9-13-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

5*- UCLA -7.5
4*- Missouri -9.5
4*- C. Michigan +6.5
4*- Mississippi -27.5
4*- under 56.5 Georgia Southern / GT
4*- Texas State +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis


7* - Mississippi -27.5
5*- LSU -31
4*- West Virginia +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Informer

5*- N.Illinios -10
3*- Missouri -9.5
3*- USC - BC under 55

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHEEP


[158] S Alabama +14.5
[135] Over 49 Iowa-Isu ($1000)
[198] UNLV +10 ($1000)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

UTEP under 60.5
Pitt under 49
Ohio State under 50.5
Florida over 51.5
Georgia Tech under 56.5
Air Force over 60
Maryland over 57.5
Syracuse over 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson


Nevada +16
Purdue +28.5
Boise St -16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | TORONTO at CALGARY
Play On - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (TORONTO) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins
38-11 since 1997. ( 77.6% | 25.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Georgia at South Carolina

Georgia Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5, 59.5)

Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Williams-Brice Stadium in 20 years, but the Bulldogs haven't always had Todd Gurley running the ball. The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the sixth-ranked Bulldogs into a key SEC East road contest against No. 23 South Carolina on Saturday. The Gamecocks have won the past two meetings at Williams-Brice — and three of the past four matchups overall — but have never won three straight at home against the Bulldogs.

It's the SEC opener for Georgia, which opened the season with an impressive 45-21 home win over Clemson and has emerged as the favorite to win the SEC East. "Everybody feels like this could be what decides the division," Georgia coach Mark Richt told reporters. "The reality is we've lost twice to them and won the league. Missouri lost to them (in 2013) and won the league. It's not a guarantee that you're out, but … everyone wants to control their own destiny in this race to get to Atlanta." The Gamecocks already are playing catchup after a season-opening 52-28 loss to Texas A&M on Aug. 28.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Georgia -5.5.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at South Carolina +6, the line has shifted to +6.5. The total has seen a small decrease from 60.0 to 59.5.

INJURY REPORT: Georgia: SE Malcom Mitchell (Ques-Knee), SE Justin Scott-Wesley (Ques-Knee), SE Jonathon Rumph (Doubt-Hamstring) South Carolina: WR Pharoh Cooper (Ques-Foot), G Brock Stadnik (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: There is a of thunderstorms throughout the game with a 65 percent chance of rainfall. At kickoff, wind will be blowing south at around five mph and dying down throughout the remainder of the contest.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This will be by far our biggest bet game of the day, and from all indication our biggest decision of the day. With over 80 percent of the bets and money on the road favorite, we’re going to need South Carolina big. We opened Georgia a solid 6 point favorite and with all the money on the Dawgs, we went from -6 -110, to -6 -115, to -6.5 flat to now -6.5 -115. It’s the first game me and my staff talked about [Friday] morning, contemplating going to 7 and I do believe that unless we see a surge of sharp money on the dog, we’re going to get to Georgia -7 at some point [Friday], or very first thing [Saturday]." Peter Childs .

ABOUT GEORGIA (1-0, 0-0 SEC): The Bulldogs' streak of nine straight games being held to 20 points or fewer at South Carolina seemingly is in jeopardy thanks to Gurley, who racked up conference and national honors after compiling a school-record 293 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns against Clemson. Gurley is capable of being the workhorse and taking pressure off quarterback Hutson Mason, who was an efficient 18-for-26 for 131 yards against Clemson. The defense's debut under new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt was strong, as the Bulldogs held the Tigers scoreless after halftime and allowed only 15 total yards on 22 plays after the break.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (1-1, 0-1): The Gamecocks got star running back Mike Davis going in last week's 33-23 win over East Carolina, as he rushed for 101 yards for his eighth career 100-yard game. That balance is critical to helping quarterback Dylan Thompson settle into his starting role, which he has done nicely thus far, passing for 632 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense is still adjusting to life without No. 1 draft pick Jadeveon Clowney and has struggled against the pass and had a tough time getting off the field on third down.

