8-14-14

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MLB

'Mets avoid sweep'

Washington Nationals and New York Mets conclude a three-game set at Citi Field Thursday night. Righthander Stephen Strasburg toes the rubber for Washington, entering the game with a 8-10 record, 3.68 ERA over 25 starts with a 12-13 TSR. In his last outing in Atlanta, he was slammed for 7 runs over 5 innings bringing his mark to 1-8 on the road with 5.25 ERA in 12 trips to the mound (4-8 TSR). Mets counter with Dillon Gee carrying a 4-4 record, 3.54 ERA (6-8 TSR). The New York hurler is off a sharp 7 innings of 3 hit 1 run ball tagged with a ND in Mets' 2-1 victory at Philadelphia. Gee is 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA on home field over 8 starts (3-5 TSR). Mets are the inferior club in this matchup but Strasburg's home (7-2) road (1-8) dichotomy raises a red flag. This being the final game of the three-game series is yet another nod towards the Mets. The team has thrived at home in game three of a series going 12-4 including 3-0 handing the ball to Gee. Final betting nugget. Mets are 4-1 at home avoiding a three game sweep, Washington is 0-2 away w/Strasburg attempting a three game sweep.

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Hondo

Kemp failed miserably at crunch time Wednesday night, which gave Hondo a loss in Atlanta that boosted the accounts payable to 1,580 morrises.

Thursday: Mr. Aitch will try again with sure-as-shootin’ Scherzer — 10 units on the Big Cats to scratch out a victory over the Bucs.

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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Thursday

Six Major League Baseball plays on my card for Thurday. Best of luck!

-EZ


3* (914) Kansas City Royals -$115

3* (904) Chicago Cubs +$110

3* (908) New York Mets +$125

3* (915) Houston Astros +$125

3* (909) San Diego Padres +$140

3* (904) Colorado Rockies -$120

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Maddux

NFLX

10* Jacksonville Jaguars +4 -110

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Today's MLB Picks

Washington at NY Mets

The Mets look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they host a Nationals team that is 1-5 in Stephen Strasburg's last 6 road starts. New York is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 14 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Hernandez) 15.110; Atlanta (Harang) 16.263 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Fiers) 16.404; Cubs (Jackson) 13.987 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); N/A

Game 905-906: Arizona at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 15.623; Miami (Penny) 14.504 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Miami (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.122; NY Mets (Gee) 16.322 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 16.504; St. Louis (Lackey) 15.032 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Over

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.802; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.414 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Over

Game 913-914: Oakland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Samardzija) 16.782; Kansas City (Shields) 18.322 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under

Game 915-916: Houston at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 13.677; Boston (Webster) 15.144 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 16.422; Texas (Ross) 13.875 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Under

Game 919-920: Pittsburgh at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 17.421; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.552 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+165); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Indiana

The Liberty head to Indiana tonight to face a Fever team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games. New York is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+6). Here are all of today's WNBA picks

THURSDAY, AUGUST 14 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.110; Indiana 110.318 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 138 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 143 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (+6); Under

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Royals -119

Dbacks/Marlins under 8

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WinBetNFL

NFL - Pre-season

Chicago Bears - Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Over 41

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GiLzTips

. [907] Nationals -1 (-107)

. [912] Rockies -1 (+120)

PARLAY: A's ML / Nats ML / Rockies ML / Rays ML (+1225)

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Oakland @ KANSAS CITY

Oakland +102 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2.00 units - To Win: 2.04)

2:10 PM EST. We have no idea what is going to happen in this game and neither does anyone else. What we do know is that the A's hold some tremendous value here based on information readily available to anyone that looks. We all know what James Shields brings to the table, as he's been bringing the same game to almost every start over that past seven years. A's starter, Jeff Samardzija was having a solid year in Chicago before being traded to Oakland and he's been just as good or better in his new digs. Samardzija has increased his first-pitch strike rate more than any starter from 2013 to 2014. It has jumped from 60% to an elite 67%, a mark that gives full support to his excellent control and strikeout totals. He remains a solid bet to be a legit rotation anchor down the stretch.

The value here can be found back in a game on August 3 in Oakland when Kansas City played there with James Shields starting against Scott Kazmir. Let us preface that by saying that the Royals have a better road record than they do at home. In that game in Oakland on August 3, Kazmir was a -165 favourite over Shields and now, 11 days later, Shields is -110, a difference of 78 cents against a better pitcher than Kazmir. The value on Shields was in that game. In this game, based on that line 11 days ago, there is huge value in betting against him here.


