8-10-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

This pitcher has been a nightmare for bettors
Stephen Campbell

It's been a tough stretch for Cleveland Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco, and if you've been backing the Tribe when he's on the bump, it's been hard on your wallet as well. In the 27-year-old's last 17 starts, the Indians are an ugly 3-14.

He'll get the ball when Cleveland faces off against the New York Yankees in the Bronx Sunday. The Yanks are currently -143 faves with an O/U of 8.5, per BetOnline.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

This team is lights out on the Under away from home
Stephen Campbell

The Detroit Tigers have been a boon for Under bettors away from Comerica Park lately, evidenced by eight of their last nine games on the road going under the total through Saturday. They'll pay a visit to the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre Sunday.

BetOnline currently has the Tigers as -135 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of eight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends show Reds feasting on lefties
Stephen Campbell

The Cincinnati Reds have been dominating left-handed pitching as of late, posting an 8-1 record in their last nine games versus southpaws through Saturday. That's good news for Reds backers as lefty Brad Hand will be on the hill for the Miami Marlins when they face off in Ohio Sunday.

BetOnline presently lists Cincy as -166 faves on the moneyline with a total of seven.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Padres-Pirates
Ross is 4-3, 1.50 in his last eight starts.
Morton is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.

San Diego won seven of its last ten games.
Pirates are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.

13 of last 16 Ross starts stayed under the total.


Mets-Phillies
Wheeler is 3-0, 1.79 in his last seven starts.
Kendrick is 1-3, 5.83 in his last five starts.

Mets are 7-4 in their last eleven road games.
Phillies won six of their last nine home games.

Over is 16-9 last 25 Philly games.

Marlins-Reds
Hand is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts.
Cueto is 5-0, 2.23 in his last six starts.

Marlins won nine of their last eleven road games.
Cincinnati lost last two games, scoring total of four runs.

Five of last seven Cueto starts stayed under the total.

Nationals-Braves
Gonzalez is 0-4, 5.74 in his last five starts.
Wood is 0-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.

Washington won three of its last four games.
Braves lost nine of last ten games, but won four of last five at home.

Over is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.

Dodgers-Brewers
Dodgers won last 12 Kershaw starts (10-0, 1.16).
Nelson is 1-1, 3.60 in his last three starts.

Dodgers won five of their last seven road games, but lost last two.
Milwaukee won ten of its last thirteen home games.

Under is 9-3-1 in Dodgers' last thirteen road games.

Rockies-Diamondbacks
Morales is 0-2, 5.16 in his last three starts.
Miley is 1-2, 8.82 in his last three starts.

Rockies lost 11 of their last 13 games.
Arizona won its last two games, scoring 19 runs.

Under is 10-3-1 in last fouirteen Colorado road games.

American League
Indians-Bronx
Carrasco is 0-3, 7.36 in four starts, last of which was April 25.
Kuroda is 1-1, 3.51 in his last five starts.

Cleveland lost nine of its last twelve away games. .
Bronx won 14 of its last 22 games.

Ten of last twelve Kuroda starts stayed under total.

Tigers-Blue Jays
Price is 6-1, 1.98 in his last eight starts.
Buehrle is 1-3, 6.16 in his last six starts.

Detroit is 10-13 since the All-Star break.
Toronto lost six of its last eight games.

Under is 12-3-1 in Detroit's last sixteen road games.

Rangers-Astros
Texas lost last nine Martinez starts (0-4, 8.87 in last five).
Keuchel is 1-1, 1.57 in his last three starts.

Texas lost 12 of its last 17 games.
Astros won six of last seven home games.

Under is 11-5-2 in last eighteen Texas games.

Red Sox-Angels
de la Rosa is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts.
Santiago is 0-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.

Boston lost 12 of its last 16 games.....pending result of Sat. game
Angels lost their last four games.

Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Boston road games.

Twins-A's
Hughes is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
Hammel is 1-4, 7.94 in five starts for A's, but won his last one.

Minnesota lost its last four games, outscored 23-13.
A's are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.


Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over total.

White Sox-Mariners
Danks is 1-1, 10.29 in his last four starts.
Ramirez is 0-1, 1.33 in his last five starts, last of which was July 22.

White Sox lost six of their last eight games.
Mariners won five of their last seven games.

Eight of last eleven White Sox games went over the total.

Interleague games
Rays-Cubs
Cobb is 3-0, 1.71 in his last four starts.
Wood is 0-3, 7.96 in his last seven starts.

