7-31-14

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT

#901 COLORADO @ #902 CHICAGO CUBS - 2:20 PM
•Rockies LH Pedro Hernandez (NR) - Hernandez got the call to make a spot start after the Rockies were forced to use scheduled starter Tyler Matzek during Tuesday's 16-inning marathon. The 25-year-old Venezuelan hasn't pitched in the majors since last season with Minnesota, where he went 3-3 with a 6.83 ERA in 14 games (12 starts). Hernandez has endured a rocky campaign at Triple-A Colorado Springs, going 6-6 with a 6.14 ERA in 18 games (16 starts).

•Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (5-2, 2.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.011) - Arrieta has recorded nine straight quality starts yet is in the midst of a four-start winless streak. The 28-year-old has emerged as the Cubs' most consistent starter, but they haven't rewarded him with much support of late and he didn't get a decision last time out despite holding the Cardinals to two runs over six innings. Arrieta has never faced the Rockies.

--KEY STAT: ARRIETA is 13-5 (+10.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ARRIETA 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9.

#903 ST LOUIS @ #904 SAN DIEGO - 3:40 PM
•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (7-8, 4.20 ERA, WHIP: 1.435) - Miller returned from a brief stint in the bullpen and held the Cubs to two runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings last Saturday. The 23-year-old made a case to stick in the rotation by retiring the first nine batters and not issuing a walk. Miller, who is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA in two career games (one start) against San Diego, owns a 7-3 mark with a 2.93 ERA in 21 career games (15 starts) after the All-Star break.

--KEY STAT: MILLER is 1-7 (-8.1 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 2.0, OPPONENT 5.6.

--MILLER is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 6.4, OPPONENT 3.3.

--MILLER is 1-10 against the run line (-10.0 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 2.6, OPPONENT 4.5.

--MILLER is 0-8 against the run line (-9.8 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 2.0, OPPONENT 5.6.

•Padres RH Odrisamer Despaigne (2-2, 1.66 ERA, WHIP: 1.105) - After posting a 1.31 ERA in his first five starts, Despaigne issued five walks and allowed five runs (two earned) over 3 2/3 innings against Atlanta last Saturday. “He was trying to be a little too fine, kind of hitting the corners instead of making pitches,” Padres catcher Yasmani Grandal told reporters. Opponents are batting .203 against the Cuban-born Despaigne, who was signed May 2 as a minor league free agent.

#905 PHILADELPHIA @ #906 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Phillies LH Cliff Lee (4-5, 3.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.411) - Lee is making his third start since spending more than two months on the disabled list and will be hoping for better results than his previous two turns. The 35-year-old allowed three runs on nine hits in a no-decision versus Arizona on Saturday after getting knocked around for six runs on 12 hits by San Francisco on July 21. Lee is 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 12 starts against Washington, including seven innings of two-run ball on May 2.

--KEY STAT: LEE is 32-19 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 5.0, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (6-6, 3.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.217) - Gonzalez was a hard-luck loser last time out, permitting one run on four hits over seven innings in a 1-0 defeat at Cincinnati to extend his winless drought to three starts. Gonzalez had an identical line over 7 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss at Philadelphia on May 4 to fall to 5-3 with a stellar 2.48 ERA against the Phillies. Gonzalez has stymied slugger Ryan Howard, holding him hitless in 11 at-bats with six strikeouts.

--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 28-10 (+16.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.2, OPPONENT 3.0.

--GONZALEZ is 25-7 (+16.6 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 2.3.
____________________________________________

#907 CINCINNATI @ #908 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Reds RH Johnny Cueto (11-6, 2.08 ERA, WHIP: 0.919) - Cueto has allowed three or fewer runs in nine straight starts while going 6-1, including seven shutout innings Saturday in a 1-0 victory over Washington. The Dominican Republic native is among the league leaders in WHIP (0.93) and ERA and has struck out 157 in 155 2/3 innings. Garrett Jones is 11-for-39 with a homer versus Cueto, who is 2-1 with a 5.27 ERA in five career starts against Miami.

--KEY STAT: CUETO is 12-5 against the run line (+10.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 3.6, OPPONENT 2.5.

