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Sportwagers
Toronto @ BOSTON
Toronto +126 over BOSTON
Posted at 12:15 PM EST
The Blue Jays might be ready to make a serious run. After losing 14-1 to these Red Sox on July 21 the Jays have caught fire. They have won five of six and seven of their past nine games. Over its past 10 games, Toronto is first in the majors in team batting average at .305 and they’re in the top three in several other key offensive categories as well. Clay Buchholz doesn’t figure to slow them down either, as Toronto is quite familiar with him. Scared they are not. Buchholz’s last start was also against the Blue Jays in which he took the loss after allowing five runs in six innings and was in trouble throughout. In that outing, he walked four and struck out one. Buchholz takes on the Blue Jays for the fourth time this season and in the three previous starts he has a 6/9 K/BB split over 17.2 IP. In other words, he has not come close to fooling the Blue Jays and there’s no reason to believe that will change in this one.
R.A. Dickey has 37 K’s over his last 40 innings and his knuckleball has never looked better. How do we know that? Well, Dickey’s swing and miss rate over his last six starts is the highest of his career at 13%. Over that same span his WHIP is way down at 1.10, his walks are down and his groundball rate is up. Boston is almost always overpriced and we find another example of that here where Clay Buchholz does not belong in this range against one of the hottest hitting teams in the league.
Our Pick
Toronto +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)
Sportswagers
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +145 over SAN FRANCISCO
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
We always like playing against San Francisco after a weekend series with their biggest rivals and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Giants are cold. San Fran has dropped four straight and has scored just five runs over that span. The Giants will now take their shots at Vance Worley. As for being mediocre, well, Worley actually posted a negative **WAR (see explanation of WAR underneath this write-up) during a disastrous 2013 season for the Twins and he’s seen both his average fastball velocity and swinging strike rate decline year-to-year since he broke into the big leagues four seasons ago. To be fair, Worley blamed some of his struggles last year on elbow surgery during the previous offseason and biceps tendinitis early in the year. The good news is Worley brings with him a reputation for inducing groundballs, has a career 3.0 BB/9 over 333.1 innings and, it must be said, is still just 26 years old. In six starts and one relief appearance covering 40 innings this year, Worley is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He’s walked just seven batters while whiffing 27. He’s not going to dazzle but there are enough good vibes surrounding him right now that he deserves a look at this price in a good spot.
Madison Bumgarner is having a decent year and his overall numbers look very close to what he has produced in previous seasons. However, his performance at home has been the extreme opposite of what he has done on the road. In 10 home starts, he is just 4-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 59 innings. He has allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his 10 home starts, something he has done only once in 12 road starts. Bumgarner is showing signs of fatigue as well. His swing and miss rate has declined from 11% in April to 10% in May and June to just 8% in July. The incredibly high number of innings he's thrown (close to 900) by age 24 may be taking a toll and we’ll put that to the test here.
**WAR - Wins Above Replacement. WAR is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point.
Our Pick
Pittsburgh +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Toronto @ BOSTON
Toronto +126 over BOSTON
Posted at 12:15 PM EST
The Blue Jays might be ready to make a serious run. After losing 14-1 to these Red Sox on July 21 the Jays have caught fire. They have won five of six and seven of their past nine games. Over its past 10 games, Toronto is first in the majors in team batting average at .305 and they’re in the top three in several other key offensive categories as well. Clay Buchholz doesn’t figure to slow them down either, as Toronto is quite familiar with him. Scared they are not. Buchholz’s last start was also against the Blue Jays in which he took the loss after allowing five runs in six innings and was in trouble throughout. In that outing, he walked four and struck out one. Buchholz takes on the Blue Jays for the fourth time this season and in the three previous starts he has a 6/9 K/BB split over 17.2 IP. In other words, he has not come close to fooling the Blue Jays and there’s no reason to believe that will change in this one.
R.A. Dickey has 37 K’s over his last 40 innings and his knuckleball has never looked better. How do we know that? Well, Dickey’s swing and miss rate over his last six starts is the highest of his career at 13%. Over that same span his WHIP is way down at 1.10, his walks are down and his groundball rate is up. Boston is almost always overpriced and we find another example of that here where Clay Buchholz does not belong in this range against one of the hottest hitting teams in the league.
Our Pick
Toronto +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)
Sportswagers
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +145 over SAN FRANCISCO
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
We always like playing against San Francisco after a weekend series with their biggest rivals and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Giants are cold. San Fran has dropped four straight and has scored just five runs over that span. The Giants will now take their shots at Vance Worley. As for being mediocre, well, Worley actually posted a negative **WAR (see explanation of WAR underneath this write-up) during a disastrous 2013 season for the Twins and he’s seen both his average fastball velocity and swinging strike rate decline year-to-year since he broke into the big leagues four seasons ago. To be fair, Worley blamed some of his struggles last year on elbow surgery during the previous offseason and biceps tendinitis early in the year. The good news is Worley brings with him a reputation for inducing groundballs, has a career 3.0 BB/9 over 333.1 innings and, it must be said, is still just 26 years old. In six starts and one relief appearance covering 40 innings this year, Worley is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He’s walked just seven batters while whiffing 27. He’s not going to dazzle but there are enough good vibes surrounding him right now that he deserves a look at this price in a good spot.
Madison Bumgarner is having a decent year and his overall numbers look very close to what he has produced in previous seasons. However, his performance at home has been the extreme opposite of what he has done on the road. In 10 home starts, he is just 4-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 59 innings. He has allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his 10 home starts, something he has done only once in 12 road starts. Bumgarner is showing signs of fatigue as well. His swing and miss rate has declined from 11% in April to 10% in May and June to just 8% in July. The incredibly high number of innings he's thrown (close to 900) by age 24 may be taking a toll and we’ll put that to the test here.
**WAR - Wins Above Replacement. WAR is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point.
Our Pick
Pittsburgh +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
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