Tampa Bay won 18 of its last 22 road games.
Cubs lost three of their last four games.

Last three Cobb starts stayed under the total.

Cardinals-Orioles
Lynn is 3-2, 2.33 in his last six starts.
Gausman is 2-0, 3.20 in his last three starts.

Cardinals lost last two nights in this series, allowing 22 runs.
Baltimore won ten of its last thirteen games.

Ten of last eleven Lynn starts stayed under the total.

Giants-Royals
Lincecum is 0-2, 7.29 in his last four starts.
Duffy is 2-0, 1.02 in his last three starts.

Giants lost four of their last five games.
Kansas City won nine of its last ten games.

Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Giant games.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Hand 4-5; Cueto 15-9
-- Wheeler 11-12; Kendrick 10-13
-- Gonzalez 10-8; Wood 5-10
-- Ross 12-12 (won last 4); Morton 10-13
-- Kershaw 15-3 (won last 12); Nelson 3-2
-- Morales 6-10; Miley 12-12

-- Carrasco 1-3; Kuroda 10-13
-- Price 14-9/1-0; Buehrle 15-8 (4-7 last 11)
-- Martinez 4-10 (lost last nine); Keuchel 11-10
-- Hughes 14-9; Hammel 10-7/1-4
-- Danks 11-12; Ramirez 4-8
-- de la Rosa 4-6; Santiago 5-10

-- Lynn 14-9; Gausman 8-3
-- Lincecum 14-9; Duffy 8-9
-- Cobb 8-9; Wood 12-11

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Hand 2-9; Cueto 2-24
-- Wheeler 7-23; Kendrick 4-23
-- Gonzalez 7-18; Wood 6-15
-- Ross 5-24; Morton 4-23
-- Kershaw 2-18; Nelson 1-5
-- Morales 2-16; Miley 5-24

-- Carrasco 2-4; Kuroda 9-23 (3 of last 3)
-- Price 8-24; Buehrle 5-23
-- Martinez 5-14; Keuchel 5-21
-- Hughes 4-23; Hammel 7-23
-- Danks 7-23; Ramirez 4-12
-- de la Rosa 3-10; Santiago 4-15

-- Lynn 5-23; Gausman 2-11
-- Lincecum 7-23; Duffy 4-17
-- Cobb 4-17; Wood 6-23

Umpires
-- SD-Pitt-- Five of last seven Conroy games stayed under.
-- NY-Phil-- Underdogs won seven of last nine Woodring games.
-- Mia-Cin-- Over is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Vanover games.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Four of last five Cuzzi games went over total.
-- LA-Mil-- Road team won four of last five Tumpane games.
-- Col-Az-- Last seven Reynolds games stayed under the total.

-- Cle-NY-- 13 of last 16 O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Det-Tor-- Four of last five Miller games went over total.
-- Tex-Hst-- Favorites won eight of last ten Demuth games.
-- Min-A's-- Favorites won eight of last ten LBarrett games.
-- Bos-LA-- Four of last five Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Chi-Sea-- Underdogs are 15-7 in last 22 Hudson games.

-- TB-Chi-- Six of last seven HGibson games stayed under.
-- StL-Balt-- Over is 10-1-1 in last twelve Morales games.
-- SF-KC-- Five of last six Barksdale games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo hit with Kluber and the Tribe on Saturday in El Bronx, but the Tigers’ pitiful pen deprived him of a sweep and caused the deficit to increase slightly to 1,265 sturdivants.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will go with Dallas in Houston — 10 units on Keuchel and the ’Stros to soar past the Rangers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Marlins/Reds under 7

Padres/Pirates under 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sun Cinci w/ Cueto -170

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at San Antonio

The Sparks head to San Antonio today where they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Stars. San Antonio is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks

SUNDAY, AUGUST 10 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Indiana at New York (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 108.832; New York 112.462 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 136 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 1; 141 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (-1); Under

Game 603-604: Washington at Connecticut (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.836; Connecticut 109.849 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5; 153 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 147 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-2 1/2); Over

Game 605-606: Los Angeles at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 108.603; San Antonio 110.196 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 154 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Atlanta at Chicago (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.542; Chicago 110.999 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 160 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 155 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Over

Game 609-610: Tulsa at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 109.947; Seattle 110.113 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 159 Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 3; 153 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PGA - Final Round Odds

The 2014 PGA Championship is setting up for a wild final day rom Valhalla Golf Club.

