8-30-14

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Dr. Bob

Arkansas

California

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Prediction Machine Sides

Sat Aug. 30th ATS

Rot3 Pick Opp Line Pick%
197 FLAST OKST -17.5 61.5
156 UCF PSU -1.5 59.2
163 TROY @ UAB 2.5 58.6
169 FLAATL @ NEB 23 58.1
204 WISC LSU 5 58.1 166 @ NW CAL -10.5 57.6
195 WASH @ HAWAII -17 57.2
161 APP @ MICH 34.5 56.7
181 CLEM @ UGA 7.5 56.3
189 IDAHO @ FLA 36.5 56
179 ARK @ AUBURN 21 55.9
158 @ NAVY OHIOST 14 55.4

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LCM Sports

Georgia Bulldogs

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Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider

Clemson at Georgia

As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 55. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250). The number for the side opened at 8.5, while the 'over/under' started at 58 before steadily coming down.

Georgia's 2013 season was marred by injuries and ended with a disappointing 24-19 loss to Nebraska at the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs finished 8-5 straight up and they were horrible for our purposes, finished with an abysmal 3-9-1 spread record. Four of UGA's losses were one-possession games, and three of its defeats were gut-wrenching heartbreakers.

The first back-breaking setback came at Clemson in the opener. The Tigers won a 38-35 decision and UGA failed to convert a short field goal in the fourth quarter when the holder couldn't handle a snap. When Mark Richt's team went to Nashville, it let a lead get away at crunch time in a 31-27 loss to Vanderbilt. On the Plains in November, a terrific second-half comeback was wasted when Auburn hit a bomb for a touchdown on a fourth-and-long play after a pair of UGA defenders deflected the pass directly into the hands of a streaking wide receiver.

Senior QB Hutson Mason finally gets his chance as the starter after backing up the departed Aaron Murray, who threw for a school-record 13,166 career passing yards. When Murray tore his ACL in a home win over Kentucky in late November, Mason got a pair of starting assignments. In his first on The Flats, UGA trailed Georgia Tech by 13 at intermission before Mason orchestrated a rally. He threw for 299 yards and a pair of TDs in a 41-34 double-overtime victory. In the loss to Nebraska, Mason threw for 320 yards but a third-quarter interception gave the Cornhuskers a short field and proved to be costly.

UGA returns six starters on offense and eight on defense. RB Todd Gurley is healthy after battling a nagging ankle injury that forced him to miss three full games and a good chunk of a win over LSU. Nevertheless, Gurley still ran for 989 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Dawgs have the country's best 1-2 combo of RBs now that Keith Marshall is also healthy. Marshall went down with a torn ACL in a win at Tennessee in early October. Marshall ran for 759 yards (6.5 YPC) as a true freshman in 2012.

UGA senior WR Malcolm Mitchell saw his 2013 campaign end in the opener at Clemson when he was injured in an end-zone celebration. Bad luck hit Mitchell again when he got hurt at the first practice in August. The knee injury has him listed as 'doubtful' on Saturday. Also, WR Justin Scott-Wesley is suspended.

Clemson returns five starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that went 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS. The defection on offense are crucial, though. The Tigers must replace the school's all-time leader in passing yards (Tajh Boyd) and receiving yards (Sammy Watkins). Boyd blew up Charlie Whitehurst's career numbers early in his senior year in which he posted a 34/11 TD-INT ratio. The production of Watkins (101 catches, 1,464 yards and 12 TDs in 2013) will be impossible to replace.

Clemson's only losses last season came to top-five teams (vs. FSU and at South Carolina), but we should note that its only regular-season victory over a ranked foe came in the opener vs. UGA. With that said, the Tigers probably had their best performance in their last time out when they captured a 40-35 win over Ohio State as 2.5-point underdogs at the Orange Bowl.

Senior QB Cole Stoudt takes over as the starter under center. He has a stellar 8/1 TD-INT ratio but has never really seen meaningful playing time. In 2013, Stoudt completed 47-of-59 throws (79.7%) for 415 yards and five TDs without being intercepted. True freshman Deshaun Watson, the prize of Clemson's 2014 recruiting class, could see some playing time.

Dabo Swinney probably has the best combo of coordinators in the country with OC Chad Morris and DC Brent Venables. The latter has done a tremendous job in his two years since coming to Clemson after 13 seasons at Oklahoma, and his 'D' in 2014 should be the Tigers' best in at least a decade. This unit is led by DE Vic Beasley, who earned first-team All-American honors as a junior by registering 13 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 12 QB hurries.

As a road underdog during Swinney's tenure, Clemson owns a 6-3 spread record.

Since 2004, UGA has struggled as a home favorite with a 24-32-2 ATS ledger.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

Florida State vs. Oklahoma State

As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had FSU listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 63.5. Bettors can take the Cowboys to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

FSU is set to defend the school's third national title when it makes its first appearance at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The Seminoles have won 16 in a row and haven't tasted defeat since Florida won by a 37-27 count in Tallahassee in late November of 2012.

Jameis Winston led FSU to a 14-0 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark. He shredded defenses for 4,057 passing yards with a 40/10 TD-INT ratio. Winston also ran for four scores.

Jimbo Fisher's team brings back seven starters on offense and six on defense. The defense lost five of its top six tacklers, while the offense lost leading rusher Devonta Freeman (14 rushing TDs) and WRs Kelvin Benjamin (15 TD catches) and Kenny Shaw (54 receptions, 933 yards & six TDs).

Despite the departures of Benjamin and Shaw, Winston has a pair of All-American candidates to target in WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary. Green had a team-high 76 receptions for 1,128 yards and nine TDs last season, while O'Leary hauled in 33 catches for 557 yards and seven TDs.