TRENDS:

*Over is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
*Gamecocks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
*Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 65.8 percent are taking Georgia -6.5 with 55 percent totals bettors taking the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ten Report - Week 3
By ASA

GAME OF THE WEEK

Penn State (-3.5) at Rutgers - 8:00 p.m. ET
PSU & Rutgers open up B1G conference play on Saturday in Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights, it's their first conference game as a member of the conference. Rutgers is 2-0 heading into this week with wins over Washington State and FCS Howard. The Knights are led by QB Nova (31-of-46 for 563 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) and RB James (216 rush yards on 5.1 YPC with 4 TD). Nova, James, and the rest of this offense will have their first difficult test against PSU's defense; a unit that ranks 4th against the run, 15th in overall defense, and 25th in scoring defense. Rutgers' defensive numbers aren't very good at this point in the season after allowing 538 yards to Washington State and 427 to FCS Howard. The Knights will have to clean things up on defense as PSU's QB Hackenberg is on his way to a breakout campaign. The sophomore already has 773 pass yards (65.1%) with 4 TD & 4 INT. The Nittany Lions were able to avoid a letdown performance in a 21-3 win over Akron after coming home from a week one game in Dublin. Motivation won't be lacking for either side as we expect Rutgers to be fired up for their first home conference game in a primetime setting. On the other side, PSU got some good news this week that the NCAA released the ban on postseason play - meaning the Nittany Lions will be eligible for a bowl this year. Not that the Nittany Lions weren't playing with high-intensity before, but that news certainly won't hurt the motivation going forward. Penn State is 15-8 SU in the last 23 Big Ten road games, but just 1-4 SU & ATS in the last 5. PSU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Rutgers, but the last meeting was in 1995. Rutgers is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine home games.

BEST OF THE REST

Iowa (-13.5) vs. Iowa State - 3:30 p.m. ET
Is it time to be concerned about performance of the Hawkeyes? They knew they were going to get a tough battle from FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but still only escaped with an eight-point win. Then last week they barely squeaked by at home against Ball State. QB Rudock threw two TD in the final 2:52 to give Iowa the 17-13 win. Arguably the most concerning aspect of Iowa's season so far is the inability to effectively run the ball. The Hawks rank 97th in rushing with just 132 YPG. Things won't get any easier as star LT, and likely top draft pick, Brandon Scherff is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Jake Rudock has posted solid numbers (572 yards on 68.8% with 4 TD and 0 INT), but Iowa needs to run it better. Solid defense and adequate QB play can take this team only so far. As ordinary as Iowa has been so far, they're in a much better position than rival Iowa State. ISU is already 0-2 after losses to FCS North Dakota State and conference rival Kansas State. The offense has been abysmal. QB Richardson has just 1 TD and 3 INT while top RB Wimberly has just 75 yards on 23 carries. They rank near the bottom of every major offensive statistical category. The defensive unit hasn't been much better as the Cyclones rank 121st against the rush, 68th against the pass, 110th in total yards allowed, and 100th in PPG allowed. This rivalry is split 7-7 since 2000 and Iowa State is 10-4 ATS over that span. Nine of those 14 matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, including three straight meetings by a total of just 12 points. Iowa is 0-2 ATS this season, failing to cover as a double-digit favorite in both of its games. ISU is 0-2 SU, but covered as a double-digit underdog against a solid Kansas State team last week.


