8-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Royals -110
50* Marlins -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee lost on Wednesday in MLB in the National League with the Marlins -$120/Cardinals.

"Mr Chalk" has Np for Thursday.

Ben lee is 0-3 -$160 for week Forty Two 187-220-5 -$3012 through Forty One Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 61-46 -$405 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob balfe

mlb
boston redsox/houston astros – over 9

nflx
chicago bears/jacksonville jaguars – over 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Jaguars at Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42.5)

Jacksonville's quarterback situation takes center stage Thursday night as the Jaguars resume their NFL preseason schedule with a game against the Bears in Chicago. The Jaguars have already laid out who will play when, with incumbent Chad Henne expected to take the snaps in the first half and rookie Blake Bortles playing the entire second half. Jacksonville had a multitude of errors on the offensive end in its exhibition opener, a 16-10 win over Tampa Bay.

The Bears have their own storylines playing out under center, though Jay Cutler's starting job is quite safe. The battle of the backups will be front and center against the Jaguars, with former high school phenom Jimmy Clausen expected to see plenty of time Thursday as he competes with Jordan Palmer for the No. 2 spot behind Cutler. The Bears were also victorious in their preseason opener, outslugging the Philadelphia Eagles 34-28 at Soldier Field.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened -4, but the line has since dipped a half-point. The O/U has risen a half-point to 42 1/2.

INJURY REPORT: Jaguars: LB Paul Posluszny (biceps), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring), DT Roy Miller (shoulder) and CB Aaron Colvin (knee) are all expected to miss the game; Bears: WR Marquess Wilson (collarbone) and T Jordan Mills (foot) aren't expected to play; S Chris Conte (shoulder) is questionable.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This is the second year in the system under head coach Marc Trestman and after improving last season, things could be even more explosive in 2014. Jay Cutler had his best passer rating since his rookie season in 2006 and got a new contract to prove his worth. The defense can only get better with the additions of Jared Allen and D.J Williams." Covers Expert Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-0): For as much attention is being paid to the battle between Henne and Bortles, the Jaguars are also paying close attention to the running game. Offseason acquisition and probable Week 1 starter Toby Gerhart will see his first in-game action in a Jacksonville uniform, and will get some sense of what he's dealing with on the offensive line. That cast of characters - featuring a host of inexperienced run-blockers - struggled against the Buccaneers to the point where they asked for - and were granted - an extra series to work out the kinks.

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-0): It isn't enough that Chicago has one of the top wide receiver tandems in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, but a new weapon may have emerged in last week's victory over Philadelphia. Tight end Zach Miller stole the show with a pair of touchdown catches versus the Eagles, and has looked sensational in practice leading up to the game against the Jaguars as he looks to provide Cutler with one more pass-catching weapon. Miller - not to be confused with Seattle tight end Zach Miller - was a sixth-round pick in 2009 who is now on his third NFL roster.

TRENDS:

* The Bears are 2-2-1 ATS in five preseason games under head coach Marc Trestman.
* The Jaguars have won two straight exhibition games SU and ATS after dropping their previous three.
* Chicago is 4-1 O/U in the preseason with Trestman at the helm.
* Jacksonville went 3-1 O/U in the 2013 exhibition season but was an Under in its 2014 opener.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 64.79 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the host Bears.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________

#901 LA DODGERS @ #902 ATLANTA - 12:10 PM
•Dodgers RH Roberto Hernandez (6-8, 3.83 ERA, WHIP: 1.307) - Hernandez won his Los Angeles debut Friday in Milwaukee, giving up two runs on three hits in six innings. It continued a strong stretch the 33-year-old began prior to his trade from Philadelphia, during which he has posted a 2.08 ERA in four outings. Hernandez went 1-1 against the Braves in two starts for the Phillies in June, giving up seven earned runs in 13 frames.

--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 28-47 (-19.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.7, OPPONENT 4.7.

•Braves RH Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.386) - Harang has been stuck on nine wins for more than a month, drawing five consecutive no-decisions despite a 2.53 ERA. He gave up four runs on nine hits at Los Angeles on July 29. Harang, who is 4-6 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.40 ERA, has held right-handers to a .230 batting average while left-handers are hitting .306.

--KEY STAT: HARANG is 2-14 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 2.6, OPPONENT 4.9.

--HARANG is 29-57 against the run line (-29.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.5, OPPONENT 4.4.

--HARANG is 2-14 against the run line (-13.2 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 2.6, OPPONENT 4.9.