FSU went 10-2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.

Oklahoma State has lost a lot of talent from a 2013 squad that finished 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. The Cowboys lost by nine at West Virginia, by nine against Oklahoma and by 10 against Missouri at the Cotton Bowl. However, all three of those games were much closer than the final score indicated and OSU was in position to win all three of those contests midway through the fourth quarter.

Mike Gundy's team returns just eight total starters (four on each side of the ball). Junior QB J.W. Walsh is the starting QB after Clint Chelf departed. Walsh has eight career starts and a 22/8 career TD-INT ratio. Chelf has last year's leading rusher Desmond Roland back in the mix. Roland ran for 811 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Gundy will have a new weapon at his disposal in prize recruit Tyreek Hill, a world-class sprinter who will play both WR and RB and might even get touches out of a Wildcat-type formation. OSU fans can look for Hill to make a lot of explosive plays, and the Cowboys will need several Saturday night if they're thinking upset.

Oklahoma State lost eight of its top nine tacklers from one of its best defenses during Gundy's tenure. The unit allowed only 21.6 PPG but must replace a slew of key players.

This is the richest underdog spot for Oklahoma State since a 36-10 loss at Texas as an 18-point 'dog way back in 2006.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Wisconsin vs. LSU

This meeting of SEC and Big Ten powers will take place in Houston. Then in 2015, LSU will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay to face Wisconsin.

As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had LSU installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50 for 'over/under' wagers. The Tigers are -200 on the money line, while the Badgers are +170 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $170).

Les Miles's team went 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS in 2013. The Tigers dropped a pair of heartbreakers on the road at Georgia (44-41) and at Ole Miss (27-24). They closed the season with a 21-14 non-covering win over Iowa as 7.5-point 'chalk' at the Outback Bowl.

LSU returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. It lost its top four offensive players to the NFL Draft, including QB Zach Mettenberger, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Odell Beckham Jr. Nevertheless, the Tigers have a solid offensive line and an outstanding trio of RBs. Despite backing up Hill, Terrence Magee rushed for 626 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.3 YPC. Kenny Hilliard, who was the MVP of the 2011 SEC Championship Game as a freshman, had seven rushing scores last season and averaged 4.6 YPC. Miles also landed the nation's No. 1 RB in the 2014 class, Leonard Fournette. If Fournette is 'as advertised,' LSU fans can count on an eighth double-digit win season in the 10th year of Miles's tenure.

LSU is expected to play both of its QBs against Wisconsin. Anthony Jennings got one start last season against Iowa, but he didn't look sharp in the winning effort. To his credit, however, Jennings replaced an injured Mettenberger in a tie game and threw a game-winning TD pass to beat Arkansas in the regular-season finale. Brandon Harris was more impressive in the spring game, though, as Jennings threw a pair of pick-sixes.

Wisconsin brings back seven starters on offense and three on defense from a team that went 9-4 both SU and ATS. The Badgers lost three one-possession games last season and dropped a 34-24 decision to South Carolina at the Capital One Bowl. One of those defeats, a 32-30 setback at Arizona State, can be blamed on Gary Andersen, who made a knucklehead clock-management decision that prevented his team from being able to attempt a short field goal for the win. They basically lost their entire front seven, including All-American LB Chris Borland, so inexperience on defense is a concern.

Wisconsin's Joel Stave started all 13 games at QB last year and six as a redshirt freshman in 2012. But Andersen named Tanner McEvoy as the starter vs. LSU last week. McEvoy provides more of a scrambling dynamic, but he played safety for the Badgers last season. Andersen clearly wants a more mobile QB in the mold of his signal caller Chuckie Keeton at Utah St.

The catalyst for UW is junior RB Melvin Gordon, who is a legit Heisman candidate. Gordon rushed for 1,609 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 7.8 YPC in 2013. Those numbers earned the speedster third-team All-American honors. Gordon will run behind an offensive line that's ranked tops in the Big Ten by Phil Steele.

UW lost its top four pass catchers, including perennial All Big Ten selection Jared Abbrederis.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

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Nelly's Green Sheet

RATING 5 NEBRASKA (-23) over Florida Atlantic
RATING 4 ARKANSAS (+20½) over Auburn
RATING 3 FLORIDA STATE (-17½) over Oklahoma State
RATING 2 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (+11½) over Houston
RATING 2 TULSA (-5) over Tulane
RATING 1 TEMPLE (+14) over Vanderbilt
RATING 1 TROY (PK) over Uab

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The Gold Sheet

Key Releases

PENN STATE by 13 over Ucf
OHIO STATE by 24 over Navy

Penn State 30 - Ucf 17—Penn State piled up 455 total yds. and scored 31 pts. vs. UCF defense LY, as Nittany Lion QB Hackenberg completed 21 of 28 with no ints., but UCF’s offense was just a bit better. However, Hackenberg and RB Zwinak (3 rush TDs vs. the Knights LY) are both back, while Knight QB Blake Bortles (288 YP, 3 TDP in LY’s meeting) and RB Storm Johnson (17 carries for 117 YR LY) are in the NFL. New Penn State HC Franklin landed a monster haul in recruiting (12 four-stars, tied for most in country), and early returns indicate several are impact players. But let’s face it, if Iceland’s Mt. Bardarbunga blows its top, neither team gets on the plane. (at Dublin, Ireland)

