8-2-14

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MTI Sports

San Diego Padres

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JOSH DANIELS

1* Baltimore O's
1* Tampa Bay Rays

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Dave Aquino

Today's Selections

MLB

Oakland Athletics

Milwaukee Brewers

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Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Pirates are 0-12 since August 20, 2005 on the road when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a win for a net profit of $1305 when playing against.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Rick Porcello starts the Tigers are 14-0 since June 08, 2013 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game if he allowed no more than 10 hits last start for a net profit of $1400.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

Vance Worley has produced a team record of 8-1 (+$700) following a starter where he allowed four or fewer hits.

CHOICE TREND

The Rangers are 0-12 since May 11, 2014 as a dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Miguel Gonzalez starts the Orioles are 13-2 since August 10, 2012 at home after a quality start for a net profit of $1091.

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GUARANTEED SPORTS PICK

Cincinnati vs Miami - UNDER 7

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Saturday card has 2 Big 5* Plays one from a 20-2 system the other a 100% Dog system, their is also a 32-7 Totals angle with a 90% system. Friday card cashes 2 of 3. Free Plays on a 20-8 run. Free MLB Totals System Below.


On Saturday the Free MLB Totals System Play is to play over the total in the Milwaukee at St. Louis game. Rotation numbers 907/908 at 7:15 eastern. Last night we cashed a big 5* With these 2 playing over the total easily with 11 runs. Tonight their is a different system that pertains to a high scoring totals system that has won 28 of 34 times since 2011. We are playing the over for Home favorites like the Cardinals with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored loss at-140 or higher and lost by 2+ runs and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more hits, vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs with 10 or more hits and no errors. The Brewers have flown over 15 of 22 times as a road dog from +100 to +125. In the series here 7 of the last 10 have posted over the total. Milwaukee has K. Lohse on the mound and he has pitched over in 6 of his last 8 road Starts in August. J. Masterson makes his first start for the Cards since getting traded. He has a dismal 10.03 era in his last 3 starts and has pitched over in 3 of his last 4 home August starts. Look for this one to go over tonight. On Saturday another Big Power system Card is on the menu with 2 big 5* plays, one is a 20-2 Dominator system, the other a Perfect system dog. There is also a solid totals system with a 32-7 Angle. Jump on Now and put the Power of our Cutting edge data and Material on your side. Last night we nailed 2 of 3. For the free Play take Milwaukee and St. Louis to fly over the total. GC

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GAMBLING GOD

League: MLB
Team A: Brewers
Team B: Cardinals
Pick: Over 7.5
Risk:$110 to win $100
Time: 4:00 PM PT

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BANKROLL SPORTS

2* Tampa Bay Rays -110 (MLB)

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Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Under 9 Texas Rangers/Cleveland Indians

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SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Saskatchewan @ OTTAWA

OTTAWA +6 -105 /+210 over Saskatchewan

(Risking 2.05 units - To Win: 1.95)

We’re going to break this up and play 1 unit on the money line and 1 unit on the point-spread.

Saskatchewan is 2-2 after four games but they have only played one road game and that came in Toronto in Week 2 in which the Argonauts rolled the Roughriders 48-15. In the rematch back in Regina last week, Saskatchewan paid the Argos back with a 37-9 pasting but in case you didn’t know, Toronto actually outgained the Riders by 146 yards in the air and 65 yards overall. In fact, the Green Riders have only outgained one of their four opponents and that came in Week 1 against a Tiger-Cats team that looked as lethargic as could possibly be. The Riders rank near the bottom in several key offensive and defensive stats. Their defense ranks eighth in yards allowed per game and their offense is last in the West and sixth overall and that’s after playing Toronto twice and Hamilton once. In the Riders only game versus the West they were buried by the Lions by a flattering score to them of 26-13. The local media in Ottawa is playing this up as a “measuring stick” game because the Riders are the defending champs but don’t buy into that, as Saskatchewan is a fraction of the team they were a year ago. They tore apart both their offensive and defensive lines and have just four returners overall on defense. This is a team that has looked no better than Ottawa and looked brutal in their only road game.

