8-5-14

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MLB betting cheat sheet: Price makes Detroit debut

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early-week major league games:

No Offense ...

The Atlanta Braves continued their dry spell Sunday, falling 4-3 in San Diego for their sixth consecutive loss. The Braves' offense has been dreadful on their six-game West Coast jaunt, scoring a total of 13 runs; despite the outage, Atlanta is 3-3 O/U on the trek thanks to low totals and decent pitching.

Simon Struggling

Cincinnati Reds hurler Alfredo Simon will look to get back on track Monday as he visits the Cleveland Indians (-194, 7) in an interleague showdown. Simon leads the majors in pitching value but is 0-3 since the All-Star break, with the Reds scoring just six runs in those three starts.

Price Makes Detroit Debut

David Price makes his first start in a Detroit uniform Tuesday as the Tigers face the host New York Yankees. Price, who was shipped to the Tigers in a blockbuster trade at the non-waiver deadline, went 7-2 SU and 2-7 O/U in his final nine starts with Tampa Bay - including a win over the Yankees.

Pitching Notes

* Oakland right-hander Jeff Samardzija has settled into a pair of trends as he leads the Athletics into Monday's showdown with the visiting Tampa Bay Rays (+126, 7). Samardzija is 3-0 in his last three starts - all as a major favorite - while going 3-0 O/U after producing just four Overs in his first 14 starts.

* Bet against Clayton Kershaw at your own risk. The Dodgers lefty enters Tuesday's matchup with the visiting Angels on an 11-game SU win streak, going 10-0 with a no-decision in that span while allowing more than one run just twice over that stretch.

Hitting Notes

* Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nelson Cruz enters Monday's game against host Washington (-137, 7) mired in an 8-for-73 slump that has dropped his average to .262 for the season. Fortunately for Cruz, Baltimore is 12-8 SU and 5-15 O/U in that stretch.

* New York Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner had a week to remember, hitting .478 with five home runs and seven RBIs. Gardner now has 15 home runs on the season, easily surpassing his previous career best of eight; the Yankees are 8-6 SU and 5-8-1 O/U when Gardner goes deep.

Totals Streak

Chicago White Sox (6-0 O/U): White Sox games have been rather entertaining of late, with the winning team scoring at least seven runs in each of them. That stretch includes four games in which teams combined to score 14 or more runs, highlighted by Sunday's 16-3 loss to Minnesota.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to consider taking the host Dodgers to defeat the rival Angels by more than two runs, a wager that stands at +325. Dodgers starter Zack Greinke is 6-1 with a 2.52 ERA in nine home starts, while Angels counterpart Garrett Richards has allowed four runs in each of his last two outings.

Injury Notes

* The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the season with a broken hand. Goldschmidt, the defending National League MVP runner-up, finishes the year hitting .300 with 19 home runs and 69 RBIs in 406 at-bats.

* Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is expected to avoid the disabled list as he continues nursing a sore right ankle. Gonzalez has missed 44 games this season with a variety of ailments; the Rockies are 16-28 SU, 21-17-6 O/U and -993 units in those contests.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Yankee Stadium should expect winds out to left field at 8 mph for Monday's game against visiting Detroit (-119, 7.5). Teams combined to average a whopping 3.6 home runs in five games under similar conditions a season ago - well above the stadium average of 2.06.

* Wind at Citizens Bank Park will blow out to straightaway center field at 5 mph Tuesday when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros. The hosts went 7-13 SU and 12-7-1 O/U in 20 games under similar conditions in 2013, including marks of 5-6 SU and 5-5-1 O/U at less than 10 mph.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 11:20 a.m. ET Monday.

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Marlins ice cold at PNC Park
Stephen Campbell

PNC Park has not been friendly territory for the Miami Marlins recently. In their last six games against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Steel City, the Fish are 0-6 through Monday. The Bucs host Miami once again Tuesday.

The Pirates are presently -155 favorites with an O/U of 7.5, per BetOnline.

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Yanks, Tigers love high totals
Stephen Campbell

When the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers have gotten together recently there hasn't been any shortage of runs. In the last seven meetings between the two clubs, the O/U is 5-1-1 through Monday.

They'll renew acquaintances in the Bronx Tuesday evening. BetOnline currently lists the Tigers as -134 faves with a total of 7.5.

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Mercury have gone cold for bettors in last two games
Andrew Avery

The Phoenix Mercury are still the top bet against the spread in the WNBA, but they've gone a little cold at the betting window of late.

