7-23-14

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Betting 101: Second half adjustments MLB bettors must make
By JASON LOGAN

Sports betting is Darwinism at its best. Adapt or die, especially when it comes to wagering on the second half of the MLB schedule.

The home stretch of the baseball calendar presents different challenges to MLB bettors than the first three and half months. Not only do you have to account for the wear and tear of a very long season, but things like motivation - or lack thereof - start to gain importance when the playoff picture comes into focus.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest baseball cappers to share how they adjust their strategy in the second half of the baseball season:

Don’t fall in love with stats

The first half of the baseball season has provided endless spread sheets, stuffed to the jock with valuable baseball betting information. But, once the schedule turns the corner, those stats might not be worth the paper they’re printed on.

What happened between April and July may not continue to happen in August and September. And that’s where you find value, betting on or against teams going against the grain.

A club like the Colorado Rockies was one of the best Over bets in the majors in the first half of the sked – averaging more than 10 total runs per game - but have gone just 3-10-3 O/U this month, including a 0-3-1 O/U count since the break. However, oddsmakers continue to set double-digit totals for Rockies’ games.

Covers Expert Sean Murphy loves to exploit these swings in the stats by finding inflated favorites – that did well in the first half of the schedule - and betting against the chalk in the second half.

“I'll strictly focus on playing underdogs from this point forward,” Murphy says. “We tend to see some seriously overvalued sides now that there's a large sample size of results to work with and preconceived notions of which teams rank among baseball's elite.”

Pricing pitchers

Starting pitchers are priority No. 1 when it comes to capping baseball. And these influential arms can make or break a wager during the Dog Days of Summer.

A starter that was successful in the first half of the calendar can run out of steam come the summer months, giving great value to the other side or the Over. Finding these windows of opportunity before the close is a perfect way to change up your game in the final months of the baseball season.

Covers Expert Will Rogers keeps a close eye on which pitchers overachieved in the first chunk of schedule and picks his spots when they fall from grace.

“The one positive about being this deep into the season is that we have enough information to know what pitchers may have gotten off to fraudulent starts and are now starting to regress some,” says Rogers. “An example is Mark Buehrle of Toronto, who looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball for a time. But over the last month or so, he has come back down to Earth.”

Buehrle had a 2.48 ERA and a 10-5 record in the first three months of the season but has since gone 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in July, allowing five runs through six innings in his most recent outing.

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has a few points he looks at when it comes to betting and fading starters down the stretch, keying on things like WHIP as an indicator of which arms are real and fake heading into the second part of the season.

“I will be looking to fade pitchers who cobbled together a winning record in the first half despite owning a lousy WHIP - John Danks, Jarred Cosart, Aaron Harang,” says Lawrence. “On the flip side, I'll be looking to back hurlers who compiled a strong WHIP yet incurred a losing first-half record - Jeff Samardzija, Tyson Ross, Charlie Morton.”

Covers Expert Jesse Schule likes to take advantage of the trade-happy market at this time of year, with contenders pillaging talent from losing clubs. A late-season addition to a rotation or bullpen can be just what the doctor ordered, injecting an outside contender with life.

“I'll keep a close eye on a few teams that I expect to be in the trade market, such as the Yankees, Jays and Cardinals,” says Schule. “With pitchers like David Price and Cole Hamels rumored to be available, the balance of power can shift pretty quickly.”

Motivation and schedule

As mentioned above, motivation can be a huge factor when capping the closing months of baseball. The postseason races pick up in August and September, lighting a fire under those clubs in contention.

But as for the teams on the outside of the postseason picture looking in, there is still plenty of value to be had, according to Covers Expert Steve Merril, who doesn’t shy away from these squads playing out the season.

Merril looks for non-contending teams loading up on Triple-A call-ups, trying to plan ahead for next year. Young pitchers and position players are hungry and go all out trying to make the cut with the big league club, giving some spark to teams that have hovered at the bottom of the division most of the summer.

“The oddsmakers often over-inflate the odds on playoff teams and contenders in must-win situations and this can create value on losing teams with top young prospects on the mound,” says Merril, “especially when the opposing hitters are unfamiliar with that starting pitcher.”

Keeping tabs of the schedule is also more important at this point in the year. Teams that played in May have much more tape on each other now and the familiarity evens out the playing field. A club that rolled to a series sweep in the first half of the slate may not show the same dominance in August.

“One particular angle I'm having some success with lately is taking teams that are playing with revenge for getting swept in a previous series by that same opponent,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “This is provided they aren't a big dog. At this point of the season, most opponents have met at least one time previously this year.”

Summer heat

Just like capping the wind at Wrigley Field, baseball bettors should watch the temperature at some of the major’s hottest cities. Routine fly balls can quickly turn into home runs when the mercury rises, especially if the humidity is high.