Minnesota (+14) at TCU - 4:00 p.m. ET
Minnesota will take a big step up in competition this week as they visit TCU after home dates with FCS Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner sprained his MCL against MTSU last week and his status remains uncertain. Leidner's strength is his ability to run from the QB position; if this sprain has a negative effect on his rushing ability, expect the Gophers to go with backup QB Chris Streveler. Streveler, the redshirt freshman, has thrown one pass in his career. Minnesota's strength is in the rushing attack. David Cobb rushed for 220 yards in last week's win over MTSU and the Gophers now rank 30th in rush YPG through two weeks. Expect TCU to stack the box this weekend in an attempt to make the Gophers beat them through the air. TCU had last week off after a blowout win over FCS Samford in week one. The Horned Frogs wracked up a +412 yard advantage and +24 first downs in the 48-14 blowout win. TCU returned 16 starters from last year's squad and this defense has the potential to be really, really good. Offensively QB Boykin leads the way along with a stable of solid running backs and experienced receivers. They'll give Minnesota's defense - which has looked vulnerable - their toughest test of the season to date. Dating back to 2007, the Gophers are 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10-points or more - includes a 13-7 ATS record on the road. Minnesota is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in the last 16 road openers. TCU is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home games and just 0-3 ATS since 2004 against Big Ten squads.

Maryland (-3) vs. West Virginia - 12:00 p.m. ET
Maryland may have switched conferences, but their rivalry with West Virginia still stands strong. The Terps ended a seven-game losing streak to the Mountaineers with last year's 37-0 shutout victory. The 37-point margin of victory was the largest in this series since 1951! Maryland's 2013 season unraveled after that win, but they'll look to repeat the formula with another win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Terps had a closer-than-expected matchup with South Florida last week. They used a blocked punt return for TD in the 4th quarter to propel them to a seven-point victory - failing to cover as the 11-point favorite. Maryland managed just 116 rush yards on 2.9 YPC and they turned the ball over six times; but credit to the defense for holding USF's offense down the stretch and getting the win on the road. QB C.J. Brown has had a rough-go of it so far in 2014. He's completing just 53.8% with 3 TD and 2 INT despite having one of the top WR corps to throw to. Brown will have to clean up his game as the competition level goes up in this rivalry matchup with WVU. West Virginia wasn't supposed to stick with Alabama in week one, but the Mountaineers made a ball-game of it, never trailing by more than 10 points and cutting the lead to seven points in the 4th quarter. There was no hangover in week two as WVU trounced FCS Towson 54-0. QB Clint Trickett leads the way in this explosive offense. Trickett has 713 pass yards on 75.3% completions with 3 TD and 0 INT so far. He spreads the wealth nicely as three receivers already have 10 catches. Trickett didn't play in last year's blowout loss to Maryland, but this offense will be motivated to make some noise after the Terps held them scoreless. The Terps are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, going 0-3 SU & ATS at home over that span (-11.6 PPG). Maryland is 9-22 ATS in the last 29 as a home favorite. West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a road underdog.

Illinois (+14.5) at Washington - 4:00 p.m. ET
Credit the Illini for coming from behind yet again to get a win; but needing to come-from-behind in two straight weeks at home against FCS Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a bit concerning. Wes Lunt continues to put up huge numbers and appears to be a strong fit for Bill Cubit's offense. Lunt now has 741 yards (67%) with 7 TD and just 1 INT. Lunt has had to be "the man" in the offense since the rushing attack isn't making a huge impact. RB's Ferguson & Young have combined to rush for 160 yards and 2 TD on 48 carries - a measly 3.3 YPC. Another concern has to be the performance of the defense. They allowed 400 yards to WKU last week and now rank 73rd in yards allowed and 72nd in points allowed through two weeks. This week Illinois goes on the road for the first time in 2014 to take on a fellow team that has had two uninspiring performances. Washington barely escaped with a win in a trip to Hawaii in week one and had to battle FCS Eastern Washington to win a shootout, 59-52. Eastern Washington tallied an astonishing 573 yards and 35 first downs against the Huskies and their QB Adams threw 7 TD! If an FCS QB can do that to Washington, they have to be extremely concerned about what Illinois' Lunt will do this week. Washington ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category so far. That will need to be cleaned up as UW's offense isn't well-equipped to win shootouts. The Huskies have run the ball with success (265 YPG with eight rush TD) but QB's Miles & Lindquist have combined to comlete just 24-of-50 passes for 342 yards and 2 TD. Illinois has revenge on its mind after a 10-point loss to the Huskies last September. The 10-point margin actually should have been larger as Washington was +288 yards and +13 first downs - but -2 in TO's, allowing Illinois to keep it rather close. The Illini have lost 11 of their last 12 road/neutral openers with the average loss by 17 PPG. Washington is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as a double-digit favorite while Illinois is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 as a double-digit underdog.

