8-20-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

2014-08-23 (3 days)

MLB Premium Picks

MLB	Aug 20 ,2014	2:10p	[925] Toronto Blue Jays [926] Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers -117 at Pinnacle
3* MLB Afternoon No Doubt Rout on Brewers - The red-hot Brewers are showing excellent value as a small home favorite against the slumping Blue Jays. Milwaukee enters having won 5 straight, while Toronto has lost 6 of their last 7. Hard to not like the Brewers with the way youngster Jimmy Nelson has been throwing of late. Nelson has a 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP over his last 3 starts and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts. If it wasn't for one bad start against the Cardinals, where he allowed 8 runs in 4 1/3 innings, Nelson would have a much stronger ERA than the 3.86 that he has coming into this game. Toronto will counter with R.A. Dickey, who is a mere 3-9 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.390 WHIP over 13 road starts and comes in struggling with a 4.26 ERA and 1.526 WHIP over his last 3 outings. The Blue Jays are just 1-6 in Dickey's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 1-8 in his last 9 starts with a total set between 7-8.5 runs and 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a team loss. Adding to this is the fact that the Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 against a right-handed starter and 9-2 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a Sizzling 88% (35-5) system in favor of the Brewers. Take Milwaukee!

MLB	Aug 20 ,2014	8:10p	[917] Cleveland Indians [918] Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Indians -109 at Pinnacle
4* AL Central Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Indians - The Indians are showing exceptional value here as a small road favorite against the Twins. Cleveland took the opener in impressive fashion, rallying from a 5-run 1st inning deficit to win 7-5. That's the kind of loss that can completely demoralize and a big reason why I'm backing the Indians in this one. Not only is Cleveland getting the Twins in a great spot, but I think the Indians have a big advantage on the mound with rookie T.J. House going up against the struggling veteran Ricky Nolasco. House comes in with a respectable 3.37 ERA over his last 3 starts and has not allowed a single opponent to score more than 3 runs in each of his last 7 consecutive outings. Nolasco on the other hand has continued to be major disappointment. He was rocked in his return from the DL, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings and now has a awful 5.99 ERA and 1.605 WHIP over 19 starts in 2014. There's a strong system in play on the Indians. Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts are a strong 69-25 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Indians. Take Cleveland!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

5000* Play Miami -150 over Texas (MLB GAME OF YEAR)

Wednesday 12:40 PM EST

Texas has lost 32 of the last 45 games when playing as an underdog of +100 to +150 and they have lost 32 of the last 43 games when playing in the 2^nd half of the season.Texas has lost 21 of the last 32 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 37 of the last 55 games after having lost five or six of the last seven games.

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50* Play Washington -190 over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -180 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL

• Play Pittsburgh -120 over Atlanta----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

Gerrit Cole has won 16 of the last 24 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 14 of the last 21 night games. Garrit Cole has won 20 of the last 31 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 12 of the last 19 home games.

• Play Kansas City -120 over Colorado----Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Danny Duffy has won 12 of the last 13 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 6 consecutive games when pitching in the month of August. Danny Duffy has won 3 of the last 4 games when pitching on a Wednesday and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 3.71.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Pittsburgh -120 over Atlanta (MLB TOP PLAY)

Pittsburgh is 55-44 vs. left-handed starting pitchers
Pittsburgh is 51-38 vs. NL East Division Opponents
Pittsburgh 97-57 at home when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher



10* Play Kansas City -120 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)

Kansas City is 38-19 when playing as a road favorite of -110 or higher
Kansas City is 47-29 when playing in the month of August
Kansas City is 39-24 after having won six or seven of the last eight games


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5* Play Los Angeles Angels -140 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Baltimore -140 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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Kevin's Pick(s):
1-2 with my three system picks last night, cashing in on the Astros +150, but our other underdog play on the Twins was a loser as they gave up 7 unanswered runs after going up 5-0 in the 1st inning to lose 7-5. We also had the Under 7 runs in a 6-2 ball game. Two system picks for tonight...
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox - ORIOLES TO WIN (-147)
Listed Pitchers: Chen vs Noesi
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.36 units)
2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals - REDS TO WIN (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Cueto vs Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)


Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - UNDER 7 RUNS (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Cueto vs. Lynn
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
Crazy game yesterday, as most Tigers' games end up being in the later innings. Detroit ultimately won in extra innings with them coming through for a few runs. It was enough of a lead to help Joe Nathan secure the win, while still allowing another run this season.
Tonight I turn to St. Louis where two of the more premier pitchers duel it out. However, both of these offenses have left a lot to be desired. So what we have is a game where both pitchers should shine, rightfully so. Lance Lynn has been great after a so-so start to the season. 8 out of his last 10 starts he held teams to less than 3 runs, including six games where it was just a run or less. Lynn also prefers pitching in St. Louis, where his ERA dips to 2.53 compared to 3.45 on the road. One interesting thing is that almost all of his bad starts came in day starts, his ERA is 5.56 in the afternoon while it is 2.14 at night. Johnny Cueto is consistent as they come in the majors. It is nearly a guarantee that this guy isn't going to get smashed. In 26 starts this season that only happened on one occasion, 6 runs allowed way back May 20th. Take for instance his overall ERA of 2.06, and his ERA in his last three starts, 2.16. Quite similar, which certainly indicates how consistent he really is. I must add that in his last start against the Rockies he gave up only 2 runs in Colorado, a place that is home to the highest ERA's in MLB. I expect 3 runs max from Cueto in this game. Lynn should also be able to handle a Reds' lineup that is near the tail end of the league in scoring. The percentages tell us that this game should end up going UNDER the total of 7 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +180 over OAKLAND

