7-28-14

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Reds/ Dbacks Under 7.5

Phils/Mets Over 7

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Hondo

Hondo had his good splitter working Sunday when his victory with the Metamucils overwhelmed his loss with the Small Bears and reduced the deficit to 1,435 moneys.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will try to avoid a loss with Lohse — 10 units on the Brews to do some damage against the formerly invincible Rays.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Yankees on Sunday and likes the Rays on Monday.

The deficit is 388 sirignanos.

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Preview: Blue Jays (55-49) at Red Sox (46-57)

Game: 1
Venue: Fenway Park
Date: July 28, 2014 7:10 PM EDT


The Boston Red Sox admitted last week that R.A. Dickey's knuckleballer can be tough to decipher.

An exception for them to that this year has been Xander Bogaerts, who was just given a rest as he works through some issues with his swing.

Dickey tries again to baffle the Red Sox, who will likely have Bogaerts back in the lineup Monday night at home against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto (56-50) took three of four from Boston last week to improve to 7-3 in the season series, with Dickey (8-10, 4.04 ERA) beating Clay Buchholz in last Wednesday's 6-4 victory. Those two starters will meet again in the opener of this three-game set.

Dickey allowed a three-run homer in the first inning to David Ortiz before yielding one run over his final five innings to improve to 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox (48-57) this year. He has one walk and 11 strikeouts in those outings.

"That knuckleball is so unpredictable," said Boston first baseman Mike Napoli, who is 2 for 6 off Dickey this year. "We had it going early then he kind of shut us down."

Ortiz is 5 for 15 in his career against Dickey, who has started at Fenway Park once - a complete game in a 5-2 loss Sept. 22. But Ortiz is 1 for 3 against the right-hander this year, which pales in comparison to how Bogaerts has gone 4 for 6 with two doubles.

Boston manager John Farrell gave Bogaerts the day off from Sunday's 3-2 win at Tampa Bay. The third baseman is hitting .142 over his last 28 games.

"(He's) trying to keep some momentum going with the adjustments he's continuing to work on daily," Farrell told MLB's official website. "We've seen it gain a little traction inside of a given game, but occasionally there's some reversion back to him being a little bit quick to the front side - some of the same challenges that he's been facing for some time now."

Bogaerts' .333 career average against Toronto is his highest against any AL club.

Buchholz (5-6, 5.50) looks to recover after he lost for the first time in three starts Wednesday, allowing five runs in six innings. He walked four and struck out one.

"I let that lead go," Buchholz said. "I'll take the blame for this one, for sure."

The Blue Jays have won the last five times he has started against them at Fenway, with the right-hander going 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA in that span. Buchholz is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three outings against Toronto this year.

It's unclear if Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind, out since July 7 with a broken foot, will be activated. He's a .348 hitter off Buchholz.

Jose Reyes is 13 for 39 in his last nine games, scoring one run in each of his last six.

The Blue Jays took the final two games of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium, winning 5-4 on Sunday. The Red Sox ended a five-game slide Sunday, as Ortiz homered for the fifth time in seven games.

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Game of the Day: Blue Jays at Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-135, 8.5)

The Toronto Blue Jays look to take advantage of the sinking Boston Red Sox for the second time in a week as they open a three-game series in Boston on Monday. Toronto took three of four at home against the Red Sox to begin last week before winning two of three at the New York Yankees over the weekend, pulling to within three games of first-place Baltimore in the American League East. Overall, the Blue Jays have won seven of nine following a 2-9 stretch.

