7-20-14

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Diamond Trends - Sunday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Mariners are 0-13 (+$1,300) since August 08, 2009 as a dog after an extra inning win and it is not the first game of a series.


PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Jake Arrieta starts the Cubs are 8-0 since August 16, 2013 after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $1018.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Mets are 12-0-1 OU since May 11, 2005 on the road after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-10 since May 30, 2014 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1015 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 12-1 since August 17, 2011 as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits at home and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1085.

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DAVE ESSLER

Sunday Thoughts & Free Play

956 PIT (+145) vs 955 COL

Analysis: Two team ML parlay……

Pittsburgh (Locke -185) to LA Dodgers (Kershaw -170)

I am not a huge Locke fan, but without Tulowitzki (perhaps) and as poorly as Colorado is playing, I’ll take my chances. There’s an end game here, and that’s that if the Pirates do win this game, that we have huge options later. Taking the Cardinals at home, even the RL is cheap, or the ML and just taking profit. We’ll see what happens.


Other games:

The Fish have fallen on hard times, but they did make a valiant effort to come back last night. I still can’t wrap my head around Lincecum (paying that price on the road) but Brad Hand can go either way. With the total coming down (I do not agree) I would have to throw a bit on the Fish RL or use that in a parlay, because it’s not cheap.


The Brewers might be pressing a bit today, and Gallardo isn’t (IMO) as good as advertised. Gio has been pitching well enough to be -130 here, and inasmuch as you guys know I like the dogs, I can’t fade the Nationals here.


I don’t care how bad Kendrick can be, or who is or isn’t playing for the Phillies. Wood should not be -200 to anyone, so I would take the Phillies RL here.


I can’t touch the Mets/Padres game. I suppose I would have to take the Padres at home after yesterday, but that’s playing Russian Roulette no matter which way you go. I’d follow late money if it were telling enough.


Cubs meltdown last night and Trumbo back means I lean over in this one, in spite of the move down. I’m not a Collmenter fan, or a fan of either bullpen.


I really want to take the Rangers here. I don’t like Buerhle and the Rangers are SOMEWHAT better against LHP. Tepesch isn’t Darvish, but the Jays w/o Edwin and a couple others might be vulnerable here.


As badly as the Tigers have been playing, Smyly is the type of pitcher that could pose a problem for Cleveland. Not sure I’m ready to lay the price, but am not sure that it isn’t correct.


I just don’t like Jon Lester at any price. He’s just not the same, and even tho the Royals are better against RHP, Ventura is under valued now (he has been over valued) so I could make a reasonable case for the Royals RL.


I’d love to find a way to take the home dog that is the Twins, but I just can’t. That’s a game that has “pass” written all over it, although I’d consider the over if anything.


Skaggs does not need to be -160 here, I don’t care how Young has been on the road or against the Angels. Seattle RL or even ML a very possible play for us.


IMO clearly the value lies with the Orioles at that price. I can’t lay -160 (ever, really) and just don’t see laying the -1.5 with a home team that may be ahead by one and not bat in the ninth. Nothing more annoying. Perhaps under there.


The move to the Yankees is somewhat expected with the Reds injuries, but I couldn’t pass up Cueto at that number to have the Reds avoid another loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Play

vip-picks

BONUS Tips

Austria Vienne - Grodig

Tip: Austria Vienne -0.5, 1

Odds: 1,85

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

Free play - 971 TAM (-128) vs 972 MIN

Analysis: The Rays may not have accomplished what they have wanted to this year but this team is finally playing the way they can and in doing so they are scoring a lot of runs. Severe Pitching Mis-Match for this one and there is no reason to be fooled by the Twins starter who has been extremely lucky over his “Good” recent run. In addition he has not performed well here at Target field and while I don’t have those stats handy as I write these notes, they are pretty bad. Archer has been a charmer and he has a very good GB Ratio this year and the reason why his last 10 of 11 starts have featured NO DINGERS. Laying this price on the road is not my norm but doing it here is no so hard to do..
Biggest UNDER Umps going today are doing games at Miami 7-1 U/0, St Louis 4-10 U/0, Boston 3-13 U/o.
Notable OVER Ump at Washington with Campos at 6-0 O/U and 9.5 RPG.

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INSIDE VEGAS SHARP / CORY KLUGE

4 MLB Sharp Plays

Dodgers -180 ML

Colorado +173 ML

Miami +130 ML

Cubs +102 ML

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LiveWebPicks

Cleveland (Tomlin) +125

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GOODFELLA

Sunday MLB Team Total

PITTSBURGH PIRATES – OVER 4.5 RUNS (+100 )

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Greg Shaker

San Diego Under 6.5

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Dave Essler

Philly +1.5 -120

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Sunday card has 5* ESPN MLB Totals System and a big Early Blowout system that is undefeated since 2004. Saturday card cashes 2 of 3. Free Early MLB System Play below.


On Sunday the free MLB Play is on the SF. Giants. Game 951 at 1:10 eastern. Free Plays are now on a 13-2 run The Giants have Tim Lincecum going an he has a superb 0.42 era in his last 3 starts. He takes on B. Hand for Miami who has a lost 4 of his 5 starts with a 5.26 era. The Giants qualify in a powerful Road warrior system that has won 15 of 17 times long term. We are playing on road favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and they scored 5 or more runs with no errors, and their opponent scored 4 or less runs and had 10 or more hits. The Giants are looking for the sweep and have won 12 of 15 on Sunday and 4 of 5 as a road favorite in this range. Miami has hit the skids losing 6 straight and averaging under 2 runs the past week. Look for San Francisco to bring out the brooms today. Jump on and end the week big as the 5* Sunday night MLB ESPN Power total leads the card along with a huge Blowout system that wins by an average 6-2 score. Saturday card cashes 2 of 3. For the free play take the Giants. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top umpire for Under bettors at work Sunday
By ANDREW AVERY

Kerwin Danley, one of the top Under umpires in Major League Baseball, will be calling balls and strikes at Fenway Park as the Boston Red Sox host the Kansas City Royals Sunday.

Danley sports an Over/Under record of 3-13 in his games worked behind home plate, making him the top Under umpire with at least 10 games under his belt this season. Tony Randazzo (1-7 O/U) and Stu Scheurwater (0-1 O/U) have better percentages, but less than 10 games worked.

What's perhaps even more fascinating about his numbers is the 4.9 runs per game that cross the plate when he's calling balls and strikes.

The Sox will put Jon Lester on the bump while the Royals are scheduled to counter with Yordano Ventura. Books have slapped a total of 7.5 on this matchup and Danley is 1-7 O/U when the total is 7.5 on the season.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

MLB

3-Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 Cincinnati at New York (AL) (1:05 p.m. Sunday, July 20)

2-Unit Play. Take Under 8 Kansas City at Boston (1:35 p.m. Sunday, July 20)

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Steve Fezzik

MLB Total

956 PIT / 955 COL Under 8 Hilton

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Bestbetpick

Josh Daniels - 2* Mets

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Port port sports

tampa bay rays (-140)

under 8 kansas city royals @ boston red sox (-125)

detroit tigers (-130)