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The Braves are coming off a 2-7 road trip and their chances for the playoffs are becoming slimmer and slimmer by the day. Today they’ll take on a Washington team that is 6-2 in their last 8 games and will have their stud Strasburg on the mound. Let’s ignore the actual stats and take a look at SIERA’s of both Strasburg and Santana against their respective opponent tonight:
Based on SIERA, Strasburg didn’t pitch well against the Braves early in the year (04/05) but he’s been spectacular since, holding this 24th ranked lineup to an average SIERA of 1.9 in the last 3 starts. By comparison, Santana was stellar in his first meeting with Washington (06/22) but has been horrible in the other two later in the year, averaging a SIERA of 4.9. It’s not a surprise as the ‘unfamiliarity’ wore off as the season went on and the Nats have been excellent against both the fastball and slider, which are Santana’s two primary pitches. I’ll back the better team in this one with a strong advantage in starting pitching tonight.
A TD with 13 seconds remaining in yesterday’s Houston-Oakland game cost us a free play winner on the under in that game, but we’ll bounce back tonight with another play on the under.
The untold story heading into tonight’s game is that these two offensive coaching staffs are very familiar with each other. Indy offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was with Andrew Luck at Stanford and has helped his defense this week in preparing for Chip Kelly’s offense, which he saw at Oregon every year. On the flip side, Kelly has seen Andrew Luck before plenty of times when they were both on the college level. Bottom line: This will be a slower paced game than everyone expects. Despite the reputation of playing in high-paced, high-scoring games, the Colts have gone under in 10 of their last 15 games as a favorite and in 15 of their last 22 games on this field. More than 80% of the action at the offshore sportsbooks we monitor is on the over tonight, so we’ll gladly play the contrary side and go under.
Monday winner is a 75 Dime release on the Philadelphia Eagles and the Indianapolis Colts to play Over the total. At 5:00 am Vegas time the total for this game is 54 points.
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