorite. RedBlacks raced out to 21-7 lead in their first-ever game in Winnipeg last week, led 21-17 at half, lost 36-28, despite a +2 turnover ratio. Four of last six Edmonton games stayed under total. Home favorites are 4-1 vs spread in first two weeks this season.

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Brewers replace Estrada with Nelson in rotation
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

MILWAUKEE -- Before his team took the field to face Philadelphia on Thursday afternoon, Milwaukee Brewers manager Ron Roenicke was asked whether or not right-hander Marco Estrada would still make his scheduled start Saturday against the Cardinals.

Considering Estrada struggled lately, posting a 2-4 record and a 6.53 ERA in his last seven starts while giving up 10 of his MLB-leading 27 home runs, it was a logical question but one Roenicke wasn't going to answer.

"I won't comment on that," he said.

Hours after the Brewers melted down late for a 9-1 loss, their fifth in a row and ninth in their last 10 games, the question was answered as Milwaukee summoned right-hander Jimmy Nelson from Triple-A Nashville.

Nelson has been lights-out while waiting for his moment. In 17 games (16 starts), he is 10-2 with a 1.46 ERA and has struck out 114 in 111 innings of work.

In one spot start for the Brewers this season, Nelson threw five scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins, allowing five hits and three walks with six strikeouts.

With Nelson in the fold and slated to start Saturday against St. Louis' Adam Wainwright, the MLB ERA leader, Estrada, will move to the bullpen.

The Brewers' front office and coaching staff had been debating the move for a while, Roenicke said.

"We're in discussions all the time about this and what to do, and how do we improve," Roenicke said. "Not just with other people, but how do we improve internally with what we have?

"Sometimes you wait until the all-star break to do things. But when the timing calls for something to be done, you try to do it. If it makes sense right then, why wait on something? That's what we talk about all the time. We talk about what goes on in here, how guys are feeling right now, and do we need a change?"

To make room for Nelson on the roster, Milwaukee placed left-hander Wei-Chung Wang to the 15-day disabled list with tightness in his shoulder.

Wang, a 22-year-old Rule 5 pick out of the Pirates' organization last winter, has been used sparingly this season -- with little to show for it.

In 13 appearances, Wang allowed 21 earned runs in 17 innings of work, including six home runs.

As a Rule 5 pick, the Brewers are required to keep him on the 25-man roster all season or return him to Pittsburgh for $25K.

However, once players have been on the active roster for at least 90 days -- a threshold Wang crossed on June 27 -- the player can be placed on the disabled list without the team losing contractual control.

Milwaukee, though, will have to keep Wang on its active roster next season for as many days as he spends on the DL.

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MLB

'NL West rivals clash'

When Giants Tim Lincecum takes the mound against Michael Bolsinger and the Diamondbacks Friday evening the hurlers are coming at this game from opposite ends of the spectrum. Sports bettors will be quick to note that Lincecum, has been on fire riding a three game winning streak that began with his June 25 no-hitter followed by two outings of 1 run ball over 14 1/3 innings giving the hurler a sparkling 0.39 ERA over the span. On the other mound, his opponent heads to the hill winless in six attempts and has just one victory in eight starts (1-7 TSR). Playing San Francisco has been a risky proposition of late (8-21), though in this case the amount of supporting data in favor of Giants with Lincecum makes it much less risky. The Giants have won 12 of Lincecum's last 16 home starts, Giants have won 6-of-9 as a favorite opening a home series with the right-hander and have a 20-8 stretch vs divisional opponents with the hurler. The numbers add up well enough to conclude Giants are the right play.