7-24-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
Baseball

3* Brewers- 159

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SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Calgary @ EDMONTON

EDMONTON +105 over Calgary

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

The Eskies opened as a 2-point favorite but the so called “sharpies” quickly got a hold of the number and now the Stamps are a slight favorite. There is some validity to that, as Calgary has absolutely dominated this series over the years by defeating Edmonton eight straight. The last time Edmonton celebrated a win over the Stampeders was way back in September of 2011. We say big deal. With 1000’s and 1000’s and 1000’s of games played every year combined between all sports (pro and college) there are going to be some “trends” that stick out more than others but using that to influence your selection is actually ridiculous. What happened years ago has zero impact on the outcome of this one and we’ll use that Calgary dominance to take advantage of a favorable number. The Stamps are 3-0 but a close look shows wins over Montreal, Toronto and Hamilton, who are a combined 2-9. Last week Calgary dodged a huge bullet at home by defeating the injury depleted Tiger-Cats, 10-7. The Stamps were a 9½-point choice against a Hamilton bunch that was forced to use a first time QB, not to mention several replacements to key personnel on both sides of the ball. Despite winning two weeks ago, Calgary was outgained by the Argonauts by almost 80 yards. The Stamps defense has been great but again, two of the three games were against Hamilton and Montreal, two teams that can’t move forward.

By contrast, Edmonton has defeated both Winnipeg and British Columbia. In Winnipeg last week the Eskies were dominating, despite it being a look-ahead game to this one. This is one of the fiercest rivalries in all of sports, as only 300 KM separate the two stadiums in the same province. For Edmonton, this is like a playoff game and certainly its biggest game of the season. They are sick of being the Stamps whipping boys. They have focused tremendously this week on getting this proverbial monkey of their backs. Nothing else matters. How serious are the Eskimos? They closed their Tuesday practice to the public and media and announced that the ban will last the entire week. Edmonton’s defense has been outstanding, holding all four teams to 24 points or less and holding its last two opponents to 11 and 3 points respectively. Edmonton is 4-0, they’re at home, they’ve had an extra day to prepare, they haven’t been this determined or focused in a long time and frankly, there is nothing we’ve seen from the Stamps that suggests they deserve to be the chalk in Edmonton. Eskies outright.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY

Cleveland -109 over KANSAS CITY (1st 5 innings)

(Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

We’re going to switch to the first 5 innings for a good majority of our games for now because had we’ve had leads (or tied) after five in just about every game we’ve bet since the All-Star break. Our selections are largely based on the starting pitchers and therefore shortening the game should work in our favor.

Danny Duffy has posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 90 innings this season. However, there is nothing in his profile that suggests he’ll be able to maintain that pace in the second half. Duffy has been the beneficiary of a lucky 80% strand rate. His swinging strike rate is below league average and it’s getting worse. Duffy has a groundball/fly-ball rate of 35%/48%, yet his HR/F is only 0.8%. That can’t last, as eventually some of those fly-balls will leave the yard. Furthermore, current Indians batters have 23 hits in 65 combined AB’s against Duffy for a BA of .354 and an off-the charts OPS of 1.053. Duffy is a prime sell-high target.

If Corey Kluber isn’t in the Cy Young discussion, he should be because few pitchers in the AL have been better. Kluber has 152 K’s in 140 innings. He’s issued just 33 walks and has an elite groundball rate of 55% since the beginning of May. Kluber comes in with a 12% swing and miss rate, a 64% first strike pitch rate and an ERA of 2.95 with an xERA of 2.96. Current Royals have just 39 hits against Kluber in 187 AB’s for a BA of .209. Any time we can spot a cheap price with Kluber going against a team that loses as many games as they win, we’ll gladly step in and certainly make no exception here.


