7-24-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Seattle -140 w/ Iwakuima

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Buchholz and the Bosawx buckled against the Blue Jays Wednesday night, which caused Hondo’s dirty digits to rise to 1,450 malzones.

Thursday: Mr. Aitch will stick with the Sawx — 10 units on De La Rosa to extinguish the Jays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.

The deficit is 354 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phillies pitcher keeps Giants offense shrunk
Justin Hartling

Cole Hamels will take to the mound against the San Francisco Giants, a team he has had great success against. This success has paid out at the betting window with a 1-5-0 over/under record in his last seven starts against San Fran.

Hamels has given up an average of 2.5 runs per game in that span, with the teams averaging a mere five runs total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Just how dominant is Kluber against Royals?
Justin Hartling

Corey Kluber will take the mound for the Cleveland Indians with a sterling record against the opposition. The Indians are 6-1 against the Kansas CIity Royals in Kluber's last seven starts.

Kluber has given up less than two runs per game during those starts. Kluber has also struckout eight or more batters in three of those games including 10 in his last outing earlier this month.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 24TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#951 SAN FRANCISCO @ #952 PHILADELPHIA - 1:05 PM
•Giants RH Tim Hudson (8-6, 2.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.101) - Hudson has faced the Phillies 29 times in his career, posting an 11-9 record with a 3.72 ERA - his highest mark against any NL East opponent. He enters this matchup on the heels of a terrific start against Miami, which managed just one run in 7 1/3 innings Saturday. Hudson did not walk a batter against the Marlins, marking the third time in his last four starts that he went at least six frames without issuing a free pass.

--KEY STAT: HUDSON is 22-4 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 6.2, OPPONENT 3.4.

--HUDSON is 30-8 (+17.0 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUDSON 5.2, OPPONENT 2.8.

•Phillies LH Cole Hamels (4-5, 2.83 ERA, WHIP: 1.163) - Hamels has won two straight decisions and allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive starts. That said, the former World Series MVP still is trying to reach the .500 mark for the first time this season, due in large part to terrible run support. Buster Posey is 7-for-11 with four doubles and a home run against Hamels, while Michael Morse is just 4-for-18 with eight strikeouts versus the 30-year-old.

--KEY STAT: HAMELS is 9-17 (-13.6 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.3.

--HAMELS is 10-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.5, OPPONENT 2.5.

--HAMELS is 10-1 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.8, OPPONENT 2.8.

#953 MIAMI @ #954 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (6-5, 2.64 ERA, WHIP: 1.255) - Alvarez’s first start of the second half ended in the third inning Saturday when he took a comebacker off his left shin, but X-rays were negative and the Marlins have said all week they do not anticipate any problems out of the All-Star hurler. He has lost his past two starts, surrendering six runs on eight hits in five innings against the New York Mets on July 11. Alvarez gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings in his lone appearance against the Braves this season.

--KEY STAT: ALVAREZ is 11-4 (+7.9 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7.

--ALVAREZ is 13-6 (+8.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 3.9, OPPONENT 3.4.

•Braves RH Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.36 ERA, WHIP: 1.378) - Harang’s next victory will give him double-digits for the first time since a 10-win campaign in 2012, a far cry from the 5-12 record he posted last season. He has won his past four decisions and fired six shutout innings Saturday, not factoring in the decision in a 2-1 loss to Philadelphia. Harang, who has pitched at least six innings in nine of his past 10 outings, was shelled for nine runs on 10 hits on April 30 at Miami, but has allowed three runs in 12 2/3 frames in his other two appearances against the Marlins this season.

--KEY STAT: HARANG is 2-12 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 2.8, OPPONENT 5.1.

--HARANG is 43-22 UNDER (+18.8 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 4.1, OPPONENT 4.1.
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#955 SAN DIEGO @ #956 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Padres RH Tyson Ross (8-10, 2.70 ERA, WHIP: 1.171) - With his next win, Ross will triple his previous career high. The All-Star has recorded six straight quality starts but is just 2-4 over that span despite a 1.47 ERA. The 27-year-old is making his first start versus the Cubs but pitched two scoreless innings in relief against them in 2010.

--KEY STAT: ROSS is 6-17 (-12.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ROSS 3.0, OPPONENT 4.3.

•Cubs RH Edwin Jackson (5-10, 5.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.563) - Jackson has been better at home than on the road, but his 4-3 record and 5.19 ERA in nine starts at Wrigley Field are nothing to celebrate. The 30-year-old is winless in five outings since June 20 and gave up three runs and seven hits over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision last time out versus Arizona. Jackson fell to 0-5 with a 6.94 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) against the Padres after giving up eight runs in four frames at San Diego on May 23.

