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Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta
It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013—his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings. This year with 4½ weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.
Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently. The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.
NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted.
Our Pick:
NY Mets +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)
Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta
It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013—his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings. This year with 4½ weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.
Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently. The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.
NOTE: There were several games off the board at the time of this writing and it's possible we may add a game or two a bit later. If so, we'll tweet it out when posted.
Our Pick:
NY Mets +119 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.38)
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