9-7-14

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Raphael Esparza (Vegas Sports Informer)

5* Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

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Just Cover Baby

5 {478} Houston -3
4 {464} Atlanta +3
4 {473} Cincinnati +1
3 {470} Philadelphia -10
3 {487} Indianapolis +7.5

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Mike Missanelli

NFL

Eagles

Steelers

Texans

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

NFL

3* Denver Broncos

3* Baltimore Ravens

2* Pittsburgh Steelers

2* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2* "Over" Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos

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SPORTSWAGERS

NFL

Buffalo @ CHICAGO

Buffalo +7 -110 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

It will soon become obvious as to what our approach is in Week 1. We’re playing against popular teams that come into the season overhyped and overvalued. That applies to the Bears. Chicago is the trendy pick to win the NFC North while also being another one of those fantasy football gold teams, as Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Jay Cutler are expected to put up monster numbers this season. That may all come to pass but you’ll be paying a premium to wager on the Bears in Week 1 and likely beyond, which is something we seldom recommend.

There is virtually no hype whatsoever surrounding Buffalo. The Bills stumble into this season after an unimpressive preseason. Sammy Watkins has sore ribs and EJ Manuel's terrible preseason has forced the team to turn to a $5 million backup plan in Kyle Orton. However, we’re not going to put much emphasis on any preseason record or performance. What we know for sure is that the Bills are deep on both lines. They could potentially be a great running team, which will open up the passing game. Expectations for the Bills are low while expectations for the Bears are high. Chicago’s defense, once feared, is no longer at that same level. The market has moved this number from +6½ to +7 and that’s a nice number to be on for a Bills team that is well-positioned to stay well-within this range.


Oakland @ N.Y. JETS

Oakland +5½ -110 over N.Y. JETS

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Not long ago it looked like the Jets’ Week 1 starters at cornerback would be Dee Milliner and Dimitri Patterson. So much for that plan. Coach Rex Ryan announced that Milliner won't be playing against the Raiders. Milliner, the ninth overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, has been held out of practice since suffering a high-ankle sprain on Aug. 10. Patterson won't be playing in the game because he's no longer on the team. That means New York's starting corners will likely be Antonio Allen and Darrin Walls. The two defensive backs have four career starts between them at cornerback. Geno Smith is still unproven at QB, yet bettors are flocking to lay points with the Jets. What we’re suggesting is that it’s not that the public is enamored with New York but more a case of public money being fed up with Oakland. Furthermore, the Raiders were only 1-7 on the road last year (4-12 overall) while the Jets posted a 6-2 mark at home. Based on that and based on the public’s indictment of the Raiders, we get a decent number here on the dog.

The Raiders signed a host of veteran talent in free agency, including QB Matt Schaub and DE Antonio Smith from the Texans, along with DE Justin Tuck from the Giants, as well as several other veterans. In the draft they seized OLB Khahil Mack with the #5 pick, and QB Derek Carr in the 2nd round. If the Raiders can pull all of these new players together, and make them work, their foundation of talent could make them the surprise team in 2014. The Raiders are going with rookie Derek Carr who has looked sharp in meaningless preseason play. They have a running back duo of Maurice Drew Jones and Darren McFadden, two guys that have shown flashes of brilliance in the past and who will both be playing with huge chips on their respective shoulders. We’re not suggesting that the Raiders are going to be a factor but we are suggesting that Derek Carr might be the best QB this team has employed in years and if he gets off to a good start, momentum can carry this veteran team a long way. The Jets were favored three times in 16 games last year. They were favored by three or less in all three games and now they’re being asked to spot a number that they have not spotted since December of 2012 when they were a 6-point choice over Arizona. The Jets won that game 7-6 and while they do possess a great defense, they have many injuries and unanswered questions and they don’t deserve to be in this price range just yet. Upset possibility.