#903 MILWAUKEE @ #904 CHICAGO CUBS - 2:20 PM
•Brewers RH Mike Fiers (1-1, 1.80 ERA, WHIP: 0.500) - Fiers' return to the big leagues marked a return to the strong form he showed in 2012. The 29-year-old limited the Dodgers to one run and three hits over eight innings to earn his first major-league win since May 21, 2013, and his first as a starter since Sept. 8, 2012. Fiers has made one start and one relief appearance against the Cubs, going 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA.

•Cubs RH Edwin Jackson (6-12, 5.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.557) - Jackson has posted consecutive quality starts for the first time since May, but was on the wrong end of a shutout Saturday against Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old allowed four runs (three earned) over six innings and lost for the fifth time in his last six decisions. Jackson is 5-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 13 starts against Milwaukee.

--KEY STAT: JACKSON is 18-37 (-18.4 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3.

--JACKSON is 20-42 (-20.6 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0.

--JACKSON is 28-40 against the run line (-22.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 4.0, OPPONENT 5.1.

#905 ARIZONA @ #906 MIAMI - 7:10 PM
•Diamondbacks RH Chase Anderson (7-4, 3.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.261) - Anderson continued his strong pitching Friday, limiting Colorado to one run and four hits over six innings in a 5-3 victory. The 26-year-old has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts, going 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in that span. Anderson won his only career outing against Miami on July 7, allowing one run and seven hits in six frames.

•Marlins RH Brad Penny (1-0, 1.80 ERA, WHIP: 1.600) - Penny made his first major-league appearance since 2012 on Saturday and was impressive, allowing two runs - one earned - and four hits in five innings of a 4-3 victory at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old had his contract purchased from Triple-A New Orleans, where he went 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA in five starts. Penny has been superb against Arizona over his career, going 10-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 23 games - 19 starts.

--KEY STAT: PENNY is 22-8 OVER (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PENNY 6.5, OPPONENT 3.9.
________________________________________

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#907 WASHINGTON @ #908 NY METS - 7:10 PM
•Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (8-10, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.228) - Strasburg suffered his fourth loss in five outings on Friday after tying a career high by allowing seven runs on as many hits in five innings in a 7-6 setback to the Braves. The 26-year-old served up four homers to match his sum total of the previous seven games. Strasburg, who owns a 2-1 career mark versus New York, struck out 10 but walked away with a no-decision after yielding four runs in six innings against the club on March 31.

--KEY STAT: STRASBURG is 7-14 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 3.4, OPPONENT 4.1.

--STRASBURG is 14-4 OVER (+10.2 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2.

•Mets RH Dillon Gee (4-4, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.101) - Gee pitched well in a pair of no-decisions after dropping his previous three contests. The 28-year-old deserved a better fate in his last outing, allowing one solo homer and two other hits in seven innings against Philadelphia on Saturday. Gee owns a 7-3 career mark versus Washington but also yielded four runs on as many hits in 6 2/3 innings to earn a no-decision on March 31.

--KEY STAT: GEE is 11-2 UNDER (+9.1 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 2.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

--GEE is 13-4 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

#909 SAN DIEGO @ #910 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Padres LH Eric Stults (5-13, 4.76 ERA, WHIP: 1.407) - Stults has rebounded nicely from a rough outing at Atlanta on July 27, allowing a total of two runs - one earned - and nine hits over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts - both victories. The 34-year-old, who has gone three straight turns without yielding a home run, had won only one of his previous 13 starts. Stults is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in two career outings against St. Louis.

--KEY STAT: STULTS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was STULTS 6.9, OPPONENT 4.8.

•Cardinals RH John Lackey (12-8, 3.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.279) - Lackey was pounded in his second start since being acquired from Boston, surrendering season highs of nine runs and 13 hits over five innings of a 10-3 defeat at Baltimore on Saturday. The 35-year-old served up three home runs, the most he has allowed since yielding four against the Yankees in New York on April 12. Lackey has numbers against San Diego that are identical to Stults' versus St. Louis, giving up six runs over 11 1/3 frames while splitting two starts.

--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.6, OPPONENT 2.0.

#911 CINCINNATI @ #912 COLORADO - 8:40 PM
•Reds RH Alfredo Simon (12-7, 3.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.147) - Simon received a no-decision after allowing two runs, four hits and five walks while striking out five in a 4-3 loss to Miami on Saturday. The 33-year-old Dominican, who has appeared in 200 major-league games (42 starts - 23 this season), may be feeling the rigors of his first full season in the starting rotation. Cincinnati took two of three from Colorado in May, with the loss coming when Simon was roughed up for five runs and eight hits in three innings of an 11-2 verdict.