Michigan (-31) vs. Miami (OH) - 3:30 p.m. ET
The good news for Michigan is that it can't get much worse than what happened last week. The Wolverines were shutout for the first time since 1984 and it came at the hands of their bitter rival, Notre Dame, in the final scheduled game of the series. Michigan didn't get much going on offense, rushing for just 100 yards on 2.9 YPC and tossing for 189. They turned the ball over four times to Notre Dame's zero, and the defense was picked apart by ND's QB Golson. The only positive to take from that game was that Michigan's run defense held ND to just 54 rush yards on 1.7 YPC. The Wolverines will have to avoid a letdown after such a meaningful game last week, but that shouldn't be too difficult at home against Miami of Ohio, who has dropped 18 consecutive games. Miami showed some promise in a week one matchup against a good Marshall team. The Hawks were down by eight points at the end of the 3rd quarter before losing by 15 (covered as the 24-point underdog). Things didn't look nearly as promising in last week's home loss to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Miami turned the ball over six times and managed just 10 points against the FCS foe. QB Andrew Hendrix, the graduate transfer from ND, has a strong arm and already has 677 pass yards through two weeks. Michigan is 5-0 SU vs. Miami (last game was in 2008) and 33-1 SU vs. the MAC conference. Michigan is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite of 25 points or more. The Wolves are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 game at The Big House.

Ohio State (-32) vs. Kent State - 12:00 p.m. ET
Ohio State, like Michigan, will try to bounce back from a disheartening loss. The Buckeyes lost a regular season game for the first time under head coach Urban Meyer; and their first home loss since 2011. Braxton Millers absence under center was truly felt last week as redshirt freshman JT Barrett really struggled against Virginia Tech. VA Tech stacked the box and shut down OSU's rushing attack (108 yards on 2.7 YPC) and Barrett couldn't take advantage. Barrett completed just 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT and was inefficient on third down (4-of-16 conversions). The offensive line that replaced four starters from 2013 appeared overmatched by the Hokies and the defense wasn't pretty either. The Buckeyes will have a chance to get right this week against Kent State. Things are looking bleak for Kent State. The Golden Flashes have dropped both games so far this season, losing to Ohio and South Alabama. (0-2 ATS). QB Reardon has 4 TD and just 1 INT, but he has been inefficient (58%) and mild (5.8 yards per attempt). KSU is averaging just 47.5 rush yards per game and they've scored just 4 TD through two games. The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in the last 26 road openers including six straight losses by an average of 28 PPG. OSU has won both meetings with Kent State since 2000, winning by 34 points in 2002 and 45 points in 2007. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite of 25 points or more.

Nebraska (-10) at Fresno State - 10:30 p.m. ET
The Huskers avoided a near-disaster against FCS McNeese State last week. With the game tied at 24 with just seconds remaining, the Huskers and Cowboys appeared to be headed for overtime. Star RB Ameer Abdullah took a pass 58 yards for a touchdown with 20 seconds left on the clock, giving Nebraska the seven-point win. The Huskers we saw in week one were vastly superior to the version we saw against FCS McNeese State last week. Which version will get on the plane to Fresno State? QB Armstrong was electric on the ground last week (131 yards on 11 carries) but was a bit inefficient through the air (16-of-31 with 2 TD and 1 INT). Abdullah couldn't get going on the ground as he tallied just 54 rush yards on 17 carries. Defensively the Huskers were a bit too lenient against their FCS foe, allowing 338 yards and 24 points while allowing the Cowboys to hold the ball for +9 minutes TOP. Fresno State, now 0-2, is desperate for a win and playing at home for the first time - Nebraska has to show up ready for a fight. FSU has looked outmatched in back-to-back road losses to Pac-12 members, USC (L 13-52) & Utah (L 27-59). The Bulldogs lost a lot of star power from 2013's team and nothing has gone right so far in 2014. QB's Connette and Burrell have been inefficient (55%) while combining to throw 3 TD and 4 INT. The defense has been absolutely atrocious. FSU is allowing 613.5 YPG (126th) and 55.5 PPG (127th) through two games. The Bulldogs are hoping that a return home, where they are 13-0 the past two years, gets them back on the right track. The only prior meeting between these two was in 2011. Fresno visited Nebraska as a 28-point underdog. They trailed 26-28 late before two late touchdowns put the game away for the Huskers (FSU cover). Nebraska is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more.