After three rounds, there are a dozen golfers within five shots of one another.

Tournament favorite Rory McIlroy has maintained his lead on Saturday and sits at 13-under after 54 holes. Longshot Bernd Weisberger is one shot behind McIlroy after posting a 6-under 65 on Saturday.

McIlroy entered the final major as a 5/1 betting choice. After 36 holes, the offshore outfit listed him as a -110 favorite (Bet $110 to win $100) to capture his second major in as many months. After Saturday's third round, McIlroy is now a 2/3 favorite (Bet $100 to win $67) to capture the PGA Championship.

Weisberger, an Austrian product, had betting odds as high as 250/1 (Bet $100 to win $25,000) before the PGA Championship began. Heading into Sunday, Weisberger is now a 14/1 choice.

Crowd favorite and five-time major champion Phil Mickelson is three shots (-10) off the lead and has been installed as a 9/1 betting choice. Prior to the tournament, "Lefty" had odds as high as 22/1.


Odds to win 2014 PGA Championship (Subject to change)

Rory McIlroy 2/3
Rickie Fowler 9/2
Phil Mickelson 9/1
Jason Day 21/2
Bernd Wiesberger 14/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Louis Oosthuizen 45/1
Ryan Palmer 50/1
Mikko Ilonen 65/1
Adam Scott 85/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Steve Stricker 110/1
Graham Delaet 120/1
Lee Westwood 140/1
Jamie Donaldson 150/1
Hunter Mahan 200/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cheez-It 355 at The Glen

Check out Dale Earnhardt Jr. who just won his third race of the season to tie him for the most in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series with Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski. His win at Pocono last Sunday gave him a season sweep there -- the only two wins of his career there -- which was also his first sweep since winning both Talladega races in 2002. It also gave him his series leading 10th top-5 finish on the season.

Yes, this is definitely a new Dale Jr., probably better and more consistent than we have ever seen out of him, including his days driving the No. 8 Budweiser car for DEI. After his win Sunday the LVH Super Book dropped his odds to win the Sprint Cup Chase from 8/1 (Bet $100 to win $800) down to 6/1 showing that they believe a little bit in the crazy numbers Junior is spitting out.

Remember, last season, even though he didn’t win a Chase race, he would have won the Championship under the new format that will be employed this season which is kind of a bracket where Homestead will be the championship game for the final four drivers.

Junior has never won on a road course before and this week he’ll try and tackle the course at Watkins Glen International where his best finish was third-place in 2003, one of two top-5 finishes he has on the course. Between the two road courses run on each season -- Sonoma being the other -- Junior‘s best chance at winning on one is at The Glen just because it‘s less technical and runs much faster. He’ll have 40/1 odds this week, but I’m not ready to jump on board the Junior train here yet. I’ll stick with the meat and potatoes.

You have to start with Marcos Ambrose, who has his only two career Cup wins at Watkins Glen and has an average finish of 6.8 in six starts. He’s finished third or better in five of those starts. He is the driver to beat and has run well in every car he's been given at the track. There's no reason to believe he won't be fast here and possible get the win which should be an automatic ticket into the Chase.

Then you have Brad Keselowski, who has finished second the past three seasons, twice behind Ambrose and then also last year to Kyle Busch. That type of consistency is attractive from a wagering standpoint because you're getting great odds on him and he's still hungry enough to do all he can to race his heart out for his first win on the track. He is the best value play of the bunch and he's be one of two early plays I made prior to Friday and Saturday's practices and qualifying.

Busch is at two-time winner at The Glen, Tony Stewart is a five-time winner and Jeff Gordon is a four-time winner. Stewart last won in 2009 and Gordon last won in 2001, which surprisingly is his last top-5 on the course. That’s right, Gordon, one of the best road course racers in NASCAR history has gone 12 straight races at Watkins Glen without a top-5 finish.

The odd part about Gordon is that at Sonoma, he's been amazing with nine straight top-10 finishes including runner-up in three of the past four events. What the hell happened to him at Watkins Glen? The one strong point with Gordon this week that may buck the trends is that he hasn't been as consistent every like he is this season since his last championship in 2001, which is also the last time he won at The Glen.

Carl Edwards won at Sonoma in June and should be considered a live candidate to win this week because of his 8.8 career average finish at The Glen. He was fourth last season and should get another top-5 on Sunday. Edwards will be my other early wager and can be found at nice 25/1 odds.

