7-26-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

San Diego at Atlanta

The Padres look to follow up last night's 5-2 win in the opener and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus the Braves. San Diego is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 26 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 16.011; Cubs (Arrieta) 14.368 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); N/A

Game 952-954: Washington at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.615; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.750 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Under

Game 955-956 Arizona at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 16.244; Philadelphia (Lee) 14.774 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over

Game 957-958: San Diego at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 14.992; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.093 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.776; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.664 Dunkel Line: NY Mets 1; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+145); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.577; Colorado (Matzek) 15.961 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 12 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.337; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 13.785 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under

Game 965-966: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 14.946; NY Yankees (Capuano) 16.397 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.385; Seattle (Young) 13.935 Dunkel Line: Baltimore 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Under

Game 969-970: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.262; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.404 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 13.546; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.159 Dunkel Line: Kansas City 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.752; Minnesota (Darnell) 13.436 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 3 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-170); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 16.921; Texas (Tepesch) 14.497 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-180); Over

Game 977-978: Detroit at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.818; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 15.471 Dunkel Line: Detroit 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over

Game 929-930: Miami at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.268; Houston (Cosart) 13.536 Dunkel Line: Miami 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 26TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#951 ST LOUIS @ #952 CHICAGO CUBS - 4:05 PM
•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (7-8, 4.25 ERA, WHIP: 1.482) - Miller came out of the bullpen to throw a scoreless frame on Sunday after the Cardinals opted to temporarily bump him from the rotation to give him some rest. The 23-year-old, who is fourth in the majors with 55 walks and 0-3 with a 6.03 ERA over his last six starts, was tagged for four runs over five innings in his last turn on July 10 in a 9-1 loss to the Pirates. Miller has yet to surrender a run to the Cubs in two career appearances (one start) spanning 5 2/3 innings.

--KEY STAT: MILLER is 0-8 against the run line (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 2.6, OPPONENT 5.0.

--MILLER is 1-10 against the run line (-11.1 Units) in road games versus an National League team with they batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 2.6, OPPONENT 4.9.

•Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (5-2, 2.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.012) - Despite being weak from a three-day battle with the stomach flu in Sunday’s 3-2 setback against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arrieta managed to strike out eight over 6 2/3 innings, only to suffer his first loss since May 27. The Missouri native yielded three runs on four hits and three walks for the second consecutive outing and has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in nine straight turns. Arrieta has been masterful in his career versus the Cardinals, posting a 1-0 record and 0.55 ERA in three all-time starts.

--KEY STAT: ARRIETA is 13-5 (+10.0 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARRIETA 3.8, OPPONENT 2.6.

--ARRIETA is 7-1 (+7.6 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARRIETA 3.5, OPPONENT 1.5.

#953 WASHINGTON @ #954 CINCINNATI - 4:05 PM
•Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.74 ERA, WHIP: 1.246) - Gonzalez received a no-decision after he allowed three runs and four hits while walking three in 3 1/3 innings in Washington's 5-4 victory over Milwaukee on Sunday after his start was pushed back a day because of travel problems returning from the All-Star break. ''Nine days off. It didn't help missing bullpen (session) and doing all that (work),'' the 28-year-old Florida native told reporters. ''Obviously my command and fastball location wasn't where I wanted it to be.'' Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts against the Reds, striking out 32 in 27 innings while allowing only one homer.

--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 25-6 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.1, OPPONENT 2.4.

--GONZALEZ is 33-11 (+20.8 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.7, OPPONENT 3.0.

--GONZALEZ is 19-3 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against National League Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.9, OPPONENT 2.8.

•Reds RH Johnny Cueto (10-6, 2.18 ERA, WHIP: 0.915) - Cueto received a no-decision after allowing two runs and five hits while walking four and striking out seven in five innings of Cincinnati's 3-2 loss at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. The 28-year-old Dominican Republic native leads the NL in batting average against (.184) and innings (148 2/3), and is second in strikeouts (148). Cueto, who is 5-3 with a 4.58 ERA in nine starts against Washington, is 5-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 10 day starts this season, and 7-3, 1.98 in 11 turns at home.

--KEY STAT: CUETO is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.4.

--CUETO is 13-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 4.1, OPPONENT 1.9.

--CUETO is 24-7 UNDER (+16.3 Units) in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 3.6, OPPONENT 2.2.

#955 ARIZONA @ #956 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (8-5, 3.64 ERA, WHIP: 1.240) - Collmenter has put together two straight strong starts spanning the All-Star break, allowing one run over seven innings in each. He gave up only four hits while beating the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, earning his first win since June 28. The 28-year-old is 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA in seven career games (three starts) versus Philadelphia.

--KEY STAT: COLLMENTER is 7-1 (+6.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLLMENTER 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Phillies LH Cliff Lee (4-5, 3.67 ERA, WHIP: 1.357) - Lee's return from the disabled list was ugly, as he allowed six runs and 12 hits over 5 2/3 innings in Monday's loss to San Francisco. It was his first major-league start since May 18 and marked the third time in 11 outings this season he has allowed six or more earned runs. Lee is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven career starts against the Diamondbacks, including a no-decision on April 26 in Arizona.

--KEY STAT: LEE is 5-13 (-11.8 Units) against the money line after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 3.3, OPPONENT 3.6.

--LEE is 21-42 against the run line (-20.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 3.6, OPPONENT 3.9.

--LEE is 16-35 against the run line (-19.7 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 3.3, OPPONENT 3.7.

