8-15-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Eskimos at Redblacks

Edmonton Eskimos at Ottawa Redblacks (+7, 50.5)

The Edmonton Eskimos brief East Division road trip concludes with a visit to the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday. The Redblacks are on a three-game losing streak and their defense is the only one in the league averaging more than 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards allowed. Edmonton is 3-0 on the road and 3-0 against East Division foes after toppling the Montreal Alouettes in Week 7.

Redblacks quarterback Henry Burris enters the contest with a completion rate of 58.1 percent and five interceptions, which does not bode well against an Eskimos' defense that leads the league in interceptions with 10 and is second in sacks with 23. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly is tied for the league lead with 11 touchdown passes in what has been a balanced Eskimos' offense. In order to have a chance at winning, Ottawa will need to hold Edmonton to fewer than 30 points - something the team has not done since Week 4.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Eskies as 6.5-point road faves, but that has moved to -7. The total opened 51.5 and has moved to 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Eskimos - RB John White (Questionable, hand)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It's by no means desperation time for the Redblacks, even after a 1-5 start to the season. After all, most believe the CFL season doesn't really get going until Labour Day. With that being said, Ottawa could certainly use a lift right now, and perhaps a revenge match (the Eskimos took the first meeting 27-11) with Edmonton will offer a spark. The Eskimos are on the road for the second straight week, and down a few key cogs with Fred Stamps, J.C. Sherritt, and possibly John White (who is enjoying a breakout year in the backfield). We'll see where the line settles, but may find some value with the Redblacks at home in this spot." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (5-1): Adarius Bowman leads the league with 440 receiving yards and is one touchdown catch away from tying his career-high of six. Defensive linemen Almondo Sewell (six sacks) and Odell Willis (five sacks) will lead the charge against Burris and the Redblacks. Edmonton lost running back John White to a hand injury last week and linebacker Eric Samuels is questionable with a neck injury.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (1-5): Former Eskimos slotback Marcus Henry leads Ottawa with 349 receiving yards and is on pace for a career season in his first year away from Edmonton. Running back Chevon Walker has been the Redblacks’ most consistent performer on offense and signed a two-year contract extension with the team last week. Linebacker Jasper Simmons leads the team in tackles (28) and interceptions (two).

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* RedBlacks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Eskimos last four games in August.
* Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 60 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the visiting Eskimos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Divisional rival not happy seeing this Royals pitcher
Justin Hartling

The Minnesota Twins have never been able to figure out Kansas City Royals' Darren Duffy. The Twins are 0-4 in their last four starts against Duffy.

Those four starts have seen the Twins score only four runs against Duffy and have 21 strikeouts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intra-divisional matchup has been one-sided
Justin Hartling

To say the Los Angeles Angels have been decimating the Texas Rangers may be an understatement. The Angels going into their weekend series with the Rangers taking the last seven games.

The Angels have outscored the Rangers 48-22, a run differential of 26, and have held the Rangers to three runs or less five times.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under bettors rush to the window with these teams

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins have been a boon for totals bettors. In the last eight meetings between the D-Backs and Marlins, the teams are carrying a 1-7 over/under record.

The two teams have combined for 38 runs in those eight games (average 4.75 per game) and have six times scored five runs or less combined.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bottom-dwellers seeing high total
Justin Hartling

The Atlanta Dream and Tulsa Shock have been lacking offense as of late. Over the past six games the teams have averaged 78 and 75 points respectively, which equals 153 points per game.

In their one meeting this year, the Dream and Shock scored a combined 160 points.

The Dream and Shock' current total is 162.5 for their matchup Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lynx dominance of opponent has paid-out
Justin Hartling

The Minnesota Lynx are travelling to friendly San Antonio Friday. The Lynx have covered seven of their last eight against the Stars, including four of their last five in San Antonio.