Be sure to check out qualifying and the practices before finalizing your plays. Qualifying might be more important here than at any other track. Of the 31 races run on the course, 21 of the winners have started from within the top-5. That's 67 percent and about as telling a stat as you'll find in NASCAR.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #9 Marcos Ambrose (5/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (25/1)
5) #15 Clint Bowyer (12/1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

***** Sunday, 8/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #19
•Jeter Passes Wagner On Career Hit List: Derek Jeter has passed Honus Wagner on the career hits list with 3,431, getting an infield single in the sixth inning Saturday against the Cleveland Indians. Jeter led off the inning with a soft grounder off Corey Kluber that shortstop Jose Ramirez charged but failed to pick up with his bare hand. Jeter tied Wagner on Friday night with a grounder that Ramirez made a nice play on but the throw went off first baseman Carlos Santana's glove as the Yankees captain crossed the base. Jeter has said this will be his final season so moving up to fifth will be very difficult. He needs 84 hits to catch Tris Speaker at 3,515.

•Hanley Ramirez To Undergo MRI On Side: Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez was forced to exit last night’s game against the Brewers due to tightness in his right side and Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that he will undergo an MRI today. Ramirez felt discomfort prior to the game, but was deemed OK to start. However, he only made it through one at-bat before leaving the game. You can see him grimacing during his at-bat here. “One swing, and it tied up on me,” said Ramirez. “I tried to play. [Manager Don Mattingly] wanted to be careful and took me out of the game to get treatment. What he did, I think, was smart. He doesn’t want me to get worse.” This is just the latest issue for Ramirez, who has already missed 24 starts this year due to calf and shoulder injuries. The impending free agent is batting .277/.367/.455 with 12 home runs, 58 RBI, and 12 stolen bases over 100 games this season.

•Wil Myers Set To Begin Minor League Rehab Assignment: Sidelined for over two months with a stress fracture in his right wrist, Rays outfielder Wil Myers is slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment today with Triple-A Durham. Myers injured his wrist in an outfield collision with teammate Desmond Jennings on May 30. The original diagnosis was a sprained wrist, but further examination revealed the fracture. He wore a cast for several weeks before recently ramping up baseball activities. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote on Thursday that Myers is expected to spend about two weeks in the minors, setting up his return later this month. After winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award last season, Myers was batting just .227/.313/.354 with five home runs and 25 RBI over 53 games this season prior to the injury.

•Yankees Place McCann On Concussion DL: The New York Yankees placed catcher Brian McCann on the seven-day concussion disabled list on Saturday. The club recalled catcher Austin Romine from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and unconditionally released infielder Brian Roberts. McCann left Friday night's game against the Cleveland Indians in the sixth inning. Francisco Cervelli pinch-hit for McCann, who was feeling the effects of a third-inning foul ball off his mask. McCann is batting .238 with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs this season. Roberts batted .237 with five homers and 21 RBIs in 317 at-bats in his first season with the Yankees. He spent the first 13 year of his major-league career with the Baltimore Orioles. He is a career .276 hitter with 97 home runs, 367 doubles, 285 stolen bases and 542 RBIs.

•Rockies' Brett Anderson Gets MRI, Team Fears He's Done For Season: Bad news continues to haunt the Rockies. Left-handed starter Brett Anderson, who left Tuesday's game against the Chicago Cubs in the fourth inning because of back spasms, is still in a great deal of discomfort. He already is on the 15-day disabled list and the fear now is that the back injury could be season-ending. Anderson underwent an MRI on Friday and the team is still awaiting results of the test. "He underwent the MRI to see if there is possible disc involvement," head trainer Keith Dugger said. "We will wait and see on the results, but he's still in a lot of discomfort."

If the MRI shows there is an injured disc in Anderson's back, he likely would be done for the season. According to Dugger, Anderson has previously never had back issues. Anderson already missed 83 games because of a broken finger suffered during an at-bat. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2011 as a member of the Oakland Athletics. At the end of this season, the Rockies must decide if they want to exercise their $12 million club option on Anderson's contract.