Arizona @ MIAMI

Arizona +119 over MIAMI (1st 5 innings)

(1st 5 innings) (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)

Chase Anderson is a rookie pitcher that has made 14 starts since being called up on May 11. Pitching exactly half his games at hitter-friendly Chase Field, Anderson has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts and that includes starts at Colorado and U.S. Cellular against the South Side. He's allowed one run in four of his past five starts and in the other start over that span he allowed two runs. Anderson comes in with 22 strikeouts, a 12% swing and miss rate and a 1.80 ERA over his last 25 innings. Since the All-Star break, the opposition is hitting .195 against him. The Diamondbacks played a DH yesterday and so their bullpen could be a little taxed. Add the fact that this one is based solely on the starters, thus the five-inning play. At the time of this writing the 5-inning line had not been posted yet but expect it to be in this range. We'll update it a little later.

On August 9, Brad Penny earned a win by allowing only one earned run over five innings in his first MLB start since 2011. The Marlins are rolling the dice with this 36-year old, but that does not mean you should. His skill set was borderline at his peak, so taking a flier here and spotting a price is not a smart idea. In that start against Cincinnati, Penny's swing and miss rate was 5%. We also like the situation against the Fish here. Miami has played 16 straight games against either Washington, Cinci, Pittsburgh or St. Louis, all teams that were within their grasp before that stretch started. They talked about that crucial 16-game stretch before it began and here we are in the first game after it.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | TAMPA BAY at TEXAS
Play Against - Home teams (TEXAS) terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more
246-158 since 1997. ( 60.9% | 80.9 units )
19-16 this year. ( 54.3% | 4.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | LA DODGERS at ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 18-3 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.0)

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Jaguars vs. Bears Betting Preview and Pick
By: Craig Williams

The Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars kick off the second full week of NFL preseason action Thursday night at Soldier Field (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Line: Bears -4; Total: 42

Chad Henne (4-for-7, 30 yards) started in Jacksonville's first preseason game, but it was rookie quarterback Blake Bortles who made headlines in his pro debut. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft -- and the first quarterback off the board -- finished 7-for-11 for 117 yards and a 99.4 QB rating in the Jags' 16-10 win vs. Tampa Bay.

Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley remains adamant that Henne will be his starter in 2014 while Bortles soaks the game up from the sidelines in his first year. But he's also confirmed that Bortles will receive first-team reps at some point this summer.

Also worth noting is the potential Jacksonville debut of free agent running back Toby Gerhart, who has been out of action with a hip flexor injury. The ailment wasn't considered serious, but it still held him out for two weeks. He's returned to practice and could get on the field against Chicago.

The Bears were clicking -- offensively at least -- in their first taste of live football this season, outscoring the Eagles 34-28 in a preseason shootout. Big things are expected from Jay Cutler, who finished 9-for-13 for 85 yards and a touchdown, in his second year running Marc Trestman's offense. Backup Jimmy Clausen (7-for-13, 150 yards, 2 TDs) was impressive in relief last week.

Preseason records and trends: The strongest identifiable preseason trend related to this game is the Bears' 4-1 record to the OVER in Trestman's two seasons at the helm. The Jags were 3-1 O/U last preseason, Gus Bradley's first with the team, but last week's game with the Bucs stayed well UNDER the total. Jacksonville dropped its first three exhibition games last season, both SU and ATS, while the Bears are now 2-2-1 ATS in the preseason under Trestman.

The Linemakers' lean: If this were a Week 1 regular-season matchup, the Bears would be favored in the 12.5-13 range, and while the preseason is a different beast, the spread here still feels light to us. Sure, we noticed Bortles' performance last week, but Chicago's QB rotation is still superior. In terms of the total, despite the aforementioned trends to the OVER, we're not ready to trust the Jags' offense, so we'll stick to a play in the side. Chicago -4 is the play.

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Bookiemonsters

POD Texas Rangers -135

Money Generators

Oakland Athletics -105

San Diego Padres +145

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play On - Home favorites (INDIANA) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
102-54 since 1997. ( 65.4% | 42.6 units )
1-9 this year. ( 10.0% | -8.9 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (NEW YORK) off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road win
101-24 since 1997. ( 80.8% | 0.0 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at INDIANA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points vs. division opponents
533-350 since 1997. ( 60.4% | 148.0 units )
24-12 this year. ( 66.7% | 10.8 units )

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RICH SPORTS

NFLX

2* Over 41 Jacksonville/Chicago