In all eight of the previous meetings the Lynx have been favored and that is no different as they are -3.5 Friday.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB System Play

NFLX Double system Power play on Friday after Winning again last night now 34-15 on ALL NFLX Sides the last few seasons. MLB cashed big too tonight its the 100% MLB Total of th Month that beats the line by 3 runs on average, and a Second totals system that has won all 14 times since 2004. Free MLB System Play below





On Friday the free MLB Power System Play is on the SF. Giants. Game 964 at 10:15 eastern. The Giants fit a Powerful system that has not lost in the history of the database going 12-0 and winning by and average 8-3 score. While we don't believe they will win by 5 runs tonight, we do think they will take down the Phillies. We are playing on home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and had 5+ hits. The Phillies are 0-3 on the road off a 1 run road loss. Bumgarner and Hamels are on the mound tonight. Hamels has not been bad but has been victimized by a lack of run support and that should be the case again tonight as the Phillies will be on the road vs Bumgarner who has won 5 of his last 6 home August starts an shut down the Phillies going 8 scoreless against them last month. Look for the Giants to take the opener. Huge T.G.I.F NFLX Double system Power play on Friday after Winning again last night now 34-15 on ALL NFLX Sides the last few seasons. MLB cashed big too tonight its the 100% MLB Total of th Month that beats the line by 3 runs on average, + Another totals system that has won all 14 times since 2004. Jump on and Start the weekend big with the finest data available. For the free Play take the Giants. GC




SU: 12-0
Runs
Team 8.2
Opp 3.3

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/LOUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Jun 28, 2005 box Tue home Athletics Barry Zito - L Mariners Jamie Moyer - L 8-1 7 W 1.5 O 12-7 0-0 7-1 -145 7.5 9
Aug 29, 2006 box Tue home White Sox Freddy Garcia - R Rays Casey Fossum - L 12-9 3 W 11.0 O 13-11 0-2 7-0 -210 10.0 9
Apr 11, 2008 box Fri home Rays James Shields - R Orioles Jeremy Guthrie - R 10-5 5 W 6.0 O 15-8 1-1 5-3 -155 9.0 9
Apr 21, 2008 box Mon home Cubs Carlos Zambrano - R Mets John Maine - R 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 8-5 0-2 6-0 -140 8.5 9
Aug 22, 2008 box Fri home Cardinals Adam Wainwright - R Braves Charlie Morton - R 18-3 15 W 12.0 O 26-10 0-0 17-0 -200 9.0 9
Sep 19, 2008 box Fri home Yankees Carl Pavano - R Orioles Radhames Liz - R 3-2 1 W -5.0 U 9-8 1-0 1-2 -200 10.0 9
Jun 16, 2009 box Tue home Yankees CC Sabathia - L Nationals Shairon Martis - ? 5-3 2 W -2.0 U 8-6 0-1 2-1 -360 10.0 9
May 21, 2010 box Fri home Rangers Colby Lewis - R Cubs Ted Lilly - L 2-1 1 W -6.0 U 7-8 1-2 1-1 -155 9.0 9
Sep 03, 2010 box Fri home Yankees Ivan Nova - R Blue Jays Brandon Morrow - R 7-3 4 W 1.0 O 11-6 0-0 4-1 -150 9.0 9
Jun 20, 2011 box Mon home Red Sox Andrew Miller - L Padres Wade LeBlanc - L 14-5 9 W 8.5 O 14-13 0-0 10-0 -190 10.5 9
Jul 23, 2012 box Mon home Diamondbacks Ian Kennedy - R Rockies Jonathan Sanchez - L 6-3 3 W -0.5 U 8-6 0-0 5-0 -215 9.5 9
Jul 11, 2014 box Fri home Indians Corey Kluber - R White Sox Hector Noesi - R 7-4 3 W 3.0 O 10-8 0-2 3-2 -215 8.0 9

Aug 15, 2014 Fri home Giants Madison Bumgarner - LPhillies Cole Hamels - L

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Friday

#403 PHILADELPHIA @ #404 NEW ENGLAND
Line: Patriots -3, Total: 47

Familiar preseason foes will meet in Foxboro (7:30 PM EST) on Friday when the New England Patriots play host to the Philadelphia Eagles. For the second consecutive week the Patriots are conducting joint practice sessions with their preseason opponent in advance of the game as the Eagles arrived early to partake in preparation with New England on Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of the game. "I'm looking forward to this week," said New England head coach Bill Belichick. "It'll be a big opportunity for our team and for each of us individually to improve on where we were last week."