Ohio State 41 - NAVY 17—Loss of QB Miller will take a toll on OSU down the road, and not having star DE Spence (suspended 1st 2 gms.) is also an issue. But favor superior Buckeye athletes to seize the day. Navy ace QB Reynolds was special LY when facing bad teams (171 ypg rushing), but gained only 54 ypg rushing against teams that were .500 or better. This is the first ranked team the Middies have faced in 2½ years, and, with extra prep time to get ready for the option, expect OSU’s superior athletes to handle matters and cover reduced spread. Urban Meyer comparing backup QB J.T. Barrett favorably with Kenny Guiton, and presence of 6-5, 250-lb. Buckeye QB Cardale Jones, who was listed right behind Miller after spring workouts, gives OSU a “Tebow-like” change-of-pace and quality depth. (at M&T Stadium)

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The Gold Sheet CKO

10 *HAWAII over Washington

Late Score Forecast:
*HAWAII 24 - Washington 29

While they were throwing the fish with more zing at Pike Place Market after the exciting news that U-Dub had lured
decorated HC Chris Petersen from Boise, the Huskies figure as a work in progress until further notice. Remember,
several key cogs from LY’s offense spent summer in NFL camps, expected first-string QB Cyler Miles has been
suspended at the outset (soph Jeff Lindquist makes first-ever start), and U-Dub must travel three time zones for its
opener. Keep in mind that Norm Chow’s Hawaii has covered all three big spreads vs. Pac-12 foes since 2012, and
MW sources report the Rainbow Warrior “O” should operate with a sharper edge now that Chow is opting for a
mobile QB (soph Ikaika Woolsey), while slamming RB Joey Iosefa is beyond LY’s injury woes. Scouts also alert to
upgrades from the Hawaii “D” under new d.c. Kevin Clune (via Utah State) and his 3-4 looks that better fit personnel
on hand.

10 *TEXAS over North Texas

Late Score Forecast:
*TEXAS 45 - North Texas 10

Let’s be honest. Mack Brown’s Longhorns found themselves in a bad way in 2013 when the team lost key players
such as QB David Ash, top RB Johnathan Gray, and LB Jordan Hicks to injury, and when their defense could not
cope with uptempo spread teams such as BYU, Mississippi, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oregon (all UT losses).
Now, at the beginning of 2014, new HC Charlie Strong has available Ash (now in fourth season; concussion
problems LY) and Brown (780 YR in 8+ games LY; Achilles) in his QB-friendly offense. Yes, Strong is dealing with
some suspension/injury problems at the outset. But his team is catching scrappy North Texas breaking in a new
starting QB and replacing 6 of 7 starters in its front seven on defense. The Mean Green will enjoy a few shining
moments. But their offense is considerably below those prolific, quick-striking teams listed above. 2014’s more-
disciplined, better-focused Texas team, under demanding, defense-oriented Strong, should make enough big plays
vs. the UNT front seven to eventually pull away decisively.

NINE-RATED GAMES: CALIFORNIA (+10) at Northwestern (Sat., Aug. 30)—Golden Bears in much better shape than they were in last years’ season-opening loss to the Wildcats; NW offense will miss the running dimensions of graduated QB Colter...MISSISSIPPI STATE (-30) vs. Southern Miss (Sat., Aug. 30)—Good chance for MSU QB Dak Prescott to draw early Heisman attention; Southern had lost 23 straight until LY’s season-ending victory over similarly-woeful UAB.


TOTALS: UNDER (57½) in Ucla-Virginia Game (Sat., Aug. 30)—Experienced, quality defenses of both teams should limit long gainers on offense; UVa needs ball control vs. UCLA’s Brett Hundley...OVER (55) in Alabama-West Virginia Game (Sat., Aug. 30)—Regardless of its starting QB, Crimson Tide is deep, relentless at its skill positions; Mountaineers can fire away with QB Trickett; not sure about WV stopping power (only 16 sacks LY).

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The Red Sheet

Alabama 45 - West Virginia 7
RATING: ALABAMA 89

Utah State 27 - TENNESSEE 23 - (7:00 Sunday)
RATING: UTAH STATE 89

BAYLOR 66 - Smu 20
RATING: BAYLOR 88

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 31
RATING: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 88

GEORGIA 33 - Clemson 17
RATING: GEORGIA 88

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 51 - Fresno State 13
RATING: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Florida State, Marshall, Auburn, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Miami-Florida

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
SATURDAY, AUGUST 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ __________

NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Central Florida (+4.5) won 34-31 at Penn State last year, running ball for 219 yards; total yardage was 507-455, but UCF has new quarterback, 3 new starters on offensive line. Lions have new head coach in former Vanderbilt mentor James Franklin. Penn State lost 4 starters on OL; they're 2-4 in last six neutral field games; its sophomore QB had 12 starts in 2013. UCF covered four of last six on neutral field. This game is being played in Ireland, for some reason.

•Ohio State lost senior quarterback Miller for season, a damaging blow; they beat Navy 31-27 (-22) in last meeting five years ago. Buckeyes are 5-8-1 versus spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they lost 4 starters on offensive line from last year. Midshipmen have 15 starters back and junior QB with 21 starts- they're 20-9 as an underdog (79.3%) under coach Niumatololo. Buckeyes are in trouble at QB, experience-wise- they had 12 days to prep new QB to start.

•UCLA has 17 starters back, a quarterback with 27 starts, an NFL head coach and is 5-2 in last seven tries as road favorites; they covered seven of last eight out of conference games. Virginia is 4-8-1 in last 13 games as home dog; they have 3 starters back on offensive line, sophomore QB with 7 starts, are just 3-9-1 in last 13 non-ACC games. Long road trip for Bruins, who don't play Texas for two weeks, shouldn't be looking past Cavaliers.