--LEE is 10-27 against the run line (-16.2 Units) after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.6.

--LEE is 23-9 UNDER (+13.0 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7.
_______________________________________

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#957 SAN DIEGO @ #958 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Padres RH Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 1.31 ERA, WHIP: 0.903) - Despaigne is coming off the best start of his young career Sunday, when he allowed one run on two hits over 7 2/3 innings against the New York Mets after taking a no-hitter into the eighth. The 27-year-old has pitched six or more innings and has yielded two or fewer runs in each of his first five major league starts. Opponents are batting .177 against Despaigne, who signed with the Padres as a minor league free agent May 2.

•Braves RH Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.64 ERA, WHIP: 1.026) - Teheran matched a career high with 11 strikeouts and tossed seven innings of one-run ball against Miami on Monday. “I felt that it was the best start I had this year,” the 23-year-old told reporters. “All my pitches were working and I had the confidence to throw them.” Teheran, who is 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA in two career starts against San Diego, owns a 3-1 mark and 1.23 ERA in 10 starts this season at home.

--KEY STAT: TEHERAN is 20-7 UNDER (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1.

--TEHERAN is 22-10 UNDER (+10.3 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.4, OPPONENT 3.5.

--TEHERAN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 4.1, OPPONENT 1.9.

--TEHERAN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.1, OPPONENT 2.1.

--TEHERAN is 13-3 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 4.1, OPPONENT 2.4.

--TEHERAN is 12-4 UNDER (+7.5 Units) in night games this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.3, OPPONENT 2.9.

#959 NY METS @ #960 MILWAUKEE - 7:10 PM
•Mets LH Jonathon Niese (5-5, 3.13 ERA, WHIP: 1.253) - Niese lost to Seattle in his last start in his return from a shoulder ailment. He allowed four runs and a season-worst 11 hits while striking out six in six innings. Niese is 2-0 with a 4.64 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee, including a no-decision June 12 when he gave up one run and six hits over 7 2/3 innings.

--KEY STAT: NIESE is 17-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NIESE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.

--NIESE is 13-4 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in road games against National League Central opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NIESE 6.2, OPPONENT 3.6.

--NIESE is 33-10 against the run line (+19.2 Units) in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NIESE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.6.

--NIESE is 15-4 against the run line (+12.1 Units) when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NIESE 5.6, OPPONENT 3.5.

•Brewers RH Wily Peralta (11-6, 3.58 ERA, WHIP: 1.257) - Peralta has won seven of his past eight decisions and his next victory will surpass last season’s win total. He has allowed one earned run and six hits in 14 innings over his last two turns, winning both decisions. He is 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA in two career starts against the Mets, including a win June 11 in which he allowed one runs and four hits in 6 1/3 innings.

#961 PITTSBURGH @ #962 COLORADO - 8:10 PM
•Pirates LH Jeff Locke (2-1, 3.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.032) - Locke on Sunday yielded three runs and seven hits in six innings to stretch his unbeaten streak to seven outings. The 26-year-old New Hampshire native sports a 2.38 ERA in his last eight turns - all quality starts. Locke has left four of his 10 outings this season with the lead only to be the victim of a blown save.

•Rockies LH Tyler Matzek (1-4, 4.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.469) - Matzek on Sunday allowed three runs and seven hits while striking out eight in six innings, and hasn't won in seven starts since winning his major-league debut. ''Tyler did a great job,'' Weiss told reporters of the 23-year-old California native. ''Put us in position (to win) again." Matzek, the 11th overall pick in 2009 by the Rockies, has a 7.27 ERA and struck out only eight covering 17 1/3 innings in his last three turns at home since defeating Atlanta 8-2 on June 11.

#963 LA DODGERS @ #964 SAN FRANCISCO - 9:05 PM
•Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (11-2, 1.92 ERA, WHIP: 0.842) - Kershaw has been outstanding in his career against the Giants, going 11-5 with a 1.48 ERA in 22 starts. Hunter Pence has been held to four hits in 41 at-bats against the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who allowed three runs over seven innings in a 7-4 loss to San Francisco on May 11. Kershaw has struck out 134 batters and issued 14 walks in 103 1/3 innings this season, and he has worked at least seven frames in nine of his last 10 starts.

--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 1.4.

--KERSHAW is 10-1 against the run line (+9.5 Units) in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 1.4.

--KERSHAW is 15-4 against the run line (+11.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.6, OPPONENT 2.9.

•Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (5-7, 3.99 ERA, WHIP: 1.340) - Vogelsong is looking to bounce back from a shaky outing against Philadelphia on Monday, when he allowed a career-high 11 hits and four runs (three earned) over three-plus innings. The 37-year-old is 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA in 22 career games (13 starts) against the Dodgers, including a 3.12 ERA in three starts this season. Vogelsong has posted a 3.04 ERA in 11 starts at home this season compared to a 5.44 ERA in nine road outings.

--KEY STAT: VOGELSONG is 18-5 (+15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1.

--VOGELSONG is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 2.0, OPPONENT 3.4.

--VOGELSONG is 24-9 UNDER (+14.3 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 26TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#965 TORONTO @ #966 NY YANKEES - 1:05 PM
•Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (6-9, 4.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.345) - Hutchison was pummeled for the second straight time, tying a career high by surrendering six runs – set in his previous outing nine days earlier against Tampa Bay – on nine hits over 2 2/3 innings in a 14-1 setback to the Boston Red Sox. The loss, which was his fifth in six outings, dropped the second-year hurler to 2-5 with a 7.71 ERA at home. Hutchison is 4-4 with a 2.97 ERA on the road, where he will try to change his luck against the Yankees, against whom he is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA in three starts this season.