The Patriots need to improve after an ugly preseason opener without star quarterback Tom Brady. Washington easily handled New England, 23-6, last week behind backup signal caller, Kirk Cousins, who played the majority of the opening half and threw a touchdown pass. New England rested Brady along with their key offseason acquisition, All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. Ryan Mallett started in place of Brady but was shaky in the first half, finishing 5-of-12 for 55 yards through the air. Jimmy Garoppolo, a rookie out of Eastern Illinois, who won the 2013 Walter Payton Award as the top player in FCS, was 9-of-13 for 157 yards. That included a 26-yard TD pass to Brian Tyms late in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, also fell in its preseason opener, losing a 34-28 shootout in Chicago. The Eagles started slow behind Nick Foles, who was intercepted just twice in 317 passing attempts last season, and matched that total by getting picked off twice in his three possessions under center. Backup Mark Sanchez was far more efficient, connecting on 7-of-10 passes for 79 yards and leading the Eagles' second-team offense to 14 points courtesy of Matthew Tucker's two touchdown runs. Rookie wide receiver Josh Huff added a 102-yard kickoff-return touchdown for Philadelphia. "Well, the kickoff return was set up by my teammates," said Huff, who was drafted by the Eagles in the third round out of Oregon. "I couldn't have done it without them. That kickoff return was something special for me and my teammates."

Last season, the Patriots held joint sessions with the Eagles in Philadelphia prior to a 31-22 New England win. In all, the Pats and Eagles have met 21 previous times in the preseason with New England holding a slim 11-10 advantage in the series.

StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 8 times, while the favorite covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 8 times, while the underdog won straight up 7 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 24 times, while the underdog covered first half line 19 times. *No EDGE. 2 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (NEW ENGLAND) - after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(61-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.2%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (114-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (227-135).
__________________________________________________ _______

#405 TENNESSEE @ #406 NEW ORLEANS
Line: Saints -3.5, Total: 43

Frequent preseason rivals renew hostilities (8:00 PM EST) on Friday evening when the New Orleans Saints entertain the Tennessee Titans at the Mercedes- Benz Superdome. Dating back their days as the Houston Oilers, the Titans have been New Orleans' most common preseason opponent as the two clubs have squared off 29 times, with the series deadlocked at 14-14-1.

Quarterback Ryan Griffin was the star in the Saints' preseason opener, throwing for 179 yards and a touchdown as New Orleans edged the St, Louis Rams, 26-24, in The Show Me State. With All-Pro Drew Brees sidelined with an oblique injury Griffin, a second- year product out of Tulane, came on for backup Luke McCown and completed 16- of-23 passes. He found first round pick Brandin Cooks for a 25-yard touchdown connection late in the third quarter that proved to be the difference.

Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson each ran for touchdowns, with Ingram racking up 83 yards on eight carries. Cooks caught five balls for 55 yards in addition to the score for the Saints, who finished with an 11-5 record in 2013. Brees was back at practice in full pads on Tuesday but expect the Saints to be very cautious with their franchise player. So far coach Sean Payton has labeled Brees as day-to-day.

The Titans, meanwhile, also won their preseason opener after Jackie Battle's 7-yard touchdown run with 5:02 remaining lifted Tennessee to a 20-16 victory over the Green Bay Packers in a rain-soaked affair at LP Field. The rainfall amount reportedly reached three inches in the vicinity of the stadium, making ball security a problem for both squads. They combined for eight total fumbles.

Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger completed three passes for 71 yards on the go- ahead drive and the Titans were able to run out the clock after the Packers couldn't convert on 4th-and-1 at the Tennessee 24. Titans starting signal caller Jake Locker played just two series, completing one of his two passes. Backup Charlie Whitehurst saw much of the work, completing 10-of-15 for 94 yards and a touchdown.

StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 10 times, while the underdog covered the spread 4 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 3 times. 6 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 12 times, while the favorite covered first half line 11 times. *No EDGE. 9 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total (NEW ORLEANS) - in non-conference games, after a road game where both teams score 24 points or more.
(27-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.0%, +17.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 10.7 (Total first half points scored = 25)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-7).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (37-30).
__________________________________________________ _______

#407 DETROIT @ #408 OAKLAND
Line: Raiders -2.5, Total: 39

Matt Schaub's first foray at the helm of the Oakland Raiders wasn't exactly aesthetically pleasing. The veteran will give it another try when his new club welcomes Detroit to the O.co Coliseum for the Raiders' preseason home opener (10:00 PM EST) on Friday night. Schaub finished just 3-of-7 for 21 yards against a stingy Minnesota defense in a 10-6 Vikings win last Friday.

High-profile free-agent running back pickup Maurice-Jones Drew flashed a little more in his Oakland debut, registering 10 yards rushing on two carries and hauling in two passes for 14 more. Third-string QB Matt McGloin ran in for a 10-yard score in the closing minutes of the final quarter for the Raiders only scoring. The two-point conversion was unsuccessful, however.