Carolina @ TAMPA BAY

Carolina +129 over TAMPA BAY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.58)

The Panthers are featured in our over/under win totals (we went under 8½) for the season but we can’t let that prevent us from playing them when the situation warrants it. Carolina opened up in June as a -1 point favorite but money started coming in on the Buccaneers in early August and it hasn’t stopped since. So why all the love for the Bucs? Well, the Buccaneers plowed the coaching soil and brought in Lovie Smith for head coach and Jeff Tedford as the new offensive coordinator. Tedford was the long-time head coach of the Cal Bears and was noted as a quarterback guru with Aaron Rodgers his crowning glory. That’s a nice start for the Bucs but it’s likely going to take some time to make it all work. Josh McCown is the new starter which seems a curious move since most teams would not elect to rebuild around a 35-year-old career back-up on his fifth NFL team while the younger Mike Glennon sits on the bench and assumes the #2 role again. Frankly, we don’t see an improvement on either side of the ball for these Bucs but the early line movement suggests that the public and or/media does.

That work in progress offense for Tampa is up against it here against a Carolina team that knows a thing or two about defense. The concern for the Panthers is that Cam Newton exploded on the scene as a rookie but has cooled down the last two years. He ran for 585 yards and five scores in 2013 but only passed for 3379 yards and 24 scores to a receiver corps that no longer exists. Newton’s decline in passing is expected to continue now that Brandon LaFell is in New England and Steve Smith went to Baltimore. The Panthers did draft Kelvin Benjamin but the rest of the receivers seem to have been picked up at the end of the day from a garage sale. Still, with Tampa’s poor secondary and many other questions, we’re leaning to the Panthers here in a big way. Newton is dangerous with his legs and he could have one of those rare 300 + yards passing day. These Bucs still suffer from many afflictions and they have no business laying weight to a team with a far superior defense than they possess. Panthers outright.


Minnesota @ ST. LOUIS

ST. LOUIS -3½ +102 over Minnesota

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Minnesota is gaining steam in the market while the Rams are losing steam and that sets this one up nicely for Rams’ backers. We’re one of them. The Vikings start anew with the Bengals old defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer now leading the show in Minnesota. He tabbed Norv Turner to run the offense and that usually brings good things to bear for running backs and tight ends if not the entire team. But the personnel remained the same other than drafting Teddy Bridgewater with their 1.32 pick. Christian Ponder dropped to #3 on the depth chart while Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback for now. Bridgewater was genuinely impressive in preseason and will become the starter at some point. That makes Cassel a lame duck of sorts but expect Bridgewater to get the call once the season starts to head the wrong way. The Vikings don’t travel well and went 0-7-1 last year away from home. An all new offensive scheme means the first road game is likely to be a challenge for the Vikes particularly against a solid defense like the Rams.

We’re pretty sure that the money coming in on the Vikes is more about the public fading the Rams after St. Louis lost their #1 QB, Sam Bradford for the year. The loss of Bradford sent the Rams scrambling but finding nobody that attractive in free agency. They are now relying on Shaun Hill, who is on his fourth NFL team at the age of 34 and in his 14th year. HC Jeff Fisher says he is committed to Hill but mostly from a lack of alternatives. Austin Davis is the #2 quarterback but has no NFL experience in his two previous years in the league. When a key player like Bradford goes down it instantly gives the players a chip on their shoulder because they get written off by the media and want to prove everyone wrong. That’s the mentality for the Rams in Week 1 and we’ll look for the defense to step up big and provide great field position throughout. Remember, the Vikings defense was one of the very worst last season and we don’t see where they have improved. An overreaction by the market to the loss of Bradford has us spotting the points.


New Orleans @ ATLANTA

ATLANTA +3 -107 over New Orleans

As we look at the first Sunday of the year in the NFL, we’ll apply our buy-low, sell-high angle to several teams. Week 1 lines are largely based on last year’s results, which works to our advantage. With free agency, coaching changes, trades and all the turnover in personnel in the NFL, it provides us with several good opportunities. Public bettors are likely to bet against last year's bad teams early in the season, which causes the odd makers to react by moving point spreads toward the perceived better team in each matchup. That helps to create added value on perceived bad teams and it’s something we’ll look to take advantage of.

Does anyone give the Falcons a chance here? When the lines first came out in early summer, the Falcons opened as a 2-point favorite but the money that poured in on the Saints caused that number to move five points in the Saints’ favor. With fantasy football being so popular and the Saints being considered “fantasy gold”, New Orleans now becomes one of, if not the most popular team in the NFL. The Saints boast one of the most powerful offenses that returns intact with all coaches and players and the only difference is a defense that should be even better. There is more hype on the Saints this season than just about any team in the NFL, which makes it extremely difficult to pull the trigger against them in the first week with an Atlanta team that went 4-12 last year. Furthermore, Atlanta has lost five of its last six games at home to New Orleans. The entire betting world is spotting the points and to us, that’s a huge red flag.