Following a sensational 11-game winning streak ATS, Mercury backers have been left frustrated, tearing up tickets in the past two games. They failed to covers as 1-point faves at Minnesota and as 11-point faves versus Indiana.

Still, the Mercury are 19-7-1 ATS and bettors will look for another win Tuesday. Books have the Mercury as 8-point home faves with the Atlanta Dream in town Tuesday evening.

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Cappers Access

Rockies -150
Braves +150

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Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Oakland

The Rays look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 9-0 record in their last 9 in Game 2 of a series. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 5 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Miami at Pittsburgh (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Hand) 16.201; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.721 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+125); Under

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.210; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.298 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+145); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.339; Milwaukee (Nelson) 15.992 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Over

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.332; Colorado (Anderson) 15.899 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2 1/2; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over

Game 959-960: Detroit at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Price) 18.338; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.203 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 961-962: Baltimore at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.967; Toronto (Buehrle) 17.298 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over

Game 963-964: Texas at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.498; White Sox (Danks) 14.671 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Smyly) 16.804; Oakland (Hammel) 14.922 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under

Game 967-968: Houston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 16.422; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.011 Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Over

Game 969-970: Cincinnati at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 17.398; Cleveland (Tomlin) 15.766 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 971-972: San Diego at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hahn) 16.499; Minnesota (Hughes) 14.562 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Under

Game 973-974: Boston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (De La Rosa) 15.432; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.645 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+135); Over

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.498; Arizona (Miley) 14.876 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 15.409; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 17.987 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-230); Under

Game 979-980: Atlanta at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.403; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.564 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 5 Vegas Line: Seattle (-170); 6 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+150); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Phoenix

The Dream head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Minnesota at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.170; Indiana 113.495 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5; 154 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+5); Under

Game 603-604: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.539; Washington 110.406 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 153 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 146 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (+4); Over

Game 605-606: Chicago at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.546; Connecticut 109.102 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 159 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 154 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Over

Game 607-608: Atlanta at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.617; Phoenix 124.830 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 15; 170 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 165 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Over

Game 609-610: Tulsa at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 107.054; Los Angeles 114.972 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 164 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6 1/2; 160 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6 1/2); Over

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ATLANTA at SEATTLE
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SEATTLE) with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
376-154 since 1997. ( 70.9% | 110.6 units )
34-20 this year. ( 63.0% | 0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at ARIZONA
KANSAS CITY is 37-20 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in Road games with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play TUES: White Sox w/ Danks -140

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Hondo

Hondo, a loser Sunday with the Blue Jays, carried a deficit of 1,325 pignatanos into Monday night’s investment on the Nationals to beat the Birds.

Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch is walkin’ the big ’dogs — 10 units on the Metamucils to pan Nat Gio and 10 on the Angels to give Kershaw and the Dodgers holy hell.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Indians on Monday and likes the Pirates on Tuesday.

The deficit is 351 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Reds -118

Giants/Brewers over 8

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StatFox Super Situations

ATLANTA at PHOENIX
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 poor defensive team - allowing 73+ points/game on the season, after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game 104-55 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.4% | 43.5 units ) 17-14 this year. ( 54.8% | 1.6 units )

CHICAGO at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) excellent free throw shooting team - making >=80% of their free throws, up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season 99-30 since 1997. ( 76.7% | 0.0 units ) 12-4 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )

NEW YORK at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points off a road loss, on Tuesday nights 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

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River City Sharps

3 Units Houston Astros -120

The Houston Astros are all of a sudden scoring runs in bunches...meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies are as offensively challenged as ever. The Astros won three of four games vs. the Blue Jays this weekend, outscoring Toronto 17-4 in the process. The Phillies haven't scored a single run in their last 21 innings! The Astros give the ball to their ace, Dallas Keuchel (10-7, 2.97) and he will be opposed by Kyle Kendrick (5-11, 4.92) for the Phillies. There are lots of signs here tonight pointing us towards the road favorite. For starters, Kendrick has been positively awful for the Phillies lately and was hammered by the Mets in his last start, an 11-2 loss. He has also struggled vs. the Astros historically, posting a 1-3 career mark with a 5.33 ERA against Houston. On the trends side, an interesting nugget here is that the Phillies have not returned well from an off day. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games following an off day and they are just 8-17 in Kendrick's last 25 starts as the dog. The Astros are playing pretty good baseball right now and we expect more of the same tonight in Philly.