The Lions, meanwhile, spoiled Johnny Manziel's much-anticipated debut for Cleveland last week, grabbing a 13-12 victory over the Browns in the preseason opener for both clubs. Detroit was operating for the first time under new head coach Jim Caldwell, who took over the reins after the Lions fired Jim Schwartz following a 7-9 season that saw the team lose six of their final seven games.

The Lions had fumbled twice in the fourth quarter in Cleveland territory, but their final possession of the game saw Cleveland hit with three holding calls, and Kellen Moore found Corey Fuller in the left corner of the end zone for the 13-12 lead with 1:05 to play. Detroit then sealed the win with an interception of Tyler Thigpen. Lions starting quarterback Matthew Stafford played the opening series and led the team to a 37-yard field goal from Nate Freese.

The Raiders have dominated their preseason series with the Lions, owning a 5-1 advantage.

StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 15 times, while the favorite covered the spread 9 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 30 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 36 times, while the favorite covered first half line 22 times. *No EDGE. 32 games went over first half total, while 30 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (OAKLAND) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game.
(41-16 since 1993.) (71.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.8, Opponent 10.8 (Total first half points scored = 23.6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
__________________________________________________ _______

#409 SAN DIEGO @ #410 SEATTLE - 10:00 PM
Line: Seahawks -6, Total: 38.5

The reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks kick off the home portion of their preseason schedule by entertaining the San Diego Chargers (10:00 PM EST) on Friday. Seattle began defense of the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy by coming up short against Denver last week in a rematch from Super Bowl XLVIII. Brock Osweiler's 34-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Norwood in the fourth quarter lifted the Broncos to a 21-16 win just over six months after the Seahawks decimated Denver in the big game.

The game was delayed for 45 minutes because of lightning with 1:30 remaining in the first quarter after Ronnie Hillman's 1-yard touchdown gave the Broncos a 7-0 lead. Terrelle Pryor, acquired from Oakland in April, passed for 137 yards for the Seahawks. Starter Russell Wilson completed four of his six passes for 37 yards and led Seattle to a touchdown on its second possession, Christine Michael's 1-yard score in the second quarter. Steven Hauschka kicked three field goals for the Seahawks, including two of at least 40 yards.

Pryor led the Seahawks to the Denver 3-yard line in the final minutes of the game but was intercepted in the end zone by linebacker Steven Johnson. The Chargers, meanwhile, got things started on the right foot, dominating Dallas, 27-7, in their preseason opener. San Diego, which went 9-7 last season before losing to the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, racked up 395 yards of total offense on Dallas.

Philip Rivers played one series and completed all four of his passes for 61 yards. Backup Kellen Clemens connected on all five of his passes for 134 yards and a touchdown and Brad Sorensen completed 5-of-7 passes for 48 yards. Rookie running back Branden Oliver carried the ball seven times for 64 yards and a score San Diego, which had 152 yards on the ground. Dontrelle Inman caught three passes for 107 yards and a touchdown.

StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 10 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 8 times. 21 games went under the total, while 16 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 34 times, while the favorite covered first half line 28 times. *No EDGE. 44 games went over first half total, while 22 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (SAN DIEGO) - after playing a game at home against opponent after playing their last game on the road.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 11.8 (Total first half points scored = 22)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (94-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (178-110).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Football Trends

NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Friday, 8/15/14

Philadelphia at New England, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: 15-30 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
New England: 5-1 OVER after playing a non-conference game

Tennessee at New Orleans, 8:00 ET
Tennessee: 23-10 OVER in road games
New Orleans: 9-1 ATS in all games

Detroit at Oakland, 10:00 ET
Detroit: 6-3 ATS in all games
Oakland: 3-6 ATS in all games

San Diego at Seattle, 10:00 ET
San Diego: 20-7 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game
Seattle: 7-0 ATS as a favorite

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Week 8 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett


The CFL's Western teams are a combined 22-9 SU and 20-11 ATS heading into Week 8 of the season, while the Eastern teams are a combined 5-18 SU and 7-16 ATS. West meets East in five matchups on the CFL odds slate as the league offers up its Week 8 schedule.

Fri Aug 15 - Edmonton at Ottawa

Last 10 Meetings: Ottawa 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS | OU 0-1

The Eskimos won both SU and ATS against the RedBlacks in the first meeting of the season between the two teams on July 11, claiming a 27-11 home victory as a 5-point favorite on the CFL odds in that UNDER result. Edmonton heads into the week with as many SU victories (five) as all four teams combined in the East Division of the CFL; Ottawa has just a single SU victory over its first five outings.