The Falcons lost both of their hot wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones last season to injury. They will both be returning this year. They also added OT Jake Matthews in the draft to give Matt Ryan some needed protection. In the draft they also picked up a free safety, a defensive end and three outside linebackers to strengthen their defense. They also drafted a running back (Devonta Freeman) to share the carries with starter Steven Jackson in the offense. Despite the injuries to many of his weapons in 2013, Matt Ryan quietly had a tremendous season. He passed for 4515 yards and 26 touchdowns while rarely getting to use Roddy White or Julio Jones. Home dogs in Week 1 are almost always live and with Atlanta’s stock so low and New Orleans’ stock so high, this becomes the best buy-low, sell-high value bet of the week. If you are on board with this wager, wait until late Sunday morning to make it because we are almost sure to get 3½ or 4. We’ll update this one late Sunday morning with our official wager.


Cleveland @ PITTSBURGH

Cleveland +7 -110 over PITTSBURGH

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The new era begins for the Browns in what recently has been the annual purge of everybody and everything. Realtors must love the Browns. Mike Pettine comes over from the Bills where he was the defensive coordinator and he tabbed Kyle Shanahan to run the offense as he did in Washington where he was last run out of town in their own purge. There has been so much change, again, that it is hardly fair to establish any expectations with so much unknown. The Browns lost 20-7 in Pittsburgh last year. Those Browns seemed better than these Brownies. Cleveland's offseason and preseason was dominated by negative press. Bettors have reacted by jumping all over Pittsburgh, causing this number to move up from its opening line of +5 to its current line of +6½. Expect +7 by game time so wait until Sunday to make this wager because the public wants no part of this circus in Cleveland. It all looks ugly for the Brownies but once again the media blows everythig out of proportion and that greatly affects public perception.

That leaves bettors grabbing for Pittsburgh. You know, the same Steelers that ended 8-8 last year with very few exceptions. Ben Roethlisberger gets worse every year, not better. Long been one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league, the Steelers are moving to a more no-huddle offense this year, which helps up the tempo and slow down the rush. The league has caught up to Pittsburgh and to Mike Tomlin. Tomlin didn’t get much help in the off-season. He still operates a team with very few upgrades. Tomlin’s coaching decisions get worse every season because the team he coaches gets worse. Big Ben is not like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or other elite QB’s in that he doesn’t spend the time in the film room trying to improve his own game or the overall play of the team. Said one former backup QB, “Roethisberger doesn’t even look our way in practice. He’s not very approachable and isn’t interested in helping. He’s the first one out when practice ends”. That’s not the first time we’ve heard stuff like that about Big Ben. Contrary to public belief, the Steelers are not the same model franchise that they’ve been since the 70’s. They’ve been in regression mode for three years running and it starts in the front office and runs deep from there. What we have here is a gross overreaction to Cleveland’s offseason and preseason shortcomings but Cleveland still has a loaded defense and a very capable QB in Brian Hoyer. This has to be considered one of the premier buy-low/sell high propositions on the card and we’re all over it.


We're passing on Sunday's two CFL games.

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Baltimore @ TAMPA BAY

Baltimore -102 over TAMPA BAY

(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA and some very average outings before the All-Star break. He has been a lot better ever since with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 47% groundball rate. Those gains would be more noticeable if not for an unlucky 35% hit rate. Norris’s surge in strikeouts is supported by his 10% swing and miss % since the break so he’s a solid proposition to keep churning out strong games the rest of the way. Over his last five starts covering 26 innings, Norris has a BB/K split of 5/26 with a line-drive rate of 14%, a groundball rate of 48% and a xERA of 3.25. Norris can deal it but we’re not so sure about Jeremy Hellickson.