--CUETO is 14-4 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CUETO 3.9, OPPONENT 2.9.

•Marlins RH Tom Koehler (7-7, 3.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.247) - Koehler battled through five innings, giving up three runs and nine hits, to beat Houston in his last outing. The 28-year-old Bronx, N.Y. native yielded three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and has given up 108 hits in 124 1/3 innings overall. Koehler, who has not given up an unearned run this season, pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings as a reliever against Cincinnati in 2013.

#909 PITTSBURGH @ #910 ARIZONA - 9:40 PM
•Pirates LH Jeff Locke (2-2, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.121) - Locke will look to bounce back from his worst outing since his recall from Triple-A Indianapolis in early June, when he was shelled for six runs on 10 hits in Colorado on Saturday. That halted a string of eight consecutive quality starts for Locke, who allowed a total of 15 earned runs in that span. Locke is 0-1 with a 6.92 in three appearances (two starts) versus Arizona and has been tormented by Paul Goldschmidt (4-for-6).

--KEY STAT: LOCKE is 0-7 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LOCKE 2.6, OPPONENT 6.3.

•Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (8-5, 4.03 ERA, WHIP: 1.307) - Collmenter is also coming off a disastrous performance that saw him last only 2 2/3 innings and give up six runs on 11 hits in a loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. That outing followed back-to-back starts in which Collmenter allowed one run over seven innings. Collmenter has pitched decidedly better at home, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 14 appearances (10 starts).

--KEY STAT: COLLMENTER is 12-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLLMENTER 4.6, OPPONENT 3.5.

#911 ATLANTA @ #912 LA DODGERS - 10:10 PM
•Braves RH Julio Teheran (10-6, 2.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.045) - Teheran won his second straight decision and fourth in the last five after allowing three runs in six innings en route to a 5-3 victory over San Diego on Saturday. The 23-year-old Colombian didn't yield a homer after permitting four in his previous three outings. Teheran was blitzed in his previous meeting with the Dodgers, taking the loss in the National League Division Series after allowing six runs on eight hits in 2 2/3 innings.

•Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (12-2, 1.76 ERA, WHIP: 0.801) - Kershaw continued his scorching run after scattering three hits Saturday en route to his fourth complete game - and second shutout - of the season. The two-time Cy Young Award recipient has won nine in a row and struck out at least seven in 12 consecutive outings. For all of his success, Kershaw has yet to record a decision versus Atlanta, although he has limited the Braves to a .189 batting average in four career starts.

--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line against ational League East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 1.7.

--KERSHAW is 9-23 against the run line (-14.7 Units) in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 3.0, OPPONENT 2.7.

--KERSHAW is 12-3 against the run line (+10.5 Units) against National League East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 1.7.

--KERSHAW is 15-3 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in home games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 3.1, OPPONENT 1.6.

--KERSHAW is 13-4 UNDER (+8.4 Units) after giving up no earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 3.3, OPPONENT 2.1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced sports investments

perry’s soccer corner

uefa – europa league

12:00pm hapoel ironi kiryat shmona @ dynamo moscow – under 2.5 +122

1:00pm skn st polten @ psv eindhoven – under 3.5 -115

3:00pm fc zimbru chisinau @ sv scholz grodig – over 2.5 -110

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Klprodigypicks

Free Play Of Day

KANSAS CITY ROYALS ML (-187)


Other Picks

CINCINNATI REDS f5 ML (-116)

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (-156)

HOUSTON ASTROS ML (+114)

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Sam Martin

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40PM

5* Play on Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Under.

We scored an "Under" winner last night here in our Free Pick section as the Indians shutout the Mariners 2-0. We'll come back with our second "Under" play in a row tonight - this time out in the desert as Pittsburgh takes on Arizona.

