8-23-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#273 MINNESOTA @ #274 KANSAS CITY
Line: Chiefs -3.5, Total: 45

It's dress rehearsal time in the Midwest as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare for their all-important third preseason contest (8:00 PM EST) on Saturday against Mike Zimmer's Minnesota Vikings. The Chiefs return home after a road contest in Carolina last week where the club fell 28-16 to the Panthers. Despite the loss, the Chiefs defense opened the game with three consecutive three-and-outs and sacked Panthers quarterback Cam Newton twice.

Kansas City rookie signal caller Aaron Murray threw his first career NFL touchdown with a 43-yard toss to Travis Kelce, while embattled receiver Dwayne Bowe caught five passes for 62 yards on the night. Bowe was suspended by the National Football League for the season opener last week after violating the league's substance-abuse policy, a penalty stemming from an arrest back in November of last year for speeding and marijuana possession.

The Vikings' preseason has been all about finding a starting signal caller and both veteran Matt Cassel and rookie Teddy Bridgewater have performed well. Another solid performance in Kansas City will likely sew up the job for Cassel but "Two-Minute Teddy" was born against Arizona last week. Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes, including one with 18 seconds remaining which lifted Minnesota to an exciting 30-28 preseason victory over Arizona in Minneapolis.

Cassel started under center and completed 12-of-16 passes for 153 yards and a touchdown, while the rookie first-round draft pick finished 16-for-20 for 177 and two scores in relief. The Cardinals were leading 28-24 with 1:07 left when Bridgewater and the Vikings offense got the ball back on their own 17-yard line. Bridgewater found Rodney Smith for short gains of 10 and six yards and following a 12-yard completion to Jarius Wright, went back to Smith for 37 yards down the left sideline to the Arizona 18.

Four plays later, Bridgewater hooked up with Smith for a 2-yard, go-ahead score. Joe Banyard carried six times for 64 yards for Minnesota, while tight end Kyle Rudolph caught four passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. The biggest moment in Chiefs and perhaps all of Kansas City sports history came on Jan. 11, 1970 when the Chiefs defeated the Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV. In the preseason series Minnesota holds a slim 8-7 advantage.

•KEY STATS:KANSAS CITY is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.4, OPPONENT 19.1.

--KANSAS CITY is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1993.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 16.0, OPPONENT 19.5.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 15 times, while the favorite covered the spread 10 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 10 times. 3 games went under the total, while 1 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 32 times, while the underdog covered first half line 30 times. *No EDGE. 2 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games in the preseason.
(52-17 since 1993.) (75.4%, +33.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-38)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 18.9, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = -0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (34.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
________________________________________________

#275 ST LOUIS @ #276 CLEVELAND
Line: Browns -2.5, Total: 43

With "the decision" finally made, the Cleveland Browns will get back to work in preparation for Week #1 of the NFL season when they host the St. Louis Rams in preseason action. Brian Hoyer was named the Browns' starting quarterback to begin the season on Wednesday, winning the job over high-profile rookie Johnny Manziel. "We've maintained all along that if it was close, I would prefer to go with the more experienced player," said first-year coach Mike Pettine. "Brian has done a great job in the meeting rooms and with his teammates on the practice field and in the locker room."

Hoyer started each of the Browns' first two preseason games. He completed 6- of-14 passes for 92 yards in the opener against Detroit and was just 2-of-6 for 16 yards this past Monday in a 24-23 setback against Washington. Manziel, selected with the 22nd overall pick in May's draft, threw for 63 yards on 7-of-11 passing in the first preseason game against the Lions. He was 7-of-16 for 65 yards with a touchdown on Monday, but was also sacked three times. "It's obviously disappointing," said Manziel after practice Wednesday. "I didn't play terrible (in the first two preseason games), but I made strides."

If I would have done better in the last two weeks, it would have been different outcome. I'm going to continue to give it my all every day." The 21-year-old Manziel hasn't shown much maturity and his latest escapade resulted in a $12,000 fine for giving the Washington bench the middle finger during Monday's preseason game. "I get words exchanged throughout the entirety of the game, every game, week after week, and I should've been smarter," Manziel said. "It was a 'Monday Night Football' game and cameras were probably solid on me, and I just need to be smarter about that.... It's there, and it's present every game, and I just need to let it slide off my back and go to the next play."

