9-7-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

NFL Play of the Day - Redskins +3

RG III is really looking forward to the regular season to recover from his terrible season last year. He has put in a ton of work and now have an awesome weapon in Jackson. Houston is looking to rebound from a terrible season but this is not a good spot for them as they only have covered 1 of their last 8 as home favorites against NFC teams. Houston lost ATS every time they were favored last season, they have to show me they can cover when laying points, until they do I am going against them.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne root

no limit jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club

NFL Selections


#466 ST.Louis -3
#475 Buffalo +7
#477 Washington +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans (-3) 1:00 ET

After the positive numbers authored by Houston in the 2012 season, much was expected of the Texans in 2013. They proceed to author a 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS log, making them the biggest underachiever in the NFL last season. Paying the price was QB Schaub (now Oakland) and former HC Kubiak (now Washington) who is now replaced by HC O’Brien, who coached Penn State the last two seasons. At the signal caller spot will be QB Fitzpatrick (Tennessee LY). As you can imply from the above analysis, the improvement will not be immediate. Washington breaks in new HC Gruden, but there is stability at the signal caller spot with RG3, now healthier, after his ACL injury of two years ago. Aggressive Washington defense may cause some havoc against the still-developing Houston attack. From a technical perspective, know that in the last 4 years, teams who won 5 or fewer games the previous season are just 11-29 ATS in early season action. Make the Redskins your Dog of the Day!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LJ Consulting Coach

Bills +7
Texans -3
Colts +8
Vikings +3.5
Chiefs -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Oregon on Saturday and likes the Browns on Sunday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Rays lower Hondo’s deficit

Hondo made another assault on the dirty digits Saturday when the Rays performed to expectation, bringing down the Birds to reduce the number to 1,555 templetons.

Sunday: It wouldn’t be right for the Yankees to lose on Jeter Day, and Mr. Aitch doesn’t want to be wrong, so he will put 10 units on Greene. Also, he doesn’t see how he can go wrong with Wainwright, so he will throw 10 more at the Cards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, playing on Sunday
202-95 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 68.3 units )
43-26 this year. ( 62.3% | 7.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at NY YANKEES
KANSAS CITY is 36-16 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (2.9)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Week 1 NFL

September 4th thru 7th 2014

These are all of the NFL plays that I have pending for week 1. Once again, do not expect to see me with this many plays every week. Most weeks I usually have about three plays on an average Sunday, but week one makes for many good spots and some weak lines. The only other play that I may add would be a play on Carolina plus the points to shoot for a middle. I'm going to continue to watch the line and if it gets to Carolina +3 I may jump on it. I will be in Vegas this weekend to be sure to follow me on Twitter or get on my text list for any added plays that I may have. I will update the website on Tuesday when I return. Good luck!

-EZ

5* Tampa Bay Bucs +2

Carolina had a great turn around season last year posting a 12-4 record, but I expect regression this season. Since 2002 there have been thirty six teams that posted ten or more wins following a losing season like the Panthers did last year and out of those thirty six teams, twenty nine of them regressed by at least one win the following year. Carolina is a whole different team on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Cam Newton had off season ankle surgery and he has a whole new cast of receivers to get used to playing with since Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are all gone. Carolina will be counting on a rookie, Calvin Benjamin who is still very raw to be their top receiver. To make matters worse, the Panthers already shaky offensive line will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross who has retired. Tampa Bay is a team on the rise. New head coach Lovie Smith will improve a Tampa Bay defense that was near the bottom of the league last season. Star cornerback Darrelle Revis is gone, but Tampa Bay snagged two of the top defensive free agents with defensive end Michael Johnson from Cincinnati and cornerback Alterraun Verner from Tennessee who is a better fit in Lovie Smith's zone defense. The Bucs also added defensive tackle Clinton McDonald from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Offensively I also expect the Bucs to be much improved after finishing at the bottom of the league in total offense last year. Former Bear's quarterback Josh McCown will be under center after a huge year as a backup to Jay Cutler last season. McCown had a lot of success last year throwing to big receivers in Chicago and that is exactly what he will have here in Tampa with Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans along with rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Bucs will also have a healthy running back in third year player Doug Martin who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and also Charles Sims who has a diverse skill set coming out of the backfield. The Buc's offensive line will also be improved with the addition of center Evan Dietrich-Smith and left tackle Anthony Collins. Carolina had one of the best defensive units in the league last year, but if their offense struggles to move the ball and keep them off the field they won't be nearly as effective this season. The Panthers defense also suffered losses in the secondary as Mike Mitchell ( signed with Pittsburgh) is a critical loss at safety and Captain Munnerlyn's (signed with Minnesota) presence will be especially missed in the slot. Also star defensive end Greg Hardy added to the off season distractions as he was arrested following an alleged incident of domestic violence and there is a good chance he won't play in this game. This also a very bad technical spot for the Panthers as playoff teams laying points in week one against a non playoff team have been huge money burners. This is a big home game for the Bucs and Lovie Smith to get off to a good start and Carolina has lost their first road game of the season the last five years. I like Tampa in this one. Take the points.