The Rockies did receive some good news Friday. Injured shortstop Troy Tulowitzki went through a series of agility drills and took batting practice and felt no pain. It's possible be could be sent out on a rehab assignment in a week to 10 days. However, manager Walt Weiss cautioned that it's too early to put a timetable on Tulo's return. Tulo update. All-star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, rehabbing a left hip flexor injury suffered July 19, went through a series of agility drills and took batting practice Friday. He felt no pain and was happy with his workout. The next major hurdle is running the bases, but Dugger has not set a timetable for that yet. It's possible Tulowitzki could be sent out on a rehab assignment in a week to 10 days. However, manager Walt Weiss cautioned that it's too early to predict Tulo's return.

•Rays Owner: No Regrets Over Trading Price: Tampa Bay Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said he doesn't regret trading former Cy Young Award winner David Price to the Detroit Tigers. Sternberg said before Saturday's game against the Chicago Cubs that the one regret he could think of as an owner was when Tampa Bay didn't add a hitter during the 2010 season. He doesn't have any second thoughts about the three-team trade July 31 that sent Price to Detroit. The Rays acquired left-hander Drew Smyly and minor-league shortstop Willy Adames from the Tigers along with infielder Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners. For Sternberg and the Rays, moves like that are of what the small-market franchise has to do to stay competitive, even if it means sending away stars.

Price, 28, can be a free agent after next season and could command a bigger contract than Tampa Bay would be able to give. "With David it wasn't three, four, five, eight guys and I think people got that and understood that we're still in it to win it," Sternberg said. "It really was the classic one-eye-on-the-present, one-eye-on-the-future kind of deal." That doesn't mean the deal was an easy one for Sternberg to make. Price was a part of Tampa Bay's 2008 American League champion, made four all-star teams and won the 2012 AL Cy Young Award.

The Rays made the playoffs four of the past six years and came into this season expecting to contend for a spot in the World Series. With Price leading the way, they jumped into playoff contention after a slow start, but that wasn't enough to keep him around. Price was making $14 million this year and with his contract set to expire in 2015, Tampa Bay decided to make the trade. "It doesn't make things easier today," Sternberg said. "But it's never easy for us." Sternberg added that Rays fans understood why the Price deal had to be made. "It wasn't easy for us, and a number of people (Friday) said `I understand why you had to do the deal you had to do, and we're behind you," Sternberg said.
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Betting Notes - Sunday

National League
•Marlins-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Hand is 2-1, 2.28 in his last four starts.
--Cueto is 5-0, 2.23 in his last six starts.

--Marlins won nine of their last eleven road games.
--Cincinnati lost last two games, scoring total of four runs.

--Five of last seven Cueto starts stayed under the total.

•Mets-Phillies - 1:35 PM
--Wheeler is 3-0, 1.79 in his last seven starts.
--Kendrick is 1-3, 5.83 in his last five starts.

--Mets are 7-4 in their last eleven road games.
--Phillies won six of their last nine home games.

--Over is 16-9 last 25 Philly games.

•Nationals-Braves - 8:05 PM
--Gonzalez is 0-4, 5.74 in his last five starts.
--Wood is 0-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.

--Washington won three of its last four games.
--Braves lost nine of last ten games, but won four of last five at home.

--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.

•Padres-Pirates - 1:35 PM
--Ross is 4-3, 1.50 in his last eight starts.
--Morton is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.

--San Diego won seven of its last ten games.
--Pirates are 17-5 in their last 22 home games.

--13 of last 16 Ross starts stayed under the total.

•Dodgers-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Dodgers won last 12 Kershaw starts (10-0, 1.16).
--Nelson is 1-1, 3.60 in his last three starts.

--Dodgers won five of their last seven road games, but lost last two.
--Milwaukee won ten of its last thirteen home games.

--Under is 9-3-1 in Dodgers' last thirteen road games.

•Rockies-Diamondbacks - 4:10 PM
--Morales is 0-2, 5.16 in his last three starts.
--Miley is 1-2, 8.82 in his last three starts.

--Rockies lost 11 of their last 13 games.
--Arizona won its last two games, scoring 19 runs.

--Under is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Colorado road games.

American League
•Indians-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Carrasco is 0-3, 7.36 in four starts, last of which was April 25.
--Kuroda is 1-1, 3.51 in his last five starts.

--Cleveland lost nine of its last twelve away games. .
--Yankees won 14 of its last 22 games.

--Ten of last twelve Kuroda starts stayed under total.

•Tigers-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Price is 6-1, 1.98 in his last eight starts.
--Buehrle is 1-3, 6.16 in his last six starts.

--Detroit is 10-13 since the All-Star break.
--Toronto lost six of its last eight games.