The Rams are still looking for their first exhibition victory after falling to Green Bay last week, 21-7. Sam Bradford, playing for the first time since tearing his ACL last October, completed 9-of-12 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, including a 41-yard strike to Brian Quick. Rookie defensive end Michael Sam, who was the first openly-gay player drafted in the NFL, didn't see any action until the second half for St. Louis but did finish with two tackles and a sack. Worse than the loss for the Rams, however, was the fact that the team lost running back Isaiah Pead, who will miss the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee while running back a kickoff in the first quarter.

This contest will be the 29th preseason meeting between the Rams and Browns with St. Louis holding a slim 14-13-1 advantage in the series.

•KEY STATS: ST LOUIS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total against AFC North division opponents since 1993.
The average score was ST LOUIS 12.9, OPPONENT 10.4.

--CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 13.9, OPPONENT 11.9.

--CLEVELAND is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1993.
The average score was CLEVELAND 13.3, OPPONENT 11.0.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 19 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 4 games went under the total, while 3 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 42 times, while the favorite covered first half line 28 times. *No EDGE. 7 games went over first half total, while 6 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (ST LOUIS) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(106-45 since 1993.) (70.2%, +56.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.5, Opponent 10.6 (Total first half points scored = 22.1)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (40-21).
_________________________________________________

#277 HOUSTON @ #278 DENVER
Line: Broncos -7, Total: 46

The Houston Texans and reigning American Football Conference champion Denver Broncos will cap off a week of joint-practice sessions by squaring off at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Week #3 of preseason action. The two teams engaged in practice sessions at the Broncos' facility on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday while kickoff is (9:00 PM EST) on Saturday evening.

Joint sessions with the Atlanta Falcons last week paid dividends for the Texans, who bounced back from a rough preseason-opening loss at Arizona with a 32-7 win against Matt Ryan and Co. last Saturday at NRG Stadium. Ryan Fitzpatrick went 9-of-12 passing for 97 yards and a touchdown pass while Jonathan Grimes led Houston's rushers with 42 yards off nine carries. The Texans scored touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams for the first time ever in a preseason game and tallied the franchise's highest preseason point total in six years.

Denver, meanwhile, is coming off an equally impressive win last Sunday at San Francisco. The defending AFC kingpins spoiled the 49ers debut at Levi's Stadium with a 34-0 thumping. Reigning MVP Peyton Manning headlined an impressive performance from Denver's signal callers as he completed 12-of-14 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. The five-time MVP is now 22-of-27 for 180 yards in two preseason games.

Manning's backup, Brock Osweiler, was also superlative, finishing 10-of-13 for 105 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown pass to rookie receiver Cody Latimer, Denver's second-round draft pick. Third-stringer Zac Dysert finished 8-for-11 for 63 yards with a 16-yard touchdown pass to Cameron Morrah in the fourth quarter.

The Texans have played the Broncos more times in the preseason and regular season than any other non-division team, squaring off 10 times since 2003.

•KEY STATS: DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 21.4, OPPONENT 21.1.

--DENVER is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after allowing 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1993.
The average score was DENVER 18.2, OPPONENT 15.6.

--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 10 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 3 times. 1 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 15 times, while the underdog covered first half line 13 times. *No EDGE. 1 games went under first half total, while 0 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - in conference games, after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after allowing 14 points or less last game.
(34-8 since 1993.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-17)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.4
The average score in these games was: Team 22.7, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (36.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLX

Dress-Rehearsal
The third full week of NFL preseason football continues Thursday with one on tap followed by five on Friday with ten going Saturday through Sunday. Preseason results don’t count for anything in the end, but any NFL head coach would be concerned if his team went winless during the preseason.

That said, the six winless teams at this juncture should play with a lot more urgency during dress-rehearsal week. NFLx sports bettors thinking of siding with these winless teams in WK-3 do so at some risk as they're a vig losing 17-17 ATS the past five years split between 10-12 ATS wearing a home jersey, 7-5 ATS on the road.

NFLx sports bettors thinking of siding with the undefeated need to be cautious with home teams as they're 2-7 ATS while roadies are a profitable 14-8 ATS.

In looking at how squads have done overall in what is the closest thing to a regular season game teams play in August. The Saints (7-0), Seahawks (10-2-1), 49ers (6-1), Eagles (7-2) have been some of the best bets recently while Patriots (0-6), Chiefs (2-9-1), Dolphins (2-7-1) have some of the worst stretches vs the betting line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League

Cardinals-Phillies
Miller is 0-1, 5.00 in his last three starts.
Buchanon is 2-4, 3.89 in his last six starts.

Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
Phillies won three of their last four games.

Last six Cardinal games went over the total.

Giants-Nationals
Lincecum is 1-3, 7.67 in his last six starts.
Zimmerman is 2-0, 2.41 in his last five starts.

Giants won five of their last six games.
Nationals won 11 of their last 12 games.

Over is 8-2-2 in last twelve Washington home games.

Braves-Reds
Santana is 6-0, 3.18 in his last seven starts.
Leake is 0-2, 5.21 in his last three starts.

Braves won seven of their last eight games.
Reds lost seven in row, 10 of last 11 games.

Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cincinnati games

Pirates-Brewers
Volquez is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.
Peralta is 6-1, 1.99 in his last seven starts.

Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
Brewers won five of their last seven games.

Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Pittsburgh games.

Marlins-Rockies
Koehler is 3-2, 3.79 in his last six starts.
Lyles is 1-1, 6.49 in his last seven starts.

Marlins won nine of their last thirteen games.
Colorado won three of its last four games.

Six of last eight Colorado games went over total.

Padres-Diamondbacks
Cashner was 0-1, 2.08 in his last four starts before going on DL.
Arizona is 0-8 when Nuno starts (0-3, 4.11).

Padres lost four of their last five games.
Arizona lost six of its last seven games.

Last three games for both San Diego/Arizona stayed under.

Mets-Dodgers
deGrom was 5-0, 1.55 in his last six starts before going on DL.
Greinke is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.

Mets lost seven of their last ten games.
Dodgers won three of their last four games.

Over is 7-1-1 in Mets' last nine road games.


American League

Astros-Indians
McHugh is 3-0, 1.42 in his last four starts.
Salazar is 0-2, 7.00 in his last couple starts.

Astros won four of their last five games.
Cleveland won seven of its last eleven games, but lost last two.

10 of last 11 Cleveland games stayed under total.

White Sox-Bronx
Carroll is 1-2, 6.91 in his last five starts.
Kuroda is 1-2, 3.91 in his last four starts.

White Sox lost five of their last six games.
Bronx lost seven of its last eleven games, but won last two.

Five of last six Chicago road games stayed under.

Rays-Blue Jays
Hellickson is 1-1, 2.00 in his last three starts.
Buehrle is 0-1, 8.53 in his last three starts.

Rays lost four of their last six games.
Toronto lost seven of its last nine games.

Under is 9-2-2 in last thirteen Tampa Bay games.

Mariners-Red Sox
Young is 4-0, 2.45 in his last five starts.
Workman is 0-6, 6.62 in his last six starts.

Mariners won 12 of their last 16 games.
Boston lost its last six games, scoring 12 runs.

Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Workman starts.

Royals-Rangers
Guthrie is 4-1, 4.73 in his last five starts.
Rangers won last three Tepesch starts (1-0, 1.83).

Royals won 18 of their last 22 games.
Texas lost six of its last eight games.

Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Royal games.

Tigers-Twins
Farmer allowed four runs in five IP in his first MLB start. Verlander is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
May is 0-2, 9.45 in two MLB starts. Pino is 0-3, 6.06 in his last five starts.

Detroit lost 12 of its last 16 road games.
Minnesota lost four of its last six games.

Five of last six Verlander starts stayed under total.

Angels-A's
Wilson is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
Lester is 3-1, 3.25 in four starts for the A's.

Angels won eight of their last ten games.
Oakland lost eight of its last eleven games.

Seven of last nine Angel games stayed under.


Interleague games

Orioles-Cubs
Norris is 3-0, 2.59 in his last four starts.
Hendricks is 4-0, 1.53 in his last four starts.

Baltimore won 12 of its last 17 games.
Cubs won four of their last six games.