Purdue (+28.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 p.m. ET
What a difference a week makes. A week after Purdue started the season on a strong note, beating Western Michigan by nine and notching 43 points in the process, Purdue came crashing back down with a 17-point blowout loss at home to Central Michigan. CMU moved the ball with relative ease against Purdue, tallying 333 yards and 19 first downs despite playing conservative most of the 2nd half. Purdue QB Etling did not have a good day, starting with an INT that CMU returned for a touchdown just five minutes into the game. Etling was replaced by sophomore Austin Appelby, who didn't exactly fare well himself. Coaches have opened up the competition and a starter for this week has not been named. Things will get tougher for the Boilermakers as they travel to South Bend this Saturday. They'll hope to catch Notre Dame in a letdown spot after the Irish put a beat-down on rival Michigan last weekend. ND QB Golson completed 23-of-34 passes for 226 yards with 3 TD and no INT against Michigan while ND's defense dominated, forcing three turnovers and becoming the first team to shutout the Wolverines since 1984. Notre Dame has given up a total of 17 points through two weeks of play - bad news for a Purdue team that has huge questions on offense. Notre Dame has won 23 of the past 28 games in this series, including six straight. The Boilers have covered the past two seasons, however, losing by just three points in 2012 (+14) and seven points in 2013 (+18). Notre Dame is just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite of 27 points or more. Purdue is just 7-19 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in its last 26 road openers. The Boilers are also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as an underdog of 20 points or more.

Indiana (+6) at Bowling Green - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Hoosiers were off last week after dismantling FCS Indiana State in week one. Indiana has one of the more underrated offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. This week they travel to Bowling Green for their first road trip of the season. Bowling Green had a rough start to the season. The Falcons were blown out by Western Kentucky in week one and lost starting QB Matt Johnson to a season-ending hip injury in the process. They regrouped for a bounce back 48-7 win over FCS VMI last week. VMI was able to tally 418 yards and 24 first downs while controlling the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Bowling Green had three special teams touchdowns and forced three VMI turnovers. BG QB Knapke had a good starting debut (22-of-31 for 237 yards) while the rushing attack churned out 260 rush yards on 7.0 YPC. Bowling Green has dropped three straight games against Big Ten squads (since 2008), losing by an average of 33.6 PPG. Indiana is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog.

Michigan State - Bye Week
For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is off this week before hosting Eastern Michigan next Saturday.

Wisconsin - Bye Week
It wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. The Badgers are off this week before hosting Bowling Green.

Northwestern - Bye Week
This seems like a broken record. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Last week Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. FCS Western Illinois visits Evanston next Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bad Company - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers

Each week during the college football season, we’ll take a look at the worst of the worst teams on the gridiron and who to avoid placing your money on, even if the high number is enticing. Heading into the third week of the campaign, three of these squads come from the Mid-American Conference, starting with a club looking for its first victory since October of 2012.

Miami-Ohio (+31) at Michigan – 3:30 PM EST

The days of Ben Roethlisberger under center for Miami-Ohio are long gone as the Redhawks are currently riding an 18-game losing streak. In 2013, the Redhawks finished 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 against the spread, which included seven defeats by at least 25 points. Miami managed a cover in its season opener against Marshall as 24-point home underdogs in a 42-27 setback, but tripped on itself as a six-point home favorite against Eastern Kentucky in a 17-10 loss.

