9-1-14

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play MON Louisville -3

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Today's CFL Picks

Toronto at Hamilton

The Tiger-Cats host a Toronto team today that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Hamilton is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has Hamilton favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/26)

Game 285-286: Toronto at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.230; Hamilton 114.585 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Toronto by 2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2); Under

Game 287-288: Edmonton at Calgary (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 116.615; Calgary 124.502 Dunkel Line: Calgary by 8; 56 Vegas Line: Calgary by 5; 50 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5); Over

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Hondo

Slumping Hondo threw a bad splitter Sunday, cashing with the Dodgers and paying with the Yankees to raise the dirty rotten digits to 1,565 gehringers.

Monday: Mr. Aitch likes the price with David in Cleveland — 10 units on the Tigers. Also, in matters of National interest, he expects Cole to make the Braves sore 10 units.

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September Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Like the notches in out belt after a tasty Labor Day barbeque, MLB rosters have expanded to accommodate the final month of the season. And as College Football and the NFL crash onto the scene, MLB pitchers take the final spotlight in hopes of leading their teams on to the playoff trail. Which ones can we count on and which ones figure to crash-test dummies? Check it out.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of September. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in September team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each September over the last three years.

Enjoy…

Note: Pitchers with an asterisk (*) next to their named appeared on this month’s list last year.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bumgarner, Madison (10-4)

A consistently good pitcher who can work side to side or up and down in the strike zone, with equal effectiveness. Bumgarner will set a career-high for strikeouts this season and very likely wins, while still being far below a base hit an inning.

*Fister, Doug (11-3)

After being brilliant most of the season, Fister has been a little off his game of late. Otherwise, he’s been sparkling all year and has excelled at keeping the ball down. He is currently on pace to set best-ever WHIP number in a season.

*Gallardo, Yovani (11-5)

Gallardo has pitched much better coming into September, with a 2.86 ERA in his past 10 starts. While not the strikeout pitcher he used to be, his command has been exemplary and should easily surrender the fewest walks in a season in his career.

*Gonzalez, Gio (12-4)

Injuries and inconsistency has plagued the left-hander, which is why he has allowed nearly a hit an inning, unable to fully command his wide array of pitches. Washington needs Gonzalez to find his game like in the past this month and have him ready to be a factor for the playoffs.

Greinke, Zack (8-4)

This Dodgers’ hurler has done everything necessary as the No. 2 starter and is as dependable as they come. If Greinke, Kershaw and Ryu stay on top of their game, the L.A. Dodgers could be headed to the World Series.

*Guthrie, Jeremy (11-4)

Never a great pitcher, for some reason has finished seasons strong in the final month of the year. If Kansas City is to win their division for the first time since 1985, Guthrie will have to do his part to contribute to their success.

*Hughes, Philip (9-3)

How important has Phil Hughes been to the success of Minnesota this season? When he’s started they are 17-10; when he is watching between starts they are 42-66 as August concluded. Based on the past, bettors should know how to bet on Hughes and the Twins the rest of the season.

*Kennedy, Ian (14-1)

For an average pitcher, Kennedy has closed the season like few with this incredible record. This season, his numbers are around career norms, but his sinker has had more bite with two strikes, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Latos, Matt (11-4)

The 6’6 Virginia native has been battling injuries all season and his team has floundered, which has been no fault of the right-hander. With the Reds going nowhere, good time for Latos to pad stats for his next contract.

*Lee, Cliff (11-5)

Season is over for the lanky lefty with what is essentially a bad elbow.

Milone, Tommy (12-1)

Moving from Oakland to Minnesota is probably going to curtail Milone’s September numbers, of which reported above represent three-year career numbers. The A’s gave Milone numerous chances. He just never came through. Subtract this month and the 6’0 lefty has a below .500 career record.

Scherzer, Max (10-5)

While not as domineering as his Cy Young season, Scherzer has been no less effective and did his part from seeing Detroit falling completely apart. Works fast, knows how to change speeds, and added another gear when it comes to getting hitters out with runners on base.

Shields, James (12-4)

Shields had his worst outing in sometime on Aug. 25 and knowing his bulldog determination that could be his last poor game of the regular season. Knows how to pitch and always around the plate. On pace to conceded his fewest walks in five seasons.