Ottawa is getting better each week. Unlike the other teams in the East, the Redblacks have yet to be blown out and have led at the half in three of their four games so far. Last week they trailed Hamilton by just three at the break and hung in there the entire game. The Redblacks have shown an ability to move the chains. They have been inside the red zone plenty of times but have been unable to punch it on several occasions otherwise they may have three wins instead of one. That’s a slight tweak that we’re sure they’ve been working on. Henry Burris has four TD passes and just one pick while Darian Durant has thrown five picks. After five weeks, Durant’s 777 yards passing ranks seventh out of eight regular starters and he’s only slightly ahead of Montreal’s Troy Smith, who has 758 yards passing. There’s nothing that we’ve seen from the Riders that suggest they deserve to be a 6-point road favorite or that they’re not capable of losing outright. All the value here is on the pooch and we're on it.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Seattle @ BALTIMORE

Seattle +102 over BALTIMORE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Some things just defy logic and a case in point is Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez. Here’s a guy with a 3.77 ERA after 18 starts but his WHIP of 1.42 does not come close to supporting that ERA. And it’s not like Gonzalez can get out of jams on his own. He has just 77 K’s in 103 innings while issuing 38 walks. The reason he’s been able to keep his ERA in check is due to a very lucky 80% strand rate. Over his last five starts covering 30 innings, Gonzalez has a strand rate of 93%. No other pitcher in the majors has a 93% strand rate or higher over a five-game stretch. You would assume that he’s been helped by double plays but that’s not true either, as Gonzalez is a fly-ball pitcher with a GB/FB split of 38%/42%. His swing and miss rate is 7% overall and 4% over his past six starts. Gonzalez’s xERA of 4.92 reflects pedestrian skills at best. He doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. The under the hood stats scream out that Miguel Gonzalez is one of the worst starters in the league so take this projection seriously.

Not many know about James Paxton but we’re here to tell you that this guy has some of the nastiest stuff you’ll ever see. Paxton come off the DL after getting injured in just his second start of the year way back in April. In his two starts he surrendered just six hits in 12 innings while striking out 13 batters. Last year, Paxton went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings for Seattle after his September call-up. In just 36 major-league innings over his brief career, Paxton has allowed just 24 hits for an oppBA of .164. He’s also 5-0 as a starter in six starts with an ERA of 1.75 and an elite groundball rate of 56%. Paxton features a mid-90s heater, a changeup he'll use anytime and a curve as his out pitch. As a 25-year-old ground-baller with three plus pitches, Paxton offers up so much more value than his mound opponent and he’ll face an Orioles team that is struggling miserably at the plate.


Toronto @ HOUSTON

Toronto -1½ +127 over HOUSTON

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

R.A. Dickey is regaining the form that saw his stock soar back in 2012. Since June 14th, a string of eight starts, he's been able to induce whiffs at a healthy rate with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. However, Dickey had more success in the past inducing weak contact on the ground with his knuckleball-led arsenal rather than aiming for Ks. His groundball rate is down from his glory days but he may have found it again, as his groundball rate has been creeping up since June 14. Dickey certainly hasn't been bad, far from it actually, as he's racked up pure quality starts in every one of his starts since June 14. And the knuckleball velocity that he's relied on for prior success hasn't declined. That said, this one is all about fading Astros lefthander, Brett Oberholtzer.

Oberholtzer is basically a two-pitch pitcher. When we look at successful two-pitch pitchers (see Derek Lowe), they almost always feature a nasty slider but that’s not the case with this stiff. Oberholtzer’s two pitches are of course a fastball (that tops off at 89 MPH) and a changeup. Is it any wonder that he’s spent the majority of the past six years in the minors? In 84 innings, Oberholtzer has just 53 K’s. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is an ugly one at 35%/21%/44%. As a minor-leaguer, Oberholtzer was considered a fringe prospect and he’s done nothing at this level to alter that. Over his last four starts covering 26 innings he has a BB/K split of 6/9. His ERA at Minute Maid is 4.91 with an xERA of 5.47. A soft-tosser with a fly-ball bias profile, Oberholtzer’s chances of a blowup is high against HR hitting teams and the Blue Jays certainly fit that bill.

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Kyle's Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers - TIGERS -1.5 (-106)

Listed Pitchers: Matzek vs. Porcello

(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)

Sonny Gray took care of business yesterday, but the offense was lackluster to say the least. The A's couldn't score a run off Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals went on for the 1-0 win. Tonight we head out to Detroit for an inter-league clash between the Rockies and Tigers.

