8-16-14

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Diamond Trends - Saturday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Padres are 10-0 since April 06, 2014 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1135.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 11-0 since September 02, 2013 as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Reds are 2-15 (+$1,691) since April 25, 2013 when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs. 2-5 this season.

CHOICE TREND:

The Nationals are 12-0 since June 04, 2014 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Yovani Gallardo starts the Brewers are 8-1 since September 18, 2010 as a 140+ dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1135.

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DAVE ESSLER

MLB Saturday

Free NFLx - 422 TAM (-140) vs 421 MIA
Analysis: The better team is all. More depth, more organized. Also thinking the under here as well.

Here’ the rest of my early thoughts:

The Giants and the often lack of offense are not -200, so it’s the Phillies RL or nothing.
After the BS Locke went through that game has pass written all over it. There’s scalping on the Pirates, but as well as Washington hits LHP that may well be “over thinking” that Locke will pitch well, so I lean Nats.

The Mets even w/Niese aren’t -150 to the Cubs, who hit LHP well, or at least fare better. Straily does not suck and right not the Cubs pen is probably more reliable, all relative. Lean Cubs RL.

I really want to take Wade Miley in the bigger park on the road. Can’t take Fish here, and because Alvarez is such a GB pitcher, lean under.

The early sharp money is on the Padres. I have to wonder how many times this series that’s NOT going to work. Lean under.

I would have loved to take the Rockies at a better number. I may consider the RL in that one.

Greene is quite capable and if Smyly’s at all off, even the LHH’s of the Yankees will hit him. Like New York here just because they’re playing so poorly that the value might have shifted.

I really wanted Carassco early, but Ublado against one of his former teams and the Orioles probably have a better bullpen. Lean Orioles a bit.

I think people will line up to take Felix, and I can understand that. But, it’s a great LHP against a team that struggles with them. If there’s an edge it’s late to the Mariners bullpen.
I know Peacock can suck and De La Rosa has been a bright spot, however Boston is probably not worth -170 here and lean ‘Stros RL.

If Ventura hadn’t thrown four straight 100+ pitch games, I’d be all over the Royals. Perhaps a bit much is made of Hughes at home in the big park, and suspect the Twins money may be wrong.

I want to back the Braves here, only because they’re hitting (right now) and of course the A’s have no DH. Both pens special, and the Braves just have more power in the big park.

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FEZZIK’S FOCUS

422 Tampa Bay -2.5-120

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BONES BEST BET

ROYALS ML -105 *5* BEST BET

The Royals are the hottest team in baseball with a 19-4 record over their past 23 games. The Twins come in having dropped 6 of their past 9 overall as well as 7 of their past 10 against the Royals. We also really like Ventura for the Royals and do not buy what Phil Hughes has been selling of late.

RAYS ML -140 *2*

Hot versus not. The Rays have wins in 7 of 9 while the Yankees have dropped 5 straight. Pitching matchup is close to a wash but New York has been outplayed badly in each of their past 5 games (all losses by 2+ runs).

DODGERS ML + GIANTS ML Parlay +125 *3*

We don’t do a lot of parlays, but the Dodgers are as close to a lock as you can get. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the NL and the Dodgers are 16-3 when he takes the mound. He has a 0.81 WHIP at home this year. In his last 10 starts he has given up no earned runs 5 times and 1 earned run 3 times and has pitched at least 8 innings in 7 of 10.

The Giants have been struggling but so have the Phillies and so has Kendrick. He has a 5.57 road ERA and 1.36 road WHIP and 2-6 record. He is 1-6 in day games with a 6.24 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Hudson has been solid all year and at home. His home ERA is 3.20 with a 1.11 WHIP. He had given up 3 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.

CARDINALS ML -127 *2*

The Cards have won 3 straight vs the Padres. The Cards are 35-25 at home this year and the Padres are 23-37 on the road. Miller has been inconsistent this year but in 4 of his last 5 starts he has given up 2 earned run or less. Last time he faced the Padres he gave up 2 runs and 3 hits over 6 innings. Good value today in the Cards. They should be a -140 to -150 favorite at home today.