*Weaver, Jered (10-4)

No longer having great “stuff”, Weaver as a youngster always knew how to pitch by changing speeds and working the strike zone vertically. He will give the Angels a chance to win the AL West because he knows how to win.

Wilson, C.J. (13-5)

Since coming back from injury, not the same Wilson we are used to seeing. His control has been awful, catching too much of the plate with upper zone pitches and strikeouts-to-walks nearly even. It’s time for the port-sider to elevate his game at crunch time.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS

Buehrle, Mark (5-10)

Unfortunately for Toronto, their season has mirrored that of Buehrle. The Blue Jays like the crafty lefty were super early, but as the season wore on, they started to show wear and tear and have been crumbling since. Lacking velocity, the 35-year old now wears down late in the season.

*Francis, Jeff (3-7)

Designated for assignment in late July by Yankees.

Harang, Aaron (4-9)

Though it seems Harang has pitched better this season than any time in recent years, his numbers are very similar to when he was with the Dodgers two years ago with fewer walks. Can he contribute in September?

Hernandez, Felix (2-10)

Having an absolutely marvelous season, batters are around the Mendoza Line (.202) hitting against King Felix. Very curious to watch how he pitches with playoffs on the line this month, which happens infrequently for the Mariners.

McCarthy, Brandon (4-8)

Cannot remember a pitcher having a bigger in-season turnaround after being traded. McCarthy has arguably become the ace of the Yankees staff, one decimated by injuries. Hence, would have to think McCarthy results will improve this time around.

Norris, Bud (3-8)

Having pitched on bad Houston teams and ineffective last year after coming to Baltimore, Norris has been fair this year for the Orioles. Always look to play on at home and play against on the road.

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ACC Report - Week 1

Miami, Fla. at Louisville

These two sides met in the Russell Athletic Bowl last season, with the Cardinals embarrassing the Canes by a 36-9 score. Both teams are replacing long-time starting QBs, and this is now an official conference game, too. True freshman QB Brad Kaaya takes the reins under center for Miami, while head coach Bobby Petrino turns to QB Will Gardner. The new Cards QB has the benefit of WR DeVante Parker (foot) in the receiving game, although he suffered a foot injury last week and that's worth keeping an eye on. The Cards are a field-goal favorite, and they're 13-3 ATS in their past 16 conference games while Miami is 1-6 ATS in their past seven in conference.

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Miami, Fl. at Louisville
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: Miami, Fl. at Louisville
Venue: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Monday, Sept. 1, 2014
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Louisville -3.5, Over/Under 54
Last Meeting: Dec. 28, 2013, Louisville (-5.5) 36 vs. Miami, Fl. 9

Miami will be looking to avenge an embarrassing postseason loss to Louisville when these schools square off Monday night at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. As of early Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had U of L installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 54. Some books had the Cardinals at minus three with a -120 price.

Bobby Petrino's team is -170 on the money line, while gamblers can take the Hurricanes to win outright for a +150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

Since leaving Louisville after going 41-9 in four seasons from 2003-2006, Petrino has left a pair of jobs under sketchy circumstances. First, while he was at U of L, he flirted with schools like Ole Miss, LSU, Notre Dame and others, not to mention the Oakland Raiders. Shortly after signing a 10-year contract with U of L, he bolted for the Atlanta Falcons.

But within months of his hiring, Michael Vick became immersed in an ugly dog-fighting scandal that led to a two-year prison sentence. Petrino took the job to coach Vick but instead of buckling down and going to work (after all, he was getting paid $5 million per year!), he reacted angrily and distanced himself from his players with his mercurial behavior. In the end, Petrino bolted with three games left in the season to take the Arkansas job, leaving owner Arthur Blank fuming because he went on national television 24 hours earlier and spoke highly of Petrino, who had assured Blank there was nothing to the Arkansas rumors before a Falcons loss on Monday Night Football.

Twenty-four hours after the MNF loss, Petrino was calling the Hogs in Fayetteville live on Sports Center.

Petrino coached his ass off at Arkansas, winning 10 games in his final season. The losses came at LSU and at Alabama, who both had to come to Fayetteville in 2012 when expectations were through the roof based on the return of QB Tyler Wilson and RB Knile Davis.

But during spring practice, a wreck on a Harley Davison motorcycle prompted one of the most scandalous one-week investigation in the history of sports in the state of Arkansas. Petrino initially told AD Jeff Long that he was alone when he crashed. A subsequent investigation revealed that Petrino was with a young co-ed who recently graduated after a volleyball career for the Razorbacks.