4* Carolina Panthers +3

I' going for a middle with this play on Carolina. If you don't have a play on Tampa Bay plus the points pending, don't play Carolina.


4* Washington Redskins +3

I'm jumping on this play now while it's still at the key number of three. The Texans looked horrible in their first pre-season game against Arizona. We should all remember that it is only the pre-season and we shouldn't over react, but this Texans team needs a lot of work. The defense is still adjusting to a new scheme and the secondary will need a lot of work. On offense you can see why wide receiver Andre Johnson wanted out because the quarterback situation is a mess. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just not a quality starting quarterback in this league and Case Keenum and Tom Savage don't bring much improve to the position either. At this point Matt Schaub would be looking very attractive to still have on the roster. Washington is not a playoff team in my opinion, but they are much further along than Houston. The Skins have RGIII at quarterback which is a huge advantage compared to the Texans signal callers This Texans team needs to learn how to win again and being favored against anyone to start the season is asking way too much. Jump on this line before it drops as I will be very surprised if you will be able to get Washington +3 at kickoff in a few weeks. Take the points.


3* Atlanta Falcons +3

This is a HUGE game for Atlanta as the Falcons will look to bounce back from last years disaster and become a factor in the NFL once again. The Falcons are a healthy this season with wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones at 100%. Running back Stephen Jackson is also healthy and Atlanta also added another game breaker in Devin Hester. The Saints swept the series last year, but both of those games were very close. Atlanta has the reputation has being a soft team, but they have made some moves in free agency to help with that on both sides of the ball. I love the Saints chances this season. They have improved their defense with the signing of Jairus Byrd and also added another offensive weapon with rookie Brandon Cooks, but the Saints still need to prove it to me on the road where they are just 2-9-1 against the spread in their last twelve games. This is a much bigger game for the Falcons and with the public money pouring in on New Orleans I will gladly take the points.


3* Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5

Philadelphia put up some huge numbers on the offensive side of the ball last season and they should be explosive once again but laying double digit points in the NFL is never a good idea, even if it is against one of the worst teams in the league. This is also a very bad technical spot to back Philadelphia. In week one, playoff teams that are favored against non playoff teams have been some of the worst bets that could be made failing to cover about 75% of the time. The Eagles have a lot of weapons on offense, but Nick Foles will have to adjust to life without wide receiver DeShawn Jackson who is now with the Redskins. As I'm playing this game the Eagles have only played one pre-season game and Foles was shaky. I already expected a bit of regression this season so we will have to see how that plays out. The Jags also upgraded their defense over the off season with the additions of defensive ends Chris Clemons and Red Bryant who both played for head coach Gus Bradley when he was the defensive coordinator at Seattle. On the offensive side Jacksonville still has questions at quarterback and it is yet to be seen if Chad Henne or Blake Bortles will be under center to start this game but they have a pair of explosive weapons in wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson. Both playmakers are capable of becoming top caliber NFL receivers and the Jags also have their top returning wide receiver in to go along with the rookies in the steady Cecil Shorts. The addition of running back Toby Gerhart from Minnesota should also give a boost to the running game that has not produced the last couple years with a banged up Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield. I like Jacksonville to keep this one close, take the points.