Hellickson is rated a high risk for a tough home outing against one of the American League’s best road offenses. Hellickson (5.32 home ERA this season) is coming off back-to-back games in which he did not make it out of the fifth inning against both Toronto (5 ER in 3.1 IP) and these same Orioles (4 ER in 4.1 IP). Hellickson was also tagged for three bombs in those two games. After three years of outperforming xERA with favorable hit and strand percentages, luck has predictably swung the other way against him this year. Hellickson’s weak 34%/45% groundball/fly-ball split is another troublesome trait in his profile. The Orioles are in one of their hot zones (5.6 RPG, .828 OPS since Aug. 25) and they always seem to be in a hot zone against Hellickson (.822 OPS in 220+ PA). The O’s figure to get to Hellickson again and in the process put away the Rays early.


Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEES

Kansas City +104 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

We ran into some hard luck yesterday with the Royals when Danny Duffy was removed from the game after throwing one pitch. One pitch is an official start and the Royals were forced to being in career stiff Liam Hendriks. Naturally we lost that game but it’s not going to prevent us from coming right back on the Royals here against Shane Greene. An addition to a Yankees rotation that re-tooled midseason due to various injuries, farmhand Shane Greene has given the Yankees some very good innings since his July promotion. Only problem is, this is the same guy with a career 4.39 ERA in over 500 career minor league innings. Are we sure this is the same guy? Greene has had no problem inducing swings and misses versus major league competition. His K rate has hovered around 8 K’s/9 throughout his minor league career, but his current swing and miss rate of 10% at this level was unexpected. That said, you don't spend five years in Single-A without your share of warts, and his competition thus far has been on the light side (BOS twice, TEX, TAM, CHW). Nothing in his current profile says an implosion is imminent but the small sample size corollary is in play here and we’re seeing signs of big trouble. Greene’s line-drive rate of 27% is high, which suggests he's been fairly hittable. This is an ongoing problem of his, as he allowed nearly 10 hits per game on average in the minors. His WHIP of 1.36 is higher than the league average and in his last three starts Greene has been taken yard four times. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, Greene has an oppBA of .306, an ERA of 5.40 and a BB/K split of 11/22 in 26 innings. It would appear that the book is out on him now that he’s made 11 starts.

Royals starter Yordano Ventura was skipped in his rotation turn on Aug. 27 because of tightness in the middle of his back. It was later reported Ventura's MRI showed inflammation and fluid but no damage and as a result he missed just one start. He returned to the rotation on Sept 1 and allowed just five hits in 6.1 frames against the Rangers while striking out 7. K.C. has won six of Ventura’s last seven starts. He’s now 11-9 with an elite 18 pure quality starts in 25 tries, a 3.38 ERA and 132 K’s overall in 153 innings. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) has top of the rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Everything in Ventura’s profile is heading the right way including swinging strike rate, first pitch strike rate, groundball percentage (52% over his last six starts) and most importantly xERA. As a pooch against the light hitting Yanks, Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value here.

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Vegas Winning Crew

MLB 50 Dime Play - Saint Louis

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GoodFella

NFL Divisional GOW 3* on NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

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GoodFella

2* Two Team NFL 7 pt Teaser of the Week

Chicago pk and Tampa Bay +5

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Betting As A Business

NFL
Baltimore -1 (-115) / Cincinnati 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON Baltimore)

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Bones best bet

vikings @ rams under 43 -105 *2*

saints @ falcons over 52 -105 *2*

teaser - 7.5 points - 4 teams - ties reduce
saints +4.5 / steelers pk / patriots +4 / giants lions o39.5 +215 *3*

teaser - 8 points - 4 teams - tied reduce
saints falcons o44 / niners +4 / broncos -1 / colts broncos o47 +185 *3*

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Indian Cowboy


6-unit St Louis -3.5
3-unit Arizona -3

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Chris James Sports

Eagles -10.5
Chiefs -3
Bengals +2

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Brandon Lang

100 DIME NFL MONEY MOVE
#2 IN A ROW
Dallas

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HE WAGER WIRE / Joey Buckets

26195 NOR Reg. Season Wins o9½ (-170) 2u

25361 NOR Win NFC South (+105) 1u

Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins u8.5 (-150) 2u

Cowboys Regular Season Wins Total u8 (-200) 2u

Colts Win AFC South (-145) 2u

1u Bears/Bills u48.5 (-110)

1u Browns/Steelers o41 (-110)

1u Bengals/Ravens u43.5 (-110)

1u Vikings +4 (-110)