Additionally, she had just been given a job within the Arkansas football program ahead of more than 150 other applicants. Petrino also gave her a $20,000 signing bonus out of his own pocket, which was obviously a major breach of school rules.

Since Petrino originally lied to Long about being solo for the motorcycle wreck, in addition to hiring his mistress, the well-respected AD was left with a tough decision. But in the end, despite Petrino's success on the field, it was a no-brainer for Long to send BP packing.

Petrino spent a year away from football repairing his marriage and attempting to make things right with his family. Then Western Kentucky hired him for the 2013 campaign and he led it to an 8-4 record. The Hilltoppers actually made cash in this scenario, as the contract was built to protect the school if BP left after just one season.

Louisville had a strong four-year run under Charlie Strong, who turned down several jobs in 2013, including a lucrative offer from Tennessee, but couldn't pass on the chance to replace Mack Brown at Texas. The Cardinals went 12-1 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread last year, smashing Miami by a 36-9 count as five-point favorites at the Russell Athletic Bowl.

But U of L lost its leader in Teddy Bridgewater, who started at QB for three seasons and finished as the school's third all-time leading passer. He went to the Minnesota Vikings in the first round, as did DE Calvin Pryor. Petrino inherits a squad returning seven starters on offense but just four on defense.

Louisville's 2013 'D' surrendered just 12.2 points per game. Former Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham signed a lucrative four-year contract (guaranteed!) to become the Cards' DC. However, and nobody should be stunned by this, a recent report from SI.com revealed that Grantham and Petrino are having issues galore, including multiple shouting matches in front of the rest of the staff.

Will Gardner saw limited duty behind Bridgewater as a redshirt freshman, completing 8-of-12 passes for 112 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. He has a pair of outstanding RBs to lean on in Dominique Brown and Michael Dyer. Brown rushed for a team-best 825 yards and eight TDs last year while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Cards also have Michael Dyer, the MVP of Auburn's BCS Championship Game win over Oregon four years ago. But Dyer struggled with injuries last year and his status for Monday night is in question due to another injury.

U of L will be without its best offensive weapon in wide receiver DeVante Parker, who broke his foot last weekend and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Parker had 55 catches for 885 yards and 12 TDs in 2013.

Miami started 2013 with seven consecutive wins, only to drop three in a row by double-digit margins once star RB Duke Johnson was lost to a season-ending injury. After getting spanked by U of L in the postseason, Al Golden's squad finished 9-4 SU and 5-8 ATS.

The Hurricanes return seven starters on offense and seven on defense. However, starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who had 46 tackles and three interceptions in 2013, is out for the season due to back surgery. Also, UM's top two quarterbacks, Ryan Williams and Kevin Olsen, won't play against the Cardinals.

Williams is still recovering from a torn ACL last year but could be ready in a few weeks. Olsen is serving a one-game suspension. Therefore, true freshman Brad Kaaya will get the starting nod under center.

The good news is that Johnson is healthy again. Despite playing only seven games, Johnson still garnered first-team All-ACC honors with 920 rushing yards and six TDs. He averaged 6.1 YPC and has take-it-the-house speed on any given carry.

As a road underdog, UM owns a 5-4-1 spread record as a road underdog during Golden's tenure.

This key ACC showdown will kick Monday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

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MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Dodgers Halt Padres' Under Streak

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, O 7) used five runs in the eighth and ninth innings to defeat host San Diego 7-1 Sunday, ending the Padres' latest Under streak at four. San Diego remains far and away the best under bet in the league, sitting 48-82-5 entering the week.

Smyly Dealing Low Totals

Tampa Bay lefty Drew Smyly will look to extend his recent under streak Monday as the host Rays (-152, 7.5) tangle with the Boston Red Sox. Smyly is 1-7 over/under over his last eight starts, and has surrendered just three total runs in his previous four outings.

Welcome Back, Holland

Derek Holland makes his long-awaited 2014 debut Tuesday as the Texas Rangers visit the Kansas City Royals. The veteran left-hander underwent surgery to repair torn cartilage in his left knee and hasn't pitched in a major-league game since last Sept. 28.

Pitching Notes

Gerrit Cole is one of the hottest pitchers going as the Pittsburgh Pirates (+109, 7) visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday afternoon. The Pirates are 7-1 SU in Cole's last eight outings, with the right-hander racking up five quality starts over that span.