Sat Aug 16 - Calgary at Hamilton

Last 10 Meetings: Hamilton 1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 4-6

The Tiger-Cats lost their fifth straight game SU against the Stampeders in their first meeting of the season on July 18, falling 10-7 but covering the spread on the CFL betting lines as a 9.5-point road underdog. Hamilton has just one SU victory in its last 10 games against Calgary, but they've managed to cover the posted spread at the sportsbooks in four of their last six matchups.

Sat Aug 16 - Montreal at Saskatchewan

Last 10 Meetings: Saskatchewan 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 3-7

The Roughriders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against the Alouettes as those two teams meet for the first time this season on Saturday night. Saskatchewan, however, is 4-2 both SU and ATS so far on the season, while Montreal has stumbled to records of 1-5 both SU and ATS heading into Week 8 of the campaign. The UNDER has paid out in four of their last five meetings.

Sun Aug 17 - B.C. at Toronto

Last 10 Meetings: Toronto 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS | OU 4-6

The Argonauts will play their second game of the week on Sunday night as they get a visit from the Lions, who they will battle for the first time this season. The Argos and Lions split their two games last year both SU and ATS, but that made Toronto just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams. The UNDER has paid out on the CFL odds for totals bettors in four of their last six meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | EDMONTON at OTTAWA
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OTTAWA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
37-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.7% | 26.0 units )

CFL | BRITISH COLUMBIA at TORONTO
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 70 or more total yards in their previous game
51-15 since 1997. ( 77.3% | 0.0 units )

CFL | EDMONTON at OTTAWA
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (OTTAWA) with a poor scoring defense - allowing 29 or more points/game, after allowing 34 points or more in 2 straight games
46-16 since 1997. ( 74.2% | 28.4 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler - MLB Friday thoughts

Washington's first game back from a six game roadie after playing a night game, while the Pirates simply played poorly in Detroit but still are in a playoff race. Not sure Roark isn't a little too pricey at -150 here, especially since Washington isn't as solid against RHP as LHP. Morton can be serviceable, but I don't really trust the Pirates pen. Werth still questionable. At 7 I do lean over. It certainly won't go to 6.5.

Total disrespect for Woods and too much for Wheeler, IMO. The Mets really don't need to be -150 to too many people. With the total as low as it is I can make a good case for the Cubs RL here.

Cahill is instinctively a better bet on the road, and Brad Hand is what he is. Not terribly sure the Fish need to be -140, either, but, Cahill is actually tougher on RHH's which could take Stanton/McGehee out of the equation a bit. Lean under and simply can't take the D-Backs with zero bullpen.

Earlier in the season Tyson Ross was a go-to pitcher and Lynn was a fade. Tough to fathom the Cardinals ONLY being -130 to the Padres, but San Diego does have a better bullpen. No doubt I lean under, and perhaps this is the public disaster of the day at -130 since they are begging us to take the Cardinals.

The Reds go from reasonable dogs with Simon to -150 with Cueto, yet the total is still 9, not far off of the De La Rosa/Simon game Thursday. Have to think the under might be in play here, and with the Reds having some difficulty with LHP (I know it's Morales) I could see thinking about the Rockies RL. We'll see who plays and who doesn't first.

I'm not taking Grienke at -170 to a first place team. Obviously paying a premium, and IMO the better bet is the Brewers. Dodgers flying back from Atlanta is also a "yellow flag" as well.

Another game that looks odd is the Giants. That's about as cheap as you've been able to get Bumgarner in a couple of years, so again that one may look a bit too easy. I hate to take the Phillies, not ever knowing what you'll get, but Hamels at that price versus an offense that's not doing much is the only thing I can look at right now.

Porcello at only -125 to Paxton is another one that seems to say "not so fast, my friends". Paxton is clearly backed by a far better bullpen, too. That total of 8 is perhaps a bit too high, and with the Mariners rested, it may be worth a shot to take the dog here.

Since the Indians struggle far more w/RHP, this MAY be the time the Kluber is too expensive. I am not a Chen fan by any means, but almost without looking I could see taking the Orioles, at the very least on the RL.

I think instinctively people would want to back McCarthy just based on what he's been able to do since joining the Yankees. That may be the right side here, since the Rays play in Texas Thursday night, in the heat, then fly home to play the rested Yankees with the far better closer(s) in Betances and Roberson.