Six of last seven Baltimore games stayed under.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Lincecum 15-10; Zimmerman 16-9
-- Miller 10-14; Buchanan 6-7
-- Volquez 14-10; Peralta 16-9
-- Santana 14-10; Leake 10-16
-- Koehler 12-13; Lyles 8-7
-- Cashner 6-6; Nuno 0-8
-- deGrom 7-9; Greinke 13-12

-- Hellickson 3-3; Buehrle 17-8
-- Carroll 5-9; Kuroda 11-14
-- Farmer 1-0, Verlander 13-11; Pino 5-5, May 0-2
-- Young 15-8; Workman 2-8
-- McHugh 8-11; Salazar 6-7
-- Guthrie 14-11; Tepesch 7-8 (won last 3)
-- Wilson 12-11; Lester 13-8/3-1

-- Norris 13-8; Hendricks 6-1

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Lincecum 9-25; Zimmerman 1-25
-- Miller 5-24; Buchanan 2-13
-- Volquez 7-24; Peralta 4-25
-- Santana 7-24; Leake 7-26
-- Koehler 4-25; Lyles 5-15
-- Cashner 3-12; Nuno 1-8
-- deGrom 2-16; Greinke 6-25

-- Hellickson 1-6; Buehrle 6-25
-- Carroll 6-14 (3 of last 3); Kuroda 11-25 (5 of last 5)
-- Farmer 0-1, Verlander 8-24; Pino 0-10, May 1-2
-- Young 2-23; Workman 7-10
-- McHugh 9-19; Salazar 1-13
-- Guthrie 10-25 (5 of last 7); Tepesch 3-15
-- Wilson 5-23; Lester 6-25

-- Norris 7-21; Hendricks 3-7

Umpires
-- SF-Wsh-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Emmel games.
-- StL-Phil-- 14 of last 17 O'Nora games stayed under.
-- Pitt-Mil-- 11 of last 16 GGibson games went over.
-- Atl-Cin-- 12 of last 17 Diaz games went over total.
-- Mia-Col-- Seven of last ten Timmons games went over.
-- SD-Az-- Under is 9-6 in last fifteen Foster games.
-- NY-LA-- Underdogs are 14-9 in last 23 Bucknor games.

-- TB-Tor-- Five of last seven Tumpane games stayed under.
-- Chi-NY-- Over is 11-5-1 in Woodring games this season.
-- Det-Min-- Seven of last nine HGibson games stayed under. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Guccione games.
-- Sea-Bos-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Hernandez games.
-- Hst-Clev-- Last six Ripperger games stayed under total.
-- KC-Tex-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Wendelstedt games.
-- LA-A's-- Three of last four Fairchild games went over total.

-- Balt-Chi-- Seven of last eight Segal games went over total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mariners keep collecting W's behind this pitcher
Stephen Campbell

The Seattle Mariners are playing some great baseball as of late, especially behind starting pitcher Chris Young. In the 35-year-old's last five starts, the M's are a perfect 5-0.

He'll get the ball when Seattle takes on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park Saturday. The Mariners are currently -110 faves with a total of 8.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

This club is cashing in for Under bettors
Stephen Campbell

If you've been backing the Under in Tampa Bay Rays games recently, you've been collecting some nice profits. Through Friday, the Under is 5-1-1 in Tampa Bay's last seven games.

The Rays face off against the Toronto Blue Jays north of the border Saturday.
Sportsbooks presently list the Jays as -115 faves on the moneyline with an O/U of 8.5 for the AL East matchup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Diamondbacks limp home

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend's major-league action:

Unders Galore

Thursday was the most profitable Under day of the season, with teams combining to go 0-8-1 O/U. Only two teams - Atlanta and San Francisco - scored more than four runs, while the Braves, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals all recorded shutouts.

Diamondbacks Limp Home

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-121, 8.5) return home Friday for their series-opening tilt with the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks went 2-8 on their 10-game road trip through Cleveland, Miami and Washington, scoring just 21 runs on the entire trip en route to a 4-6 O/U mark.

Lester's Home-Field Advantage

Jon Lester should have a decided upper hand Saturday as he and the Oakland Athletics face fellow lefty C.J. Wilson and the visiting Angels. Lester is 7-4 with a 1.88 ERA and a 3-10 O/U mark in home starts this season, while Wilson is 3-6 with a 5.22 ERA on the road.

Sale Owns Yankees

Best of luck to the Bronx Bombers on Sunday, as they tangle with Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox. Sale is 3-0 with a 0.85 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 31 2/3 career innings versus the Yankees, and tossed six innings of one-hit, 10-strikeout ball against them earlier this season.

Pitching Notes

* Jordan Lyles has an impressive string on the line Saturday as he leads the host Colorado Rockies into a showdown with the Miami Marlins. Lyles has racked up five consecutive overs - going 1-0 with four no-decisions over that span - and is 11-4 O/U for the year.

