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Sean Murphy
Miami
Miami
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Teddy Covers
Miami +150Comment
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Dave Essler
2* Oakland Over 8Comment
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Worlds Worst Picker
Cardinals
Royals
OriolesComment
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IVEY WALTERS
3% Washington Nationals -145Comment
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MATT FARGO
9* Philadelphia Phillies ML
9* Colorado Rockies MLComment
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INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)
3-Unit play. Take Under 7 1/2 - Rangers vs MarinersComment
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Mike Davis
5* - Over 7.5 Colorado / SF
4* - SF -1.5 (+130)Comment
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klprodigypicks
Rays ml (+108)
pirates -1.5 (+170)
brewers -1.5 (+135)Comment
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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo
Milwaukee Brewers MLComment
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Sports Insurance Adjusters for 8/25
Washington RL -1.5 +115
Pittsburgh -135
Milwaukee RL -1.5 +135Comment
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Sportswagers
MLB Free Picks for Aug 25, 2014
TORONTO -114 over Boston
J.A. Happ is an incredibly hard pitcher to get a read on. He is the definition of all or nothing, as six of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, while the other six have all resulted in disaster. Despite being 0-3 over his last four starts, a 3.62 xERA and 8.1 K’s/9 in that time shows that he is capable of much more. Happ has been very decent at home with a 4-4 record to go along with a 3.26 ERA. He’ll face a Red Sox offense that is sputtering in August, where they have a .227 BA and .623 OPS. That said, this one is more about fading Clay Buchholz in this extreme hitters park.
The Jays scored just one time yesterday against Chris Archer of the Rays but they just missed hitting several balls out and when they weren’t striking out they were making solid contact. With Edwin Encarnación and Adam Lind back, Toronto’s first six batters look like this: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Lind, Encarnación and Dioner Navarro. Nobody in that group is hitting under .273 and both Cabrera and Lind are hitting well above .300. Reyes is hitting .365 in August. Current Jays have seen Clay Buchholz plenty, with 78 hits in 276 career AB’s against him (.276). That’s when Buchholz was pitching well. The Red Sox have lost Buchholz’s last six starts and the lowest output by the opposition over that stretch was five runs. One of those defeats was by a score of 14-1 to these Blue Jays less than a month ago in Boston. Buchholz was walked 15 batters over his past 30 innings. He has an ERA of 5.94 and a disturbing 1.55 WHIP in 23 appearances, 19 of those as a starter. Of those 19 starts, Buchholz has seven of the pure quality variety. After facing the Rays starters over the weekend, the Jays take a huge step down in class here. Toronto’s offense is on the verge of a serious explosion and we’re suggesting it happens in this series.
Our Pick
TORONTO -114 (Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)
St. Louis @ PITTSBURGH
St. Louis +124 over PITTSBURGH
This series is as big as it gets, as the Pirates try and chase down the Cardinals for one of the two Wild Card spots. Atlanta, Miami and San Fran are still in it too but this series will have an impact. The Cardinals are very used to big games in late August and so is John Lackey. Lackey has come a long way in the past three years, evolving from one of Boston’s biggest distractions and disappointments to one of its rotation anchors. Despite all he’s gone through, Lackey has managed to stay the course. Talk about eerie consistency and one need not look further than Lackey. That's now two straight years of pinpoint control and elite command for Lackey, replicating the skills that made him one of 2013’s best pitchers, skills wise. He's still inducing grounders at a healthy level, albeit with a few extra line-drives allowed, which upped his hit % a few ticks. ERA and xERA remain in line with each other, with room for slight improvement. Lackey has been mostly unaffected by luck factors. Lackey's late-career renaissance continues. Skills similarities aside, he has pitched as a front-line starter going on two years now. Lackey's remaining starts will all be relevant and they are also an audition for a new contract. He's a good bet to provide front-end production the rest of the way and he’s certainly a better option taking back a tag than Francisco Liriano is spotting one.
Liriano has experienced a huge skill spike since the All-Star break due to a surge in groundballs (60% groundball rate) and a steep reduction in walks but don't expect his improved control to stick. He has posted a 4.7 BB/9 in three separate months this season and his post-All-Star break 57% first pitch strike is the same as it was in the first half. At home this season, Liriano is 1-5 with a 5.23 ERA and an oppBA of .270. In his last two starts, Liriano has walked seven batters over 10 innings. Lastly, these Cardinals know him well with a combined 176 career AB’s against him. St. Louis batters have hit .290 off of Liriano and they figure to get more scoring opportunities in this one. The Cardinals chances of winning the opener of this series has to be considered equal to or better than the Pirates chances, which creates this value play.
St. Louis +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)
Colorado @ SAN FRAN
SAN FRAN -1½ +124 over Colorado
Forget what the Rockies have done at home over their past nine games (winning six) because it does not matter. When this team takes the road a metamorphosis occurs that turns them into the Bad News Bears. Away from Coors, Colorado is hitting just .236 with just 18 wins in 62 games. Without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup, Colorado is hitting .192 on the road. Back in June, the Rockies came in here and swept the Giants, which incredibly just happens to be 1/6 of their road wins this season. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Jake Peavy gets this start for the Giants. Peavy has earned the win in each of his last two starts, after going 0-12 over his previous 18 starts. Since joining the Giants he has made five starts and he’s getting sharper. Peavy has posted a 2.75 ERA over his past three starts. At AT&T Park, he’s 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and the Giants have won his last two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-1.
Despite losing two of three in Washington over the weekend, the Giants still scored 18 runs against a very good staff, which includes three reputable starters (Zimmerman, Strasburg and Fister). The Giants have scored five runs or more in seven of their past 10 games and lead the majors over that span with a .308 batting average. They’ll now get a crack at Tyler Matzek. Matzek has started 13 games for the Rockies since his call-up in mid-June. Over 77 innings, he was an ugly BB/K split of 30/53. Over his last 29 innings, his BB/K split is 15/21. Matzek has always had control problems, even in the minors, where his best walk rate since 2009 was 4.2 BB/9. He has a WHIP of 1.52 and a BAA of .289 and it’s not due to Coors Field either. On the road, Matzek has allowed 51 hits in 39 innings for an oppBA of .323. He’s 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.23, which is right in line with his road xERA of 5.89. Matzek is one of 14 starting pitchers that the Rockies have used this season and if they weren’t in such dire straits, Matzek would be pitching in the minors, where he belongs. Once again, you can expect the Rockies to turn into pumpkins because that’s who they are as soon as they leave Denver.
Our Pick
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)Comment
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Brad Wilton Your Monday Winner...
Monday winner is a 150 Dime release on the Milwaukee Brewers with Lohse over the San Diego Padres with Stults. At 4:30 am Vegas time, the Brewers are -125 favorites. Both listed pitchers must start, or this is a no play.Comment
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Chris Jordan MLB Winner...
My 600♦ Winner is on the OVER in the clash between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. And as of 6 a.m. pacific, I see the line on this one is 9 flat.Comment
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Jeff Clement
8* Kansas City -133
8* Seattle -168Comment
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