•Yankees LH Chris Capuano (1-1, 4.55 ERA, WHIP: 1.546) - In an effort to add another arm to their injury-ravaged rotation, the Yankees acquired Capuano for cash considerations from the Colorado Rockies on Thursday. The 35-year-old, who made 28 relief appearances with the Red Sox this season before he was released, will make his first start since last Aug. 31 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Capuano tossed two innings in relief versus the Blue Jays in May and is 1-0 with a 4.97 ERA in five all-time appearances (two starts) against them.

--KEY STAT: CAPUANO is 6-23 against the run line (-17.3 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was CAPUANO 3.7, OPPONENT 4.8.

#967 BALTIMORE @ #968 SEATTLE - 4:10 PM
•Orioles RH Bud Norris (8-6, 3.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.208) - Norris has won five of his last six starts, allowing one or fewer earned runs in four of them. He struck out eight while beating the Los Angeles Angels in his last turn, giving up two runs (one earned) and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. Norris is 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in three career starts against Seattle.

--KEY STAT: NORRIS is 23-8 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 3.9, OPPONENT 3.5.

•Mariners RH Chris Young (8-6, 3.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.125) - Young is 0-2 over his last three outings despite not giving up more than three runs in any of the starts. He received a no-decision in his last turn when he gave up three runs and 10 hits in six innings against the Los Angeles Angels. Young is 1-1 with a 4.70 ERA in three career starts against Baltimore.

--KEY STAT: YOUNG is 35-18 (+17.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 4.7, OPPONENT 3.7.

--YOUNG is 0-12 against the run line (-12.8 Units) in home games in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 3.7, OPPONENT 6.1.

--YOUNG is 8-30 against the run line (-22.2 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9.

--YOUNG is 10-1 UNDER (+9.2 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 2.7, OPPONENT 2.6.

--YOUNG is 12-2 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was YOUNG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.7.

#969 BOSTON @ #970 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Red Sox RH John Lackey (11-6, 3.66 ERA, WHIP: 1.205) - Lackey is seeking his third straight win and the 150th of his career after defeating Toronto with seven outstanding innings on Monday. He allowed a run on a season-low two hits and did not walk a batter for the first time since May 28. The veteran tossed seven scoreless in his last start at Tampa Bay on May 23 and has allowed two runs in 15 frames against the division rivals this year.

--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 20-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 5.7, OPPONENT 3.5.

--LACKEY is 1-9 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.9, OPPONENT 5.7.

•Rays RH Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 2.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.617) - Hellickson is expected to be recalled from Single-A Charlotte and make his second start in the majors this season after working his way back from elbow surgery. He allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings against Kansas City on July 8 before making two more minor-league starts prior to the recall. The 27-year-old, who lasted just one-plus inning in Game 4 of the ALDS against Boston last fall, is 4-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 13 career appearances (12 starts) versus the Red Sox.

--KEY STAT: HELLICKSON is 7-0 OVER (+7.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HELLICKSON 4.8, OPPONENT 6.6.

--HELLICKSON is 28-10 UNDER (+15.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HELLICKSON 3.6, OPPONENT 3.8.

#971 CLEVELAND @ #972 KANSAS CITY - 7:10 PM
•Indians RH Zach McAllister (3-5, 5.28 ERA, WHIP: 1.408) - McAllister is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Columbus to make his 13th start of the season. The 26-year-old saw his winless streak reach eight outings (0-5) on July 19 despite allowing just one run and three hits over 5 1/3 innings at Detroit. McAllister evened his career record against Kansas City to 2-2 on April 21, when he yielded three runs - two earned - over six frames in a 4-3 triumph.

--KEY STAT: MCALLISTER is 12-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCALLISTER 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (5-9, 4.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.346) - Guthrie lost his third consecutive start Monday at the Chicago White Sox despite allowing only three runs and five hits in six innings. The 35-year-old surrendered a total of 14 runs over eight frames in his previous two outings. Guthrie fell to 4-5 lifetime against the Indians on July 5, when he was tagged for six runs and 11 hits over four innings at Cleveland.

--KEY STAT: GUTHRIE is 28-16 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.6.
___________________________________________

NFL Subscription Sale - Early Bird Discounts!
Look no further than our Experts here at StatSystemsSports.net when it comes to National Football League betting this season, that’s if you don’t mind winning loads of cold hard cash of course. Don’t wait another minute, pick right back up where we left off last year - Join today!

Have a look at some of these outstanding 2013-14 NFL records (including playoffs):
•Stan 'The Man: 63W 38L (62% wins) +$18,536
•Jude Ravo: 52W 32L (62% wins) +$17,287
•Ryan Taylor: 47W 27L (64% wins) +$16,422
•Larry Hertner: 49W 30L (62% wins) +$13,264
•James Vogel: 39W 23L (63% wins) +$12,853
•William Stillman: 39W 25L (61% wins) +$9,850

Let our Experts guide you this season, what are you waiting for? Join today!
•Early Bird Pricing (limited time only - ends August 3rd):
•Pre-Season Package: only $199.00 ($299.00 regular price)
•Pre-Season + Regular Season: only $1299.00 ($1599.00 regular price)

Don’t miss out on these huge savings, call us today @ 570-828-4091 and take advantage of the early bird pricing while it lasts - ends August 3rd.