* Stephen Strasburg has had plenty of success against San Francisco as he and the Washington Nationals entertain the Giants on Sunday. Strasburg is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four career starts versus the Giants, including an impressive win as a -127 favorite back in June.

Hitting Notes

* The Mariners may have some trouble containing David Ortiz. The Boston Red Sox slugger has been red-hot over the past seven days, going 12-for-21 with four home runs and eight RBIs - and he's the only one hitting well for Boston, which has dropped five straight.

* It could be a long Saturday for Rays outfielder David DeJesus. He's hitting just .179 with two doubles and a homer in 78 career at-bats versus Toronto Blue Jays left-hander Mark Buehrle, who gets the call in the second game of the series.

* John Jaso will look to end his struggles versus Jered Weaver when the Athletics and Angels do battle Sunday. Jaso has just one hit in 17 career at-bats against Weaver, though he has drawn five walks - the most of any Oakland hitter versus Weaver.

Totals Streak

Baltimore Orioles (1-5-1 O/U): Solid pitching has been the catalyst for the Orioles' four-game winning streak; they've allowed just seven runs during that stretch, which was capped by a sweep of the host Chicago White Sox. Baltimore is 54-68-3 O/U for the year.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to take a chance on the Miami Marlins prevailing by exactly one run Friday night in Colorado (+600). The Marlins have played one-run games in nine of right-hander Henderson Alvarez's last 14 starts - and won all nine.

Injury Notes

* The Angels have lost starter Garrett Richards for the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. Richards was one of the best value plays in the majors this season, racking up $1,060 as the Angels went 19-7 in his 26 starts.

* The Dodgers are expected to have shortstop Hanley Ramirez (oblique) back in the lineup Sunday afternoon against the Mets. Ramirez has missed the last 12 games with the injury; Los Angeles is 6-6 SU, 5-7 O/U and -131 units in his absence.

Weather Watch

* A 9 mph wind will blow in from center field Saturday when the Red Sox host the Mariners. Teams averaged just 1.57 homers while batting a paltry .227 in seven games with the wind blowing in from center a year ago - well below Fenway Park averages.

** Odds, stats, weather forecasts and probable pitchers as of 9:45 a.m. ET Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: Royals (71-55) at Rangers (49-77)

Game: 2
Venue: Globe Life Park in Arlington
Date: August 23, 2014 8:05 PM EDT


After a hiccup against the NL's worst team, the Kansas City Royals resumed their impressive run against the worst club the AL has to offer.

The Texas Rangers could be hard-pressed to slow down Kansas City on Saturday night given the power shown recently by Billy Butler and Josh Willingham.

The visiting Royals (71-56) bounced back from Wednesday's 5-2 loss at last-place Colorado with a 6-3 victory over the hapless Rangers (49-78) on Friday. Kansas City has won 23 of 29, turning an eight-game deficit in the AL Central into a 2 1/2-game edge over Detroit in that span.

Butler hit his eighth homer while Willingham connected for his 14th. Butler still owns a career-worst OPS of .718 but has compiled a .972 mark over his last 18 games. Willingham is batting .344 and slugging .656 in 10 games since being acquired from the Twins, for whom he hit .210 and slugged .402 over 68 contests.

Willingham's former club is 14 games out of first place while Kansas City is eyeing its first playoff berth since 1985.

"Obviously, it's awesome being in a pennant race, and every game, every at-bat means something," Willingham said.

Though Salvador Perez was 0 for 5, his presence in the lineup was a welcome relief after he had been scratched from Wednesday's lineup due to discomfort in his right knee. An MRI only showed inflammation, alleviating some concern considering the All-Star catcher underwent surgery two years ago for a torn meniscus in his other knee.

Jeremy Guthrie (9-10, 4.48 ERA) will take aim at winning a career-high fourth straight road start. He owns a 2.45 ERA in that stretch, though he looked vulnerable in Sunday's 12-6 win at Minnesota, yielding four runs - three on two homers - over seven innings. He received 11 runs of support, marking the third time in five outings he was backed with at least six runs.

Guthrie has never won in four starts at Texas, going 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA. Elvis Andrus is 8 for 19 against him with a home run and two doubles.

The Rangers have struggled to find good starting pitching lately, with their staff compiling a 6.99 ERA while losing six of eight. Nick Tepesch (4-7, 4.15) has been strong of late, however, posting a 2.45 ERA in his last four starts.

He's just 1-1 in that span, largely due to receiving only six runs of support over 25 2-3 innings.

He held the Los Angeles Angels to two runs while pitching seven innings for the second straight outing for the first time in his career in Texas' 3-2 win on Sunday.

"It's starting to come together for him," manager Ron Washington said of the 25-year-old Kansas City native.

Tepesch allowed an unearned run and seven hits over 6 1-3 innings in his only start versus Kansas City, coming away without a decision in the Rangers' 4-1 home loss on June 1, 2013.

The Royals had dropped 10 of 11 at Texas before taking four of the last six meetings there.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win

MLB COMP

DET @ MIN

1* (Game 1): Twins ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Jays Sting-Rays'

Game two of a three game series between Toronto and Tampa is today’s baseball betting focus. Toronto’s lefty Mark Buehrle will toe the rubber for John Gibbons' squad this afternoon, bringing an 11-8 record, 3.38 ERA to the hill. Following a superb 10-1 mark over his first 12 starts (11-1 TSR) the southpaw is a shaky 1-7 the past thirteen on the mound (6-7 TSR). On the other side, Rays' counter with right-hander Jeremy Hellickson sporting a 1-2 record, 2.56 ERA over six starts this campaign (3-3 TSR). According to the current betting odds Blue Jays enter this contest as -$1.25 home favorite. A club such as Toronto ridding a 2-7 skid along with a shaky hurler is usually a reason to walk away from a game. However, there appears to be enough in Jays' favor in this situation to counteract such concerns. It all starts with Toronto's success against Tampa with Buehrle. Jays' are 3-0 vs Rays' this season with the hurler, 5-2 in his seven starts since joining the club. In addition, Jays have thrived at Rogers Center as a favorite with Buehrle going 14-4 the past eighteen starts. Finally, when Buehrle has pitched during a day game the Jays have won six of his eight trips to the mound.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

It was a Uehara show in Boston Friday night as the Sawx closer opened the floodgates for the Mariners and sent Hondo’s runaway debt soaring to 1,520 rasmussens.

Saturday night: Mr. Aitch expects Cashner to be the victor against Nuno — 10 units on the Padres.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

NFLX Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs

5* Minnesota Vikings

5* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in NFLX action set to start Saturday, August 23 at 8:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning their third straight preseason game. You may be aware that Week 3 in the NFLX offers some of the best betting opportunities for the season. It is a final dress rehearsal for many teams before the real season begins in ernest. Many opinions focus on the fact that Minnesota is 2-0 and really doesn't have any great need to play their first units longer than a few possessions. yet, the following system shows otherwise. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-11 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this matchup. KC is just 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards since 1993; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards since 1993; 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1993. Take the Minnesota Vikings.

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EZWINNERS

3* (951) San Francisco Giants +$170

3* (979) Los Angeles Angels +$140

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Saturday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Buccaneers at Bills (-3, 41½)

2014 Preseason Records:
TB: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
BUF: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS

Preseason review: Tampa Bay’s offense has been nearly non-existent in two preseason losses to Jacksonville and Miami, scoring just 24 points. The Bucs have lost six of their past seven exhibition contests, while tallying 17 points or fewer six times in this stretch. The Bills are finally playing at home following three games away from Western New York, including last week’s 19-16 defeat at Pittsburgh as a short underdog. Buffalo’s defense has looked solid, allowing 19 points or less in each contest.

Previous preseason meeting: First preseason matchup

Cowboys at Dolphins (-3½, 46½)

2014 Preseason Records:
DAL: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
MIA: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Dolphins fell short in their preseason opener at Atlanta, 16-10, but bounced back last week with an impressive 20-14 triumph at Tampa Bay as a 2½-point underdog. The Cowboys continue to have their issues defensively after giving up 37 points in last week’s seven-point home defeat to the Ravens. Dallas has dropped five of its past six preseason contests, while scoring seven points or fewer in three of the last five exhibition games.

Previous preseason meeting: Cowboys defeated Dolphins, 30-13 as 2½-point home favorites in 2012.