Both starting pitchers Locke and Collmenter are in "play-on" spots tonight, looking to bounce back from an unusually poor outing in their previous game. Locke held Arizona to just two runs over 8 IP in his only meeting against them this season, while Collmenter shutout Pittsburgh in his lone career meeting (five innings pitched) and has an ERA south of 3.00 here at home. 5* Play on Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers

#914 UN9 -115 DET/CWS 1u TWelke 4ov/11un L15gms 73.3% (L10gm 80.0%)

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Maddux Sports

MLB

10* Cleveland Indians

10* St. Louis Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Winnipeg @ HAMILTON

Winnipeg +4½ -110 over HAMILTON

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Line opened with the Tiger-Cats as a -3½-point favorite and has been bet up to -4½. It would appear to us that the market has overreacted to Hamilton’s win last week but more specifically to Dan LeFevour’s sparkling CFL starting debut that saw him put up in excess of 350 yards passing and more than 100 yards rushing. Let us point out, however, that it came against Ottawa, a team coming off a huge emotional victory the week prior in their first ever home game. It was also the Ti-Cats first home game of the year so everything was right in place for a strong showing from the Tabbies. What might be lost in last week’s Hamilton victory is that the Redblacks could have won and went toe-to-toe with the Ti-Cats until a very late TD in the fourth that put Hamilton up by 10 for good. Again, that was Ottawa. Let us also remind you that before the season began Dan Lefevour was the third string QB and when Zach Collaros went down in Week 3, Coach Kent Austin chose Jeremiah Masoli to start Week 4. There are other factors here that work against Hamilton as well. Last week was its first win and it was also its first “real” home game in nearly two years. An emotional victory it was and it was also the third consecutive week that Hamilton played their hearts out. The two previous weeks they played in Edmonton and Calgary respectively and they could have won both those games. After three weeks of being emotionally jacked up, the Tiger-Cats are in a letdown spot and will play this one on just five days rest with a weak offensive line.

Winnipeg is also in a letdown spot after they went into B.C. last week as a big underdog and won 23-6. However, the fact that they’re not getting the respect they deserve provides big motivation and that applies here. The top three teams in the West, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are a combined 12-1 while no team in the East has more than one victory. Hamilton’s 74 points scored is second last in the CFL, ahead of only the Alouettes 70 points scored. Furthermore, Winnipeg leads the CFL in points scored with 141 and they are 2-0 on the road. Winnipeg’s aggressive defense will now face a Hamilton’s offensive line that has three out of four regulars out. Throw in the points, throw in that Winnipeg has had an extra day of preparation and throw in the motivation of being disrespected (every player knows the point-spread) and there you have it. The West versus East getting +4½ points is too many in this decent situation.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Seattle @ CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND/Seattle over 8½ -102

(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Zach McAllister was spotted with a 5-0 lead after two innings in his last start in Kansas City but coughed it all up in another disappointing performance. After starting the season 3-0, he's 0-6 in his last nine starts. Overall he has a 5.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. McAllister is having trouble finding the plate and he has the worst oppBA (.422) in the majors when pitching with runners on. When this stiff pitches, there are always runners on. McAllister’s fast start last season was derailed by a mid-season finger injury but his xERA wasn't buying that first half ERA anyway. His control and command are going the wrong way. His groundball rate of 40% is stagnant at best. His dominant start/disaster start split says he’s a crap-shoot whenever he takes the ball. Age, some level of rebound is possible, but durability issues add to a less-than-optimistic outlook.

Chris Young has been a hot pickup in fantasy leagues off the waiver wire recently, as seven of his last eight starts have been of the pure quality variety, where he has allowed three earned runs or less in all eight. Safeco Field can make pitchers look awfully good but his road form leaves something to be desired and so do his skills. In 55 road innings, Young has been taken yard 12 times. That’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Young’s 24%/58% groundball/fly-ball split is the biggest discrepancy in the majors among pitchers with 10 or more starts. Over his last five starts, his groundball/fly-ball split is 20%/62%. Young’s 3.04 ERA is about the most mind-boggling ERA over the past 20 years but we’re here to tell you that it’s been all luck driven. He has been the beneficiary of an 84% strand rate and remarkably low 22% hit rate. Once those normalize, Young’s ERA is in for a big correction. That correction likely starts here against an Indians squad that owns the fourth best OPS in MLB versus right handed pitching at .751. This isn’t Safeco Field. The over/under for HR’s in this game should be 8½.


