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NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Indian Cowboy
Take #302 Texas San Antonio +7 over Arizona (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I will have five or six picks going this weekend for my rated service, but I wanted to get this one out there for everyone. If you wait, you can probably get 7.5 or even closer to 8 by game time as the public is noticeably heavy on Arizona. You can call me crazy but I actually believe Texas San Antonio is going to get Arizona absolute fits on Thursday Night Football. We would not be a bit surprised to see Texas San Antonio take an early half-time lead into this contest. Stop and think about as to why a Pac team would only be favored by a touchdown over a relative newcomer in Texas San Antonio on the national scene? It’s because Texas has and will always be a bed rock of talent, and this Texas San Antonio team is one of the best unknown teams in the country. They will be soon be known following this Primetime Thursday Night Contest. Note that these two teams played last year, with Arizona winning 38-13 at home and UTSA covered as a 25.5-point underdog, and now they find themselves as just a 7-point underdog at home a year later. With revenge, with Arizona coming off a big win and UTSA having 6 straight wins dating back to last year, look for this contest to be much closer than people expect, and I have UTSA falling within the touchdown spread here.
NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports
Take #461 Green Bay (+6) over Seattle (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I really hope you didn’t miss out on last week’s perfect 3-0, +$1,500 domination in college football. Now it is time for some NFL winners, including this Opening Night Play and my 7-Unit NFL Play on Sunday. I know, I know, Seattle is dominant at home. I also know that they are coming off a Super Bowl win, and that doesn’t bode well. Super Bowl champs have a ton of pressure on their shoulders as they try and repeat the success they had the previous season. Green Bay’s offense is strong enough to keep pace with that vaunted Seattle defense as Rodgers can control the air and Lacy can control the ground. I am not saying that Green Bay will win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Green Bay has won six of their last eight games versus Seattle, including five in Seattle. Take the road dog in this one as Green Bay will cover this line in an entertaining fashion.
Welcome to another edition of Wise Guy Wednesday. This is my weekly rundown of where the early pro dough is going in both college football and the NFL. The info is gathered from various sources, including local, contacts I’ve got offshore, as well as stateside books outside of Nevada.
It’s always worth mentioning that early week line moves, even those that are the most significant in terms of variance from the true opener, are not automatically wise guy moves. There are a few notable services that release early selections, and absolutely create line movement in the process. Plus, there are games that draw the vast majority of the early action, enough so that the prices change, but are not considered pro plays. Comments are from the sources, as I try to leave my own opinions out of this rundown. Let’s go!
302 UTSA was a major pro mover in Week One and the Roadrunners blasted Houston. It looks as though they’re getting bought again, although it’s nowhere near as heavy as last time.
310 Iowa State is getting some tepid support, although the general consensus seems to be that this might be more maneuvering to influence the number and that Kansas State could get bought back late. The public will be on the Wildcats on game day.
325 Arkansas State is drawing some sharp action. Some brief elaboration here. The biggest difference between Pros and Joes is that the latter segment of the betting population only remembers the last thing they saw and reacts accordingly. Tennessee just mauled a Utah State team that drew a load of sharp money last week. The public now wants nothing to do with going against the Vols. The pros are never as easily convinced and they’re taking the road dog right now.
331 New Mexico State is mildly popular with the wise guys. But this is an ugly game with zero marquee appeal, so even a trickle of pro money is going to impact the line, which it already has.
339 USC is getting play, and I’m getting varying opinions on what this number will do as the week progresses. One of my east coast guys is convinced this will be Clemson/Georgia all over again and that after getting dog action throughout the week, he is adamant there’s going to be a late flood of sharp dollars on Stanford.
341 Akron got hit hard early and the line in their game with Penn State has been the biggest mover of the week. But note this might not be true pro money. Direct comment from one contact was “I knew we’d get all dog play early as everyone wants to play against Penn State off the long trip and that crazy finish. We’re not stupid. That’s already built into the line.”
352 Oregon took sharp action early. The consensus is that the squares will buy the dog here, and the pros are going to come back and take more Ducks later.
383 Air Force has already moved from dog to favorite and the expectation is that this number might keep going up. In other words, this is one of those if you snoozed, you lose games.
Moving to the NFL:
469 Jaguars figured to be an auto-play for the sharps as they always grab doubles if available in Week One.
478 Texans are looking like a popular pro side, although it’s not overwhelming.
479 Titans is clearly shaping up as the pros/joes battleground game of the week with the sharps hitting the dog in a big way. Opinion among my contacts is that the amateurs are going to bet on KC on game day.
484 Buccaneers is the other very hot pro choice to open the week, and Tampa Bay is also taking public money as well. Thus, there’s little value to be had on that matchup as that ship has already sailed, so to speak.
NEWSLETTER College Football Prediction From Raphael Esparza
Take ‘Under’ 56 – Arizona at Texas San Antonio (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
I wanted to give this free total winner to start off a huge weekend for me that includes two 7-Unit Plays in the WNBA and College Football. Yes I know the Arizona Wildcats ran all over the UNLV defense, but the Roadrunners of UTSA are not UNLV! UTSA are coming off a big road upset win last weekend over Houston, and the Cougars didn’t score their first touchdown until late in the 4th quarter. UTSA had six takeaways in that game, and the Roadrunners are allowing 10.4 points per game in their last 5 games. If Arizona can spread the ball early and UTSA controls the line I see another low-scoring game and I see a very close game. I see Arizona squeaking this game out, but I don’t see Arizona scoring at will like they did last week against a weak UNLV defense. Texas San Antonio is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 nonconference games and a perfect 0-4 O/U following a SU win.
PACKERS +12.5 / PACKERS SEAHAWKS – OVER 40 -120 *4* BEST BET
Do not be surprised if this Packers team goes into Seattle tonight and “shocks the world.” Green Bay wants to play a very fast paced offense this year as they are built to do just that and they may cause some problems for the league’s best defense. Green Bay will score – as long as they don’t get run all over by the tune of 35+ points, we expect this ticket this cash with ease.
Green Bay is 84-74 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points Green Bay is 32-20 ATS vs. NFC West Division Opponents Green Bay is 63-53 ATS when playing as an underdog
10* Play Texas-San Antonio +7 over Arizona (Top NCAA Play)
Arizona is 47-75 ATS when playing as a favorite Arizona is 31-42 ATS when playing in the month of September Arizona is 42-68 ATS coming off a win against the spread in their last game
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