•Troy won four of last five meetings with Alabama-Birmingham, with three of last four won by 3 or less points; Trojans are 2-3 in last five visits to Legion Field, with underdog 3-2 versus spread in those games. Blazers have new head coach, new quarterback, but also has 15 other starters back- they're 4-12 versus spread in last 16 games when favored. Troy has new QB, 6 starters back on both sides of ball- they are 5-2-1 in last 8 games as dogs. Average total last four series games, 61.8.

•Northwestern (-5.5)won 44-30 at Berkeley in last season's opener, running ball for 209 yards. Wildcats were 5-0 as home favorites in 2013, after being 5-18 as HFs under Fitzgerald before that. NW has all five starters back on offensive line, but has senior quarterback with only 3 career starts. California has 4 starters back on OL; they're 2-7 in last nine games as road dogs. Bears have a sophomore QB with 12 starts- they had 460 passing yards in LY's game.

•Notre Dame gets mobile quarterback Golson back after he was suspended last season; he led Irish to national title game in 2012. Irish have 3 starters back on offensive line, are 8-11-3 as home favorites under Kelly, 27-48 overall when favored in last decade. Rice covered six of last seven games as road underdog- they have 3 starters back on OL, junior QB is making only 2nd start. Notre Dame plays Michigan next week, figure to hold back a little here.

•Alabama didn't name #1 quarterback this week; they've got three starters back on offensive line. Crimson Tide are 17-11 as road favorites under Saban, covering eight of last 10 on neutral fields, but are just 6-8 versus spread out of South Eastern Conference play last three seasons. West Virginia is 7-7 as underdogs under Holgorsen; they've got senior QB (9 starts) but only two starters back on OL. The Mountaineers are 8-16 versus spread in last 24 non-conference games.

•Arkansas won four of last six matchups with Auburn; underdogs are 9-5 versus spread in last 14 series meetings, 5-2 in last seven visits to Jordan Hare Stadium, with Razorbacks winning three of last four games on this field. Marshalll will play but won't start at quarterback for Tigers after weed bust this spring. Auburn has 4 starters back on offensive line, is 22-12 versus spread in conference play (64.7%) last four years. Arkansas is 5-12 versus spread in last 17 games as underdog, 3-8 in last 11 games as a road dog.

•Clemson (+2.5) beat Georgia 38-35 in 2013, first renewal since 2003 of an old intense rivalry; Bulldogs had 545-467 yardage edge last year, 222-197 running ball. Both sides have new quarterback; Georgia's QB is senior who made couple starts last season, including bowl loss to Nebraska. Georgia is 5-8 as favorite at home since 2012, 10-15 in non-league tilts since 2009. Tigers are 6-3 as road underdogs under Swinney, 14-10 versus spread overall on foreign soil.

•Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio U; underdogs covered three of last four meetings. Bobcats lost last two visits to Dix Stadium both by an identical 28-6 score. Ohio is 1-6 as road underdogs since 2011; they've got a new quarterback but have 3 starters back on offensive line. Kent has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they're 10-6 as home favorites (62.5%) since 2009, 1-1 under Haynes, in his first year at Kent.

•Purdue (-1.5) beat Western Michigan 37-32 in last meeting three years ago; Boilermakers have sophomore quarterback (7 starts), three new starters on offensive line with no senior starters but are 5-4 in last nine tries as home favorite- they have 15 starters back overall. Broncos are 1-11 in Fleck's first year as head coach; they're 8-6 as roads underdogs since 2011. Western Michigan could go with a freshman QB, as new coaches usually prefer their own recruits.

•Florida Statereturns Heisman winner Winston at quarterback, has four starters back on offensive line (5 senior starters) and has covered 12 of last 15 games on a neutral field. Seminoles are 13-11 versus spread away from home with Fisher as coach. Oklahoma State has junior QB (8 starts) but lost 3 starters on OL; they're 5-3 versus spread in last eight games as underdogs. The Cowboys lost 7 starters on both sides of ball from last season.

•LSU will use two quarterbacks, but Jennings played in Outback Bowl win over Iowa last season; Tigers have 4 starters back on offensive line, are 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 11-17 versus spread in last 28 non-South Eastern Conference games. Wisconsin will use more mobile QB rather than experienced (19 starts) returning starter Stave. Badgers covered five of last seven games as underdogs, are 8-5-1 versus spread in last 14 games on neutral fields.
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Total Notes - Week #1
Expert Jude Ravo

The 2014-15 NCAA College Football season is underway and this column will be focusing on totals throughout the season. After watching Thursday night’s action, it’s apparent that the oddsmakers will be making major adjustments to their power ratings, especially after watching three healthy road underdogs (Texas A&M, Temple, Rutgers) capture outright victories.

Each week throughout the college football season, we're going to lean on StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo and his expertise on totals. When it comes to analyzing college number there aren’t many that can measure up to his knowledge and we believe you’ll find that out for yourself. With that being said, we asked him some questions on his approach and the upcoming season.

Question: Due to the up-tempo attacks in college football, how should bettors handicap the opening numbers based on the teams and their styles?

Ravo: Setting numbers for the college football totals marketplace has certainly changed over the last 5 years and, unlike in the NFL, where rule changes have been a big part of the altered landscape, the college game seems to have been more effected by tempo and conference dynamics. Teams going to an ultra-up-tempo style, and having success, have caused other teams and coaches to take a hard look at the number of plays run in a game and how that effects scoring. In addition, the success of some of those faster paced programs has caused traditional rivals and conference affiliates to adjust and adapt in an attempt to "keep pace."

This is really evident in the Big XII Conference where we regularly see totals now that would have been considered outlandish just a few years ago. This is largely due to the Big XII leading all conferences in average MOP (average number of plays run per minute of offensive possession time). The lowest widely available total posted for Week #1 was 47 while we saw eight games (20.5%) open with totals of 60 or higher... the median opening total across all games was 54.5. According to Ravo, the below chart he created is a great guide to understanding totals in college football.

