8-31-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SpOrTs-JuNkiE

08-31-14: MLB: Yankees vs Toronto (1:05 pm est.)
$500 MLB Play: Toronto ML +102 <—— (Pending)

Key TRENDS for this game:

Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Blue Jays are 13-6 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Jays are 5-1 in Happs last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in Happs last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in Happs last 5 Sunday starts.
Blue Jays are 5-2 in Happs last 7 starts vs. American League East.
Home team is 5-0 in Fairchilds last 5 games behind home plate.
Home team is 6-1 in Fairchilds last 7 games behind home plate vs. Toronto.
Home team is 13-3 in Fairchilds last 16 games behind home plate vs. New York.
Home team is 4-1 in Fairchilds last 5 Sunday games behind home plate vs. New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LJ Consulting Coach

5* Baylor -34
3* Tennessee/Utah State – Over 51
1* Cincinnati Reds +120
1* Oakland As +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RickJ's Handicapping Picks Sunday MLB Play
1/2 Unit
KC U 8-110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Oakland @ L.A. ANGELS

L.A. ANGELS -120 over Oakland

(Risking 2.4 units - To Win: 2.00)

Cheap price on the Angels, as they have won the first two games of this series while the A’s continue to nosedive. In fact, the Halos have won five in a row and six of seven. They have outscored the opposition over their last five by a count of 24-6 and that’s after facing a slew of strong starters in Henderson Alvarez, Sonny Gray, Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija. The Angels are a cheap price today because they’ll now face Scott Kazmir and his 14-6 record and 3.08 ERA. Thing is, Kazmir is regressing badly right now and appears to be running on fumes. Kazmir has already logged 158 innings this season. He threw that exact same number of innings last year. Prior to last season Kazmir hadn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season since 2006. His strikeout rate has dropped dramatically over his past five games in which he’s struck out just 16 batters in 29 frames. Kazmir has been tagged for 33 hits in his last 27 innings and he’s been taken yard in three straight games. He comes in with an xERA of 4.51 over his last five starts in which his actual ERA was 6.28. Everything is trending wrong for Kazmir. His WHIP is 1.53 over his past six starts, his groundball rate is down, his strikeouts are down and his walk rate is up over that same stretch. In his last start, Kazmir walked two and struck out one. He’s now pitching under a lot more pressure too because the A’s are losing daily and their Wild Card lead isn’t so comfortable anymore.

Since August 10, Oakland has lost 14 of 19 games. In the first two games of this series they have failed to score even one run. In 18 innings here over the past two days, Oakland has 7 hits. Over their last 15 games, the A’s are batting .192 and will now face Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker put up a mediocre 4.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP before the All-Star break, but his base skills gave much more reason for optimism. He has started to cash in on that upside in the second half: 2.43 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 8.8 K’s/9, 1 BB/9 and a 46% groundball rate. His excellent command is supported by an 11% swing and miss rate and 63% first pitch strike rate. In fact, Shoemaker’s elite command against both LH and RH bats are due in large part to having one of the best changeups in the game (23% swing and miss rate). Shoemaker figures to have another strong game here against an A’s team that is seeing golf balls.


Washington @ SEATTLE

Washington +135 over SEATTLE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)

Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off a 67-pitch hiccup at Fenway (2.1 IP, 6H, 5R on Aug. 24) but the 33-year-old right-hander has been ultra-consistent this season and over the last month owns an xERA (2.94) very near his season ERA (2.83). Prior to Tuesday’s misstep, Iwakuma hadn’t registered a rough outing since June 25. Iwakuma is a solid starter and certainly could pitch well here. However, this one has little to do with fading Iwakuma. Washington offers up too much value here as a dog that is 19-9 in August and just keeps on winning.

The Mariners are struggling with four losses in their past five games including the first two games of this set. Over its past three games, Seattle has been outscored 23-8 and will now face a starter in Tanner Roarke that has thrived on the road the entire season. Roark went 7-1 last year as a starter for the Nats and this year he’s won 12 and lost 8. That’s 19-9 overall since the start of last year with a road mark of 10-4 over that same span with an oppBA of .229. Remarkably, RH bats couldn't even manage ONE hit against Roarke’s slider the 141 times he threw it last year and he’s throwing it even more this year. Roarke pitches deep into games. He rarely goes less than seven innings. The Nats have won seven times in the last nine games he’s started and over that span, Roarke has allowed one run or less in six of those nine games. The bottom line is when he pitches the Nats usually win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHAKER’S SHORTS

#206 Utah State/Tennessee UNDER 26 (1st Half Play)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Finest:

Nuggz: Yankes/Jays F5 O 4.5, 2 u
Reds/Pirates U 6.5, 2 u

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Pittsburgh Pirates -132 over the Cincinnati Reds (Bet Level 2) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 1:35 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AL DeMarco

10 DIME LINEMAKERS DILEMMA LOCK

Baylor-SMU at 7:30 Eastern

10 DIME Baylor Bears

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

is a pass today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Free Pick

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

New York -111

The Mets are 14-6 at home against a team with a losing record, and the foldin' Phillies are in town, a team that has packed it in. Last place Philadelphia can't hit, 22nd in baseball in runs scored, 24th in on base percentage, and 26th in slugging. The Phillies are 2-7 in their last nine road games. 37-year old A.J. Burnett (7-14) is 3-8 on the road with a 5.31 ERA. The Phillies are 1-7 in Burnett's last eight starts. New York starter Dillon Gee has had a fine season with opponents hitting .226 off him. Gee held the Braves to two runs on six hits and two walks over 6.2 innings in Tuesday's 3-2 win. The Mets are 7-2 in Gee's last nine starts as a favorite, including 5-2 when he's a home favorite. The Phillies are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings, so grab the home team. Play the New York Mets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis

6* Atlanta Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

MLB

2* Under 7 Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LT ATS

Top play KC Royals with Duffy -167

KC -1.5 +125

Reds with Cueto +118

Mariners -150

Yankees -110

Rockies +107 with De la Rosa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor 3.0 NCAAF Picks

Utah St. +4.5 (B)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Neri Sports – Late Service

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
OPINION: 205 Utah State +4.5 7:00 EST
OPINION: 208 Baylor -32.5 7:30 EST

BASEBALL
964 Atlanta w/Wood -159 5:10 EST – Risk 1 Unit to make .62 Units