Twins lefty Tommy Milone will look to get back on track Tuesday as Minnesota hosts the Chicago White Sox. Milone has surrendered 15 runs in 11 innings over his previous three outings, with the Twins going 3-0 O/U over that span.

Hitting Notes

Philaelphia pitcher Cole Hamels vs. Atlanta first baseman Chris Johnson will be one of the marquee matchups of Monday's showdown between the visiting Phillies (+131, 6.5) and the Braves. Johnson is 7-for-20 lifetime vs. Hamels, but has struck out nine times.

Tampa Bay pitcher Jeremy Hellickson may want to steer clear of Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista on Tuesday when the Rays host the Blue Jays. Bautista is 8-for-26 with threee home runs lifetime against Hellickson.

Totals Streak

Chicago Cubs (5-1 O/U): The Cubs have a wealth of young hitters but continues to scuffle on the mound, surrendering 22 runs in back-to-back losses in St. Louis over the weekend. The Cubs remain a strong over play for the year, entering Monday at 68-62-7 O/U.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to shrink Monday's total between the Detroit Tigers (+104, 7) and the host Cleveland Indians, with Under 5.5 offering +145. Cleveland ace Corey Kluber is 2-10 O/U in his previous 12 starts, while Detroit counterpart David Price is 3-6 O/U in his last nine.

Injury Notes

Kansas City outfielder Josh Willingham missed Sunday's game against Cleveland with back stiffness and is considered day-to-day. Willingham was slumping at the time of the injury, hitting just 4-for-21 over his previous eight games.

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez left Sunday's game against San Francisco with a sore left wrist and is considered day-to-day. Gomez has missed nine games this season, with the Brewers going 4-5 SU, 5-4 O/U and -175 units without him.

Weather Watch

Wrigley Field will see wind blowing out to center field at 13 mph as the host Chicago Cubs (+120) face the Milwaukee Brewers. Teams combined to average better than 13 runs in seven games under similar conditions a season ago.

Umpire Note of the Day

Over is 20-8-3 in umpire Mark Wegner's last 31 games behind home plate involving Minnesota. Wegner will call the balls and strikes for Monday's series finale between the visiting Twins (+136, 8) and the Baltimore Orioles.

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Indiana at Chicago

The Sky look to even up the series as the host an Indiana team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Monday games. Chicago is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 1 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 607-608: Indiana at Chicago (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 108.500; Chicago 114.028 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 151 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 147 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

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'Runs at a premium'

When the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals open their three-game series Monday night 'Under' is a good play. That's because Texas has shown a penchant for 'Under' lately posting a 9-24-4 O/U platting 3.65 runs/game. This being the start of a Texas road series is another positive for 'Under' gamblers as Rangers have played 'Under' in eight of it's past ten road opener's (2-8 O/U). The clincher, the past two seasons, the teams have met nine times, with the 'Under' being the right play in seven games, along with two pushes (0-7-2 O/U). For those reasons and the fact, Rangers Colby Lewis and Royals Yordano Ventura have each seen the 'Under' hit in five of their respective last seven starts (2-5-1 O/U) 'Under' is the best choice.

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MLB

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics September 1, 04:05 EST

The starters will be coming into the game from opposite ends of the spectrum. Despite a rare blip in Chris Young's performance last time out the Mariners have won four straight with the hurler. On the other side, Oakland is on a 1-7 skid in Jason Hammel's eight starts since joining Athletics. Oakland mired in a 6-14 skid expect Seattle to do what they typically do with Chris Young on the mound and that's win!

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Executive


200 Miami Florida

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Paul Leiner

100* Baltimore Orioles -145

50* St. Louis Cardinals -120

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Worlds Worst Picker

NCAAF

Louisville -3.5

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Under trending when these clubs meet

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox have been playing in a lot of low scoring games as of late, evidenced by the Under going 4-1 in their last five meetings through Sunday.

They'll meet again at The Trop Monday. The Rays are currently -153 faves with a total of 7.5.

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Mets cashing tickets for bettors against Miami

The New York Mets have been dominating the Miami Marlins in recent games, winning all five out of the last five meetings between the two NL clubs through Sunday.

They'll face off again in the Sunshine State Monday. The Marlins are -122 faves with a total of seven.