•Very low would be 40 or under
•Low total anything lined at 47 or less.
•Meduim total would be from 47.5 to 56
•High from 56.5 to 67.
•Very high anything over 67.5.

Question: For Week #1, what’s the proper approach a bettor should take?

Ravo: The first week of the college football season is an instance where a prepared and experienced total bettor can probably find the biggest variance between his numbers and the books. This can create excellent betting opportunities but limits are usually lower and there are inherently more variables involved as there are less pertinent data to use. While later in the season I may play ANY total that is 3 points off from my line, in the opening weeks it may take a bigger difference for me to make a play based ONLY on my own numbers.

Question: What factors are the most important to look at when handicapping Week #1?

Ravo: Early on the most important factors for betting totals are coaching continuity, tempo, expected PPD, and matchups... but as always it’s about the number you are betting into and betting into soft lines early remains the easiest and surest way to win.

Question: What differentiates your technique from other professionals?

Ravo: I rely heavily on my own offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to both make my own number and determine what totals to bet. Essentially my offensive efficiency ratings give each team's chance to score per possession. It does not differentiate between the type of score (FG, TD) but allows me to gauge a team’s ability to create points per possession. Conversely, my defensive efficiency ratings give me each teams expected chance to stop the other team from scoring on each possession. It is not relative to field position, or TO margin, but an average across all expected enemy possessions. Both total number of possessions and total number of plays run are important to determining an offenses effect on the total but I value possessions and PPD (points per drive) more as Yards Per Play and TOP can be deceiving at times and some teams who run a high number of offensive plays are not necessarily efficient.

Line Moves
If you look at Thursday’s results from the first six games, all of them had significant moves and the house got beat up. Bettors going with the money, would’ve went 5-1 and the winners were clear-cut. The lone loser was the Tulane-Tulsa matchup which had an opener of 47 and close of 45 ½. Tulsa captured a 38-31 win in overtime. As of Friday, some lucky bettors are staring at a middle of close to 10 points on the Bowling Green-Western Kentucky game. The total opened 54 ½ at CRIS and is hovering at 64. When you see that much of a shift, it’s apparent that the professionals (Sharps, Wiseguys, etc...) believe the opener was a huge mistake.

Listed below are totals that have had a move of at least three points of the opener from CRIS, a major offshore outfit that is one of the first to release numbers. Make a note that you can follow all the moves for every game via our Odds and/or Scores.

•Ohio State-Navy: 57½ to 54½
•UCLA-Virginia: 57 to 54
•Georgia Southern-N.C. State: 53½ to 56½
•Ohio-Kent: 51 to 47½
•North Texas-Texas: 52½ to 49½
•UTEP-New Mexico: 67½ to 64½

Your Guide To Crushing The Books In NFL/NCAAF
Both the NFL and NCAAF regular seasons are right around the corner. Will you revert back to making questionable bets all season long and barely breaking even, if not losing money on the year? It's time you take control of your betting future and do it the right way. "Let the Experts here at StatSystems Sports guide you this season and help you crush the books like never before!"

Are you tired of those bad beats, the late back door covers which ruin your bet, along with the repeated mediocre or losing season? Well you've come to the right place and we are here to make sure that never happens again. Our team of Pro's are eagerly awaiting to smash the sportsbooks once again this year in both NFL and NCAAF.

"Why not join in on the profits with them and learn their secrets to success!"
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Top 5 Win Totals
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor

College football is back! I think I speak for a ton of fans when I say it’s good to have college football going once again. One of the areas where I have been most profitable over the years is finding regular season win totals plays that have value. I love breaking down a team’s strengths and weaknesses and evaluating the schedule to see what kind of value I can find on these season long wagers. If you are comfortable with tying up your money for a few months, I truly believe season win totals are among the best bets out there. Here’s a look at five of my favorite college football win totals for 2014.

#1 Virginia Tech - OVER 8
This one is available for the regular -110 juice almost everywhere, and I really like this play. Frank Beamer is still one the best coaches in the land, and Bud Foster might be the best defensive coordinator in all of college football. The Hokies churn out the best defensive backs into the NFL every single year. I expect Virginia Tech’s secondary to be a “no fly zone” once again this year. The key for me though is the Hokies improved offense. Quarterback Michael Brewer should be a big step up from the extremely inconsistent Logan Thomas. Brewer showed what he could do at Texas Tech, and he’ll excel in the ACC.

The Hokies receivers and running backs are much better than they were a year ago. There is plenty of depth at every position on offense. Another big key here is the Hokies schedule. Virginia Tech plays at home against Georgia Tech and Miami. The Hokies have to travel to Ohio State and North Carolina this year, but with Braxton Miller down with an injury I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia Tech is competitive in that game. The Hokies won eight games despite being awful offensively last year. Ten wins is far more likely than eight this season. Bet the over.

#2 Vanderbilt -UNDER 6
This win total was originally available at under 6.5 wins. Now, you’ll have to pay up a bit to get under 6, but it should be worth it in the end. The Commodores have had two overachieving seasons under James Franklin, and they are due for a down year. Vanderbilt was -76 yards per game last year in the SEC despite their 4-4 record. That tells me last year’s 9-4 record was a fluke. In addition, last year’s team had loads more talent than this year’s team will have. The loss of wide receiver Jordan Matthews will crush this team’s offense. They also lost three of their top four tacklers from a year ago. I look at Vanderbilt’s schedule and see a 4-8 record in their future. Bet the under.