"You'll be real glad you did" - Stan!
_______________________________

#973 CHI WHITE SOX @ #974 MINNESOTA - 7:10 PM
•White Sox LH Chris Sale (9-1, 2.03 ERA, WHIP: 0.863) - Sale opened his season by allowing three runs and striking out eight in 7 1/3 innings against Minnesota on March 31. He is 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA in his career against the Twins and 3-1 with a 2.83 mark at Target Field. The three-time All-Star entered Friday leading the American League in winning percentage (.900), WHIP (0.863) and hits per nine innings (6.3).

--KEY STAT: SALE is 4-13 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6.

--SALE is 7-20 against the run line (-15.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.7.

--SALE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after giving up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 2.0, OPPONENT 2.3.

•Twins LH Logan Darnell (NR) - Darnell, who has made one relief appearance in his major-league career, takes the rotation spot of Kyle Gibson, who is unable to go due to a stiff back. Darnell was 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 17 starts for Triple-A Rochester, allowing 96 hits and 40 walks in 94 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old was a sixth-round pick in 2010 out of the University of Kentucky.

#975 OAKLAND @ #976 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Athletics RH Sonny Gray (11-3, 2.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.156) - Gray has been dominant all month, going 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA while recording four straight quality starts. The 24-year-old allowed only one earned run and two hits over 6 2/3 innings in Sunday's win over Baltimore. Gray has the Rangers' number - he is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts against them, all this season.

•Rangers RH Nick Tepesch (3-6, 4.87 ERA, WHIP: 1.459) - Tepesch was scheduled to start Friday's series opener but was pushed back a day after pitching in relief in Tuesday's 14-inning loss to the New York Yankees. The 25-year-old is winless since June 27 and has been tagged with the loss three of the last four times he has taken the mound. The A's have roughed him up in four meetings (two starts), racking up 12 runs and 19 hits in 13 innings.

#977 DETROIT @ #978 LA ANGELS - 9:05 PM
•Tigers RH Justin Verlander (9-8, 4.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.445) - Verlander posted his third win in four starts Monday, allowing three runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings at Arizona. The 31-year-old has surrendered at least three runs in 11 of his last 13 outings and has yet to keep an opponent under two runs this season. Verlander has had his difficulties with Los Angeles over his career, going 4-5 with a 4.08 ERA in 12 starts.

--KEY STAT: VERLANDER is 6-13 (-17.0 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VERLANDER 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1.

•Angels RH Matt Shoemaker (7-3, 4.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.299) - Shoemaker had his modest two-game winning streak snapped by Baltimore on Monday as he yielded four runs and five hits while striking out 10 over 5 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old picked up a win in relief in his previous appearance, allowing two runs and five hits in 3 2/3 frames against Toronto after replacing an injured Jered Weaver. Shoemaker, who is 4-2 at home this season, never has faced the Tigers.

Interleague
#979 MIAMI @ #980 HOUSTON - 7:10 PM
•Marlins RH Tom Koehler (6-7, 3.85 ERA, WHIP: 1.223) - Koehler is winless in his last three starts, but has surrendered only four runs over 13 innings during the last two in which he did not factor in the decision. The Bronx, N.Y. native has notched just one victory in his last eight starts, but has held opponents to a .227 average overall in 2014. Koehler, who is 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA on the road, will face Houston for the first time in his career.

--KEY STAT: KOEHLER is 7-0 OVER (+7.1 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KOEHLER 5.1, OPPONENT 5.1.

•Astros RH Jarred Cosart (9-6, 4.23 ERA, WHIP: 1.437) - Cosart is 5-1 in his last seven starts, but has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) over 15 2/3 innings while going 1-1 in the last three turns. The 24-year-old Texan yielded only two homers in his last 13 starts after opponents went deep five times in the first six. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is 2-for-2 with a double versus Cosart, who will make his first-ever start against the Marlins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
By David Schwab

The 2014 CFL season is just four weeks old and we are already seeing a major disparity between a West Division that has four teams with a .500 record or better and an East Division that so far has combined to win just three games straight up.

Last Thursday, Edmonton won the battle of two unbeaten teams in the West with a 26-3 victory over Winnipeg as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The total stayed well UNDER the 54-point closing line. Ottawa kicked off Friday’s double-header with its first ever CFL victory as the RedBlacks with a tight 18-17 win against Toronto as a one-point home underdog. That total stayed UNDER the 52-point line. Calgary remained perfect in the West with a 10-7 win over Hamilton at home on Friday night as a 9 ½-point favorite and the total stayed UNDER the 51-point closing line.

In the only game on Saturday’s slate in Week 4, British Columbia pasted Montreal 41-5 as a 7 ½-point home favorite to even its mark after a 0-2 SU start. It was a clean sweep for the UNDER play with the total line in that game set at 48 ½ points.


Saturday, July 26

Ottawa (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Hamilton (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Hamilton -4½
Total: 48½

Game Overview

The RedBlacks earned their first victory of the season behind Henry Burris throwing the ball and Chevon Walker running it on the ground. Neither player’s numbers were spectacular, but it was just enough to get the job done. You also have to give credit to the defense for its ability to shutdown Toronto when it needed to the most.

Hamilton had to turn to both Jeremiah Masoli and Dan LeFevour last week for injured quarterback Zach Collaros and the result was a grand total of seven points on a one-point play and two field goals. Collaros remains questionable for this Saturday while recovering from a blow to the head. The Tiger-Cats are ranked dead-last in scoring with an average of 13.7 points a game.

