7-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Cleveland/Detroit over 9

Cinn/NYY under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

majorleaguebaseball-tips

Match: Oakland Athletics(Gray) vs Baltimore Orioles(Gausman)
Selection: Oakland Athletics
Handicap: -1 AH
Odd: 1.85

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American-predictor

MLB Tip
TEX Rangers vs TOR Blue Jays
Blue Jays -1.5
2.15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Sunday, July 20


This could be the hottest betting stat of the summer

The Under went an impeccable 4-0 in the CFL's Week 4 schedule of games. The perfect week improved the season-to-date mark to 4-12 Over/Under.

It was a low-scoring week north of the border, with Edmonton and Winnipeg combining for 29 points, staying well under the closing total of 54.5 to get the week started Thursday. Elsewhere, Toronto and Ottawa combined for 35 (52.5), Hamilton and Calgary managed just 17 points (50.5) and Montreal and B.C. tallied 46 (49) coming the closest to going Over.

Week 5 action gets underway with the Edmonton Eskimos host the Calgary Stampeders Thursday. No lines are currently on the board for the Week 5 slate, but both Edmonton and Calgary have spotless records for Under bettors, going 0-4 and 0-3 respectively.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dodgers, Cards hook up

L.A. Dodgers (54-45) at St. Louis Cardinals (54-44)

First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Line and Total: Dodgers -165, Cardinals +155, Total 6.5

Two of the premier franchises in baseball right now, the Dodgers and Cardinals, square off in the conclusion of their three-game series on Sunday night.

The Dodgers came into the All-Star break winning six of 10 games to take a one-game lead in the NL West and securing the best record in the National League. The last series of their first half came at home against the Padres in which pitching dominated as they won 3-of-4 games. Los Angeles’ pitchers allowed just seven runs over the four contests and took each of the past two games by a score of 1-0. However, the Dodgers have lost each of the first two games to the Cardinals in this series, including Saturday's 4-2 defeat as a -150 favorite.

Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched a gem on Sunday (6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 K’s) and was backed by the sole RBI from All-Star OF Yasiel Puig (.309 BA). Puig was hot in his previous nine games before the break, going 11-for-36 (.305) with eight of his nine hits going for extra bases while adding 6 RBI and eight runs. The Cardinals sit just one game back of the Brewers in the NL Central race after winning five of their final seven games, all against divisional opponents. They scored 17 runs in the first two games of their series against the Brewers most recently, but failed to complete a sweep, as they were blown out 11-2 in the series finale.

2B Kolten Wong (.242 BA) has found his power stroke recently, going 7-for-22 (.318) with four home runs and 7 RBI in his past six contests. Possibly the best pitcher in the game, 26-year-old LHP Clayton Kershaw (11-2, 1.78 ERA), will start this game for L.A. as he goes toe-to-toe with 22-year-old Redbirds RHP Carlos Martinez (2-4, 4.43 ERA). The Dodgers will actually be happy to start the second half on the road, as they are 29-19 (.604) in away games coming into this series while St. Louis is a solid 27-20 (.574) at home. The matchup between these two clubs has been a close one over the past three seasons with Los Angeles holding a 15-13 edge overall while going just 4-7 at Busch Stadium. The first time these teams met this year, it was in L.A. and the Dodgers were clearly the better club, winning 3-of-4 games and outscoring the Cardinals 17-4.

There is certainly an argument -- and a very easy one at that -- to make for Clayton Kershaw being the best pitcher in baseball. He has been to four straight All-Star games and is already a two-time Cy Young Award winner at just 26 years old, and has a great shot at winning a third award in 2014. He has started only 14 games so far this season due to injuries early in the year, but has made them count as he is striking out 11.8 batters per nine innings while showing impeccable control (1.2 BB/9) and allowing just five home runs in 96.1 innings of work (0.47 HR/9). A solo homer is the only run he has allowed in his past five starts (41 IP), and he is 8-0 with an 0.74 ERA, 0.61 WHIP and 11.8 K/9 in eight starts since June 1.

But Kershaw has been rather average against the Cardinals over his career, going 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, but allowing just two homers in 81.1 IP (13 starts). 3B Matt Carpenter (5-for-16, 1 double, 1 RBI) and OF Matt Holliday (9-for-33, 1 RBI, 10 walks) have had some success against the ace, while SS Jhonny Peralta is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in the matchup. Coming into this series, the Dodgers bullpen has gone 7-16 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, while coming away with successful saves in 30-of-36 (83%) opportunities. Kenley Jansen (3.49 ERA, 27 saves) blew only three saves in the first half of the baseball season while striking out a solid 14.4 batters per nine innings and getting unlucky with batters hitting .391 BABIP.