Now, Miami heads to the Big House to take on a Michigan squad that was humiliated at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Redhawks own a dreadful 2-10-1 ATS record the last two seasons as road underdogs, while Michigan has covered six of its past seven games as a double-digit home favorite.

Kent State (+32) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST

Another case of a MAC school going on the road to take on a Big Ten squad coming off an embarrassing loss. The Golden Flashes have compiled a 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS record since the 2012 season in which Kent State made it all the way to the MAC title game. The offense has been offensive so far for the Flashes, who have scored a total of 27 points in two losses to Ohio and South Alabama.

One positive to note with Kent State is the 2-1 ATS record last season as a double-digit road underdog, which including covers at LSU and Ball State. However, it seems like a nearly impossible task for Kent State headed to the Horseshoe on Saturday to come out with a win as the Buckeyes last lost to an in-state school in football back in 1921. Since 2009, OSU has put together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record against Ohio schools, as four of those victories came by at least 36 points.

Purdue (+27) vs. Notre Dame (in Indianapolis) – 7:30 PM EST

The Boilermakers owned one of the worst defenses in college football last season en route to a dreadful 1-11 season in which the lone win came against FCS Indiana State. Purdue allowed at least 31 points in eight games in 2013, while the Boilermakers kept that trend alive in the first two contests of 2014 by yielding 34 points to Western Michigan and 38 points to Central Michigan. Now, Purdue gets a major step-up in class against Notre Dame, who has scored 79 points in its first two wins over Rice and Michigan.

The good news for Purdue heading into this neutral-site matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is the two covers against Notre Dame the last two seasons, a 20-17 defeat in South Bend as 14-point ‘dogs in 2012, followed by a 31-24 home setback in 2013 as 17-point ‘dogs. However, the Boilermakers put together a 3-6 ATS record last season as a double-digit underdog, which included six losses of at least 24 points.

Eastern Michigan (+18) at Old Dominion – 6:00 PM EST

Back to the MAC with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan, who were blown out at Florida last Saturday, 65-0 as 40 ½-point underdogs. How bad was it for EMU? The Eagles were outgained by the Gators, 655-125, while EMU racked up only seven first downs (compared to 27 by UF). Eastern Michigan has won only two games in three of the past four seasons, so its prospects of an improved campaign are highly unlikely in 2014. Now, the Eagles are playing the second of four straight road games, taking on an Old Dominion team who is participating in its first season at the FBS level.

Eastern Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a road underdog, while ODU blew an 11-point lead in last week’s 46-34 setback at North Carolina State as a 15 ½-point ‘dog. EMU better strap up defensively after giving up a mind-blowing 42 points or more in nine of the past 12 games.

FIU (+26) vs. Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM EST

The only home underdog on this list is the Golden Panthers, taking on the Pitt Panthers in this obvious mismatch. FIU has split a pair of games against FCS schools Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, while allowing 17 points so far. There isn’t much to get excited about offensively with FIU, who scored 13 points or less 10 times in 2013. Since 2012, the Golden Panthers have lost 12 of their past 13 home games with the lone victory coming against Wagner last week.

Pittsburgh’s largest road win under Paul Chryst is a 24-point margin against USF back in 2012, as the Panthers split six games away from Heinz Field last season. Pitt is seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2008.

Favorite fade:

Vanderbilt (-16) vs. Massachusetts – 12:00 PM EST

Vandy has put together two horrible efforts so far in losses to Temple and Ole Miss. The Commodores have been outscored by a massive margin (78-10), while allowing 547 yards to Ole Miss last week. UMass may not have a lot of talent, but the Minutemen hung around with Colorado as a 17-point home ‘dog in last Saturday’s 41-38 defeat. Last season, UMass compiled a 2-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while covering as 29-point ‘dogs in a 24-7 loss at Vanderbilt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Central Florida (-2) lost 21-16 at home to Missouri in '12- total yardage in game was 395-346 UCF. Knights were outgained 511-245 two weeks ago by Penn State in Ireland, with PSU winning 26-24 on FG at gun after Knights had stormed from behind to take lead. Knights are 13-8 as road underdogs under O'Leary. AAC road dogs are 3-2 this season. Missouri thrashed Toledo 49-24 on road last week; they're 12-8 as a home favorite the last four years.