Miami @ ATLANTA

Miami +125 over ATLANTA (1st 5 innings)

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Checking in on Aaron Harang a couple of months ago revealed that he had seemingly recaptured his skills from around 2006, finishing May with a fine 3.30 ERA and base skills soaring into elite territory. Now in late July, he seems to be hanging in there, with a season ERA still at 3.36. A skills analysis, however, reveals that things are unraveling quickly for Harang. Talk about a skills reversal and one need not look further than this stiff. Since June 1, Harang has walked as many batters as he's struck out (28 in 58 IP) His swing and miss rate shows he's fooling fewer hitters as the months pass. Strand and hit % fortune have masked his poor skills. As usual, xERA tells the real story and Harang’s xERA since June 1 is 5.76. Taking back a tag against Harang has nothing but value and it should be noted that current Marlins have 50 hits in 131 AB’s (.382) against him.

We’re on record saying that Henderson Alvarez was benefitting from a lot of good fortune early on and that his ERA would absolutely regress. Well, over his last three starts, Alvarez has posted an ERA of 4.91 and now that his stock has dropped somewhat, we’re buyers once again because there are many positive trends working in his favor. Alvarez’s swinging strike rate has increased from below average to above average: 6%, 8%, 9%. He already had an elite 54% groundball rate but over his past five starts his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one of the best in the game at 58%/15%/27%. Alvarez also has outstanding control, as his 22 walks in 123 frames will attest to. For a team that is hitting just .242 against righties at home, the Braves continue to be overpriced and we’re on it.

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Miguel DaSilva

3* Toronto RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

10* Daytime Dominator, Toronto ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steven Nover

Miami +131

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Marc Lyle Sports

Boston Under 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

Oakland Over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

AL Game of the Week Kansas City

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BLACKSHEEP

Medium Margin Move — Philadelphia Phillies ML

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VEGAS RUNNER

Early MLB Confirmed Move

952) PHILLIES -115 thru -120

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Thursday card has the 27-2 MLB System Game of the Week, a 12-1 Dog system and a Totals System that has 7 Big angles. Free MLB Play 15-4 Run. See below

On Thursday the free MLB Play is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 968 at 8:10 eastern. The Twins fit a 90% system here that plays on certain home favorites off a home dog win by 2 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and their opponent arrives off a home loss. The Twins are 7-0 as a home favorite of -140 or more and 6-1 as a home favorite off a home dog win. Chicago has lost the last 5 to the Twins and is 0-9 on the road off a 1 run loss and 0-5 as a road dog of +140 or more off a home loss. They have H. Noesi going and he was pedestrian like in a 7 inning 4 earned runs appearance here in June. He will oppose Phil Hughes tonight who has a 7-2 record against them with a 2.78 era. With the Whitesox just 2-8 on throwback Thursday we will take the Twins tonight. On Thursday their are 3 More Big MLB Plays up one is the MLB Game of the Week from a Powerful 27-2 League Wide system, their a Big totals play from a 90% system and a 12-1 Dog system. C Jump on and cash big on Throw back Thursday. For the free play take Minnesota. GC

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Time: Thursday 07/24 3:35 PM Eastern
Pick: Oakland -1.5 (-120) at 5dimes

The Houston Astros stole a game in this series vs. the Oakland A's, but I don't think that they are going to take another. Oakland has been the best team in the AL all season, and they have had their game on and delivering the knockout blow vs. bad teams, where they don't get caught sleeping very often. Oakland has delivered a 108-38 record as a favorite of -201 or higher, and is killing teams that start a right-hander against them at home where they are 88-40 in their last 128. The Astros have not made too many stands on the road, where they are an MLB worst 79-182 in their last 261 road games. When facing a winning team, Houston finds the win column very infrequently as they are a woeful 43-134 in their last 177. Houston is 7-23 in their last 30 vs. Oakland, and 1-7 in their last eight in O.Co Coliseum. Oakland has more 2 runs or more wins than any team in baseball, and get one more today. Play Oakland on the runline.

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SportsAtari

A's -1.5

Braves ML

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LV White Shark

Under 9 Texas Rangers/New York Yankees

Over 7.5 Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics