9-11-14

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THE CAPTAIN PLAYS

1* Houston +17.5

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB (5-star or 5-unit)
(903) Arizona +180
(906) Philadelphia +130
(909) Miami +140
(918) Texas +170
(921) Minnesota (GM2) +150

*Listed Pitchers

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Plays of The Day

1 Unit La Tech/North Texas over 47.5 (NCAAF)
1 Unit Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (NFL)
1 Unit BYU -17.5 (NCAAF)

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Dave Essler NFL

Baltimore ML -140

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Spartan

LA Tech +4

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Tiger NFL

Baltimore ML -127

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Just Cover Baby


2* Baltimore -2½
2* Pitt/Balt Over 44

1* LA Tech +4
1* LA Tech/N. Texas Over 48½
1* BYU -17½

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Stevewins Added BYU
Pittsburgh +3 MAX PLAY
North Texas -3 Buy the hook
BYU 1st half -11

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Real Swoop

La Tech +4
Ravens -2.5

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Kelso

Under Pitt / Balt
Over BYU

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VegasButcher - Washington Nationals -117

Mets won for the 4th time in a row yesterday and 7th time in the last 8 games. Of course these wins came against MIA, CIN, and COL, as they’ll now step up in class to face the BEST team in the NL. Tanner is a tough matchup for the Wright-less Mets lineup, as he possesses a strong fastball/slider combo, to go with a very good curve and changeup. Mets rank 28th against the FB, 26th against the SL, and 23rd against the CB. As far as Roarke pitching on the road, I really don’t have too many concerns there. I know his road ERA of 3.4 is higher than his 2.5 home mark, but advanced stats tell us that there’s virtually no difference.

Home: 2.7 K/BB; 17% K%; 0.7 HR/9; 3.6/3.9 FIP/xFIP
Away: 4.7 K/BB; 20% K%; 0.8 HR/9; 3.4/3.6 FIP/xFIP

I expect Roarke to be just fine against this 21st ranked Mets lineup. On the other side, we have Colon, who’s been very good this year. In his last 2 starts though, Colon has recorded only 4 K’s through 12.1 innings with 2 HR’s allowed. He had a 5.0 and 5.1 xFIP’s in those starts and that was against mediocre lineups of PHI and CIN. Cincy ranks 20th against the ‘fastball’, while Philly is 29th, and yet Colon struggled against them regardless. This is a pitcher who throws his fastball 83% of the time. Well, Nationals rank 10th on the season against the pitch. Over the last 30-days they’re 2nd in MLB against it. I know Colon dominated the Nats on 08/13, but in that outing neither Span nor Werth were starting. These are two of Washington’s best hitters, and of course both will be available today. Finally I want to point out that Mets will be at a disadvantage in the later innings due to over-worked BP. Their key relievers all pitched in 3 of the last 4 days, while Washington’s 5th ranked bullpen is well rested. Nats are 6-0 @ NYM this season and 21-4 in the last few years playing there, and I really like their chances of a win tonight.

Play #2 - Boston Red Sox +118

Royals are coming off a very tough, playoff-like series @ Detroit, needing to win last night’s game in order to salvage something out of the series. They did and now will face the most disappointing team in all of baseball tonight. Of course the difference here is that there’s a large discrepancy in the two starters. Boston will have Buchholz on the mound, who is my 29th ranked starter in the last 30-days. Buchholz was coming into the 2014 season off a major shoulder surgery, and of course he was a disaster early on in the year. In the first half of the year his FIP was 4.6 and he was allowing 1.4 HR/9. In the 2nd half, his FIP dropped to 3.4 with the HR/9 rate being a superb 0.41. Just in August and September, his FIP is at 2.9 as he’s allowed only 2 HR’s in his last 49.2 innings of work or a 0.36 HR/9 rate. The difference is that he’s finally regained his velocity, something that made him such an effective pitcher last season. Buchholz faced the Royals on 07/18, and though he did give up 10 hits and 4 ER’s in 6.0 innings, we have to be careful here with undervaluing his performance in that one. Majority of the hits were singles as most weren’t even hit very well. Buchholz registered a 2.8 SIERA in that game with a slick 63% GB-rate. A high .417 BABIP led to some of those runs being scored, but overall Buchholz pitched extremely well. I expect a similar strong outing tonight from him. Of course opposite him, is one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. Liam Hendriks has a career 5.9 ERA with a 5.2 FIP. His 4.4 ERA and 4.7 FIP as a starter are better this year but of course the sample-size is fairly low. I’ll grab a better starter in this game as I like Boston to end their 4-game losing streak tonight.

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Maddux Sports

10* Houston/BYU over 57

NFL Opinion – Baltimore -2.5

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LegitNelson

Louisiana tech +3.5
Houston +17

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THE WAGER WIRE / Joey Buckets

Ravens ML -145 1u

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Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

UNDER 7 – Tampa Bay vs NY Yankees