Titans at Falcons (-3½, 44)

2014 Preseason Records:
TEN: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
ATL: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: One week after holding off Green Bay in a driving rainstorm, the Titans fell at New Orleans, 31-24 as three-point underdogs. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ hit in four of the past six exhibition games, while posting an 0-3 SU/ATS record in its last three preseason road tilts. The Falcons were destroyed at Houston last week, 32-7 while getting outscored 19-0 in the second half. Atlanta has struggled in the preseason the last few years, posting a 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS record since 2011.

Previous preseason meeting: Titans beat Falcons, 27-16 as three-point home favorites in 2013.

Redskins at Ravens (-2½, 43½)

2014 Preseason Records:
WSH: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS
BAL: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

Preseason review: The Redskins benefited from a Hail Mary touchdown pass on the final play of Monday’s 24-23 victory over the Browns as two-point home favorites, while the ‘over’ of 41½ cashed. The Ravens cruised past the 49ers in the preseason opener, 23-3, then outlasted the Cowboys in Dallas last week, 37-30. Baltimore built a 27-10 lead over Dallas before the Cowboys got as close as four points in the final five minutes of regulation.

Previous preseason meeting: Ravens beat Redskins, 34-31 as four-point home favorites in 2011.

Saints at Colts (-2½, 47)

2014 Preseason Records:
NO: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
IND: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Colts have gone 0-for-New York in two preseason contests, losing to the Jets and Giants. Last week’s defeat to the Giants was an epic meltdown, blowing a 26-0 advantage before allowing 27 unanswered points in the fourth quarter of a 27-26 loss as one-point home favorites. The Saints have looked solid through two victories over the Rams and Titans, while each game easily went ‘over’ the total. New Orleans has covered eight consecutive preseason games, as the Saints own a 5-1 straight-up record in their past six exhibition contests.

Previous preseason meeting: Colts beat Saints, 27-14 as 3½-point road favorites in 2006.

Vikings at Chiefs (-4, 45)

2014 Preseason Records:
MIN: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS
KC: 1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Vikings have squeezed out two home wins over the Raiders and Cardinals, as rookie Teddy Bridgewater led Minnesota on the game-winning touchdown drive against Arizona in a 30-28 victory last week. The Chiefs outlasted the Bengals in the preseason opener, 41-39 at home, but followed up with a clunker at Carolina, falling to the Panthers as three-point road underdogs, 28-16.

Previous preseason meeting: Vikings beat Chiefs, 17-13 as three-point home favorites in 2009.

Rams at Browns (-2½, 43½)

2014 Preseason Records:
STL: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
CLE: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS

Preseason review: The Browns have failed to win a preseason game, while rookie Johnny Manziel has not taken control of the quarterback position for Cleveland. Manziel is 14-of-27 passing in a pair of one-point defeats to the Lions and Redskins, while Cleveland covered in Monday’s 24-23 loss at Washington in the final seconds. The Rams have lost each of their first two home contests to the Saints and Packers, as St. Louis owns a 1-5 SU/ATS in its previous six preseason games.

Previous preseason meeting: Browns beat Rams, 27-19 as 3 ½-point home favorites in 2013.

Texans at Broncos (-7, 46)

2014 Preseason Records:
HOU: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
DEN: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS

Preseason review: The Broncos knocked off the top two teams in the NFC, the Seahawks and 49ers to begin the preseason at 2-0. Denver opened up San Francisco’s new stadium with a 34-0 shutout of the 49ers to easily cash as four-point road underdogs. The Texans have been involved in a pair of blowouts, getting blanked at Arizona, 32-0, but followed that embarrassment up with a 32-7 rout of the Falcons at home.

Previous preseason meeting: Texans beat Broncos, 19-16 as three-point home favorites in 2008.

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | INDIANA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Home teams (WASHINGTON) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
134-75 since 1997. ( 64.1% | 51.5 units )
6-12 this year. ( 33.3% | -7.2 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) off a loss against a division rival, in August or September games
243-86 since 1997. ( 73.9% | 0.0 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good free throw shooting team - making >=76% of their free throws
320-201 since 1997. ( 61.4% | 98.9 units )
21-14 this year. ( 60.0% | 5.6 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | MIAMI at COLORADO
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
340-242 since 1997. ( 58.4% | 103.4 units )
26-13 this year. ( 66.7% | 12.7 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BALTIMORE at CHICAGO CUBS
BALTIMORE is 42-26 (+19.5 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.3) , OPPONENT (3.4)