MARLINS -1 +100 *3*

The money line price at -145 is playable if you choose but we’ve decided to take the -1 at even money after much debate. Alvarez has been dominant all year and even more so at home. 5-2, 1.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP pitching at home is tough to top.

TIGERS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3 -105 *3*

King Felix is an absolute beast. His numbers speak for themselves and he always shows up for the big games. Hernandez has not allowed 3 runs or more in 16 straight starts dating all the way back to May 12th! Don’t be surprised to see a complete game gem here today in Detroit.

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EXECUTIVE

PRE-SEASON

200 jets

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David Banks
AUGUST 16, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo is expected to see his first action of the preseason following
his second off-season back surgery in as many years when his Dallas Cowboys
(0-1, 0-1 ATS) host the Baltimore Ravens (1-0, 1-0 ATS) at AT&T Stadium in
Arlington Saturday at 7:00 ET on NFL Network. The Cowboys were awful without
Romo as well as many other starters in a 27-7 loss to the Chargers in San
Diego in their opener, while the Ravens opened up on a victorious note beating
the San Francisco 49ers handily 23-3 at home.

While most of the starters that sat out the Dallas opener will start this
game with Romo being the most notable, the word is that they will only be in
the game for 10 to 15 snaps before the reserves get called in the allow
Coach Jason Garrett to further evaluate his depth after the second and third
stringer performed so badly against the Chargers with the exception of backup
quarterback and oft maligned Brandon Weeden, who somehow managed to complete
13-of-17 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown without an interception. The
touchdown pass went to James Hanna, who is their third string tight end and
does not figure to be on the field much once the real games begin. Do not
expect Weeden to duplicate his Week 1 success once he enters the game here vs.
a Baltimore defense that defended him well when he was a quarterback inside
the Ravens' division with the Browns. Also the Cowboys are decimated by
injuries in the secondary and had just three true cornerbacks in uniform vs. the
Chargers. And starting cornerback Morris Claiborne is already declared out
for the game while safeties Ahmad Dixon and Matt Johnson are doubtful, so
allowing another 27 points and 243 passing yards like last week would not be
at all surprising.

Another edge that the Ravens have here is that John Harbaugh is one of
those coached that likes to win during preseason, and it showed vs. the 49ers as
Baltimore outgained San Francisco by 200 total yards and finished with an
amazing 237 rushing yards on 48 carries. The quarterbacks were efficient with
Joe Flacco completing 4-of-5 passes for 52 yards and Tyrod Taylor
completing 13-of-21 for 116 yards, and just the fact that Harbaugh only used two
quarterbacks is further evidence that he takes these games rather seriously. The
real story though was the depth of the Baltimore backfield as the Ravens
has six different players finish with at least 17 rushing yards. Ray Rice
carried the ball just three times for 17 yards for a nice 5.7 YPC while primary
backup Bernard Pierce carried seven times for 29 yards (4.1 YPC). The
diversity of the Baltimore offense could give a depleted Dallas defense fits in
this contest. And don't forget the performance of the Baltimore defense, which
held the Niners to a measly 187 total yards of offense.

The Ravens are 14-6 straight up in their last 20 preseason games under
Harbaugh and they are 7-3 ATS on the road during this span.
PICK: BALTIMORE RAVENS-1

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
Time: Saturday 08/16 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 (+105) at 5Dimes

The Toronto Blue Jays had control of the second Wild Card in the AL, but when the calendar turned to August this team has hit the wall hard. Toronto is 3-10 this month, and their road trip is off to a sluggish start as they have dropped the first four. The offense has been dormant, as the Blue Jays have mustered all of 9 runs in the four game slide. Their saving grace here may be the fact that they have Mark Buehrle on the mound. He sports a 3.31 ERA on the season, and certainly has the capacity to keep the now struggling Jays' attack in the game. The Jays have played to an 18-8 mark to the UNDER in Buehrle's last 26 road starts. The White Sox have now gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six in the role of a home dog. This series has had trouble finding its way over the total as the UNDER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings. Take the UNDER in this one.