#3 UCLA - OVER 9.5
The UCLA Bruins are a national title contender in my opinion. I love Brett Hundley, and the job he did last year was nothing short of amazing. Nearly everyone around him (running backs, offensive line, etc) were going down with an injury, and Hundley still managed to put up big numbers and lead the team to a 10-3 record. The Bruins have recruited really well, and Jim Mora Jr. is an underrated head coach. They should certainly stay healthier than they did a year ago. UCLA hosts Oregon as well as USC and Stanford. The schedule sets up nicely, and UCLA should be favored in at least 11 of its 12 games. Take the over.

#4 Toledo - OVER 7.5
The Toledo Rockets are going to dominate in the trenches in the Mid-American Conference this year. The MAC is a conference where there are a bunch of weak teams in the trenches, and that allows Toledo to take advantage of their strength. Keep advantage of Kareem Hunt as a future star at running back. The Rockets are a veteran team (16 returning starters) who is very capable of making short work of nearly every conference foe. They get Bowling Green at home this year, and Northern Illinois should be much weaker than they have been in recent years. I think Toledo wins at least nine games this season. Take the over.

#5 Stanford - UNDER 9
The Pac-12 is an extremely sound conference with lots of improved teams this year, and that means that someone has to take a step back. I expect one of those teams to be the Stanford Cardinal. While I respect what David Shaw is doing at Stanford, I think the talent level at this program has dipped significantly below the talent level at a school like Oregon or UCLA. Kevin Hogan is going to have to be the man for this offense this season, and I’m not sure he is the type of quarterback that can win games alone. The Cardinal front seven on defense is much weaker than a year ago. Look at the road games Stanford must play this year: at Washington, at Notre Dame, at Arizona State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. I see seven or eight wins for Stanford in 2014. Take the under.
__________________________________________________ _______________

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Gridiron Trends - Saturday
•NORTH TEXAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTH TEXAS 30.5, OPPONENT 18.4.

•FLORIDA ST is 15-3 UNDER (+11.6 Units) as a neutral field favorite since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 30.5, OPPONENT 16.0.

•W MICHIGAN is 2-13 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1992.
The average score was W MICHIGAN 20.9, OPPONENT 30.4.

•MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 22.8, OPPONENT 8.8.

•HAWAII is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HAWAII 14.7, OPPONENT 21.1.

•DAN MCCARNEY is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in games played on turf in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was MCCARNEY 21.4, OPPONENT 34.8.

Situational Analysis of the Week
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (AUBURN) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season.
(50-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (98%, +48.7 units. Rating = 8*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -130
The average score in these games was: Team 43.8, Opponent 15.5 (Average point differential = +28.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-1, +21.7 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (84-9, +36.3 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (133-29, +18.8 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Virginia +19.5
Notre Dame -21
Wisconsin +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Florida State vs. Oklahoma State

Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+18, 63)

Florida State's title defense begins with a stern test Saturday, as the national champion Seminoles open against Oklahoma State in Dallas. The Seminoles return 15 starters from last year's championship squad, including reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston at quarterback, but they aren't easing into the defense of their crown. The Cowboys have won six straight season openers and have knocked off four top-10 foes under coach Mike Gundy, though they've never beaten a No. 1 team.

Florida State's 16-game winning streak dating to the 2012 season is one shy of the school record set from 1999-2000. The Seminoles' retooled defense gets a good early test against an Oklahoma State team that has been one of the nation's most prolific on offense during Gundy's tenture. "They are very diverse, they are very athletic, and they are very well-coached," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "They keep you off-balanced, and they are not scored to do things. They are very aggressive with how they play."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Florida State -17.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles opened as 17.5-point road favorites and now sit at -18. The total has held steady at 63.

INJURY REPORT: Florida State: LB Delvin Purifoy - out for season (ankle). Oklahoma State: N//A.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Florida State (-24) - Oklahoma State (-10.5) + home field (-3) = Oklahoma State +10.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Both the opening line and total were strong plays for this games as Florida State open at -18 and the total is 63.5. We will have a huge decision on the side and the total with 83 percent of cash and 86 percent on Florida State and 95 percent of cash and 93 percent of bets on the over 63.5." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (14-0, 11-3 ATS): The Seminoles return a number of key players from an offense that has put up 30 or more points in 15 straight games, but the receiving corps is thin on experience with starting receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw gone after combining for 108 receptions and 21 touchdowns a year ago. New defensive coordinator Charles Kelly inherits a unit that returns six starters and is especially strong against the pass, with returners having combined for 16 interceptions in 2013. Like they did a year ago, the Seminoles figure to have an advantage on special teams with the return of record-breaking kicker Roberto Aguayo and return specialist Kermit Whitfield.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-3, 8-5 ATS): The Cowboys appear to be headed for a rebuilding year, as they're picked to finish fifth in the Big 12 and don't return much star power. Only six players on the roster have more than 10 career starts, and only one — receiver Jhajuan Seales — plays an offensive skill position. Quarterback J.W. Walsh isn't on that list — he has started only eight games — but could be poised for a breakout year after passing for 22 touchdowns and rushing for 10 while splitting time under center the past two seasons.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 10-4 in the Seminoles last 14 games overall.
* Over is 7-2 in the Cowboys last nine non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just over 53 percent of the wagers are on Oklahoma State at +18. Almost 70 percent of wagers are on the over at 63.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 3 Premier League betting preview: Spurs have found their mojo
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

Resident footy expert Soccer Authority takes a look at the fixture list for the third week of the Premier League season, where Manchester United will look to reverse a dismal start and table-toppers Tottenham Hotspur look to continue its excellent form.