--KEY STAT: JACKSON is 1-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.1, OPPONENT 6.7.

--JACKSON is 5-19 (-13.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.3.

--JACKSON is 17-36 (-19.2 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.2.

#957 NY METS @ #958 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Mets RH Dillon Gee (4-2, 2.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.051) - Gee has struggled against Milwaukee, compiling a 6.75 ERA while losing all three career starts. He lost to the San Diego Padres in his last turn when he allowed four runs and five hits despite striking out eight in five innings. Gee is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA in four road starts this season.

--KEY STAT: GEE is 11-2 UNDER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 2.7, OPPONENT 2.9.

--GEE is 21-9 UNDER (+11.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 3.3, OPPONENT 3.2.

•Brewers RH Matt Garza (6-7, 4.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.235) - Garza is coming off a miserable start in which he retired just one batter while allowing five runs, five hits and two walks in a loss to the Washington Nationals. The poor outing followed a stretch in which he gave up just two runs and five hits over 16 2/3 innings while splitting a pair of decisions. Garza has a 1.93 ERA in two career starts against New York.

--KEY STAT: GARZA is 6-16 (-12.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 3.6, OPPONENT 5.3.

--GARZA is 2-10 (-10.5 Units) against the money line against National League East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 2.9, OPPONENT 5.6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Mets at Brewers – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
NYM: Gee (4-2, 2.92 ERA)
MIL: Garza (6-7, 4.04 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Mets continue their lengthy road trip after grabbing two of three from the Mariners at Safeco Field. New York held off Seattle on Wednesday, 3-2 to cash as +120 underdogs, while improving to 3-3 on this trip. The Brewers pulled off a three-game sweep of the slumping Reds at home, including Wednesday’s 5-1 rout as -140 favorites.

What to watch for: Milwaukee won two of three matchups at Citi Field the last time these teams hooked up in June, as the road team owns a 7-3 record in the past 10 meetings in this series. The Brewers have lost three of Garza’s past four starts at Miller Park, while the ‘over’ has cashed three times in this stretch. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in Gee’s past seven outings, as the Mets have hit the ‘under’ in five consecutive contests overall.

Indians at Royals – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Kluber (10-6, 2.95 ERA)
KC: Duffy (5-10, 2.66 ERA)

Previous series recap: After dropping the series opener at Chicago, the Royals won the final two games over the White Sox, including Wednesday’s 2-1 triumph. Kansas City’s pitching limited Chicago to just two runs in the final victories, while the Royals are riding a modest two-game winning streak following a four-game skid. The Indians continue their venture through the AL Central, going 4-3 through the first seven contests at Detroit and Minnesota. However, the Tribe lost two of three at Target Field, capped off by a 3-1 defeat on Wednesday.

What to watch for: This series has been fairly even this season with the Indians holding a slight 5-4 advantage through nine matchups. Kluber has won his last three starts, including a home victory over the Royals earlier this month as a -150 favorite in a 4-1 triumph. Kansas City is 6-0 to the ‘under’ in Duffy’s past six starts, while the team has won just once in this stretch. The Royals have struggled at home of late, posting a 4-9 record the last 13 games since sweeping a mini two-game set from the Indians in early June.

White Sox at Twins – 8:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
CHW: Noesi (4-7, 5.21 ERA)
MIN: Hughes (10-6, 4.06 ERA)

Previous series recap: Chicago’s offense hit a flat spot against Kansas City, plating just five runs in a series defeat to the Royals. The Sox split their six-game homestand to the Royals and Astros, while going ‘under’ the total five times. After getting swept by the Rays, the Twins grabbed two of three from the Indians, but Minnesota has scored three runs or less five times in six games since the All-Star break.

What to watch for: The Twins have won five straight meetings against the White Sox, including pulling off a four-game sweep at Target Field last month. Hughes has allowed at least five earned runs in five of the last six starts, while the Twins are 2-0 in the right-hander’s two starts against the Sox this season. Chicago has struggled in road series openers of late, posting a 1-6 record in the last seven Game 1’s on the highway.

