8-25-14

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Kevin's Pick(s):
I couldn't make it three straight last night as our underdog pick on the Astros falls by a score of 3-1. I've got two big underdog plays tonight in two West Coast games.
2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants - ROCKIES TO WIN (+162)
Listed Pitchers: Matzek vs Peavy
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.24 units)
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners - RANGERS TO WIN (+155)
Listed Pitchers: Mikolas vs Elias
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.10 units)


Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Buchholz vs. Happ
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
Harang and the Braves were unable to make a late comeback, as the Reds took advantage of a rather anemic Atlanta offense. Hasn't been an ideal month for me unfortunately. New week and hopefully better results to finish up August.
Every game for the Toronto Blue Jays the remainder of the season is critical. It'll be the difference between a playoff spot or another choke job in Toronto. With their offense there is no reason they shouldn't be out of the playoffs, anything less would be choking in my opinion, and Blue Jays' fans will certainly agree. The Jays have won six straight over the Red Sox, so there is room for optimism in this series. Clay Buchholz is a big reason why the Red Sox are last in the AL-East. He's been nothing but a disappointment for the Sox who are already looking forward to next season. Buchholz carries a 5.94 ERA into tonight with a 1.55 WHIP and .356 OBP. Remember he had a stellar 2013 campaign, pitching for a 1.74 ERA. This season he hasn't had it. I thought maybe after a solid outing against the Astros two starts ago he may pick up some momentum, but he followed that 2 run outing up with 6 earned runs against the Angels. This will be the third time the Jays have seen him in a month. The prior two times they hit him for 4 and 7 runs. Why should we expect to see anything change tonight. His opponent, J.A. Happ, looked to be in for a big season in the early goings, but has since had a turbulent ride. However, he has been pretty good at home, 3.26 ERA, and has had success against the Red Sox recently. On July 22nd he went for 6 innings not allowing a single run. The Red Sox are in the midst of a 8 game losing streak, and should be without David Ortiz tonight. They've given up all hope. The Blue Jays should be focused as they try and catch up to Seattle for a Wild Card berth. I'll take Toronto in what is quickly becoming must-win situations for the Jays.
Cheers,

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Jimmy Boyd

2014-08-30 (5 days)

MLB Premium Picks

MLB	Aug 25 ,2014	7:05p	[959] Tampa Bay Rays [960] Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays +118 at bovada
3* Rays/Orioles AL East Main Event on Rays + The Rays are showing great value as a road dog against the slumping Orioles. Baltimore was just swept by the Cubs in a series where they total a mere 4 runs on 13 hits over 3-games. I look for the Orioles offense to remain in a funk against Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi, who comes in with a sizzling 2.29 ERA and 0.763 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Rays are a perfect 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 road starts and 5-2 in his last 7 when he faces an opponent who scored 2 runs or less in their previous game. Winning on the road hasn't been much of a problem for Tampa Bay of late. The Rays are an impressive 21-6 in their last 27 road games and 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning home record. Adding to that is the fact that the Rays are 42-19 in their last 61 games against a team that strands 6.9 or less base runners per game in the second half of the season. There's also a solid system in play. Road teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are ice hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 37-14 since 1997. That's a 73% system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!

MLB	Aug 25 ,2014	10:10p	[955] Milwaukee Brewers [956] San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres +125 at 5dimes
4* MLB No Brainer on Padres + The Padres are showing great value as a home underdog on Monday. San Diego will be returning home after a lengthy 10-game road trip. The Padres have won 10 of their last 11 home games. San Diego also looks to have a strong edge on the mound. The Padres will send out Eric Stults, who comes in with a red-hot 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Milwaukee will counter with the slumping Kyle Lohse, who has a 4.52 ERA and 1.403 WHIP over 15 road starts and an ugly 8.31 ERA and 2.154 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Stults is 15-4 in his last 19 home starts against a team who draws 3 or less walks/game. Strong system in play on the Padres. Teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts are 54-28 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!

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PAUL LEINER

100* Blue Jays -130
50* Nationals -145

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MLB

1* (952) Phillies +$135
1* (961) Red Sox +$108
1* (967) Rangers +$155
1* (957) Rockies +$155

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

(952) Philadelphia Phillies+140

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MLB betting cheat sheet: Buchholz an Over Machine

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the early-week major-league games:

Tigers, Twins Go Way Over

The Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins completed a high-scoring series in style Sunday, with the Tigers (-138, O 9) romping to a 13-4 road victory and a split of the four-game set. The teams went Over in all four games, scoring a combined 73 runs in the series – an average of better than 18 per contest.

Buchholz an Over Machine

Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz looks to end a season-long trend Monday as he faces the host Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 9). Buchholz has been one of the strongest Over plays of the season at 14-6 overall and 7-2 on the road, thanks in no small part to his 5.94 ERA.

Bumgarner Dodges CarGo

Madison Bumgarner may find things a bit easier than normal Tuesday as he and the San Francisco Giants welcome Colorado to town. Bumgarner has allowed 10 homers in 297 at-bats against members of the Rockies roster, but half have been hit by Carlos Gonzalez, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

Pitching Notes

* Right-hander Chris Tillman will need to be careful with a familiar foe as he leads the host Baltimore Orioles (-132, 8) into Monday’s series opener with Tampa Bay. Rays third baseman Evan Longoria has dominated the matchup with Tillman, batting .433 with five homers in 30 at-bats against him.