Devil of a start

It’s game week three in the Premier League and there is one thing we can say for sure, ‘United will win’! A bold statement but you only have to think about what the reaction would be if Man United were held or beaten away to Burnley.

Having already lost to Swansea, they drew with Sunderland and were embarrassed by MK Dons in the League Cup. This painful situation for United will force all eyes on Turf Moor this weekend with the old cliché of ‘a must-win game’ serving more purpose than ever before.

There will be goals!

A couple of other games will draw a wide audience hoping to see goals. Champions Manchester City host Stoke and with their recent goal-scoring form and win over Liverpool, you can be sure that City will want to put on another show. Stevan Jovetic will want the goalrush to continue and Aguero will no doubt add more misery to a very lack luster Stoke.

Everton take on Chelsea this week in Goodison Park. Although the Toffees have not put many points on the board, they have played very well in their two previous games. They have an excellent way of opening other teams up and are also very effective on the break. Their defense is their weakness and this can be exploited by Chelsea. Chelsea have enough firepower to cause havoc here and will want to keep up their impressive form.

There will also be goals due in London this week with Liverpool traveling down to take on Tottenham. The Reds will be hurting from their defeat to City last week and will certainly have the ability to put a few goals past Spurs. Nevertheless, Spurs have found their mojo recently and with the home crowd behind them, they could make this a real contest.

Injury watch

- It is looking like Chelsea’s Diego Costa could face a number of weeks on the sideline with a hamstring injury. This is a real shame as the Premier League fans were really enjoying Costa’s link up play with Cesc Fabregas. A blow for Chelsea but they have so much in reserve that they should be able to maintain their form for the next few weeks.

- Arsenal striker Olivier Giroud has broken his tibia and has been ruled out for up to three to four months. This could be dangerous for Arsenal. They might be forced to move Alexis Sanchez into a more central role. Manager Arsene Wenger doesn’t have any plans to sign more players.

Swansea to continue their form

Swansea have really proven that they have grown as a Premier League club and they are here to stay! This week they host West Brom and should pick up maximum points on their home patch. Watch out for Wilfried Bony as this could be the perfect opportunity for him to get on the score sheet and show that last season was no fluke.

[golden contender]

GC: NCAAF System Play

Huge Saturday College Football up and led by 6* 22-0 Totals system, 18-1 system in the LSU vs Wisconsin game, 100% Clemson vs Georgia game, a 95% Blowout system and the 16-0 MLB Totals system of the Week. Free NCAAF System Club Play below.

On Saturday the free College system Club Play is on the UCLA Bruins. Game 159 at 12 noon eastern. UCLA is loaded on both sides of the ball and brings back 16 returning starters for a team that should challenge for the PAC 12 Title this season. They go cross country here today against a Virginia team that struggled vs top echelon caliber teams. UCLA Could start a bit slow here with th travel effect. However they should open this one up in the second half. We note that opening game favorites from 10-5 to 21 have been solid money makers through the years if they outscored their opponents by 7 or more points last season and return 8 or more defensive starters this year. The Bruins have won and covered 7 of the last 8 vs Non conference teams and 13 of the past 16 season openers. Virginia has failed to cover in 6 of the last 7 at home vs Non conference teams. Lay it with UCLA. On Saturday their is a tremendous College card up led by a Huge 6* Highest rated totals system that has Won 22 straight times. Their is a solid 18-1 system in the LSU vs Wisconsin game on ESPN, A Big Afternoon Blowout system cashing 95% and the Perfect system in the Clemson vs Georgia game. We also have the 16-0 MLB Total of the Week. Message to Get on Now and Bury your book with the Most Powerful data and analysis in the Industry. For the free College Play take UCLA. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EPL Best Bets - Week 3
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

The big game last weekend saw Manchester City put in a menacingly good performance as they dispatched Liverpool 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. This was City at their rampant, attacking best. Every time they came forward you feared for Liverpool's defence, and the scoreline could have been higher. At present, City and Chelsea look comfortably the front-runners in the title race at this early stage.

The early leaders are, however, Tottenham. They beat QPR 4-0 in a fine display at White Hart Lane. Spurs were awful last season, but scraped sixth place and there is a new found optimism under Mauricio Pochettino. Otherwise there were wins for Chelsea, West Ham and Swansea.

Let's handicap Week 3.

The Banker: Newcastle United to beat Crystal Palace at 67/100

Newcastle have had a slightly underwhelming start to the season - they haven't scored yet and have only one point to their name, but they should get their campaign up and running with a home match against a Crystal Palace side in turmoil. Palace have just re-appointed Neil Warnock as their manager following Tony Pulis's shock departure on the eve of the new season. As much as he is a likeable and charismatic man, Warnock's Premier League record is poor.

If you take away the defensive solidity that Pulis gave them, the Palace side just looks Championship-standard. With off-field issues dominating events in South London, there has been little clear strategy in the transfer market. This disjointedness showed in the 3-1 home defeat to West Ham last weekend.

Newcastle's transfer business looks very good, with Remy Cabella, Siem de Jong and Daryl Janmaat all adding quality at reasonable prices.

The Solid Bet: Sunderland to beat Queens Park Rangers at 37/20

QPR have been pretty awful so far this season. They opened the season with an uninspiring 1-0 home defeat to Hull City, followed by a 4-0 thumping at Tottenham. And on Tuesday the West Londoners were knocked out of the League Cup by League 2 Burton Albion, 1-0. Three games, three defeats, no goals.