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Saturday’s NFL Week 2 preseason betting primer:

Saturday marks the busiest day of the NFL’s second week of exhibition action, with half the league taking the field. Here’s a look at betting notes for the eight games scheduled for Saturday:

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (-2.5, 43)

* The battle for the fifth and final wide receiver job in Green Bay could very well come down to whichever of the contenders performs better Saturday afternoon; Myles Whyte, Chris Harper, Jeff Janis, Kevin Dorsey and Alex Gillett are all in the hunt. The Packers are expected to have running back Eddie Lacy make his preseason debut; he appeared in his first exhibition game against the Rams a year ago and ran for 40 yards on just eight carries.

* Quarterback Sam Bradford will see his first game action in nearly 10 months Saturday, with head coach Jeff Fisher predicting that Bradford would see at least a quarter of action – and possibly more. The Rams are expected to give running back Zac Stacy more work than the four carries he saw last week – though St. Louis didn’t really need him, erupting for 150 yards on 32 carries in a 26-24 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 41.5)

* Geno Smith and New York’s first-team offense will play the entire first half against the Bengals, according to head coach Rex Ryan; Michael Vick will also see time under center, as will sixth-round pick Tajh Boyd, who will play ahead of Matt Simms. The Jets have won four of their last preseason games overall after dropping their previous five – including all four they played in 2012.

* Head coach Marvin Lewis told reporters that quarterback Andy Dalton will likely see between 15-25 snaps against the Jets; Dalton saw 22 and 23 snaps, respectively, in the second preseason game the last two seasons. Cincinnati will likely take it easy with its starters Saturday, as it begins a stretch of three games in 12 days that wraps up Aug. 28 against the visiting Indianapolis Colts.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 42.5)

* Veteran tight end Owen Daniels hasn’t practiced since Monday as he deals with nagging leg soreness, and his status for Saturday night’s game remains up in the air. A sprained ankle suffered by Asa Jackson – who had an interception in Baltimore’s exhibition opener – has left the nickel back position wide open entering Saturday, with Chykie Brown and Dominique Franks expected to vie for playing time in Jackson’s absence.

* Quarterback Tony Romo will see his first game action since undergoing back surgery in late-December; he’s expected to be eased back in after participating in only 11 of the team’s 16 scheduled practices – and avoiding practices on back-to-back days. Romo is expected to have his usual cast of characters against the Ravens, including running back DeMarco Murray, wide receiver Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 41.5)

* The Giants’ secondary will face a major test against Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, but come in with positive momentum as the starters have yet to allow a passing touchdown through their first two preseason games. Quarterback Eli Manning has yet to really air it out – his longest throw of the preseason has been for just 10 yards – but head coach Tom Coughlin says looking for a deep strike isn’t something he’ll force against the Colts.

* The Colts’ backfield will be a little more robust in the team’s second exhibition game, with safety LaRon Landry and cornerback Vontae Davis expected to play versus the Giants after being limited by groin injuries. Luck and the first-team offense is expected to see up to 25 plays against New York, with receiver T.Y. HIlton expected to suit up despite missing a pair of practices this week.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 40.5)

* After receiving rave reviews from coaches and teammates – highlighted by receiver Mike Williams’ assertion that Thursday’s practice was “the best I’ve ever seen him,” quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to see plenty of time Saturday against the Steelers. He’ll look to improve a scuffling Buffalo first-team offense that has managed just two field goals in five possessions through two exhibition games.

* The Steelers are expected to give all three of its prominent running backs playing time, though it’s anybody’s guess as to how Le’Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount and rookie Dri Archer will be used against the Bills. Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams in the preseason over the past season-plus, losing five straight exhibition games after going 19-6 over their previous 25 preseason contests.

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 37.5)

* It isn’t clear whether running back Knowshon Moreno (knee) will make his Dolphins debut against the Buccaneers, but he hasn’t been full speed yet in practice and is expected to sit out at least another week. His absence will likely mean a decent workload for expected Week 1 starter Lamar Miller, who has reportedly looked sensational in camp.