3* Baltimore Ravens -1.5

Baltimore made some nice improvements in the off season. Former Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is the new offensive coordinator and quarterback Joe Flacco has a new weapon to help the passing game with wide receiver Steve Smith who came over from the Panthers and the Ravens also upgraded their offensive line. Dennis Pita being healthy is also huge for this offense that relies heavily on the tightend. The Ravens also picked up former Texan Owen Daniels who will provide even more depth at the tightend positions. The Ravens defense also should be improved in the second year of the post Ray Lewis era. The Bengals are a talented team, but they brand new offensive and defensive coordinators. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton will also have a rookie center snapping him the ball this season. The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight meetings and I look for that to continue in this game. Lay the points.

3* Miami Dolphins +4.5

This is a huge game for the Dolphins as that organization wants to take the next step and prove that they are a contender in this division. I see a lot of value with Miami in this spot. Last season the Dolphins were a small favorite at home against these Patriots and now they are catching points. This is another one of these profitable spots to back the underdog that didn't make the playoffs last year against a playoff team in week one. Miami should be improved this season. Quarterback Ryan Tannahill has had the whole off season and training camp to gel with wide receiver Mike Wallace who I expect to have a much more productive season than his first in Miami. The Dolphins have pass rushers to get after Tom Brady with defensive end's Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon who combined for 20 sacks last season and they also beefed up their secondary in the off season as well. New England is going to be one of the top teams in the AFC once again this year but they are usually overvalued by the Vegas odds makers. New England has won ten straight season openers but they are just 5-5 against the spread in those games. I expect this one to be decided by a field goal one way or the other. Take the points.

3* Dallas Cowboys +6

I think this is going to be a very interesting game. San Francisco is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season, but I have to admit they did not look very good in the pre-season. The starting offense for the 49ers looked bad and could not find the end zone. I expect this group to come together, but it might take a few weeks and that is a good thing for Dallas. The Cowboys defense looks like they will once again be one of the worst in the NFL. They might have a chance to play well against the struggling 49ers offense, but then again they might be just the think to get the San Francisco offense on track! I really like the Dallas offense in this match up to keep us within the number against a 49ers defense that will be at less than 100% to start to season due to injuries and/or suspension. Dallas have been an automatic fade for me as a favorite, but as an underdog they have been solid. This is also another case of a playoff team laying points against a non playoff team in week one which has been a cash cow for the dogs. I think San Fran will be lucky to escape Big D with a win. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Jets -5.5
Rams -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U
2014 NFL Football Sunday Kickoff Total of the Year!!!!!
New England/Miami over 46 1/2


Early NFL Best Bets
Cleveland/Pittsburgh under 41 1/2
Jacksonville/Philadelphia under 52
Oakland/New York under 40 1/2
Tennessee/Kansas City over 43 1/2


2014 Sunday Night Football Kickoff Total of the Year!!!!!
Indianapolis/Denver under 55


Late NFL Best Bets
Carolina/Tampa Bay over 38
San Francisco/Dallas under 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

3-Unit Play. Take #462 Seattle (-5.5) over Green Bay (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 4)
4-Unit Play. Take #463 New Orleans (-3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
5-Unit Play. Take #476 Chicago (-6.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.5 Buffalo at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
5-Unit Play. Take #468 Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take #473 Cincinnati (+1.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)
3-Unit Play. Take #477 Washington (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinBetNfl

No #1
Pittsburgh Steelers - Cleveland Browns
Over 40
Odd: 1.80

No #2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Carolina Panthers
Over 37
Odd: 1.80

No #3
New York Jets - Oakland Raiders
Over 39
Odd: 1.85

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

5* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5

3* Chicago Bears -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

NFL

4* Denver Broncos -7.5

4* Dallas Cowboys +4.5