Knowing what type of pitcher – flyball or ground ball – and the power the lineup brings to the plate on these scorchers can give bettors an edge when capping the totals. Baseball bettors should also monitor how many innings a starter usually goes and their pitch counts. The heat impacts the pitcher more than batters.

Starters are left on the mount to cook under the sun while batters can take shelter in air conditioned dugouts. Heavy-set pitchers have been known to withstand the heat and carry a bigger gas tank than slimmer starters.

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Ump trend you need to know
Stephen Campbell

Umpire Will Little will be behind the plate for Wednesday's matchup between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins, which means Under backers need to take note. In Little's last seven games calling balls and strikes, the Under is 6-2.

The Tribe is currently slight -108 faves with a total of 7.5, per BetOnline.com.

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Lohse, Brewers trending Under against Reds
Stephen Campbell

When Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Kyle Lohse has faced the Cincinnati Reds recently, the Under is a scorching hot 6-0. Lohse gets the nod for the Reds against the Brew Crew at Miller Park Wednesday.

The Brewers are presently -154 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of 7.5, according to BetOnline

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Dodgers dominating lefties, face Liriano Wednesday
Stephen Campbell

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been feasting on left-handed pitching lately. In their last nine games versus southpaws, L.A. is a 8-1 through Tuesday. Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano will be on the mound when the Bucs host the Dodgers at PNC Park Wednesday.

The Pirates are currently -135 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5, per BetOnline.

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Royals owning ChiSox in Chicago
Stephen Campbell

The Kansas City Royals have struggled mightily in the past little while, but Royals backers have some hope heading into their matchup against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field Wednesday. Through Tuesday, the Royals are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings with the ChiSox in the Windy City.

BetOnline.com currently lists the game as a pick 'em with a total of 7.5 for the matchup.

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Peacock cashing in for Under backers
Stephen Campbell

Houston Astros pitcher Brad Peacock has been a stud for bettors backing the Under in recent games. In the 26-year-old's last seven outings, the Under is 6-1. Houston sends Peacock to the bump when they face off against the Oakland Athletics in the Bay Area Wednesday.

BetOnline.com presently lists the A's as heavy -235 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5.

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This umpire loves high totals
Stephen Campbell

Over backers will be glad to see Paul Emmel behind the plate for Wednesday's meeting between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals at Coors Field. In Emmel's last 10 games calling balls and strikes, the Over is a red-hot 7-1-2.

The Nats are currently -158 with a total of 10, per BetOnline.

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This club has been a boon for Over bettors
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Over in Phillies games recently, you've been making some nice profits. In Philadelphia's last eight games, the Over is 7-1 through Tuesday. The Phils host the San Francisco Giants Wednesday.

BetOnline currently has San Fran as -134 faves on the moneyline with a total of 7.5.

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Champions League TODAY 19:45


St Patrick's v Legia Warsaw


HOME DRAW AWAY
PMSK 6/4
3
6/4
More markets



RECENT FORM

LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ST PATRICK'S

RECENT FORM


HWADHWALADAD

Most recent

•Unknown

HLAWHWHLHDHL

Most recent



KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in the last four competitive games St Patrick’s have played

EXPERT VERDICT: Legia Warsaw managed to save their blushes with an injury-time equaliser in the home leg of this Champions League qualifier last week. While the Polish side remain favourites to progress, but will need to show much more potency in front of goal against the Irish side, who are a difficult side to shut out.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

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MLB

National League
Dodgers-Pirates
Haren is 0-3, 9.64 in his last three starts.
Liriano is 1-4, 5.23 in his last seven starts.


Dodgers lost six of their last nine road games.
Pittsburgh won 13 of its last 16 home games.

Five of last seven Haren starts went over total.

Giants-Phillies
Bumgarner is 2-0, 3.65 in his last couple starts.
Burnett is 1-3, 4.96 in his last five starts.

Giants won five of their last six games.
Phillies lost eleven of last fourteen at home.

Over is 4-0-1 in last five Bumgarner starts.

Marlins-Braves
Eovaldi is 0-2, 6.38 in his last four starts.
Santana is 3-1, 4.00 in his last four starts.

Marlins won their last three games.
Atlanta lost three of its last four games.

Six of last eight Atlanta games went over.

Padres-Cubs
Kennedy is 2-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.
Wada allowed one unearned run in five IP in his only MLB start.

San Diego lost six of its last seven road games.
Cubs lost 11 of their last 14 games.

Seven of last ten Kennedy starts stayed under the total.


Reds-Brewers
Leake is 1-2, 4.91 in his last four starts.
Lohse is 2-2, 3.66 in his last five starts.

Reds lost their last eight road games.
Milwaukee won its last three home games.

Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cincinnati road games.


Nationals-Rockies
Strasburg is 1-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
de la Rosa is 4-0, 3.77 in his last five starts.

Washington won five six of its last seven games.
Colorado lost its last seven games.

Under is 6-3 in last nine games at Coors Field.


American League
Rangers-Bronx
Darvish is 2-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
Phelps is 1-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.

Rangers lost 26 of their last 32 games.
Bronx won five of its last seven games.

Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Bronx home games.


Red Sox-Blue Jays
Buchholz is 2-1, 2.86 in his last four starts.
Dickey is 1-6, 4.28 in his last seven starts.

Boston won eight of its last ten games.
Blue Jays lost ten of their last fifteen games.

Five of last seven Buchholz starts went over total.


Indians-Twins
Bauer is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
Gibson is 0-3, 10.13 in his last three starts.

Cleveland won seven of its last ten games.
Twins lost eight of their last ten home games.

Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Cleveland road games.


Royals-White Sox
Shields is 1-1, 2.75 in his last three starts.
Quintana is 2-0, 1.77 in his last six starts.

Kansas City lost seven of its last nine games.
White Sox won seven of their last nine home games.

Five of last seven Shields starts went over the total; last six Quintana starts all stayed under.


Orioles-Angels
Tillman is 2-1, 2.44 in his last six starts.
Weaver is 3-0, 2.78 in his last six starts.

Baltimore won six of its last eight road games.
Angels won 14 of their last 19 games, but lost last two.

Five of last seven Weaver starts stayed under total.

Astros-A's
Peacock is 1-2, 3.86 in his last six starts.
Chavez is 1-2, 4.98 in his last four starts.

Houston lost 12 of its last 18 road games.
Oakland won 13 of its last 16 home games.

Three of last four Peacock road starts stayed under total.


Interleague games
Rays-Cardinals
Cobb is 3-0, 4.43 in his last four starts.
Lynn is 3-0, 1.86 in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay won its last six games, is 14-2 in last 16 road games.
Cardinals won seven of their last eleven games.

Over is 4-0-1 in last five Cobb starts.

Tigers-Diamondbacks
Sanchez is 1-2, 5.26 in his last four starts.
Cahill is 0-4, 8.74 in five starts this season.

Tigers lost five of their last seven games.
Arizona won five of its last six home games.

Six of last eight Sanchez starts went over total.

Mets-Mariners
Colon is 0-3, 5.88 in his last four starts.
Walker is 1-1, 3.60 in two starts, last of which was July 6.

Mets lost nine of their last twelve road games.
Seattle lost nine of its last fourteen games.

Ten of last twelve games at Safeco Field stayed under total.


Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Leake 8-12; Lohse 14-6
-- Strasburg 11-10; de la Rosa 13-7
-- Bumgarner 11-9; Burnett 10-11
-- Haren 10-10; Liriano 8-8
-- Eovaldi 7-13; Santana 9-9
-- Kennedy 9-12; Wada 0-1


-- Bauer 7-6; Gibson 8-11
-- Shields 12-9; Quintana 8-12
-- Buchholz 7-8; Dickey 9-12
-- Darvish 12-6; Phelps 4-10
-- Peacock 6-8; Chavez 13-6
-- Tillman 13-8; Weaver 13-8

-- Sanchez 9-8; Cahill 1-4
-- Colon 10-9; Walker 1-1
-- Cobb 6-7; Lynn 13-7

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Leake 5-20; Lohse 8-20
-- Strasburg 7-21; de la Rosa 6-20
-- Bumgarner 4-21; Burnett 6-21
-- Haren 10-20; Liriano 6-16
-- Eovaldi 7-20; Santana 7-18
-- Kennedy 6-21; Wada 0-1


-- Bauer 4-13; Gibson 6-19
-- Shields 5-21; Quintana 2-20
-- Buchholz 5-15; Dickey 4-21
-- Darvish 3-18; Phelps 1-14
-- Peacock 5-14; Chavez 5-19
-- Tillman 8-21; Weaver 4-21

-- Sanchez 5-17; Cahill 2-5
-- Colon 7-20; Walker 2-2
-- Cobb 4-14; Lynn 5-20

Umpires
-- LA-Pitt-- 10 of last 13 Diaz games went over total.
-- SF-Phil-- Five of last seven Carapazza games stayed under.
-- Mia-Atl-- Nine of last twelve West games went over.
-- Cin-Mil--11 of 16 Segal games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Col-- Over is 7-1-2 in last ten Emmel games.
-- SD-Chi-- 12 of last 17 Tichenor games went over.

