8-22-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDE VEGAS / CORY KLUGE

4 MLB Sharp Plays

Cinncy -113

Philly +155

SanFran +135

Colorado +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Orioles cashing for bettors in Gausman's road starts

The Baltimore Orioles are 5-1 in starting pitcher Kevin Gausman's previous six starts away from Oriole Park.

That's the spot he'll be in as the O's visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field as +100 road dogs Friday afternoon.

Orioles' wins at Tampa Bay (+136), Boston (+119), Oakland (+136), Seattle (+174), Washington (+127) and Cleveland (+116) have supplied bettors with plenty value in the right-hander's road starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Friday, August 22

Over tickets cash in first day of playoffs

The WNBA postseason began with the Over posting a perfect 2-0 record Thursday evening.

In the East, the Indiana Fever defeated the Washington Mystics 78-73 to eclipse the closing total of 141 by 10 points. Meanwhile in the West, the closing total of 155.5 didn't stand a chance as the Minnesota Lynx and San Antonio Stars combined for 172 points with the Lynx winning 88-84.

The other semifinals begin Friday as the Chicago Sky visit the Atlanta Dream with a total of 155, while the Phoenix Mercury host the Los Angeles Sparks with a total of 157.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thunderstorms in the forecast for these parks Friday
Andrew Avery

Thunderstorms could be on tap at a few stadiums which could impact your Major League Baseball bets Friday.

According to Daily Baseball Data, there is a 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms hitting Nationals Park in Washington as the Nationals host the San Francisco Giants.

There looks to be a good chance of rain leading up to gametime in Phiadelphia. Forecasts predict a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms in the hours prior to the start time, but that should subside shortly thereafter as the Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals.

Forecasts are also calling for a 60 percent possibility of thunderstorms in Denver as the Rockies host the Miami Marlins.

Finally, Cincinnati could be hit some rain as well as forecasts are calling for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms by the start of the game between the Reds and the visiting Atlanta Braves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Flags continue to fly in Week 3 opener
By ANDREW AVERY

Referees continued to toss flags at a fast and furious pace in the Thursday night matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. There were 27 more penalties accepted in the game, which is still greater than the 23.7 penalties per game rate that games have seen through the first two weeks of the preseason.

As we featured yesterday, the incredible amount of penalty flags littering fields league-wide forced oddsmakers to adapt when setting totals for Week 3 of the preseason schedule. For the first time in recent memory, all the NFL action this week is working off a total that is 40.0 or higher.

The Steelers-Eagles opened with a total of 50, but closed at most shops at 48.5. Regardless the number, the two teams combined for 52 points, aided by the 202 yards that came from the 27 penalties.

Friday sees five games on the board, including the Jaguars at Lions (44.5), Panthers at Patriots (45.5), Giants at Jets (42.5), Raiders at Packers (43.5) and Bears at Seahawks (45).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily wager with Weekend Warrior - 8.22.14 August 22, 2014 6:49 AM by Mark Mayer

NFL Football Preseason Week 3

262 Seattle Seahawks -7½: First game at home for Seahawks since NFC championship. Look for a heavy dose of the 12th Man against Chicago. Seattle covers at home whether it counts or not.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLPredictions

Kevin
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks – SEAHAWKS -7 (-105)


Kyle's pick
Jaguars vs. Lions Pick
PICK = OVER 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

Houston @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -1½ +114 over Houston

Brad Peacock has been just plain awful over the past month, with a 10.50 ERA in his past four starts. A 21% hr/f rate indicates some bad luck but he's contributed plenty to his own undoing with a BB/K split of 12/14 over his last 18 innings covering four starts. That high hr/f is also the result of a high fly-ball rate and that’s what you often get with fly-ball pitchers. The Indians .731 home OPS ranks 4th in the AL and it shows that they have the firepower to ruffle Peacock's feathers in this outing. We also love the fact that the Astros are coming off a four-game set in New York and while playing the Yankees isn’t what it used to be, playing in New York is still exciting, especially for young teams like the Astros.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco has made just six starts this season. Carrasco opened the season in the rotation with disastrous results, allowing 17 runs in 22 innings. He did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his first four starts. A subsequent demotion to the pen straightened him out, where in 26 relief appearances covering 43 innings, Carrasco thrived with 39 K’s, 9 BB and a 2.30 ERA. In two starts since being reinserted into the rotation, Carrasco surrendered five hits and zero runs in 12 innings combined against the Yanks and Baltimore. He didn’t walk a single batter while striking out nine. He also posted an elite 55% groundball rate, an elite 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 14% line-drive rate. Carrasco has nasty stuff and now his confidence at this level has never been higher. Everything points to an easy victory by the Tribe and that’s how we’ll play it.

Our Pick:
CLEVELAND -1½ +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers

N.Y. Mets @ LOS ANGELES
N.Y. Mets +120 over LOS ANGELES

Diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff last season, Jonathan Niese took six weeks off to rest/rehab and then he returned in the second half to put together a career-best run. Niese could be on the same path this year, as he returned from the DL in late July and he’s once again showing signs of getting stronger. Niese has struck out 12 batters over his last two starts, covering 13 innings. Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt and consistent history presents potential reward and this year his groundball rate is one of the best in the business at 55%. He’ll now face a Dodgers team that struggles against LHP, with their .683 OPS 12th in the NL.