Betting Trends

The Tiger-Cats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at home.

Toronto (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Saskatchewan (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6
Total: 49½

Game Overview

Despite the fact that quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing with 1,280 yards while completing 70.9 percent of his throws, this has not always translated to points and more importantly wins. It also does not help when you have a defense that has given-up the most points (112) in the league.

The defending champs are fresh off a bye week that followed a disappointing 26-13 loss to BC in Week 3 as five-point home favorites. Saskatchewan has already lost to the Argonauts this season in a 48-15 beatdown in Week 2 as a two-point favorite on the road. Darian Durant has 622 passing yards in three games and he has completed just 55.3 percent of his 85 attempts.

Betting Trends

The Argonauts have won three of the last four meetings both SU and ATS and the total has gone OVER in all four games. The road team in this matchup is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings and Toronto is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Saskatchewan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Toronto (1-3) @ Saskatchewan (1-2) -- Argonauts' only win this season was 48-15 (+2) over Riders back in Week 2, their third win in last four series games, with all four going over total. Argos ran ball for 161 yards, had three takeaways, but lost two games since, scoring only 16 ppg in losses to Calgary/Ottawa. Roughriders had last week off after scoring 15-13 points in last two games, including a home loss to Lions. Riders allowed 34 rushing yards in their last two games. Home favorites are 6-7 vs spread in first four weeks of season.

Montreal (1-3) @ Hamilton (0-3) -- TiCats' first home game in Hamilton in 637 days, as their new stadium debuts here, with TiCats 0-3, losing last two games by 4-3 points, with bye in between. Hamilton turned ball over 10 times in three games (-4), were outscored 41-15 in first half of games. TiCats won four of last five series games, beating Alouettes in OT in playoffs last fall. All three Hamilton games stayed under total; hey've yet to lead at halftime (0-2-1 in first halves). Montreal is 0-2 on road, losing by 21-36 points (25 for 66 passing)- Als' offense is gaining 170 ypg on road, 287 ypg at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arena Football (AFL)

Playoff Spot, Bragging Rights, On the Line in Keystone Collision
By MIKEY WONSOVER

The AFL season is winding down.

With just one week left in the regular season, the playoff picture is coming into focus. The matchups of Arizona versus Portland, San Jose versus Spokane, and Orlando versus Pittsburgh are already set for the 2014 AFL Postseason. But the last wildcard spot and No. 4 seed in the American Conference is still up for grabs.

The Philadelphia Soul (9-8) and the Tampa Bay Storm (8-9) have everything riding on the last week of the season. With a win or Storm loss, the Soul can clinch the last playoff spot. But if Tampa Bay wins and Philadelphia falls, the Storm can steal the final wildcard spot. If this late-season drama wasn’t enough for the Soul, they will be playing their last game of the regular season in enemy territory against one of the hottest teams in the League.

Philadelphia will make the five-hour trip to Pittsburgh on Saturday in the ninth meeting in Keystone Collision history. The Soul held a 4-2 advantage in the series heading into this year, but the Power have turned the tables this season. The game between the two Pennsylvania teams is unlike the regular week-to-week AFL matchups.

“There certainly is a different atmosphere,” Power head coach Ron James said of the Keystone Collision rivalry. “There are a couple aspects to it when you’re playing an in-state rival in your own division. The biggest aspect of it is that it juices up the crowd. When we go down there, the Philadelphia crowd really likes to see Pittsburgh take their lumps so to speak. I think it’s the same thing here for our Pittsburgh crowd. They like to get after the Philadelphia folks as well. We’ve played them twice already, both were fantastic football games.”

The Power have won the previous two games against the Soul this season by a combined nine points. Pittsburgh took the first game 65-57 in Week 8, thanks to an eight-touchdown-to-no-interception performance by Power quarterback Tommy Grady. The Week 14 matchup was an instant classic.

Soul quarterback Dan Raudabaugh put Philadelphia up 56-54 after a three-yard touchdown pass to V’Keon Lacey with just 35 seconds left in the game. A failed onside kick by the Soul gave the Power prime field position at the Philadelphia 13-yard line. That gave kicker Julian Rauch more than enough room to connect on a 23-yard field goal as time expired, giving Pittsburgh a one-point victory. Close losses have doomed the Soul this season.

“We’ve struggled finishing games,” defensive back LaRico Stevenson said. “Not making plays when we’re supposed to make plays. It’s things that we’ve done to ourselves that have really hurt us. Not finishing plays, not catching balls when we’re supposed to, not making tackles when we’re supposed to, blowing coverage. All of the aspects of hurting a team, we’ve done it.”

Stevenson has been on both sides of the Keystone Collision. The five-year AFL veteran spent time with the Power in 2011 and 2012 before joining the Soul during the 2012 season. He endured a breakout season in his first campaign in Philadelphia, finishing with a career-high 74 tackles and seven interceptions in 2013.

“It was a different experience,” Stevenson said of his time in Pittsburgh. “Ever since I’ve been in Philadelphia, it’s a big notch up from where I was at. I love Pittsburgh, but man Philly is totally different. I love it here.”

Having played for both teams in the American East rivalry has given Stevenson a unique perspective.