-- Tex-NY-- Under is 12-5-1 in last 18 Scott games.
-- Bos-Tor-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Morales games.
-- KC-Chi-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Fletcher games.
-- Cle-Min-- Six of last eight Little games stayed under total.
-- Balt-LAA-- Six of last eight HGibson games stayed under.
-- Hst-A's-- Seven of nine Marquez games stayed under.

-- Det-Az-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Gonzalez games.
-- NY-Sea-- Four of last five Joyce games went over total.
-- TB-StL-- Underdogs won five of last seven Bellino games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Watson

3* Royals

Royals / W Sox — Love this game. KC has been terrible the last couple weeks, but do hit lefties not so bad. Chicago has gotten some great work from Quintana this season, but he hasn't gotten the most consistent run support at home. Then again, he has made several starts on the road — 12 of his 20 starts have been away from home. Against the Royals this year he has lost twice already, giving up nine earned runs in just over 13 innings of work. In those two losses he got a combined three runs of support. James Shields is the horse for KC and he's beaten the Sox this year, but allowed 10 hits in six innings of work. I like him to mow down the White Sox again in this instance. I think he will be the Bulldog in this game and I'd take the Royals bullpen over Chicago's if we needed them. I like KANSAS CITY to get this job done on the road for us.

MLB NOTES

Cinci / Milwaukee — We were right with the Brewers last night and I expect more runs to be scored in today's game. The prototypical get out of town games are always fun to watch. Both starters have sub-4.0 ERA on the year, but I think this could get past that.

Nats / Rockies — Nats rebounded from a bad start in Tuesday's game. Now they have the horse on the hill against a beaten down Colorado team. Big league teams love hitting fastballs and both of our starters can provide that. hard to believe the Rocks have lost 60 games already.

Tigers / Dbacks — Like Sanchez here, but not betting on the Tigers in the day game getting out of town. Will only look at this one with fandom.

San Fran / Philly — Bum is a big dog here? ESPN game. Burnett probably getting moved at the deadline. Could be a game for the Phils to win at home.

Dodgers / Pitts — Not sure I like either pitching matchup. Could potentially be a total play, especially with 38 runs scored in last night's game.

Red Sox / Blue Jays — Ole' Bucholz taking on the knuckler. Over.

Rangers / Yankees — I know YU has struggled with his terrible team this season at times, but where the hell are we going to get him at 20 cents against a team where he can strike out a bunch of guys? Like Texas here.

Marlins / Braves — Miami has taken the first two games in this series. Can they really win a series in Atlanta? That's tough to tell right now, but Miami has gotten two of their 19 road wins already in this series.

Ryas / Cards — Rays got to Wainwright and beat the Cards last night. Those dudes are HOT right now and it's tough to wager against them, I think. Donnu if we will back Lance Lynn, however.

Fathers / Cubs — Won with the Cubbies last night. This one might see us fade them as Ian Kennedy is looking to take the Chase Headley way out of San Diego.

Houston / Oakland — Houston beat the As in extra innings last night. Could it happen again? Possibly. Hard to envision laying that kinda juice with As coming off a loss, but might be the exact right time.

Orioles / Angels — Will I have a third straight losing ticket with the Angels? Crystal ball says I'm not sure right now.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer - - VIP Picks

St. Patrick - Legia Warsaw
Tip: St. Patrick +0.5
Odds: 1,95

Maribor - Zrinjski
Tip: Maribor -1
Odds: 2,00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Baltimore at LA Angels

After taking the first two games of the series in Anaheim, the Orioles face an Angels team that is 1-7 in their last 8 games after dropping the first two games of a series. Baltimore is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 23 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.619; Milwaukee (Lohse) 16.249 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Over

Game 903-904: Washington at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.889; Colorado (De La Rosa) 13.158 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 10 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over

Game 905-906: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.959; Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.216 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Over

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 13.400; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.899 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under

Game 909-910: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 15.753; Atlanta (Santana) 14.805 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+150); Under

Game 911-912: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.319; Cubs (Wada) 16.413 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); N/A

Game 913-914: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 14.768; Minnesota (Swarzak) 13.147 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Under

Game 915-916: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.470; White Sox (Quintana) 13.826 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Over

Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.442; Toronto (Dickey) 14.518 Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); Under

Game 919-920: Texas at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.268; NY Yankees (Phelps) 17.284 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 15.770; Oakland (Chavez) 14.803 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+220); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.632; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.703 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under

Game 925-926: Detroit at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 14.597; Arizona (Cahill) 15.580 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Over

Game 927-928: NY Mets at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 16.363; Seattle (Walker) 14.869 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.640; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.105 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Los Angeles

The Sparks host a New York team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-8). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 23 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Connecticut at Washington (11:30 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.028; Washington 115.934 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8; 155 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 150 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2); Over

Game 653-654: New York at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.608; Los Angeles 118.046 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10 1/2; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 151 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-8); Under