--KEY STAT: SIMON is 11-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 4.5, OPPONENT 2.3.

--SIMON is 15-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 3.8, OPPONENT 2.4.

--SIMON is 16-6 (+11.1 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SIMON 3.9, OPPONENT 2.9.

•Colorado LH Jorge De La Rosa (11-8, 4.34 ERA, WHIP: 1.255) - De La Rosa allowed four runs and six hits for the second straight start - both losses - in six innings of a 14-4 setback in Arizona on Saturday and is winless in his last three outings. The 33-year-old Mexican, though, is a different pitcher at home as he is an eye-popping 42-14 at hitter-friendly Coors Field, including 7-2 this season. De La Rosa is 2-3 with an 8.49 ERA in 10 games (four starts) against the Reds, including a 9-6 victory last Aug. 30 when he yielded three runs and eight hits in six frames.

--KEY STAT: DE LA ROSA is 18-5 (+13.3 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.7, OPPONENT 3.8.

--DE LA ROSA is 25-5 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 8.1, OPPONENT 5.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinMatchDay

England Conference
Eastleigh vs Aldershot Town
Eastleigh (-0.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
THURSDAY, AUGUST 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________

#913 OAKLAND @ #914 KANSAS CITY - 2:10 PM
•Athletics RH Jeff Samardzija (5-8, 2.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.110) - Samardzija improved to 3-1 since being acquired from the Chicago Cubs after allowing two runs in six innings in a 9-4 victory over Minnesota on Saturday. The 29-year-old has worked at least 6 2/3 frames in each of his seven starts with the Athletics, although he has yielded six homers with his new team. Former Milwaukee player Nori Aoki has enjoyed success versus Samardzija from their days in the National League, going 7-for-16 (.438) against him.

--KEY STAT: SAMARDZIJA is 9-21 (-12.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 3.5, OPPONENT 4.6.

•Royals RH James Shields (11-6, 3.25 ERA, WHIP: 1.208) - Shields collected his second straight win in impressive fashion Saturday, scattering four hits to secure his first complete game and shutout of the season in a 5-0 victory over San Francisco. The 32-year-old improved to 6-4 in his career versus Oakland after permitting two runs on four hits in eight innings in a 4-2 win Aug. 3. Shields allowed two homers against the Athletics after yielding the same total in his previous seven contests.

--KEY STAT: SHIELDS is 41-19 (+15.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.8, OPPONENT 3.2.

--SHIELDS is 19-9 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

--SHIELDS is 8-30 against the run line (-21.1 Units) in home games versus an American League team with they batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.8.

--SHIELDS is 14-5 against the run line (+11.5 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.5, OPPONENT 2.8.

--SHIELDS is 20-8 against the run line (+13.7 Units) in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

--SHIELDS is 7-1 against the run line (+7.6 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4.

#915 HOUSTON @ #916 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Astros RH Scott Feldman (6-8, 4.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.395) - Feldman is completely recovered from a rough stretch that marred most of July and is looking for his fourth straight quality start. The veteran struck out six while allowing three runs over 6 1/3 innings to beat Texas on Saturday and has surrendered a total of five runs in his last three outings. Feldman did not have much luck against Boston on July 11, when he was lit up for seven runs on 11 hits and three walks in 5 1/3 frames to absorb a loss.

--KEY STAT: FELDMAN is 22-43 (-27.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1.

--FELDMAN is 31-49 (-26.2 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 4.4, OPPONENT 4.9.

--FELDMAN is 18-4 against the run line (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.4.

•Red Sox RH Allen Webster (2-1, 4.91 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Webster bounced back from a disastrous turn and earned himself another chance by holding the Los Angeles Angels to two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings to pick up a win on Friday. The 24-year-old issued just two walks in that start after handing out six free passes in 2 2/3 frames is his previous turn. Webster owns an 8.10 ERA in six career games - five starts - in Boston.
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#917 TAMPA BAY @ #918 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Rays RH Jake Odorizzi (8-9, 3.89 ERA, WHIP: 1.304) - The Rays send Jake Odorizzi to the hill as they look for a sixth win in their last eight. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.63 ERA over 11 starts since June 10, a stretch in which he's gone 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four road outings.
Odorizzi was impressive as the visitor again Saturday, striking out nine while allowing three hits in six innings of a 4-0 win over the Chicago Cubs. He yielded three hits in six scoreless innings of an 8-1 home win in his only career meeting with Texas on April 4.