There was a point this season where the Rockies were able to rely on the offense to stay a little competitive, but without Troy Tulowitzki the life of their offense was taken away. Not to mention the injury to Carlos Gonzalez. Similar to the Reds, the Rockies are without the meat of the offense. It isn't the best formula to have against the Tigers, which wasn't successful for them last night in a 4-2 losing effort against Justin Verlander. A good formula for success in this game will be the Tigers vs. a left-hander. They are hitting .280 against them! Tyler Matzek isn't the worst option for the Rockies in their rotation, but he should be handled by the Tigers' offense. He comes in with a 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, not good, but there is still worse out of the Colorado starters. He has had major trouble keeping runners off base on the road, a 1.50 WHIP. Remember the Tigers hit .280 against left-handers, so they are going to have many chances to score some runs in this game. Opposite Matzek will be the surprise of the season for the Tigers, Rick Porcello. There was a big campaign to get Porcello into the All-Star game, which he definitely deserved given his work in the first half of the season. He went three games without allowing a single run. He got hit hard the following start, but three starts later Porcello is right back on track. His past three starts yielded a 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .247 OBP. The Rockies trip to Detroit should get dicier tonight, as the Tigers should be able to take care of them by more than a run once again.

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Kevin's Pick(s):

3-1 late inning loss last night, as the Jays bullpen gave up two runs in the bottom of the 8th. One play here tonight on a busy day of baseball that includes a lot of starting pitchers pitching for their new teams after the trade deadline.

2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles - UNDER 8.5 RUNS -116

Listed Pitchers: Paxton vs Gonzalez

(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.72 units)

The first game of this series last night was a 2-1 Baltimore win. These two teams have now played 5 games this season and we've seen totals of 4, 3, 7, 5, and 3 with the UNDER going 5-0. Tonight's starting pitcher for Seattle is James Paxton who is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA, .146 OBA and 0.67 WHIP over two starts. He has faced the Angels twice in back to back starts. He looked great in his first start allowing just 2 hits over 7 innings, but the Angels figured him out a bit in his second appearance in less than a week against them. Last year over 4 starts with the Mariners he was 3-0 witha 1.50 ERA, .172 OBA and 0.92 WHIP. Baltimore will counter with Miguel Gonzalez who is 5-5 with a 3.77 ERA, .271 OBA and 1.42 WHIP. His home numbers are slightly better with a 2-2 record and 3.30 ERA. In 4 July starts Gonzalez was 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA, .218 OBA and 1.08 WHIP - with all four being quality starts. The UNDER is 37-13-1 in the Mariners last 51 overall, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 10-1 in the Orioles last 11 games overall, 38-14-2 in their last 54 games as a favorite, 35-16-2 in their last 53 home games, and 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts overall. The UNDER is also 6-0 in these two teams last 6 meetings (5-0 this season). Take the UNDER with two solid starting pitchers going at it tonight.

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AFL

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 100 off a road win, with a winning record on the season
124-68 since 1997. ( 64.6% | 49.2 units )
16-5 this year. ( 76.2% | 10.5 units )

ARENA | PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) revenging a close loss of 10 points or less to opponent, off a road blowout loss by 17 points or more
19-9 since 1997. ( 67.9% | 20.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.0 units )

ARENA | PORTLAND at ARIZONA
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games
34-11 over the last 10 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )

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River City Sharps

Yes, we know that the Reds offense has been pretty anemic since the All Star break, which is expected when you lose Votto and Phillips for an extended period. But the trip to Florida seems to have woken up the Cincinnati Reds and their offense. Tonight, they give the ball to Homer Bailey, who will be opposed by the Marlins Nathan Eovaldi. Bailey is winless over his last four starts and Eovaldi is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA over his last 11 starts. Saturday games for these teams have spelled OVER recently as the OVER is 9-4 in the Reds last 13 Saturday affairs and 4-1 in Eovaldi's last five Saturday starts. The OVER i also 17-7-1 in these teams last 25 meetings with one another and there are some nice umpire trends pointing towards some runs being scored. We're going OVER the posted total here tonight. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - OVER 7.0 -120 Cincinnati Reds/Miami Marlins