* New York Yankees righty Brandon McCarthy looks to continue his hot play in the Bronx as he takes the hill Tuesday against the host Detroit Tigers. McCarthy is 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA and is 3-5 O/U in eight starts since being acquired from Arizona just prior to the trade deadline.

Hitting Notes

* St. Louis shortstop Jhonny Peralta will look to resume his dominance against Pittsburgh left-hander Francisco Liriano as the Cardinals (-137, 7) face the host Pirates on Monday night. Peralta is 14-for-42 with two homers, eight walks and a .440 OBP in his career versus Liriano.

* New York Mets first baseman Lucas Duda is heating up heading into Tuesday’s series kickoff against the visiting Atlanta Braves. Duda homered twice and drove in five runs Sunday, and has racked up five homers and 11 RBIs over his past six games.

Totals Streak

Texas Rangers (1-5-3 O/U): The Rangers have one of the more interesting totals streaks going, with three pushes in a nine-game span – each a 6-3 Texas loss on a total of nine. Texas is 57-62-10 O/U for the season; the 10 pushes leads the American League.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to take a chance on the Rangers and Mariners hitting Monday’s total of eight (+900). The Rangers have played to within a run of the total six times in the last nine games, connecting on three of them.

Injury Notes

* Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario (wrist) will take batting practice Monday and is expected to return to the starting lineup in the coming days. The Rockies are 12-14 SU, 13-10-3 O/U and -133 units for the season with Rosario out of the lineup.

* Boston has placed shortstop Xander Bogaerts on the seven-day concussion list after he was struck in the head Friday. Bogaerts was mired in a 1-for-23 slump prior to the injury, a stretch that dropped his average to .223 for the season.

Weather Watch

* Wind at AT&T Park will blow out to center field at 8 mph for Monday’s game between host San Francisco (-174, 7.5) and Colorado. Teams averaged 1.44 home runs under similar conditions in 2013 – slightly above stadium averages – but scoring was down slightly and teams combined to go 22-26-2 O/U.

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Game of the Day: Yankees at Royals

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (-136, 7.5)

The Kansas City Royals are winners of 24 of their last 31 games and have advanced to the top spot in the American League Central. The New York Yankees, who visit the Royals for a one-game makeup Monday, are winners of four straight as they try to stay in contention for a postseason spot. The Yankees begin a stretch with 22 of the next 31 games against teams owning winning records.

The Yankees needed walk-off wins in two of the three games over the weekend to beat one of the worst teams in the AL in the Chicago White Sox and has not won a series on the road against a current winning team since taking three straight at Seattle from June 10-12. The Royals took two of three from the Yankees from June 6-8 before the finale of the four-game series was postponed until Monday. Kansas City’s offense has scored six or more runs in each of its last seven wins and totaled four home runs over the weekend in Texas.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN, YES (New York), FSN Kansas City

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Royals as -136 home favorites. The total opened 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Yankees – LF Brett Gardner (Doubtful, ankle). Royals – 1B Eric Hosmer (15-day DL, hand).

POWER RANKINGS: Yankees (-162), Royals (-185).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “While the Pinstripes having enjoyed good success against the Royals of late, winning eight of the last twelve contests, the makeup of these two squads has changed dramatically this season. In Shields, Kansas City owns a legitimate staff ace, one who has enjoyed success against the Bronx Bombers, going 8-2 with a 2.19 ERA his last ten home team starts. Shields is also an eye-popping 15-3 in his last eighteen overall team starts during the month of August. With his counterpart Michael Pineda still being limited to a conservative pitch count following his lengthy return off the DL, look for Pineda’s August woes (1-5 career team starts) to continue tonight.” Marc Lawrence.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Michael Pineda (2-2, 2.05 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (12-6, 3.28)

Pineda has made two starts since coming off a stint of nearly four months on the disabled list and picked up right where he left off. The 25-year-old held Baltimore and Houston to a total of three runs and six hits in 11 innings but did not factor in the decision in either outing. Pineda is still building his stamina and has yet to record an out in the seventh inning or later this season.

Shields posted his sixth straight quality start Tuesday by holding Colorado to two runs on nine hits in six innings while striking out six. The free agent to be owns 16 strikeouts against three walks in his last three turns and owns a 3.23 ERA in 11 home starts in 2014. Shields faced New York at home June 8 and yielded only an unearned run in six innings while striking out eight to grab a win.

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 4-0 in their last four overall.
* Royals are 8-1 in their last nine home games.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Pineda’s last six starts overall.
* Yankees are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Kansas City.

CONSENSUS: 68 percent of wagers are backing the Royals.

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BET4WINS
League : ENGLAND: Premier League
Match : Manchester City vs Liverpool
Tips : Both teams to score

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getmybet
League: ENGLAND: Premier League
Match: Manchester City vs Liverpool
Tips: Over 2.5

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BUYFOOTBALLTIPS
League : NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie
Match : Volendam vs Roda
Tips : Over 2.5

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macaukingtips
League: ENGLAND: Premier League
Match : Manchester City vs Liverpool
Tips : ManCity -0.5

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goforwinners
League : ENGLAND: Premier League
Match : Manchester City vs Liverpool
Tips : Both teams to score

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Cappers Access

Royals -140
Angels(RL) -1.5(+125)