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SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Baltimore @ SEATTLE
Baltimore -105 over SEATTLE
(Risking 3.15 units - To Win: 3.00)
Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s behind who is pitching for the Orioles, as this one is all about fading Chris Young of the Mariners. The Orioles find ways to defeat strong pitchers and usually beat up on poor ones and Young fits the bill of the latter. Chris Young has started 19 games and has a 3.22 ERA after 117 innings. How can that be? Here’s a guy with the worst groundball rate in the league at 24%. Over his last five starts, his groundball rate is even worse at 21%. He has just 70 K’s in those 117 innings and it’s only a matter of time before he strings together a series of disasters. Young has been the beneficiary of a ridiculously high 88% strand rate over 50% of his starts. Overall, his strand rate is 80% and his xERA is 4.99. Young is 35-years old and totaled only 44 IP in 2010/11 due to shoulder issues, and missed most of 2013 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite his 6’10” height, Young isn’t a power pitcher. His fastball is generally in the 84 mph range and he’s never piled up big strikeout numbers. Chris Young is pitching on borrowed time. His skills are horrible and if this home-run hitting team doesn’t get to him, it’ll be because of the yard he pitches in but even that can’t mask his deficiencies much longer. The Orioles at a cheap price against Young is perhaps the best value on today’s board.
Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +121 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Leave it to the New York Yankees to bring in another aging veteran. Chris Capuano is 39 years old and hasn’t started a game since September of last year. He made 28 relief appearances this season as a member of the Red Sox before they released him. The Rockies picked him up and sent him to the minors where he was subsequently dealt to the Yanks for cash considerations. In Capuano’s last five outings in June, he surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks in just four innings. The left-handed Capuano's four 2014 minor league starts show promise (21 strikeouts and five walks in 19.1 innings), but a major league career 39% fly-ball rate and 1.2 HR/9 makes him a huge risk at this launching pad for right-handed hitters (Yankee Stadium increases HR’s by 16% compared to rest of league. Capuano’s 1.55 WHIP this season (1.41 last year in 24 starts for the Dodgers) almost assures us that men will be on base when one or more Blue Jays go deep.
Drew Hutchison has always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 102 in 113 innings. Hutchison has one of the unluckiest profiles in the game with a low 68% strand rate on the year to go along with an abnormal 32% hit rate. Once that normalizes his ERA will decrease. On the road, Hutchison is 4-4 with an ERA of 2.97. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. Hutchison has been whacked in two straight starts and may be a little shell-shocked but he and the Blue Jays are a strong value play taking back a tag against a guy that couldn’t crack the Rockies horrible staff.
MLB
Baltimore @ SEATTLE
Baltimore -105 over SEATTLE
(Risking 3.15 units - To Win: 3.00)
Frankly, we couldn’t give a rat’s behind who is pitching for the Orioles, as this one is all about fading Chris Young of the Mariners. The Orioles find ways to defeat strong pitchers and usually beat up on poor ones and Young fits the bill of the latter. Chris Young has started 19 games and has a 3.22 ERA after 117 innings. How can that be? Here’s a guy with the worst groundball rate in the league at 24%. Over his last five starts, his groundball rate is even worse at 21%. He has just 70 K’s in those 117 innings and it’s only a matter of time before he strings together a series of disasters. Young has been the beneficiary of a ridiculously high 88% strand rate over 50% of his starts. Overall, his strand rate is 80% and his xERA is 4.99. Young is 35-years old and totaled only 44 IP in 2010/11 due to shoulder issues, and missed most of 2013 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite his 6’10” height, Young isn’t a power pitcher. His fastball is generally in the 84 mph range and he’s never piled up big strikeout numbers. Chris Young is pitching on borrowed time. His skills are horrible and if this home-run hitting team doesn’t get to him, it’ll be because of the yard he pitches in but even that can’t mask his deficiencies much longer. The Orioles at a cheap price against Young is perhaps the best value on today’s board.
Toronto @ N.Y. YANKEES
Toronto +121 over N.Y. YANKEES
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Leave it to the New York Yankees to bring in another aging veteran. Chris Capuano is 39 years old and hasn’t started a game since September of last year. He made 28 relief appearances this season as a member of the Red Sox before they released him. The Rockies picked him up and sent him to the minors where he was subsequently dealt to the Yanks for cash considerations. In Capuano’s last five outings in June, he surrendered 10 earned runs on 14 hits and four walks in just four innings. The left-handed Capuano's four 2014 minor league starts show promise (21 strikeouts and five walks in 19.1 innings), but a major league career 39% fly-ball rate and 1.2 HR/9 makes him a huge risk at this launching pad for right-handed hitters (Yankee Stadium increases HR’s by 16% compared to rest of league. Capuano’s 1.55 WHIP this season (1.41 last year in 24 starts for the Dodgers) almost assures us that men will be on base when one or more Blue Jays go deep.
Drew Hutchison has always flashed big strikeout potential and currently leads the Blue Jays staff in Ks with 102 in 113 innings. Hutchison has one of the unluckiest profiles in the game with a low 68% strand rate on the year to go along with an abnormal 32% hit rate. Once that normalizes his ERA will decrease. On the road, Hutchison is 4-4 with an ERA of 2.97. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. Hutchison has been whacked in two straight starts and may be a little shell-shocked but he and the Blue Jays are a strong value play taking back a tag against a guy that couldn’t crack the Rockies horrible staff.
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