9-4-14

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | GREEN BAY at SEATTLE
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game
83-42 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% | 36.8 units )

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'NFL Kick-Off'

The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mariners on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.

The deficit is 413 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo’s roaring

It’s sweeps week for Hondo, who swept Monday, got swept Tuesday and then swept again Wednesday night as he cashed with the Yankees and Tigers to reduce the dirty digits to 1,655 berenguers. It’s also sweeps week for Hondo’s aged and mathematically challenged accountant, CP Addemup, who will be swept out of a job if he makes another double-C-note error as he did recently.

Thursday night: There will be no sweep for Mr. Aitch, who in his only investment expects a max effort from Scherzer against the Native Americans — 10 units on the Tigers.

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Cappers Access

Packers +5.5

Texas San Antonio +7

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Angels -120

Seattle -135

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VegasButcher

Green Bay Packers +6

I’ve made the case for the Packers in this game in my NFL Preview: VegasButcher's 2014 NFL Preview so I won’t go into too much detail in this analysis, but I will highlight a few things.

•Packer’s pass rush will be an issue for Seattle. Signing Peppers to start opposite of Matthews is a big factor here as Seattle’s O-line ranked dead-last in Adjusted Sack Rate last season. Sure the line will be healthier but it’s still a major weakness for the Seahawks. Improved pass-rush by Green Bay will help control the line of scrimmage and I don’t see Seattle being as efficient offensively.

•Green Bay’s offense this year will be more dominant than at any point over the last few years. That’s saying a lot, but with the addition of Lacy and dominant run-blocking (5th in ALY) that Packers’ O-line displayed last season, I don’t see how this Packers team doesn’t improve offensively. An effective run-game will slow down Seattle’s pass-rush, will force the safeties to play closer to the line of scrimmage, and will of course enable the Packers to control the clock in the 2nd half of the game if they have a lead. Rodgers is an absolute stud, but with an elite run-game (something he never had before), he’ll be a super-stud this year and that’s a scary thing.

•Regression is a fact not fiction. Seattle’s D played at a historically high level last season and though some might expect the same level of efficiency, it’s very unlikely. Regression will happen and I have a hard time seeing this Seattle D being just as good. Add in the fact that NFL is cracking down on holding, jamming past the 5 yard line, and just general contact with WR’s down the field, and it’s not so difficult to see that Seattle’s D will need to make some adjustments which might take some time. This could be a very critical factor in this game as Green Bay has an elite offense and could cause major issues for Seattle’s physical-style of play.

•Familiarity with Harvin. This one is not so obvious, but it’s a factor in Green Bay’s direction. Having faced Harvin for a number of years when he played with the Vikings, Packers are very familiar with his abilities. The guy missed a lot of time over the last few years, and teams within Seattle’s division might not have seen him before, making him possibly an even bigger weapon than he already is. But not so against the Packers who have a better shot of containing him than others.

•Scrap the SuperBowl from your memory. I’ve heard people say that Seattle will crush the Packers on Thursday, like they did to Denver in the SB. That’s a very dangerous approach to this game. Denver was decimated with injuries on defense in the SB last year and had virtually zero pass-rush in that game (Miller was injured, remember?). Packers will have a potentially scary pass-rush this season. Denver had Peyton Manning throwing passes, who is very accurate but lacks the mobility and arm-strength at this point of his career to get the ball down the field and in tight coverage against a dominant D. Seattle played Denver’s receivers very tight, put a lot of pressure on Manning, and the final results spoke for themselves. Well, Rodgers has a rocket, he is extremely mobile, but most importantly he’s not afraid to squeeze the ball into tight windows and actually is one of the better QB’s in placing the ball in the right spot for his receivers. The physical, tight coverage of Seattle’s secondary won’t be as big of a factor against Rodgers as it was against Manning in the SB. Besides, Denver had a banged up and used up Moreno running the ball for them in the SB. Packers will have a young, healthy bruiser in Lacy on Thursday.

I believe Green Bay will be one of the better teams in the league this year. They’ll have an elite offense and most importantly they should have a much better D than last season. This team lost @ San Fran by 6 last year, @ Cincy by 4, and against San Fran in the Wild Card game by 3, a game where neither Rodgers nor Cobb were necessarily at full strength (both just came back from serious injuries). That’s very impressive to me as both San Fran and Cincy had terrific defenses last season and played a similar ball-control/strong-D type of a game that Seattle likes to implement. This year, Green Bay will be flat-out better than last year and Seattle will regress a bit. I believe 6 points is way too much here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one fall to 5.5 and maybe even lower by tomorrow. Should be a great game but no way will this one be a blowout from my perspective. Grab the points and enjoy the start of the NFL season!

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Baseball Crusher

San Diego Padres -145 over Arizona Dbacks

Tampa Bay Rays -130 over Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles -143 over Cincy Reds
Detroit Tigers -127 over Cleveland Indians

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Soccer Crusher

Bahia + Internacional OVER 2

This match is happening in Conmebol

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WinBetNfl

NFL

Seattle Seahawks - Green Bay Packers

Under 48,5

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Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Cleveland

The Indians look to follow up yesterday's 7-0 win over the Tigers and come into today's contest with a 5-0 record in Trevor Bauer's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Cleveland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.419; Milwaukee (Peralta) 12.954 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Arizona at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 13.941; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.400 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Under

Game 955-956: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 15.807; NY Yankees (Capuano) 14.658 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Over

Game 957-958: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.662; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.995 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Over

Game 959-960: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 16.282; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.226 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under

Game 961-962: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 14.494; Texas (Ross) 15.555 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under

Game 963-964: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santiago) 16.477; Minnesota (Gibson) 14.920 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Over

Game 965-966: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.834; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.332 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); Over

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'NFL Kick-Off'

The NFL season opens Thursday night in Seattle when Russell Wilson and the Seahawks host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Given the fact Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 24-8 SU record with a profitable 23-9 mark against the betting line including 12-5 ATS as a home favorite sportsbooks have the defending Champions 6.0 to 6.5-point favorite. Even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers taking snaps the Packers have a tough road ahead facing a Seahawks squad which lead the 2013 NFL campaign in scoring defense (14.4), total defense (273.6) and interceptions (28). Sifting through betting numbers Seahawks are a good choice as they're a sparkling 7-0 ATS at home in September under Pete Caroll. A deeper dive into the NFL Betting Database tells us Packers facing a defensive minded squad on the road and scoring =< 21 points are dangerous betting options as they're 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 situations. Also well to note, Packers were in the role of road underdog four times last season going 1-3 against the betting line and hit the field 1-5 last six taking points in enemy territory.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mariners on Wednesday and likes the Yankees on Thursday.

The deficit is 413 sirignanos.

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Maddux Sports

NCAAF

10* Texas San Antonio +7

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EZWINNERS

4* Green Bay Packers +5.5