--Under is 12-3-1 in Detroit's last sixteen road games.

•Rangers-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Texas lost last nine Martinez starts (0-4, 8.87 in last five).
--Keuchel is 1-1, 1.57 in his last three starts.

--Texas lost 12 of its last 17 games.
--Astros won six of last seven home games.

--Under is 11-5-2 in last eighteen Texas games.

•Twins-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Hughes is 1-3, 4.50 in his last four starts.
--Hammel is 1-4, 7.94 in five starts for A's, but won his last one.

--Minnesota lost its last four games, outscored 23-13.
--Athletics are 21-6 in their last 27 home games.

--Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over total.

•White Sox-Mariners - 4:10 PM
--Danks is 1-1, 10.29 in his last four starts.
--Ramirez is 0-1, 1.33 in his last five starts, last of which was July 22.

--White Sox lost six of their last eight games.
--Mariners won five of their last seven games.

--Eight of last eleven White Sox games went over the total.

•Red Sox-Angels - 3:35 PM
--De La Rosa is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts.
--Santiago is 0-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.

--Boston lost 12 of its last 16 games.....pending result of Sat. game
--Angels lost their last four games.

--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Boston road games.

Interleague
•Cardinals-Orioles - 1:35 PM
--Lynn is 3-2, 2.33 in his last six starts.
--Gausman is 2-0, 3.20 in his last three starts.

--Cardinals lost last two nights in this series, allowing 22 runs.
--Baltimore won ten of its last thirteen games.

--Ten of last eleven Lynn starts stayed under the total.

•Giants-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Lincecum is 0-2, 7.29 in his last four starts.
--Duffy is 2-0, 1.02 in his last three starts.

--Giants lost four of their last five games.
--Kansas City won nine of its last ten games.

--Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Giant games.

•Rays-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Cobb is 3-0, 1.71 in his last four starts.
--Wood is 0-3, 7.96 in his last seven starts.

--Tampa Bay won 18 of its last 22 road games.
--Cubs lost three of their last four games.

--Last three Cobb starts stayed under the total.

•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hand 4-5; Cueto 15-9
-- Wheeler 11-12; Kendrick 10-13
-- Gonzalez 10-8; Wood 5-10
-- Ross 12-12 (won last 4); Morton 10-13
-- Kershaw 15-3 (won last 12); Nelson 3-2
-- Morales 6-10; Miley 12-12

-- Carrasco 1-3; Kuroda 10-13
-- Price 14-9/1-0; Buehrle 15-8 (4-7 last 11)
-- Martinez 4-10 (lost last nine); Keuchel 11-10
-- Hughes 14-9; Hammel 10-7/1-4
-- Danks 11-12; Ramirez 4-8
-- De La Rosa 4-6; Santiago 5-10

-- Lynn 14-9; Gausman 8-3
-- Lincecum 14-9; Duffy 8-9
-- Cobb 8-9; Wood 12-11

•Umpires Trends
-- Mia-Cin-- Over is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Vanover games.
-- NY-Phil-- Underdogs won seven of last nine Woodring games.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Four of last five Cuzzi games went over total.
-- SD-Pitt-- Five of last seven Conroy games stayed under.
-- LA-Mil-- Road team won four of last five Tumpane games.
-- Col-Az-- Last seven Reynolds games stayed under the total.

-- Cle-NY-- 13 of last 16 O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Det-Tor-- Four of last five Miller games went over total.
-- Tex-Hst-- Favorites won eight of last ten Demuth games.
-- Min-A's-- Favorites won eight of last ten LBarrett games.
-- Chi-Sea-- Underdogs are 15-7 in last 22 Hudson games.
-- Bos-LA-- Four of last five Bucknor games stayed under.

-- StL-Balt-- Over is 10-1-1 in last twelve Morales games.
-- SF-KC-- Five of last six Barksdale games stayed under.
-- TB-Chi-- Six of last seven HGibson games stayed under.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is a spot-less 12-0 with a 1.15 ERA his last twelve team starts. Kershaw leads the majors with a 1.82 ERA -- which seems slightly bloated compared to his 0.78 career mark at Miller Park. The left-hander will try to win his 11th straight decision and help the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers avoid a three-game sweep Sunday by the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kershaw has limited Milwaukee to a .227 average that is actually the third-highest against him among National League teams. Much of that damage has been at home, with Kershaw limiting the Brewers to a .133 average in three victories at Miller Park.