“When I was there, the rivalry was intense,” Stevenson said. “Now that I’m here, the Pittsburgh fans and Philadelphia Soul fans are totally different. Our fans are great. What I’ve seen since I’ve been here, it’s made me love this game a little bit more every time I play against Pittsburgh. It’s totally different for me. I get pumped up for all the games, they’re all the same to me at the end of the day, but it’s going to be a little bit more for this one right here because of who we’re playing.”

Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have had remarkably different seasons. The Soul have the richer history of the two teams, winning the ArenaBowl in 2008 and reaching the championship game in 2012 and 2013, but Pittsburgh has flipped the script this season. The Power are in the midst of a franchise-record 11-game winning streak, with their last loss coming in Week 7 to a then-undefeated Cleveland Gladiators squad. Pittsburgh has the third-most wins in the League this season with a record of 14-3, while Philadelphia has yet to clinch a playoff spot. The turnaround season for Pittsburgh has had a monumental affect on the football-crazed city.

“I think it’s got to feel great for the organization and our fan base,” James said. “For me, I don’t know any different. I’m used to being in tough divisions out in the West with Spokane, Arizona, and San Jose, and now with Cleveland and Philadelphia. It’s great competition and I love it. Hopefully our fans get something special out of it. The fans here in Pittsburgh are rabid football fans. They’ve really been pining away for a winner here in the AFL and finally we’ve been able to give that to them. I know it’s been a special season for our fan base and our ownership group. We’re just hopeful that we could push this thing to the limit this year.”

The Soul aren’t accustomed to losing, but the team now has a chip on its shoulder when it matters most.

“It is a different feeling,” Stevenson said. “We are predominately one of the top teams. This year injuries and not finishing games has hurt us. Now that we’re at the bottom, scratching and fighting for the top, we want it much more. It makes your team hungrier, it makes us closer, it makes us know what are goals are. We want to beat this team much more.”

Rivalries are intense. Emotions run high, physicality is prevalent, and aggressive play is the norm, but on-field animosity won’t get in the way of a cherished friendship between the opposing head coaches.

“For me it’s always special when we play Philadelphia because one of my former players, Clint Dolezel, is the head coach at Philadelphia,” said James, who coached Dolezel in stints with the Houston ThunderBears and Las Vegas Gladiators. “I know Clint and his family real well. It’s always fun to play those guys. It’s always fun to compete against your friends.”

The Keystone Collision goes beyond the state of Pennsylvania. The entire AFL and its fan base will benefit from what is becoming one of the best rivalries in the game.

“It’s very important for us, for the League, and for the fans. It’s a great rivalry,” Stevenson said. “Pittsburgh has been real good this year, one of the top teams. We right now are trying to get to the playoffs. There are players on our team that have been in situations like this with a playoff atmosphere. We’re ready for it. With this game, it’s exciting right now, I’m telling you. It’s going to be a good game this weekend.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AFL

Division Champs to Meet in Regular Season Finale on CBS Sports Network
AFL Communications

ORLANDO – The South Division champion Orlando Predators (10-7) will square off with the West Division champion Arizona Rattlers (15-2) in a battle of playoff-bound teams this weekend. The “NET10 Wireless Arena Football Saturday” matchup is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

This will be the first meeting between the two teams since July 2013, when the Rattlers defeated the Predators, 84-56, in “The Jungle”. It will also be Arizona’s first time back in Orlando since defeating the Philadelphia Soul at ArenaBowl XXVI last August. The Predators will be looking for their first win against the Rattlers since 2006.

Arizona wrapped up the No. 1 seed and home field advantage in the National Conference in Week 15, while Orlando comes into Week 20 fresh off clinching the No. 2 seed in the American Conference last week. Both teams will host playoff games next Sunday in the AFL Quarterfinals, with Arizona returning home to face the Portland Thunder and Orlando welcoming in the Pittsburgh Power.

The Rattlers come into the game boasting one of the most dynamic offenses in AFL history, led by AFL MVP candidate Nick Davila. The “Latin Laser” has tossed a franchise-record 121 touchdown passes this season, the second-highest single-season total in AFL history. He also moved into 10th place all-time for career passing yards in last week’s 65-55 win over the Portland Thunder, bringing his five-year yardage total to 24,585. Those stats have been helped along by a star-studded cast of characters in the Arizona receiving corps. Rod Windsor is four touchdown receptions shy of his own single-season franchise record of 47, while Maurice Purify and Tysson Poots continue to force AFL defenses into costly mismatches.

Bernard Morris figures to get the start at quarterback for the Predators. Morris, who was added to the lineup after opening day starter Jason Boltus went down with an injury midway through the year, has been electric for the Predators this season, most recently accounting for nine total touchdowns in the team’s 70-64 overtime victory against the New Orleans VooDoo last week. The AFL’s best dual-threat signal-caller passed for six scores and rushed for three more in the game. He also eclipsed 10,000 passing yards for his career a week ago. Orlando will need another big performance from Morris this week against an experienced and opportunistic Rattlers defense. NET10 Wireless Rookie of the Year candidate Greg Carr should help the cause, as the former Florida State Seminole star leads all rookies in receiving with 111 catches for 1,413 yards and 36 touchdowns this season. Fellow first-year wideouts Kendal Thompkins and Khalil Paden have also shown big-time playmaking ability, while midseason acquisition Larry Brackins has provided some much needed veteran leadership. The sixth-year pro has also shown he still has plenty left in the tank, leading the team with three touchdown grabs last week.