Oakland GM Billy Beane went all-in when he included top prospect Addison Russell in the trade for Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija has done well in his first exposure to the AL, turning in a 3-2 record with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts. It’s not surprising to see Samardzija emerge as an ace starter. While his strikeout rate is down a bit, his swing and miss rate remains strong so a rebound to previous levels is likely. Samardzija’s control is much improved with just seven walks in 56 IP. His high ERA last year was partly due to hr/f; it’s normalized in 2014. He also continues his transformation into a groundball pitcher. There is no question that Samardzija and the A’s have a very good chance of winning here but anytime we can take back a tag like this one with Zack Wheeler throwing, we’ll bite almost every time.

Wheeler faces an Oakland team that is batting a measly .233 since they traded offense for pitching. Wheeler has shown flashes this season of becoming an ace. He posted a outstanding skills in April and in July. Spotty control has held him back, as he has averaged 4BB/9 in three separate months. However, his combination of strikeouts 8 K’s/9 all season and groundballs (54%+ GB% in three months), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor. Over his last six starts covering 39 innings, Wheeler has struck out 40 batters and posted a 2.33 ERA. His last loss as a starter came way back on June 25 and since then the Mets have won six of his nine starts. Now he’s taking back a huge price, which is value at its best.


L.A. Angels -1½ +126 over BOSTON

The Red Sox had their chances last night to take a game in this series after Jered Weaver walked four batters, threw a wild pitch, struck out one and allowed 7 hits in 5.1 innings. Against that putrid outing, Boston scored three times and lost 4-3. They will not get the same opportunities here against Garrett Richards. Richards has added more strikeouts and fastball velocity than any other starter from 2013 to 2014 YTD. His current 2.99 xERA provides nearly full support to his 2.53 ERA and his skills have been some of the game's best over the last month: 9.9 K’s/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 57% groundball rate. Richards almost always goes 7 innings and the Angels bullpen has been lights out recently. He’ll now face a Rex Sox team that is batting .229 over the past 15 games, which is the second lowest in the Al over that stretch.

Clay Buchholz has turned in two consecutive gems, including one against the Angels in Los Angeles on August 9. However, it took 110 and 120 pitches to get through those last two outings and there are several other reasons to be pessimistic for his rematch here. Buchholz has been awful at Fenway with a 7.00 ERA and 1.70 WHIP and the Angels have an outstanding .755 road OPS that is easily the best in the majors. Buchholz also has a BAA of .294 and an overall WHIP of 1.55. The Red Sox have lost his last five starts by scores of 6-4, 14-1, 8-7, 4-3, and 5-3. Two of those losses came against the struggling Blue Jays and one came against the struggling Yanks. Buchholz has walked 17 batters over his past 31 innings and remains a huge blow-up risk every time he takes the mound.


Atlanta +105 over PITTSBURGH

Hot versus cold. The Pirates have dropped the first two games of this series and have now dropped seven in a row. As the losses pile up in succession, it becomes more difficult to win each day. After getting smoked last night and losing to Aaron Harang, things sure don’t get easier against Alex Wood. Wood quietly has become one of the NL's most effective starters this season. He temporarily lost his rotation spot in early May, which has helped to keep him under the radar. Wood has posted top-tier stats (2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and skills: 8.9 K’s/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. He has been even better during the past month: 10.6 K’s/9, 2.7 BB/9, 47% groundball rate. With outstanding command against both LH and RH bats and two impactful off-speed pitches (14% swing and miss rate on knuckle-curve and 14% swing and miss rate on changeup), Wood remains a great option as a dog pitching for an offense that has exploded.

Atlanta has reeled off five straight and has scored 33 times over that span in two pitchers parks. They’ll get a crack at Gerit Cole, who comes off the DL to make his first start since July 4. The Pirates will be cautious with Cole. In his last start he was throwing a one-hitter in Philadelphia after five frames and was removed after throwing 80 pitches because of right lat soreness. That was just his second start back from the DL after he was placed on it because of shoulder fatigue. One has to figure that Cole will be on a strict pitch count of 80-90 pitches. These types of injuries for a 23-year-old are worrisome because now the concern becomes the possibility that he’s made of glass. When healthy, Cole has produced strikeouts and groundballs at an intriguing rate but he’ll be a much better option when he’s not on a pitch count and when he’s not favored. Of course the Braves can win here and probably have a better chance of doing so than the Buccos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT LOCK


Phillies -120

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Jeff Clement

Texas Rangers +160 Underdog of the Day

10* Tampa Bay -120
8* New York Yankees -192

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Ray Dunavant

Toronto ML +112

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Diamond Dog Sports

#927: Mets: +165 (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Wheeler/Samardz

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3g sports

5* BEST BET STL CARDS
4* Twins

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- We’ve got several season-changing streaks happening in baseball right now, with some teams positioning themselves well for the final five weeks of the season while others appear to be fading away. There is plenty of time for a reversal in fortune, but this is the part of the season when a manager wants his club to prove its worth.