After dropping the final three games in Toronto, Boston lost two of three at Tampa Bay to extend its misery. The defending world champs scored 14 runs over the final six games of their road trip after producing 14 in the opener of the trek. The Blue Jays swept three straight by a combined score of 20-10 in their last visit to Boston in May.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Boston -135 and with some early action on the Red Sox, jumped as high as -139 before settling back down at the opening number. The total currently sits at 8.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These two A.L. East rivals are heading in opposite directions again with the Jays coming off an encouraging series in the Bronx and the BoSox dropping yet another series against a division foe (Tampa Bay). With that said, I do expect to see the Sox put up a serious fight in this series. Clay Buchholz is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. It remains to be seen whether he can step up against a surging lineup, however." - Covers Experts' Sean Murphy

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have made Boston a -135 favorite. R.A. Dickey has struggled over his last 3 starts (5.2 ERA), but he is 2-0 vs Red Sox this season (3.5 ERA) so that’s why Boston isn't a bigger fave." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH R.A. Dickey (8-10, 4.04 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (5-6, 5.50)

Dickey got the win after allowing four runs and nine hits in six innings against Boston on Wednesday, just the second victory in his last eight decisions. The knuckleballer has worked at least six innings in eight consecutive starts while striking out at least five in each of his last seven outings. Dickey also let up a run in 6 1/3 solid innings to defeat the Red Sox at home on April 27 but he is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in five career games (one start) at Fenway Park.

Buchholz had seemingly turned a corner after a rocky, injury-marred start to his season, but has been more pedestrian in his last two starts. He has given up eight earned runs on 16 hits and four walks over 12 innings in those outings, including six frames opposite Dickey last week. The 29-year-old has a 6.32 ERA in seven home starts, allowing 52 hits in 37 innings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of wagers are backing the Blue Jays at +125.

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Braves(-165)

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EZWINNERS

2* (952) Braves -$160
2* (967) A's -$190

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | PHILADELPHIA at NY METS
Play On – Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL
157-108 since 1997. ( 59.2% | 60.3 units )
5-7 this year. ( 41.7% | -1.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | OAKLAND at HOUSTON
OAKLAND is 26-10 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in Road games on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.4) , OPPONENT (3.2)

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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

WNBA | INDIANA at LOS ANGELES
Play On – Home teams (LOS ANGELES) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
129-72 since 1997. ( 64.2% | 49.8 units )
1-6 this year. ( 14.3% | -5.6 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at LOS ANGELES
Play Against – Home teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) terrible defensive team – allowing 77+ points/game on the season, in July games
146-128 since 1997. ( 53.3% | 0.0 units )
19-15 this year. ( 55.9% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at LOS ANGELES
Play Under – Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after a game where they covered the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games
131-74 since 1997. ( 63.9% | 49.6 units )
6-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 6.0 units )

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Baseball Crusher
Washington Nationals -136 over Miami Marlins
(System Record: 69-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 69-45

Soccer Crusher
Tigre + All Boys UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 615-21, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 615-505-87

Here are the rest of his baseball plays for today...


New York Mets -133 over Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds -122 over Arizona Dbacks
New York Yankees +136 over Texas Rangers

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Behind The Bets

Astros +181

Pirates +149

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GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Brewers
Team B: Rays
Pick: Brewers moneyline
Risk:$100 to win $117
Time: 4:00 PM PT

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Inside Vegas Sharp Info Play / Cory Kluge Jr.

2 MLB Sharp Plays

San Diego Padres +145 ML

Chicago Cubs -134 ML

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DIY SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS / Sam Oconnel

Pittsburgh Pirates+145

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Time: Monday 07/28 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Tampa Bay -129 (moneyline)

The Tampa Bay Rays were left for dead in June when they fell to 18 games below .500, and appeared to be done. This team never quit, and has battled all the way back to contention on the strength of 9 wins in their last 10 games. The Rays are just 4.5 games behind the race for the second Wild Card spot, and the strength of this team has been outstanding pitching. The Tampa Bay staff has allowed more than 3 runs in just 1 of the last 10 games. Milwaukee opened the season a sizzling 20-7, but have actually been a below .500 team since, so they have not played as good as the record looks over their last 79 games. The Brewers have had fits when competing on the road in interleague play where they own a 15-38 record in their last 53 interleague tilts vs. a right-hander. Tampa Bay is 20-6 in their last 26 overall – even better than the sizzling Brewers’ start. Take Tampa Bay.