Orlando will have their hands full defensively against the high-powered Arizona attack. Pass rushers Michael Janac and Earl Okine will have their work cut out for them, as sacks have been hard to come by all season against the very reliable Rattlers offensive line. If Orlando cannot find a way to put pressure on Davila, the Predators secondary could be in for a long day. However, that unit has no shortage of talent. Jack linebacker Tanner Varner forced two fumbles a week ago and is one interception shy of 25 for his career, while veterans Eddie Moten and Tracy Belton will be anxiously waiting for opportunities to contend for a few more picks of their own.

For the Rattlers, opposing teams have struggled to find weak spots in the defense all season. The franchise’s all-time leader in sacks, Anttaj Hawthorne, mans the middle, while former Defensive Lineman of the Year, Cliff Dukes, and perennially underrated Mac linebacker Tyre Glasper lead the pass rush. Three former All-Arena selections headline the secondary, with Jack linebacker Jeremy Kellem and defensive backs Arkeith Brown and Marquis Floyd – the League’s leader in interceptions with 13 – all turning in outstanding seasons. Rookie Allen Chapman has also come on strong as of late, returning an interception 40 yards for a touchdown last week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AFL

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | LA KISS at JACKSONVILLE
Play Against - Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) average team (+/- 0.5 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.5 to 1.3 YPP)
92-49 since 1997. ( 65.2% | 38.1 units )
8-5 this year. ( 61.5% | 2.5 units )

ARENA | LA KISS at JACKSONVILLE
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (LA KISS) after playing a game where both teams scored 58 or more points
137-87 over the last 10 seasons. ( 61.2% | 41.3 units )
15-13 this year. ( 53.6% | 0.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC on FOX 12 Preview
By Brian Edwards


The Ultimate Fighting Championship will bring a 12-fight card to SAP Center in San Jose this Saturday night. In the main-event tilt on FOX, welterweight contenders 'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler and Matt 'The Immortal' Brown will collide for the right to face Johny Hendricks for the 170-pound belt.

Most betting shops opened Lawler (23-10 MMA, 8-4 UFC) as a favorite in the -260 to -280 range. As of early Friday afternoon, Bovada had Lawler installed as the -370 'chalk,' while Brown was available for a +280 return (risk $100 to win $280). Gamblers can find a better payout for Brown (+310).

The total for 'over/under' wagers is 2.5 rounds. Bettors have to lay a -145 price for the 'under,' while 'over' backers can garner a +115 payout.

In his second tour of duty in the UFC, the 32-year-old Lawler has reached his prime and done his best work inside the cage. He's won four of five fights, including brutal knockouts of Josh Koscheck and Jake Ellenberger. His only loss came to Johny Hendricks in an epic five-round slugfest at UFC 171 on March 15, when the judges gave the decision to 'Bigg Rigg' by a 48-47 score on all three cards.

Brown (21-11 MMA, 12-5 UFC) has won seven consecutive fights, including a thrilling comeback win over Erick Silva in his main-event debut at UFC Fight Night 40. Brown got floored by a hard body kick from Silva early in the first round, but he fought off a couple of submission attempts after giving up his back. Brown eventually got back to his feet and dominate the last two minutes of the opening stanza.

In the second and third rounds, it was Matt Brown 101. He punished Silva with a wild array of strikes, knees and kicks. Silva, whose chin had been a question mark in previous bouts, took the beating and kept coming. The Brazilian even halted Brown's momentum a couple of times by landing body kicks to the same spot that initially hurt Brown in Round 1.

But fighting in his home state in front of a crowd in Cincinnati that clearly had his back, Brown shook off those body blows and eventually finished Silva with a violent barrage of punches. He hooked up his betting supporters with a +210 return (paid $210 on $100 wagers).

During his seven-fight winning spree, Brown has cashed underdog tickets four times. His victories over Jordan Mein and Stephen Thompson scored his backers payouts of +300 and +190, respectively. Brown's last five wins have come via the KO route.

Prediction: This scrap has Fight of the Night (and potentially Fight of the Year) written all over it. Both guys are talented on the ground, but they are at their best standing. Lawler has looked incredible lately and he has clearly faced tougher competition. That's the knock on Brown -- that his last seven victims haven't been from the upper tier of the welterweight loop. Only two of those foes (Mike Pyle and Silva, No.'s 13 and 15, respectively) are currently ranked. If this is a pick 'em matchup or if Lawler is -160ish or cheaper, then 'Ruthless' would be the play. However, that's not the case. Gamblers can get Brown at +300 or better and, therefore, that's my suggestion for a small wager. With both men's propensity to finish, I'm tempted to look at the 'under,' but the -145 price tag is a little expensive for my taste.

In the co-main event, Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson will face Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a crucial light-heavyweight showdown. As of Friday, most spots had Johnson installed as an enormous -500 'chalk.' 'Little Nog' is +400 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $400). The total is 1.5 rounds ('over' -150, 'under' +120).

Johnson (17-4 MMA, 8-4 UFC) made an explosive return to the Octagon at UFC 172, easily defeating Phil Davis by unanimous decision (30-27 three times). Rumble cashed tickets as a +180 underdog.

Johnson took a pink slip from the UFC early in 2012 after he missed weight by 12 pounds for a middleweight clash against Vitor Belfort, who nevertheless submitted Johnson at UFC 142. While toiling in the minor leagues, Johnson rolled to seven consecutive wins, including a victory over former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski.

Now that he's fighting at 205 pounds, Johnson appears to have put his weight-cutting issues in the past. And if his performance against Davis is an indicator, he looks like a serious contender in the light-heavyweight division.

Nogueira (21-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC) hasn't fought in more than 17 months due to various injuries. However, the Brazilian legend looked sharp in his last outing at UFC 156, beating Rashad Evans by unanimous decision. Prior to that victory, 'Little Nog' destroyed UFC Hall of Famer and former 205-pound kingpin Tito Ortiz.

Prediction: How much does the 38-year-old Brazilian have left in the tank? Can he deal with Johnson's speed? Will cage rust be a factor, or could the lengthy layoff be a good thing for Nogueira? I think Johnson gets the victory, but he's entirely too expensive in this situation. You either take Nogueira or pass. I'll pass.

In the featherweight division, veteran Clay Guida (31-14 MMA, 11-8 UFC) will take on Dennis Bermudez. Most books are listing Bermudez as a -155 favorite, while 'The Carpenter' is +135 on the comeback. The 'over/under' is 2.5 rounds ('over' -280, 'under' +230).

Bermudez (13-3 MMA, 6-1 UFC) has won six fights in a row since getting submitted by Diego Brandao in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter 14. 'The Menace' is coming off a TKO win over Jimy Hettes that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

Prediction: I'll have a small play on Guida as a short underdog in a fight he absolutely has to have if he hopes to make a push toward a title shot.

The main card will start with a lightweight matchup between Josh Thomson and Bobby Green. Thomson was originally slated to take on Michael Johnson in what would have been a very interesting battle. Now the 13th-ranked Green gets an excellent opportunity to pull an upset and slide into the top 10 of the 155-pound loop.

Thomson, ranked No. 3 in the division, is a -250 favorite at most shops. Green is a +210 underdog (risk $100 to win $210). The total is 2.5 rounds ('over' -190, 'under' +160).

Green hasn't tasted defeat in nearly three years, winning seven straight fights, including his first three in the UFC. He is the former King of the Cage lightweight champ.

Thomson (20-6-0-1 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is coming off a split-decision loss to Benson Henderson. During the first round of that setback, Thomson sustained a broken thumb. Before losing to Henderson, Thomson became the first fighter to KO Nate Diaz.

Prediction: I think Thomson wins, but I'm not going to risk the expensive price. I'll pass.

The first four fights on the card will be on UFC Fight Pass (subscription only), while the last eight bouts will be on FOX.

**Octagon Extras**

-- I like Daron Cruickhshank as a +205 underdog against Jorge Masvidal. Also, I'll be on Kyle Kingsbury as a +125 underdog vs. Patrick Cummins.

-- Alexander 'The Mauler' Gustafsson had to pull out of his UFC 178 showdown against Jon 'Bones' Jones after tearing his meniscus while training in Sweden. Therefore, Daniel 'DC' Cormier will take on the long-time 205-pound kingpin. Sportsbooks opened the champ as a -170 favorite a few days ago, with Cormier listed as the +145 underdog. On Friday, however, Sportsbooks had Jones as a -230 'chalk,' with Cormier as a +170 'dog.

-- Nick Diaz signed a three-fight contract extension with the UFC on Thursday. All indications are that Diaz will probably return to the Octagon to face Anderson Silva on Super Bowl Weekend.

-- Joe Riggs is returning to the promotion to face Paulo Thiago at UFC Fight Night 51 in Brazil.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* A's -180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

Toronto at Saskatchewan

The Roughriders host a Toronto team that is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 26 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (7/23)

Game 125-126: Ottawa at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.243; Hamilton 116.131 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 12; 44 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-4 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Toronto at Saskatchewan (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 107.401; Saskatchewan 118.317 Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 11; 54 Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 50 Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Indiana at San Antonio

The Fever head to San Antonio tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Indiana is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 26 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 110.869; Seattle 113.376 Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 142 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 148 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+4); Under

Game 603-604: Indiana at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.818; San Antonio 112.715 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 144 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 151 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: New York at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.587; Phoenix 125.907 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 16 1/2; 164 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 158 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | INDIANA at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% | -2.2 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
137-43 since 1997. ( 76.1% | 0.0 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at PHOENIX
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off a road win
291-181 since 1997. ( 61.7% | 91.9 units )
9-18 this year. ( 33.3% | -10.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'NL West Showdown'

The second of a pivotal three-game series between the top two clubs in the NL West is Saturday's baseball betting focus as Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants square off in AT&T Park. The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound carrying an 11-2 record, 1.92 ERA to the hill. The left-hander in great form is ridding a perfect 9-0 team start record allowing 2 or less runs in eight of the nine trips to the mound. Kershaw will be matching pitches with Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong, who has a 5-7 record, 3.99 ERA. In contrast, the Giants' right-hander is struggling posting a 1-5 record the past eight with San Francisco 2-6 over the span. The starters coming into the game from opposite ends of the spectrum is bad new for Giants. The fact Kershaw is a southpaw is another reason Giants take a step backwards, as they club is just 3-8 last 11 vs a left-handed starter. A few other telling baseball betting nuggets that favor Los Angeles in this one. Dodgers have won 15 of Kershaw's last 19 July starts, have won 7 of his 8 road starts this season and have won 6 of his last 8 tossing in San Francisco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | MIAMI at HOUSTON
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after getting shut out
154-89 since 1997. ( 63.4% | 56.9 units )
10-6 this year. ( 62.5% | 3.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY
CLEVELAND is 35-11 (+24.1 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.3)