Yet another game in Boston that simply looks to simple. The Red Sox at home against a LHP and their only -135. Something is not quite right there. I never trust Buccholz and if the Red Sox use much bullpen on Thursday, Keuchel and his ground balls may be a very viable option.

I know Martinez is not very good, but -200 on the road is just not happening. Since the Angels are assured of 27 outs being the road team, I could see laying the RL here, especially since they're coming in rested.

I knew Duffy would be good one day, but -165 on the road, even to the Twins, is perhaps a bit much for me to swallow. Twins are rested and Nolasco is at least capable. Twins just took three of four on the road, so Twins RL or nothing, IMO.

Another perhaps live home team with the White Sox. At some point Stroman becomes over priced, and it could be here. Toronto still dinged and the White Sox CAN hit. Noesi CAN pitch once in a while. Because of the White Sox lack of any bullpen and without looking at the weather, this game could go over.

No chance I ever back Alex Wood and his fly balls. Oakland or nothing, and with both pens being solid, perhaps under given the A's have no DH and there's no familiarity with the pitchers. Maybe a great F5 under there.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Who's Not Hot - NL
By Mike Rose

The National League isn't nearly as polarizing as the American League is for baseball betting fans. However, there are still some clubs that are sucking money out of your wallets left and right that should be remembered before placing a bet on the diamond.

We'll showcase the three worst that the NL has to offer.

Colorado Rockies (46-73, -$2,667) – The Rockies had everything rolling at the beginning of the season, and there was even a point back in April when they had the best money mark in the game. However, they haven't been able to keep either shortstop Troy Tulowitzki or outfielder Carlos Gonzalez healthy this entire year, and they simply don't have all that much of a team aside from that.

The most embarrassing moment of the year might have come when they gave up a steal of home plate last week because catcher Michael McKenry was literally just too lazy to pay attention to the runner on third base when he lobbed the ball back to the pitcher's mound. The upcoming Broncos season can't start soon enough for Denver sports fans.


Arizona Diamondbacks (51-67, -$1,490) – Worse for Colorado? That steal of home came against an Arizona team which has completely given up on the season as well. The Diamondbacks made a number of relatively minor moves at the trade deadline that did net them some prospects in exchange for men like Martin Prado and Brandon McCarthy who really weren't going to be a part of the team in the long-term future either. It wasn't a complete washout.

Arizona has at least competed in the second-half of the year, and on the road, the team is 26-28 and +$252. It's playing at Chase Field that has been so brutal for the Diamondbacks. They started off the year in horrid form at home, and that just hasn't gotten any better. Arizona is 25-39 and -$1,742 at Chase Field this year.


Atlanta Braves (60-59, -$1,013) – The argument could be made that manager Fredi Gonzalez should have his job on the line if the Braves don't make the playoffs this year. They really haven't had a team with a legit shot at winning the World Series since he took over. Sure, losing RHP Kris Medlen and RHP Brandon Beachy before the season started to Tommy John surgery didn't help the cause, but this isn't a .500 team.

This is a club which should be winning at least 88-90 games and winning, at minimum, a Wild Card slot. Instead, Atlanta finds itself five games back of the Washington Nationals for the top spot in the NL East and 2 ½ games back of the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants for that last Wild Card spot. If Atlanta keeps faltering like this, both the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets could plausibly catch up, and if this team finishes fourth, there might not be any reprieve for Gonzalez, nor should there be.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLX

'Tune-Up'

The second full week of NFL preseason football continues Friday with four games on tap, followed by eleven running Saturday through Monday. Many sports bettors prefer a 'wait and see' attitude at this time of the year because most teams are content to limit activity of starters' while handing most duties to raw rookies making it tough identifying squads that will succeed during tune-up clashes. However, there are still plenty of good wagering opportunities for those who wish to participate in preseason betting. Studying past histories of teams during August and certain coaches can glean wagering edges. A team like Chiefs are always dangerous bets during warm-ups (5-16 SU, 4-15-2 ATS). San Francisco has been rock solid at home in week-2 (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS). A coach like Sean Payton instils a winning attitude during practice season which is why Saints have produce a solid 17-5 ATS stretch in August. One coach who has never given a hoot, boasting a 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS August mark entering this years tune-up play is Falcons Mike Smith. However, would not read too much into that betting nugget. Smith on the hot seat following a disastrous 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS regular season has seen the light and got his troops to pull off a rare August victory last week and could easily make it two in-a-row facing Houston which was spanked 32-zip in it's opener. As always best of luck this season but above all enjoy the games. Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later.