Washington manager Matt Williams was apparently the missing ingredient to get the most out of an under-performing Nationals squad. The first-year manager currently has the team riding an eight-game winning streak that has catapulted them to the best record (71-53) in the NL. They’re a -200 favorite behind Tanner Roark tonight against Arizona, a team they have now beaten in 12 of the last 16 meetings. A win tonight would mark the Nats’ longest winning streak since a franchise record-tying 10 straight in 2005.

The Braves looked as though they were finished during a stretch that began on July 29 where they lost 12 of 15, but they’ve since righted the ship and have won five straight. Atlanta is now tied with San Francisco for the final wild-card position in the NL. Their resurgence is simple baseball: ‘just hit the ball where they ain’t.’ During their five-game win streak, they’ve hit 10 homers and scored 33 runs. Tonight, they go for their first sweep at Pittsburgh since 2001.

The Brewers are also riding a five-game win streak and have averaged 5.6 runs a game while allowing only two runs a game over that stretch. They’re 11-6 in the month of August, which should provide a huge boost in confidence as they head towards September. Over the last two weeks – when they’ve taken five of six from the Dodgers, beating Zack Greinke twice and Clayton Kersahw once – I’ve become a reluctant believer. Jimmy Nelson is a -120 favorite tonight over the Blue Jays and R.A. Dickey in the final of a two-game series. The Blue Jays have lost six of their last seven.

Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, St. Louis and the Cubs are all riding three-game win streaks.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, Boston, Minnesota, Cincinnati and the Mets are on losing streaks of three games or more and have been punching bags for most of the year. Pittsburgh has lost seven straight, but its woes are more recent.

Pittsburgh hasn’t lost eight straight since a 10-game meltdown in 2011, a season when everyone predicted the upstart Bucs would fade. Before their current series with Atlanta started, they had the best home record in the NL, but that distinction now belongs to Washington. Having dropped the first two games to the Braves, the Pirates are on the verge of being swept at home for the first time since 2012.

Andrew McCutchen’s return to the lineup (0-for-4) couldn’t halt the building tidal wave last night, and tonight they look for another fresh-off-the-DL player, Gerrit Cole, to stop the bleeding. Cole is -115 favorite against Alex Wood, and the recommendation is either to bet the Braves or make no play at all. Until the Pirates shake the funk, they’re unbettable.

Today’s plays

The game that looks the most attractive tonight has Garrett Richards (13-4, 2.53 ERA) as a -135 favorite at Fenway Park against Clay Buchholz (5-7, 5.79). The Angels have won six of their last seven, and Richards has been terrific in three August starts (2-0, 1.19 ERA) after being roughed up in two late-July starts. He got a no-decision against the Red Sox in Anaheim 11 days ago in a 5-4 Angels win, a game started by Buchholz. It was the Angels' only win in the three-game set.

The Red Sox are 6-6 all-time against the Angels behind Buchholz, with 10 of the 12 games going OVER the total, including the Aug. 9 meeting at Anaheim. However, the Angels are currently riding a streak of six straight UNDERs.

Perhaps the best thing about the Angels this season – and the major differences from their underachieving past two seasons – has been their ability to handle their business against lesser teams. When playing teams with a losing record, they are 40-15, netting +20 units of profit for bettors.

Wednesday selections:

Angels (Richards) -135 at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Reds/Cardinals UNDER 7 (-115), 7:15 p.m. ET

Orioles (Chen) -140 at White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

SELECTION
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -105
(Duffy/De La Rosa)

The Royals are a better baseball team with the better starting pitcher and a much better bullpen. I get the Rockies are built for this ballpark, but they are not good against left handed pitching and these Royals have been playing very well as of late. Take Kansas City.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nationals are 14-0 since August 11, 2013 as a favorite after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1400.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Rick Porcello starts the Tigers are 12-0 since June 01, 2011 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1205.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Rangers are 0-20 (+$2,000) since 2005 as a 140-plus dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least five walks and at least one home run, as long as they were not a 170-plus dogs.

CHOICE TREND:

The Angels are 12-0 since April 05, 2014 as a favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1200.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When Jorge De La Rosa starts the Rockies are 10-0 since August 13, 2010 at home within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $1024.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take DETROIT +110 to avoid the sting of the rays!

Take Tampa and Detroit to stay UNDER 7.5!

Take the ANGELS -130 to feel heavenly today!

Take COLORADO +110 to rock the royals tonight!