Diamond Trends - Sunday
•TEXAS is 9-31 (-22.9 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.5, OPPONENT 5.3.

•KANSAS CITY is 24-8 UNDER (+14.9 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.5, OPPONENT 3.3.

•CHICAGO CUBS are 13-0 (+13.2 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 7.1, OPPONENT 3.7.

•TIM LINCECUM is 16-5 (+11.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LINCECUM 5.8, OPPONENT 3.0.

•JOHN DANKS is 8-0 OVER (+8.3 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season.
The average score was DANKS 5.0, OPPONENT 8.4.

•CLAYTON KERSHAW is 16-4 (+12.8 Units) against the run line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KERSHAW 5.5, OPPONENT 2.7.

Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SEATTLE) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) - American League, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games.
(39-3 since 1997.) (92.9%, +32.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -205
The average score in these games was: Team 6.1, Opponent 2.9 (Average run differential = +3.2)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +13.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-2, +20.4 units).

•Play On - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (National League), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(39-16 since 1997.) (70.9%, +37.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (43-12)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +136
The average score in these games was: Team 6.5, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +2.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 31 (56.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2, +2.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2, +5.1 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (American League), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(39-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.6%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 7.8, Money Line=-101
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 4.5 (Total runs scored = 9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 30 (66.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7, +12.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (56-36, +17.1 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball bettors need to forget projections and live in the now
By MARC MELTZER

I often say that betting on MLB and playing fantasy baseball are closely related. They’re not quite the same but there are many similarities in honing skills in both.

When the MLB season moves beyond the All-Star Game, many of the fantasy baseball experts will look at the remainder of the season with a different set of glasses. They often begin to look at the stats of the player and not the name of the player.

After more than half the baseball season has been played, the thought is that you can often throw preconceived notions of players and teams out of the window and focus on actual production.

While a great notion, many gamblers know this isn’t entirely true. Previous player or team production doesn’t always equate to future success or failure. Having said that, there’s a good point to be learned from this fantasy baseball thought.

When with former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green famously said, "The Bears are what we thought they were. We played them in preseason..." after a mid-season loss. That's not always the case in football, baseball or any other sport after enough games.

When handicapping baseball games every day, we’re looking at current and previous data to predict future results. Still, MLB bettors can use the old fantasy baseball adage as a reminder not to get too lost in preconceived evaluation. Fantasy players may be more concerned with individual players than team results but it's easy for bettors and fantasy players to get lost in some of the fandom.

Before the MLB season began, ESPN projected that Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies would be the No. 5 player in fantasy baseball, hitting 33 home runs with an OPS of .933. More than halfway through the season, Gonzalez has 11 home runs with an OPS of .737. This puts “CarGo” as a pretty middling player for the year. If you’re paying attention to the Rockies’ stats on a regular basis, you’ve probably moved on from assuming he’ll have a great year.

Preseason team rankings from Baseball Prospectus had the Milwaukee Brewers finishing, on average, 3.7th in the National League Central. If you were paying close attention during the season you saw that this might be a little off after just a few weeks. If you’re only betting on MLB sporadically, you might want to move past what preseason expectations were for the Brewers and all other teams.

If you’ve been betting on MLB all season, you’re probably up to date on all relevant statistics and data for betting for the rest of the year. If you’ve been betting baseball on and off during the season, you’re going to want to step back.

Like all sports, the results in baseball aren’t so easily predicted. The information you remember hearing about in the beginning of the season may not have come to fruition. Step back from predictions and preconceived notions about what you think might happen during the baseball season and actually bet on what is happening.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Nationals vs. Braves

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (-113, 7)

The Washington Nationals sit in first place in the National League East, but would feel a lot better about their postseason chances if Gio Gonzalez can return to being one of the game’s top left-handers. Gonzalez starts Sunday night’s series finale at Atlanta seeking his first victory in more than a month, and looking to help Washington build momentum after the Nationals won 4-1 in 11 innings Saturday. Washington's victory dropped the Braves 4½ games back in the NL East.

Since scoring seven runs in the first five innings of the series opener Friday, Atlanta has plated just one in its past 15 innings. Freddie Freeman collected three hits in Saturday’s loss – which ended at 2:29 a.m. ET on Sunday following a 3-hour, 41-minute rain delay – and is batting .500 against Washington this season. The Nationals scratched top outfield prospect Michael Taylor from Saturday’s game with Triple-A Syracuse, and Taylor is expected to join the big-league club as Jayson Werth is hobbled by shoulder and ankle injuries.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Braves as -108 home faves, which has since moved to -113. The total opened at 7.