St. Louis @ SAN DIEGO

St. Louis +100 over SAN DIEGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

3:40 PM EST. Shelby Miller went 15-9 last season with an ERA of 3.06 with an oppBA of .234. This year has been a different story. Miller has walked 55 batters while striking out just 76 in 115.2 innings. He has an awful 1.44 WHIP, an ERA of 4.22 and an xERA of 4.86. The Cardinals had lost five straight with Miller starting from June 19 to July 10 and he was subsequently demoted to the bullpen. He pitched one inning of relief from July 10 to July 20 and has only pitched 6.2 innings since July 10. Last week he started against the Cubbies and with some rest behind him he didn’t walk a batter and gave up just three hits in 5.2 innings. If Miller is throwing strikes and he’s not fatigued, he’s hugely effective. He’s only allowed 111 hits in 115.2 frames and will now face a Padres team that ranks 30th in just about every key offensive category. Still, this one is more about fading Odrisamer Despaigne than it is about backing Shelby Miller.

Despaigne was finally hit with his first poor outing in his sixth start although he escaped by allowing just two earned runs despite giving up six hits and five walks in 3.2 innings. Consider his 1.66 ERA to be a complete mirage, as his skill set is sub-par. Despaigne’s plus minor league strikeout rate hasn't translated over to the majors. A poor swing and miss rate of 6% doesn't offer much hope for improvement, either. Despaigne has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%/strand%, hr/f) to get to his sub-2.00 ERA. xERA says he's actually been a below average pitcher under the surface. He's had trouble getting ahead in the count as shown by his first-pitch strike rate. The walk rate has predictably suffered, so his command is well into the danger zone. Despaigne has relied on a variety of arm slots with deception in his delivery to get to the major leagues. His surface stats, however, have been just as deceptive given the general lack of skill support so far. The 27-year-old Cuban defector was given an unimpressive prospect rating upon his call-up on June 25, which doesn't bode well for his ability to remain relevant. Selling Despaigne's hot start is the wise play here, as both his long-term potential and short-term skills don't measure up to his current level of performance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

MLB Heavy Hitter GOM

Washington Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steven Nover

STEPHEN'S EARLY DISCOUNT CASHER

St. Louis Cardinals +104

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Reds are 13-0 since June 15, 2004 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base in the last game of a series yesterday for a net profit of $1392.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 10-0 since April 17, 2012 as a home 140+ favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $1000.

CHOICE TREND:

The Angels are 10-0 since May 09, 2014 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 15-3 since April 12, 2012 as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Throw back Thursday card has a Huge 100% 5* Blowout system, an Undefeated Dog system and the 90% MLB Total of the week from a system that Averages 12 runs per game- Free Plays are 19-7 of late . Free MLB System Play below.

On Thursday the free MLB System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 907 at 7:10 eastern. Miami lost on Wednesday snapping their 6 game win streak and they have lost 4 straight in the series here to the Reds. Road favorites like the Reds are 10-1 off a home loss where they scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits in a game where the total was 8 or less and the opponent was at home in their last game. The Reds have J. Cueto on the mound and he has a stellar 2.47 road era. Look for the Reds to do enough to get the win here against T. Koehler and the Marlins who may bounce a littler now that their win streak is over. Take the Reds. On Thursday the lead play is the 5* MLB Blowout system which is perfect since 2004, their is also an undefeated dog system and the MLB Total of the Week from a Killer 90% Totals system that Averages 12 runs per game. Jump on now and cash out with some of the most devastating material and data that won't be seen any where else. For the free play take the Reds. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

MLB

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs 2:20PM

Chicago Cubs w/Arrieta vs Hernandez

Edges - Cubs: Arrieta 3-0 team starts versus southpaws last two seasons, and 4-2 with 1.96 ERA home team starts this season. Rockies: Hernandez 8.14 ERA in 14 career MLB career team starts,including 9.83 away. With that look for the Cubs to make it four straight wins over left-handers here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Chicago Cubs. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Total

#913/914: White Sox/Tigers: Under 9.0 (-115) 3*
Listed Pitchers: Danks/Smyly

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

Early MLB Steam

Chicago Cubs (1st 5 Innings)

Colorado Rockies RL+1.5 (Full Game)