Forget Niese for a second because this one is more about fading Dan Haren again. We faded him last weekend against Milwaukee and he didn’t make it past three innings after allowing six hits and five runs. It took Haren 74 pitches to get nine outs and he also walked three batters. Had Hyun-Jin Ryu not got injured, Haren would not be in the rotation. The Dodgers were so concerned about his ineffectiveness that they went out and traded for Kevin Correia, a move the Twinkies are still celebrating over. Haren’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 27%/27%/46% is enough to scare away even the biggest optimists. His swing and miss rate has been in decline for three straight years and it’s not getting any better. He’s been tagged for 10 jacks at Dodger Stadium in just 63 frames and as the innings pile up that number is in more danger. Dan Haren has one foot in the gutter and should the Dodger make the playoffs, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. The Dodgers are praying he gives them five innings of decent service tonight but even they know that’s a stretch. Haren has lost it and while anything is possible in one game, he’s a huge risk as the chalk.

Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

-Show League-NFLNHLMLBNBANCAAFNCAABSoccerCFLMMA

Baseball Season 2014

Yesterday	2	0	0.00	+4.94
Last 30 Days	40	33	0.00	+31.29
Season to Date	180	195	0.00	+26.12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Montreal @ WINNIPEG
Montreal +7½ -115 /+255 over WINNIPEG

We’re going to split this up and play a half unit on the Alouettes to win outright and 2.5 units on them to cover the number. As bad as the Als have been with just one win in seven games, they’re getting closer and one can just sense that they’re on the verge of a big game and a big win. That probably should’ve happened last week in Saskatchewan when they gave the Riders a big scare as 13-point dogs. That was the game Alex Brink took over from Troy Smith and went 19 for 31 for 187 yards in poor conditions. At least Brink moved the chains and he now has that full game under his belt. Montreal’s defense looks in fine shape and they still have one of the best offensive weapons in the league in Brandon Whitaker. Whitaker figures to get a ton of work against the Bombers soft defense. Overall, the Als have played consecutive games against B.C., Toronto, Edmonton and Saskatchewan and they take a step down here when facing a team that is very beatable right now. In fact, with Troy Smith at QB, Montreal scored 33 points against the Bombers back on July 11 but Winnipeg pulled a rabbit out of its hat and scored in the final seconds to win it, 34-33. That was probably the game we should have realized that Winnipeg could be a team in trouble.

The Bombers were crushed in Toronto last game while being outgained by almost 200 yards and surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense. Over their past two games, Winnipeg has been outgained on the ground by a disturbing 250 yards. Drew Willy is not getting better each week. In fact, he’s getting worse. Willy is under constant pressure and as a result, he’s throwing the rock up for grabs. Winnipeg’s overall defense, pass protection and offense are all headed in the wrong direction, which is a poor recipe for spotting points. Winnipeg is just 2-2 at home and in Week 2 they were just a 4-point favorite over Ottawa. In Week 4 at Invesco Field, the Bombers were a 2-point choice over Edmonton and were buried by 23 points. Incredibly, the last time that Winnipeg was favored by 7 points or more was way back in October of 2011 when they were an 8-point favorite over the Argonauts and lost outright, 27-22. In 18 games last season, the Bombers were never favored. Winnipeg is not a team to be spotting significant points with. Montreal’s stock is still low after posting a 1-6 record to this point and because of its inability to score points. However, The Als are actually improving while the Bombers are regressing badly but this number does not reflect that. We’re calling the upset.

Our Pick
Montreal +7½ -115 (Risking 2.8 units - To Win: 2.43)

CFL 2014
CC
CFL 201FL 2014

Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	5	7	0.00	-4.59
Season to Date	14	12	0.00	+3.79

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

20* Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks & Bacon (aka Chalk) for August 22, 2014

Washington Nationals -145

While we respect Tim Hudson for a long and distinguished Major League career, Doug Fister has been absolutely PHENOMENAL for the Nationals as they continue to rack up Ws. How phenomenal? ZERO is the key word. Fister has not allowed an earned run the last three times out, and we don't even need the STINKIN' calculator to tell us that it's a 0.00 ERA! He has won six of his last seven decisions, and if Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright or Johnny Cueto should falter down the stretch, Fister might say hello to CY! Looking over at Hudson, he has NOT won a game since July 19, and has managed ONLY ONE win in his last 11 outings. And if you're interested in his most recent work, it AIN'T pretty (21 hits, 10 earned runs, 15 innings for a 6.00 ERA). Gonna drop half a Benjamin on Washington.

And for all my baseball fanatics, we're leaning on the Yankees this evening.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NorthCoast 3* Lions -3

comp Play Over Raiders/Packers 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

NFLX 1500* 3-0
1000* 3-0

1000* Patriots OVER 45

100* Chicago Bears +7
100* Dodgers -140
50* Orioles -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily wager with Weekend Warrior - 8.22.14 August 22, 2014 6:49 AM by Mark Mayer

NFL Football Preseason Week 3

262 Seattle Seahawks -7½: Second game at home for Seahawks since NFC championship. Look for a heavy dose of the 12th Man against Chicago. Seattle covers at home whether it counts or not.