Carlos Martinez has spent most of the season coming out of the bullpen, but injuries to some of the starters have forced St. Louis to plug him into the role he pitched in the minors and he has now started in his past six outings. As a starter, Martinez has gone 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while compiling a 29:14 K-to-BB ratio over 28.1 innings on the mound. He has not been able to give the bullpen much rest in his starts, going past the fifth inning just once, and was unable to reach that modest benchmark in his last outing, as he lasted only four innings while allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks with five strikeouts in a loss to Milwaukee.

Martinez has faced the Dodgers three times (2 starts) in his career, going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.90 WHIP, while striking out eight and walking six over 10 innings of work. He did pitch well against them earlier this year on June 27, but earned a no-decision after going 4.1 innings while giving up one run on six hits and three walks with four strikeouts.

Both OF Yasiel Puig and 2B Dee Gordon have been great against Martinez, combining to go 6-for-10, but OF Andre Ethier, OF Matt Kemp and 3B Juan Uribe are hitless in nine combined at-bats when facing him. The Cardinals’ relievers were solid in the first half of 2014, going 12-13 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, while saving 31-of-42 (74%) games. Trevor Rosenthal (3.50 ERA, 28 saves) has four blown saves on the year and has struck out 56 batters in 43.2 innings (11.5 K/9) while struggling mightily with his command (5.4 BB/9).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, July 20


Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado - Ques Sun

Tulowitzki left Saturday's game with a cramp in his thigh and is questionable to play Sunday against the Pirates.


Yasiel Puig, LA Dodgers - Ques Sun

Puig left Saturday's game after being hit by a pitch on his left hand. X-rays were negative and he is questionable to play Sunday against the Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CHICAGO CUBS at ARIZONA
Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ARIZONA) poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more
230-129 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.1% | 73.7 units )
31-22 this year. ( 58.5% | 5.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | SEATTLE at LA ANGELS
SEATTLE is 9-2 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in Road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was: SEATTLE (4.5) , OPPONENT (2.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | PORTLAND at ARIZONA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 110 with an excellent offense - averaging 6.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 8 or more yards/play in their previous game
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

ARENA | SAN JOSE at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) with a terrible defense - allowing 6.7 or more yards/play
134-197 since 1997. ( 40.5% | 84.6 units )
1-7 this year. ( 12.5% | -4.0 units )

ARENA | SAN JOSE at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under - Road teams against the first half total after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games
49-23 over the last 10 seasons. ( 68.1% | 23.7 units )
6-7 this year. ( 46.2% | -1.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'GIANT SWEEP'

San Francisco Giants look for the series sweep when they hook Tim Lincecum (9-5, 3.66 ERA) against Marlins' lefty Brad Hand (0-2, 5.26 ERA). Taking a road favorite can be a perilous road in baseball betting, but Giants with Lincecum appears to have enough in their favor to counteract such concerns. Giants have flourished with Lincecum of late as he's 4-0 allowing a single run over 30 1/3 innings of work. Giants have won seven of Lincecums' eight day starts this season and hit the field 13-4 with the hurler following a win the previous day. Miami hitting the skids losing six straight while averaging just 2.1 runs/game, Brad Hand on a 2-11 team start slide look for Giants to improve it's 12-3 record in Sunday games (6-1 on the road), 11-5 stretch in road day games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

The Pirates are looking to complete the three-game sweep this afternoon in Pittsburgh as they send lefty Jeff Locke to the mound against rookie Tyler Matzek and the Colorado Rockies. Locke has really pitched well this season and been the victim of some blown saves in the first half, while still sporting a solid 2.89 ERA. Matzek has been hit pretty hard, allowing 12 runs in his last three outings. The Rockies are 0-6 in Matzek's last six starts and an incredible 6-26 in their last 32 games following a loss. The Bucs are 8-2 in Locke's last 10 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and we think Locke takes care of business this afternoon and the Bucs get to Matzek early and often. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - PITTSBURGH PIRATES -1.5 (+115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon




Ben lee won on Saturday in MLB in the National League with the Diamondbacks -$145/Cubs.


For Sunday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Pirates -$170/Rockies.


Ben lee is 2-0 +$100 for Week Thirty Eight 176-200-5 -$2630


"Mr Chalk" is 52-36 -$142 for the 2014 MLB season.