Virginia Tech won seven of last eight games with East Carolina, winning last three here, by 22-10-35 points, but dogs are 4-1-1 vs spread last six series games. Hokies had huge win at Ohio State last week; they're just 5-11-1 in last 17 games as home favorite and have ACC opener on deck vs Ga Tech. East Carolina (+16) lost 33-23 at South Carolina last week, improving to 6-10 as road underdogs under Ruffin. ECU has only nine starters back from LY, but they outgained Gamecocks 453-441.

Iowa needed two TDs in last 2:53 last week to nip stubborn Ball State 17-13 at home; Hawkeyes are 4-10 in last 14 games as home favorites- they won four of last six games vs rival Iowa State, winning four of last five played here, but Cyclones won 9-6 in last meeting here in '12. State lost Big X opener 32-28 at home last week to K-State, giving up winning TD in last 2:00- they're 13-10 as road dogs under Rhoads and have 10 of LY's starters back on offense this season.

Maryland (-3.5) drilled West Virginia 37-0 LY, ending 7-game series skid vs WVU; Terps lost last four visits here, last three by 10+ points- over last decade, they're 11-22 as home favorites, 5-7 under Edsall. Maryland won 24-17 at USF last week, holding Bulls scoreless in 2nd half. WVU is 9-5 as road underdog since '09, 5-4 under Holgorsen; they've got a senior QB with 13 career starts. Terps have 17 starters back, senior QB with 18 career starts.

First road start for Louisville's soph QB Gardner, who was 20-28/206 in his ACC opener in 31-13 win over Miami, converting 7-15 on 3rd down. Cardinals were 5-5-1 as road favorites under Strong; they have only four starters back on defense. Virginia lost 28-20 (+22) to UCLA in opener at home; Cavaliers are 6-11-1 in last 18 games as home dogs, but have 17 starters back this year- their soph QB has two starts. Virginia is 11-18-3 vs spread in ACC games under London.

South Carolina won three of last four games vs Georgia; they've scored 20+ points in four of last five series games, with Dawgs losing last two visits here 35-7/16-7, but Gamecock defense has been sub-par so far in '14, allowing 75 points, 1,133 yards and 66 first downs in splitting first two games. Carolina covered last four tries as a home dog, but this is its first game as home dog in four years. Georgia hung 328 rushing yards on Clemson in 45-21 win, they had last week off, which helps here.

Bielema is a bully coach; he whacked a I-AA team 73-3 last week, hut is only 3-7 as an underdog since coming to Arkansas. Hogs gave up 595 yards in 45-21 loss at Auburn in their opener- their junior QB has made 14 starts. These teams used to be rivals in the old SWC, but haven't met in roughly two decades. Tech struggled to beat UTEP 30-26 last week in El Paso; Red Raiders are 9-16 as home favorites since '08- they've got all five starters back on OL, but soph QB has only eight starts.

Washington (-10.5) outgained Illinois 615-327 in 34-24 win LY; Huskies gave up 52 points to I-AA team last week (won 59-52) after struggling at Hawai'i week before, as Petersen takes over team that is 8-4 as favorite at home the last three years. Illinois (-5.5) gutted out 42-34 home win over decent WKU squad last week, passing for 456 yards after trailing by FG at half, in game where both teams have three turnovers. Illinois is just 1-7 as a road underdog under Beckman.

Florida hasn't lost to Kentucky since late 80's, covering last seven series games; Wildcats were outscored by combined 149-18 in last three visits here- they're 3-4 vs spread in last seven visits here. Kentucky is 4-12 as road underdogs last four years, but have 15 starters back this year, with four back on OL. Gators has date at Alabama next week, could be taking look ahead; they're 12-18 in last 30 games as home favorites, 6-10 under Muschamp. Florida has junior QB with 13 starts.

