If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Zach Greinke will toe the rubber for the home side tonight and he has been dominant in 9 home starts in 2014, going 6-1 with a stingy 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Greinke has allowed just 1 ER in his last 15 IP, earning wins against the Giants and Braves in his last 2 outings.
Garrett Richards gets the nod for the Angels tonight and has had a great season up to now, he is 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Angels however are just 1-5 in Richards’ last 6 outings as a road underdog.
The Dodgers are 32-16 in games following a loss this season and I believe they are showing good value tonight with Greinke on the mound.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ M. Scherzer) @ -123 / 1.81 on 5 Dimes
I’m taking the Tigers in this contest as I have no problem in laying a small juice w/ Scherzer on the mound.
We have a rested DET bullpen (important factor w/ this DET team) as their SP’s went deep during the weekend vs. COL: Verlander 8IP’s, Porcello 8IP’s and yesterday Anibal Sanchez went 7 IP’s! On the other end, the Yankees are coming from a tiring “ESPN game” vs. rivals Red Sox in a game that last almost 4 hours. This is a potential letdown spot IMO.
One of our biggest plays of the season was w/ Scherzer in their last start (Run Line Play). My notes about him:
“They will throw Max Scherzer to the mound and I expect Scherzer to take care of the business. His 3.31 FIP & 3.18 xFIP numbers in this month are good but not great, but please note the level of his opponents in the month of July (Ranked teams vs. RHP’s in this season):
LAA #8
CLE #4
LAD #5
TB #12
Yes, all top teams! Only the Rays aren’t a top 10 offensive team vs. RHP’s using season numbers, but I have no doubts that they are a top team right now – ranked #4 in the L30 days! Still, Scherzer managed to give his team a chance to win those games. He already has made 3 starts vs. CWS this season w/ great numbers of 2, 0 & 0 ER’s allowed!”
Well, he didn’t disappoint us: 7.0IP, 5H, 1ER, 6/1 K/BB ratio w/ nice 1.86 FIP & 2.75 xFIP! I expect him to be decent (once again) today.
On the other end, I’ve also made a play in NYY’s B. McCarthy in his last but we had to sweat to win that play @TEX as he didn’t fare well w/ 6.00 ERA + 4.81 FIP + 4.32 xFIP! Even though he has been solid lately, note that he has faced TEX 2x & CIN in his last 3 starts, we just can’t compare them vs. DET’s power offense! McCarthy’s 17.3% HR/FB ratio is a potential problem tonight vs. DET power bats @NYY stadium, and the correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Detroit tonight!
Comment