--KEY STAT: ODORIZZI is 8-0 OVER (+8.3 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ODORIZZI 6.6, OPPONENT 6.1.

•Rangers LH Robbie Ross Jr. (2-4, 5.61 ERA, WHIP: 1.551) - Ross began the season in the rotation but was roughed up often in nine starts and was demoted to the bullpen. He continued to struggle and was eventually demoted to Triple-A Round Rock in mid-June and went 4-4 with a 5.10. Right-handed hitters are batting .349 and slugging .482 against the left-hander. Ross has allowed two hits in 5 2/3 innings over five scoreless relief appearances against Tampa Bay.

Interleague
#919 PITTSBURGH @ #920 DETROIT - 1:05 PM
•Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (3-8, 3.82 ERA, WHIP: 1.292) - Liriano is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in two interleague outings this season after going 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA in 2013. He suffered his lone interleague loss last season in Detroit on May 27, giving up four runs in five innings of a 6-5 defeat. After a rocky, injury-plagued first half in 2014, Liriano is 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five outings since the All-Star break. The left-hander, though, has received a combined two runs of support in his last two games. He took a 2-1 loss to San Diego on Saturday despite yielding two runs, three hits and one walk in seven innings.

--KEY STAT: LIRIANO is 39-18 UNDER (+18.3 Units) in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LIRIANO 3.7, OPPONENT 4.0.

•Tigers RH Max Scherzer (13-4, 3.13 ERA, WHIP: 1.161) - Scherzer was superb in his last outing but ended up with a no-decision against Toronto. He allowed one run and four hits in eight innings and struck out 11 while walking none. Scherzer is 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Pirates. The right-hander will try to become the AL's first 14-game winner in his first start against Pittsburgh since June 23, 2012. He last faced the Pirates at Comerica Park a month before that, striking out a career-high 15 over seven innings in a 4-3 win.

--KEY STAT: SCHERZER is 31-10 (+15.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.3, OPPONENT 2.9.

--SCHERZER is 15-1 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.9, OPPONENT 2.9.

--SCHERZER is 12-0 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 6.8, OPPONENT 2.8.

--SCHERZER is 19-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.9, OPPONENT 3.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UNDER Umpire Streakers

#913 UN 7 -110 OAK/KC 1.10u to win 1.00u
TGibson 80v/16un L24gms 66.7%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

DODGERS ML +110 *2*

There is good value in the Dodgers as an underdog here. Before last nights 3-2 loss the Dodgers had won 7 straight vs the Braves. They are also 39-26 on the road this year. The Dodgers have won 7 of 10 while the Braves have won 3 of 10. Hernandez has better numbers than Harang this year and he has been hot pitching to a 1.71 ERA and 0.62 WHIP his last 3 starts. Harang has lost his last 3 starts and has struggled with a 1.47 WHIP.

PIRATES @ TIGERS F5 UNDER 4 -125 *3*

Scherzer looking like himself again now with 9 straight quality starts allowing 1 run in 5 of those, 2 runs in 3 starts and 3 runs just once. Meanwhile, Liriano after a rough start to his season has also come into his own. He also has not allowed more than 3 runs in 9 straight starts dating all the way back to May 30th

[Can'tPickAWinner]

livewebpicks

KC Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

4% Arizona Diamondbacks +110
3% Tampa Bay Rays -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

TV play Jax +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

3* Tampa Bay RL-1.5 +120
3* Detroit RL-1.5 +110
3* Milwaukee RL-1.5 +125
3* St. Louis RL-1.5 +135
3* Boston RL-1.5 + 140

Free play – Cincinnati +105 vs Colorado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Thursday Early Game MLB Team Total

DETROIT TIGERS – OVER 4 RUNS (-125 @BOL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX DAVE'S BEST BET

JACKSONVILLE (401) AT CHICAGO (402)
Latest Line: BEARS -3.5; Total: 41

Gonna fade the line movement in tonight's contest and lay the points with the Bears. Chicago is bringing to much to the table versus low-scoring Jaguars and this trend is in our favor: Play On Favorites (CHICAGO) - after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (27-9 over the last 5 Pre-Seasons.)
BEARS -3.5