INJURY REPORT: Nationals: 3B Ryan Zimmerman (Mid September, hamstring), LF Nate McLouth (15-day DL, shoulder). Braves: SS Andrelton Simmons (Doubtful, ankle)

POWER RANKINGS: Nationals (-173), Braves (-160)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This series probably means a little more to the Braves as they try to track down the Nats in the N.L. East. On paper, it looks like Washington owns a significant edge on the mound in this one, with the veteran Gio Gonzalez going up against Alex Wood. However, Wood has more than held his own this season, particularly at home, where he's posted a 3.00 ERA. Atlanta is 3-1 in his four career starts against Washington. Braves are favored for a reason here in my opinion." Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Atlanta a very small -110 favorite as Wood has been a better pitcher recently (3.0 ERA last 3 starts, compared to 5.4 ERA for Gonzalez)." Mike Perry.


PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.01 ERA) vs. Braves LH Alex Wood (7-9, 3.20)

Gonzalez was 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA after beating the Cubs on July 5, but is 0-4 in his past five outings with a 5.40 ERA and a .269 opponents batting average. He has lost his past three starts, giving up four runs on six hits in six innings Tuesday to lose to the Mets. Gonzalez, who has averaged 15.8 victories since 2010, lost his only start to Atlanta on April 13 with six runs allowed on nine hits.

Wood makes his 16th start of the season and ninth since rejoining the rotation June 25, and has gone 4-8 with a 2.96 ERA as a starter. He gave up one earned run (four runs total) in six innings to lose Tuesday at Seattle, and has given up one earned run in three of his past four outings. Wood split two decisions against the Nationals in April, posting a 2.25 ERA.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 7-0 in umpire Phil Cuzzi's last seven games behind home plate.
* Nationals are 0-7 in Gonzalez's last seven starts vs. Braves.
* Nationals are 6-0 in their last six Sunday games.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Wood's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: 54.26 percent of wagers are backing the Braves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB roundup: McCann on concussion DL
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The New York Yankees placed catcher Brian McCann on the seven-day concussion disabled list Saturday.

The club recalled catcher Austin Romine from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and unconditionally released infielder Brian Roberts.

McCann left Friday night's game against the Cleveland Indians in the sixth inning. Francisco Cervelli pinch-hit for McCann, who was feeling the effects of a third-inning foul ball off his mask. McCann is batting .238 with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs this season.

Roberts batted .237 with five homers and 21 RBIs in 317 at-bats in his first season with the Yankees. He spent the first 13 year of his major-league career with the Baltimore Orioles. He is a career .276 hitter with 97 homers, 285 stolen bases and 542 RBIs.


---The Miami Marlins called up right-hander Brad Penny from Triple-A New Orleans to start Saturday's game against the Cincinnati Reds.

The club optioned left-hander Edgar Olmos to New Orleans to make room for Penny.

It is a 10-year reunion for Penny and the Marlins. The 36-year-old played with the Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers in his career. He signed a minor league deal with Miami in June.

From 2000 to 2004, Penny went 48-42 with a 4.04 ERA with the Marlins. His catcher was Mike Redmond, now the manager. Penny won 14 games in 2003 to help the Marlins win the World Series. Penny last played in the majors in 2012 when he made 22 relief appearances for the Giants. His last major-league start was Sept. 25, 2011, with the Tigers.


---The Chicago White Sox placed outfielder Adam Eaton on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with an oblique injury.

The club recalled outfielder Jordan Danks from Triple-A Charlotte.

Eaton, 25, was injured after returning to the lineup Friday against the Seattle Mariners. He missed Thursday with a back bruise. Eaton is batting .304 with a home run, 32 RBIs, 55 runs and 12 stolen bases in 372 at-bats.



---Texas Rangers C Chris Gimenez cleared waivers and will take some time to determine whether he will remain with the organization and accept a minor league assignment.

Gimenez was designated for assignment on Aug. 7 after hitting .262/.331/.355 in 34 games with the Rangers.


---Toronto Blue Jays first baseman-designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion was to begin a rehab assignment with Class A Dunedin on Saturday night.

Encarnacion, who has an injured right quad, is expected to rejoin the Blue Jays at some point next week.