* The focus on the Tampa Bay side of the ball will be on the progress of rookie wide receiver Mike Evans, who has looked inconsistent so far in training camp and will need to earn the No. 2 receiver job opposite Vincent Jackson. Last week’s shoddy performance against the Jaguars has prompted coach Lovie Smith to shake up the offensive line, highlighted by the demotion of Jamon Meredith from the starting right guard spot.

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-3, 40.5)

* Star wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones were given Thursday off to rest ahead of Saturday’s tilt with the Texans; while White is expected to see the field, head coach Mike Smith hasn’t said whether Jones – recovering from a major foot injury – would join him. The first team offense, led by quarterback Matt Ryan, is expected to play the entire first half in Houston.

* No. 1 quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t in danger of losing his Week 1 starting job. but could use a better performance Saturday than the one he posted in Houston’s exhibition opener against the Arizona Cardinals (6-for-14, 55 yards, two interceptions.) Eyes will also be on No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, who looked solid in his debut but will need to work on his drop-back coverage versus the Texans.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 39.5)

* Starting Cardinals tight end John Carlson is expected to see action against the team that released him back in March, but he likely won’t play for long as Arizona looks to keep him fresh – and concussion-free – for the start of the regular season. Backup quarterback candidate Ryan Lindley may be playing for his spot on the roster; he’s expected to see the majority of the second half.

* Fans hoping to see running back Adrian Peterson will be disappointed yet again, as the Vikings are expected to rest him until the start of the regular season – just as they have every year since 2011. The quarterback battle between Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater will once again take center stage Saturday, with Cassel playing the opening half and Bridgewater expected to play the majority of the final two quarters.

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JIMMY BOYD

3* Chicago White Sox ML

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GUARANTEED SPORTS PICKS

Chicago Cubs vs NY Mets – Under 7.5

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UNDER Umpire Streakers


#915 UN 7 -110 NYY/TB 1.10u to win 1.00u
Danley 4ov/18un L22gms 81.8%


#910 UN 7 -110 STL/SD 1.10un to win 1.00u
BWelke ov/14un L22gms 63.6%


#929 UN 6.5 +105 OAK/ATL 1.00u to win 1.05u
Marquez 3ov/9un L12gms 75.0%

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KEVIN FRANCIS

SPECIAL EDITION K-BOMB PERFECT PLAY NFLX WINNER
417 NY Jets +3 7:00 EST

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GOODFELLA

Saturday Night NFLX 1st Half Total Play

#415/#416 BALTIMORE vs DALLAS - OVER 21.5 (@BOL)

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NYY + 1.5 [B]




Tony the sports betting "Champ"

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LineCatchers


One of the most contrasting pitchers in all of baseball gets the nod for the Orioles as Ubaldo Jiminez takes the mound against the Indians tonight. Note the word ‘Tonight’, the splits between Jiminez’ Day and Night starts are dissimilar to say the very least.


He is 4-8 on the season with a 4.51 ERA in 19 starts so far in 2014. In 6 ‘Day’ starts this year, Jiminez is 1-5 with a staggering 9.22 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. Compare that to his 13 ‘Night’ starts, where he has gone 3-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 78 IP. Opponents have hit just .216 off Jiminez in those games under the lights.


The Indians will give the ball to Carlos Carrasco who will be making his sixth start of the season and is coming off a 5 IP shutout of the Yankees. As a starter in this season, Carrasco has struggled going 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Prior to his last outing, Carrasco had given up at least 4 ER in 4 starts. I really do foresee this Oriole offense to get on base against Carrasco who has been guilty of struggling with his command when pitching from the stretch.


Baltimore have gone 3-0 in Jimenez’ last 3 starts and they haven’t lost consecutive games since the 28/29th June 2014. The Orioles have hit .290 in their last 7 games whilst averaging over 6 runs per game in that span. I believe the value is on the road team tonight as a slight underdog with a better pitcher on the mound and an offense that has been very productive over the past few weeks.


Baltimore Orioles + 114