UCLA was unimpressive in opening non-covering wins over Virginia and Memphis; Tigers gained 469 yards in Rose Bowl, 305 in air during 42-35 loss last week. Bruins have 17 starters back but their OL has struggled to protect junior QB Hundley, who has 29 career starts. Texas was drilled 41-7 by BYU last week for second year in row; gane was only 6-0 at half, but Cougars ran ball for 248 yards. Longhorns are depleted, missing QB and center- they were just 3-15 on 3rd down in Swoopes' 1st start.

Penn State is 22-2 all-time vs Rutgers, 9-0 in Garden State, but Lions are 1-4 in last five Big 14 road games, with only win as 24.5-point dogs last November at Wisconsin. PSU covered 11 of last 15 as road favorite; they outgained first two opponents by combined 413 yards but needed a late FG to nip UCF in Ireland, they smothered Akron 21-3 last week. Hard to believe this is a Big 14 game, first one for Rutgers, which has an upset win at Washington State already- they're 6-2 as dogs under Flood.

Major trap game for USC, flying cross-country after emotional win last week at Stanford, facing Boston College squad they drilled 35-7 (-14) in LY's meeting, outgaining Eagles 521-184. Trojans covered once in their last eight tries as road favorites, are 4-12 vs spread in last 16 non-league games. BC gave up 303 rushing yards in 30-20 home loss to Pitt Friday; Eagles completed only 10-28 passes, were outgained 414-276- they are 9-6 as home underdogs since '06, 2-1 under Addazio.

Arizona (-8.5) nipped Nevada 49-48 in bowl game two years ago, in last series meeting, with both teams having 30+ first downs. Wildcats are 6-6 as home favorites under RichRod; they've got Pac-12 opener next week vs Cal. Arizona has freshman QB- they gutted out 26-23 win at UTSA last week in his first road start. Nevada upset Washington State at home last week; Wolf Pack has senior QB with 32 starts- they were 2-4 LY as road dogs in Polian's first season in Reno.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB | NEBRASKA at FRESNO ST
Play Against - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game, with an inexperienced QB as starter
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

CFB | GA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA TECH
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half
23-9 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 0.0 units )

CFB | E CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 25 and 28 in non-conference games, with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHEEP

158 S Alabama +14.5
135 Over 49 Iowa-Isu $1000
198 UNLV +10 $1000 Open Order*

177 Over 49 Ulm-Lsu $1000
143 Over 64 Geo-Sc $1000
128 Under 54 Syr-Cmu $1000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Boise State vs. Connecticut

3 Star NCAA FB Free Pick Boise State

The UConn Huskies lost their starting quarterback Casey Cochran to an injury. Chandler Whitmer is now the quarterback, and Whitmer has never proven to be a reliable option at QB in the past. Boise State got their offense going in a big way last week vs. a pretty good Colorado State team. At the same time, UConn was struggling to beat Stony Brook. UConn doesn't have enough weapons to keep up with this Boise State team. The line here is too short based on the West Coast team playing an early game in the East theory. It's overdone in many cases, and this Boise State team totally outclasses UConn. Take Boise State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carlo Campanella

UCLA vs. Texas

10* Play On UCLA

Texas is 1-1, but has struggled this season while losing by 34 points to BYU last Saturday and their only victory coming as 21 point Favorites over an outgunned North Texas crew. Their main issue comes on offense, where they've been held to only 183 passing yards per game and a horrible 3.3 yards per rush during their first 2 games. Those low numbers are no surprise as they play under a new offensive system behind 1st year HC Charlie Strong. It's not a good time to have a "cold offense" as they host offensive powerhouse, UCLA, who's 2-0 and averaging 35 points per game and only expect to get better as they gel together. UCLA is 3-1 SU & ATS during the last four meetings in this series, and expect another win here as Texas struggled against much weaker teams and now steps up to face a solid PAC 12 squad.