All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Tampa Bay @ MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay -129 over MINNESOTA

(Risking 2.58 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Rays are scoring runs, they’re winning a lot of games recently and coming to the park has become fun again for this talented group that grossly underachieved in the first three months. Customarily, we’re not in favor of spotting a tag like this one but if this game were in Tampa, the Rays would be the same price (-180 or thereabouts) as many of today’s heavy chalk like Pittsburgh, Toronto and Atlanta. Furthermore, the Rays have a better road record than they do at home and they have a significant edge on the hill. There is still value in playing underpriced favorites and that applies here. Tampa has outscored the Twins 11-3 in winning the first two games of this series and it doesn’t get much easier than facing Kevin Correia. Pay no attention to Correia’s 2.90 ERA over his past five starts, as it was driven by extreme luck, which is revealed in his 5.44 xERA over that span. Over those five starts, covering 31 frames, Correia’s BB/K split was 10/10 and his strand rate was 83%. Correia rarely misses a bat. His swinging strike rate of 5% is one of the worst marks in the games for pitchers with 60 innings or more. Correia’s pitch-to-contact approach minimizes his value and really shows how thin his margin for error is. This is one of the worst starters in the game that will get into several jams every start. If he escapes them again, so be it.

By contrast, Chris Archer has 101 strikeouts in 113 innings to go along with a nice 48% groundball rate. In 39 career AB’s against Archer, current Twins’ batters have just one extra-base hit, which was a double. The other nine hits he were all singles. Archer made good on his pedigree in the 1H and it may have been an abbreviated coming out party. He already owns one of the top heaters in the game and if he's able maintain some of those control gains it's reasonable to project a second half season of ample Ks and an ERA close to 3. He’ll now face a laboring squad that has scored six times in their past four games.


Cleveland @ DETROIT

Cleveland +125 over DETROIT

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

The Indians are on a roll and that makes them very playable here at this price against Drew Smyly and especially after sweeping a DH yesterday. It was a much longer day for the Tigers than it was for the Tribe. The Indians have won four straight and has outscored the opposition over that span 23-9. Smyly's long-awaited transition from long-reliever/ lurking fifth starter in Detroit's bullpen to full-time starter finally materialized in May after Anibal Sanchez hit the DL. Reliever-to-starter transitions are always tricky to predict and Smyly is showing signs of trouble. After 15 solid IP in April (and one start), Smyly's first month as a full-time starter saw his control jump to 4.1 BB/9. He's been laboring through most of his starts, eclipsing 100 pitches in 9 of his past 10, despite never making it past the sixth inning in all but one of those 10 starts. His strikeout rate has held up relatively well (as has velocity), but its fallen from his 2013 elite level. His swinging strike rate has also dropped from 11% to 9%, which is closer to the league average. xERA is skeptical that Smyly is a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. A touch of strand % luck has been the difference. Smyly carries a 3.80 home ERA into this start but beware of this particular turn, as the Indians offense is on a nice roll (.794 OPS in July) and has hit Smyly well in the past (.866 OPS). Over his past 14.1 IP, Smyly has allowed 13 runs on 23 hits, which includes three balls that left the yard. No thanks to Smyly right now.


Baltimore @ OAKLAND

Baltimore +156 over OAKLAND

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)

Kevin Gausman has made just 7 starts this season and just 27 appearances (12 starts) over his career. With a career ERA of 4.60 and an ERA of 5.66 last season, Gausman’s stock isn’t nearly what it should be. Gausman entered 2014 as the #18 prospect in the minors and he certainly has the stuff and makeup to front a rotation. He’s an athletic pitcher (6’3, 190 lbs.) with a plus fastball, change-up, and command. He mixes his pitches nicely and can command all four, pounding strikes to all quadrants of the plate. His fastball, which can reach 99 MPH, shows excellent movement and he gets nice fading action on his change-up. His slider is becoming nasty with good depth and bite. Since being recalled on June 7, Gausman has made six starts and has allowed one earned run or less in five of them. What’s so remarkable about that is most of those innings occurred at home and Camden Yards is not a pitchers park by any stretch. In just 11 road innings, Gausman has a 0.79 ERA and a BAA of .220. Current A’s have 4 hits in 24 career AB’s against this future star. Buy low candidates do not get much better than Kevin Gausman.

The A’s are heavily favored here because Gausman’s stock is low and Sonny Gray’s is high. Gray deserves his billing because of his 2.79 ERA after 19 starts of which 16 of them have been of the pure quality variety. Gray threw just 64 major league innings last season (after his call-up) and has already thrown 126 this year. That’s the equivalent of a full season in the majors and he hasn’t missed a beat. However, Gray’s minor-league numbers didn't suggest this level of performance. And before you get too comfortable spotting -165 with him against a team like Baltimore, keep in mind that he has not allowed any HR in 87 IP with runners on base. He is the only pitcher in MLB that has kept the ball completely in the park with runners on (minimum 65 IP). Expect his ERA to rise closer to his 3.55 xERA once that regresses. The price on the O’s is too good to pass up on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R & R TOTALS
MLB Jul 20 '14
1:10p San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins
Take Over 7½
TOP MLB Over-Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power play wins

boston -140
tampa bay -140
chicago white sox -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LANG

10 Dimes Cincy Reds