Tigers at Angels – 10:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
DET: Scherzer (11-3, 3.34 ERA)
LAA: Richards (11-2, 2.47 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Angels avoided a sweep by knocking off the Orioles last night, 3-2 to cash as heavy -165 favorites. Los Angeles has compiled a 3-3 record on its current 10-game homestand, while hitting the ‘under’ five times through the first six contests. The Tigers held off the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, 11-5 to capture two of three in that interleague set. Detroit improved to 12-4 in its past 16 contests on the highway dating back to late June.

What to watch for: Since the start of 2013, Los Angeles has beaten Detroit seven of nine times, but the Tigers took two of three from the Angels at Comerica Park back in April. The Tigers are 6-2 in Scherzer’s last eight road starts, while the right-hander shut down the L.A. lineup in a 5-2 home victory on April 19 as a -160 favorite. The Angels own a 9-1 record in Richards’ past 10 trips to the mound, while the Halos are 10-2 in their previous 12 home series openers since May.

Orioles at Mariners – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
BAL: Chen (10-3, 4.21 ERA)
SEA: Iwakuma (8-4, 2.95 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Orioles rebounded from a tough series loss at Oakland to beat the red-hot Angels two of three times on the road. Although Baltimore couldn’t complete the sweep, the O’s limited the Halos to just seven runs in the three-game set, resulting in three ‘unders.’ The Mariners also saw the ‘under’ cash in all three games of their series against the Mets, but Seattle dropped the final two contests after taking Monday’s opener, 5-2.

What to watch for: Seattle is riding a 6-0 hot streak in its previous six home series openers, while the M’s own a 5-2 record in Iwakuma’s past seven trips to the mound. Chen lost twice to the Mariners last season, both in the favorite role, while allowing eight earned runs and 13 hits in 11 innings of work. The Baltimore southpaw is unbeaten in his past three starts, but Chen has not lasted past the sixth inning in his last five trips to the hill.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | NEW YORK at SEATTLE
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SEATTLE) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, with a losing record after 15 or more games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

WNBA | PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games
56-20 since 1997. ( 73.7% | 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) off a close home loss by 3 points or less, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Runs at a Premium'

The matchup between the Atlanta and Miami in Turner Field Thursday night, has the markings of a low-scoring affair. Right-hander Aaron Harang toes the rubber for Atlanta, entering the game with a 9-6 record, 3.36 ERA. Harang has guided Braves to a 4-1 mark his past five allowing 2 or less runs in posting four 'Under' and 1 'Over'. Harang has faced Marlins once at Turner Field since joining Atlanta allowing a single run over six while striking out 11. Harang trades pitches with Henderson Alvarez off a loss giving up two runs in 2 2/3 innings before leaving after being struck by a ground ball. Alvarez brings a 6-5 record, 2.64 ERA to the hill but it's well to note the hurler has a solid 10-2 team record the past twelve starts allowing 2 or less runs in 10 of the trips to the mound. Well, 9-of-11 discounting his early departure last outing. The two teams have met six times in Atlanta this season, with the 'Under' being the right play as the clubs have posted 4 'Under', 1 'Over' and 1 'Push'.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SAN DIEGO at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more
233-130 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% | 75.6 units )
34-23 this year. ( 59.6% | 7.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | HOUSTON at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 114-59 (+56.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.1) , OPPONENT (3.8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Phillies -120

Padres -125

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River City Sharps

Even though he is sporting a losing mark of 8-10, Tyson Ross has been rock solid for the padres this year. The San Diego righty has a solid 2.70 ERA but has been the victim of a complete lack of run support, most visible in his more recent starts. Over his last nine starts, the Padres have scored a total of 10 runs for the All-Star. Tonight, he gets the ball and will be opposed by the Cubs Edwin Jackson, who may be the guy for the Padres to give Ross some more run support. The Padres have absolutely destroyed Jackson through the years, who has posted an 0-5 record with a 6.95 ERA against these Padres. The Cubs have really struggled post-All Star break and are 1-6 over their last seven games. The Cubs are also just 6-20 in Jackson's last 26 starts as an underdog. We will roll with Ross here tonight at a reasonable price and expect the Padres to continue their domination of Jackson. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - SAN DIEGO PADRES -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

4 STAR SELECTION

(966) Kansas City Royals +$100

(Risking $400 to win $400) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

(962) New York Yankees -$183

(Risking $366 to win $200) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

(967) Chicago White Sox +1.5 -$150

(Risking $300 to win $200) (Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FurysFightPicks

4* parlay at -111

Josh Thomson -225 & Robbie Lawler -315



3* parlay at -107

Tim Means -230 & Bermudez/Guida over 2.5 rounds -285

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Cleveland Indians -120

50* Atlanta Braves -140