The most alarming thing about the loss at Tottenham was that they opted for a three-at-the-back formation. All three defenders, Richard Dunne, Steven Caulker and Rio Ferdinand, are very slow players and they were just carved apart by Pochettino's rampant Spurs. Harry Redknapp has never been the best at assembling defences, using the 'score more than the opposition' mantra. However his attack at QPR, the surely-departing Loic Remy aside, looks very ordinary. There is a sluggishness to the team, and even after a two year spell a few years ago, QPR still don't really look ready.

Sunderland were unlucky not to beat Manchester United at the weekend, and were excellent in a 3-0 win at Birmingham City in the League Cup. Their away form was decent under Gus Poyet and, on their day, they are a dangerous team going forward.

The Outsider: Burnley to beat Manchester United at 4/1

Manchester United's post-Ferguson nightmare got even worse on Tuesday as League 1 (English football's third tier) side MK Dons hammered United 4-0. United were a disgrace. It seems unbelievable that just 15 months ago they won their twentieth league title. Even with the additions of Angel Di Maria, Luke Shaw and Ander Herrera, there has still not been anywhere near enough rebuilding at the club. Painfully average players, such as Chris Smalling, Phil Jones, Anderson, Nani, Ashley Young and Antonio Valencia are still somehow at the club. Van Gaal's 3-5-2 experiment has been a disaster so far, and yet there seems no prospect of him dropping it soon.

Burnley are still pointless, but they have had a tough start and there have been encouraging signs among the losses. They gave Chelsea a good game first up, and troubled the Blues in the wide areas. Right-back Kieran Trippier and striker Danny Ings are their best players, and Turf Moor was something of a fortress last season. The Clarets lost only once there, and that was against league winners Leicester City, without their two best forwards.

The First Goalscorer: Mauro Zarate for West Ham United vs Southampton at 7/1

This match looks one of the hardest to call this weekend, but there is surely some value in Mauro Zarate, West Ham's new Argentinian striker, carrying on his good form from the Irons' 3-1 win over Palace last weekend. Zarate scored a lovely half-volley in that match and already looks like a great acquisition for the East Londoners.

He scored 18 in 28 for Buenos Aires-based Velez Sarsfield last year and knows English football a bit, having had a spell at Birmingham City in 200708. He has the pace to trouble a new-look Saints back-line and is worth a punt at the price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 177 Preview

Event: UFC 177
Date: Sat. August 30, 2014
TV/Time: (FS1/PPV, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Venue: Sleep Train Arena
City: Sacramento, California

Bettors hoping to see a title fight on Saturday will be disappointed as Renan Barao was removed from the rematch against T.J. Dillashaw (11-2) after reportedly feeling ill during his weight cut Friday. He was replaced by Joe Soto (15-2), who was scheduled to fight the undercard against Anthony Birchak.

UFC 177 still features a solid card, which includes a nice lightweight matchup between contenders Danny Castillo and Tony Ferguson.

Lightweight Bout: Danny Castillo (17-6) vs. Tony Ferguson (16-3)

Line: Ferguson -245, Castillo +200

Danny Castillo represents Team Alpha Male in a big night for the fight camp, as he goes up against Tony Ferguson at UFC 177 on Saturday.

Castillo is coming off a victory at UFC 172 against Charlie Brenneman. In that fight, he was able to get a victory by way of knockout, finishing the match in the first round. The 35-year-old from Sacramento will have the home crowd behind him, which definitely could play a role in this fight. Castillo has shown throughout his career that he has the ability to win a match in many different ways, allowing him to be able to compete against any style of opponent. His terrific cardio could play a huge role in this fight, as his opponent Ferguson has not been in very many matches that have gone the distance. However, a lot of them have not needed to because he has elite knockout power. In his last match against Katsunori Kikuno, he showed that vicious knockout power by ending the match in the first round. He has the ability to end a match in a hurry, something that Castillo has not seen often in his career.

Hailing from Oxnard, "El Cucuy" Ferguson has quite an impressive resume with 16 victories. Of those wins, 10 have come by way of knockout. The 30-year-old also has four wins by submission and two by decision. His biggest advantage in this fight will absolutely be his striking ability. Ferguson enters this match averaging 4.48 significant strikes per minute, which is much greater than Castillo (2.25). If there is one negative in his striking, it is that Ferguson can get a little sporadic with his punches, landing only 32 percent of his attempts, compared to Castillo, who lands 44 percent. If Ferguson is able to keep the fight on his feet, he will be in great position to get the win. However, if Castillo can control the pace of the fight, he will have the opportunity to score the upset.

"Last Call" Castillo enters this match with 17 victories in his career, with seven wins by both knockout and decision. He also has three wins by submission. If Ferguson’s biggest advantage is in his striking, Castillo has an equally big advantage in grappling. For his career, he has a takedown average of 3.45, compared to 1.34 for Ferguson. He does not have a lot of wins on his resume by way of submission, but he does a great job of wearing down his opponent to score some points later in the round. Ferguson has a perfect takedown defense of 100 percent, but he has never faced anyone who is as tenacious on the takedown attempts as his Saturday opponent. This fight is going to be determined by which fighter is able to control the flow of action.

Other UFC 177 Bouts

Lightweight Matchup
Chris Wade -145
Cain Carrizosa +115

Heavyweight Matchup
Anthony Hamilton -215
Ruan Potts +175

Flyweight Matchup
Henry Cejudo -180
Scott Jorgensen +147

Middleweight Matchup
Derek Brunson -140
Lorenz Larkin +110

Lightweight Matchup
Yancy Medeiros -125
Damon Jackson -105

Lightweight Matchup
Carlos Diego Ferreira -205
Ramsey Nijem +167

Bantamweight Matchup
Bethe Correia -145
Shayna Baszler +115

Lightweight Matchup
T.J. Dillashaw -1200
Joe Soto +700