9-12-14

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TOM BARTON

2* Astros vs Angels – Under 8.5

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary MLB Pick for September 12th, 2014

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Time: Friday 09/12 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -149 (moneyline) at BetOnline

The Washington Nationals have just about put the NL East crown out of reach with an 8.5 game lead over Atlanta. There is still work to be done as they hold a slender lead over the LA Dodgers for the top record in the NL, and subsequent home field advantage in the NL playoffs. The Nationals have made Citi Field a home away from home as they have dominated here for an extended period of time. They have claimed victory in their last 12 here, and over a longer period they own a 26-4 mark here. They go with Gio Gonzalez who has not let up vs. a losing team where the Nats own a 31-11 record in his last 42 against one. The Mets paying the price with Gee on the mound when facing a team that scored 2 or fewer their last time out at a woeful 1-9 in his last 10 starts in this situation. Make the play on Washington.

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The Real Swoop

1* Baylor -33

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James Jones

NCAAF-Over 69 Baylor/Buffalo University-107...(2*)

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Prophet Plays

3* Cardinals with Adam Wainwright -1.5 runs

What has made Wainwright such a good run line play this season is the fact the Cards - a streaky offensive team that carries a 17-inning scoreless streak into this series opener - have generally given him strong run support. The team is 9-3 in his Busch Stadium outings this season and seven of those nine wins have come by at least two-run margins. Wainwright is 6-1 lifetime against Colorado with a 1.50 ERA and he's won each of his last four starts against the Rockies, who have been shutout in 19 straight innings as they arrive in St. Louis. St. Louis, winners of five in a row at home, is on a 19-8 series roll, including 11-3 in the last 14 at Busch Stadium. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa is one of those rare hurlers who actually pitches better in the thin air at Coors than on the road. He is 9-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 14 home starts this season versus 4-9 with a 5.29 EA in 15 road outings. Those numbers mirror his production from a year ago when he went 10-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 14 home outings but 6-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 16 road assignments. The Rockies opened their current road trip with three straight losses to the Mets and they were shutout in the final two games of the series. They've lost 31 of 36 on the road since a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco way back in mid-June.

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VegasButcher

Washington Nationals -150

Dillon Gee has a 3.7 ERA which is lower than Gio Gonzalez’ 3.8, but not all ERA’s are created equal. When we check the advanced stats, there’s a clear difference between the two pitches:

GG: 24% K-rate; 0.7 HR/9; .298 BABIP & 72% LOB%; 3.8 ERA; 3.3/3.5/3.6 FxS
DG: 17% K-rate; 1.3 HR/9; .246 BABIP & 78% LOB%; 3.7 ERA; 4.6/4.2/4.3 FxS

As you can see Gee has a much lower K-rate, higher HR/9 rate, and of course his FxS is much higher than Gio’s. The low BABIP and higher than usual strand-rate are responsible for his ERA being surpassed, but his -0.9 E-F (12th highest in the league) indicates that regression is in order. Against Washington this year he has a 5.7 ERA with 3 HR’s and 6 BB’s in 12.2 innings of work. He’s also been worse at home than on the road according to advanced stats, though his regular H/A ERA splits don’t indicate the same. Gee has a 3.2 K/BB rate, 21% K%, and 3.7 xFIP on the road. At home, those numbers are 1.7 K/BB, 15% K%, and 4.6 xFIP. That’s a significant difference.

As far as Gonzalez is concerned, he has a 6.0 ERA against the Mets this year while giving up 16 hits and 10 ER’s in 15 innings against them. Of course we have to consider that he only allowed 1 HR to them and had a 16 K to 5 BB rate, excellent numbers. Here are his xFIP’s for the 3 games though: 2.7, 4.1, 2.9 for an average of 3.2. Clearly, he pitched much better against them than the ERA number indicates. Well, today the Mets will be without Wright (out for the year) and potentially Murphy (got hit on the wrist and had a huge welt yesterday), their two best hitters. Here’s what these 2 have done against Gonzo in their careers:

DW: .316/.440/.632 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 5 BB to 1 K (19 AB’s)
DM: .357/.438/.500 with 1 3B, 1 RB, and 2 BB to 3 K (14 AB’s)

With both out today, things should be much easier. And even if Murphy plays, who knows if he’ll be as effective. Overall, Mets rank 28th offensively (30th in ISO) against lefties and they’ll be even weaker if both of these hitters (instead of just Wright of course) are out tonight. Better BP, better offense, and a much better starter for the Nats today. Throw in the fact that they’re the BEST team in the National League and you have to like them even more here. Oh and consider the fact that Washington is 7-0 in NY this year and 22-4 there over the last few years, and the Nats might have a mental edge in this matchup also. I like their chances of getting it done tonight.

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NonStopSportsPicks

2* Giants -120

This should be a great game, and the initial line movement is actually on the Dodgers here. That's okay to us, as this makes the Giants "within range" for us to fire a play on. Bumgarner has owned the Dodgers this season, while Ryu has struggled. The Giants are on fire right now, and we'll back them as a short fave!

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MLBPredictions / Kevin

Latos isn’t pitching for Cincinnati anymore so that play is CANCELLED if you bet listed pitchers. I’m adding a second play below that matches two systems…

2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ St Louis Cardinals – CARDINALS RL-1.5 (+103)
Listed Pitchers: De La Rosa vs Wainwright
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.06 units)

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels – ASTROS TO WIN (+170) *ADDED*
Listed Pitchers: Oberholtzer vs Wilson
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 3.40 units)

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Maverick Sports

Cardinals -1
Brewers -1
Pirates -1
Pirates/Cardinals Parlay

Baylor -32

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Winning Sport Plays

MLB (5-star or 5-unit)

Miami +145

Chi Cubs +190

NY Mets +140

LA Dodgers +110

NY Yankees +160

Boston +175

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LINEMAKERS

Toledo Rockets

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Intpicks

2star Baylor
1star Cincinnati

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SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks

(A) Toledo +10

No additional plays

(Letter) indicates an official play in the 3-game progression.

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BRANDON LANG

20 DIME Buffalo+32

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HARRY BONDI

College Football Free Pick

TOLEDO (+10) over Cincinnati
7 p.m. ET

FREE PICK record is 9-4 on our last 13 selections and tonight we’ll grab the inflated points for another underdog cover. Cincinnati is the only Division 1 team to have not played a game yet and start super hyped sophomore Gunner Kiel at QB. Kiel originally committed to LSU then transferred to Notre Dame, where he was beaten out for the starting position by Everett Golson so he transferred to Cincy. He has yet to throw a pass in a game at any school so all eyes will be on him and the 13 starters the Bearcats return. We think having played two games in which they romped over Division 2 New Hampshire and played Missouri tough for three quarters gives Toledo a big edge here. Toledo did lose their QB in the Mizzo game and that is factored into the line here. Sophomore Logan Woodside will take over for Toledo and he threw over 200 passes last year in game action and played the fourth quarter at Missouri as well as getting most of the snaps in practice this week so we expect a good game from him and another solid outing from Rocket running back Kareem Hunt who has run for 284 yards in two games. Toledo keeps it close.