9-17-14

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Hump day card has the MLB Game of the Week from a Perfect system that wins by an average 3 runs per game and a 5* MLB Dog that has an Undefeated Team Angle. Free MLB System Play below.


On Wednesday the free MLB System Play is on the NY. Mets. Game 928 at 7;10 eastern. The Mets Blasted Miami 9-1 last night and have won 23 of 34 vs losing teams. Miami has lost 21 of 30 on the road when the total is 7 or less and 8 of the last 10 here. They have struggled to score since Stanton went down. It does not figure to get any easier here as D. Gee is on the mound for the Mets and he has a 3-0 record with a 2.30 era vs the Marlins and has allowed 0 runs in 15+ innings here against them. Alvarez goes for Miami and he has a 5.17 era the last 3 starts and allowed 6 runs in 5 innings in his last start here The Mets apply to a solid 36-6 system here that plays on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less that are off a home favored win by 5+ runs at -140 or higher and had 10 or more hits vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5+ runs that had 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits and both teams had 1 or less errors.. Look for the Mets to take another from Miami. Jump on both Bigs in MLB Tonight. The MLB Game of the Week from a Powerful blowout system that wins on average by 3 runs and the 5* 100% MLB Dog with Bite that wins outright. For the free play take the Mets. GC

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Bookiemonsters

Pod SEA -105

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Cleveland Insider

MLB (3-2 L5)
Colorado Rockies -102 over the Los Angeles Dodgers

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet -909 CIN (+140) vs 910 CHC

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

MLB Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Time: Wednesday 09/17 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Baltimore -124 (moneyline)

After putting a seal on the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles still have a shot at securing the best record in baseball, which would mean home field advantage for them all the way to the World Series should they advance that far. Baltimore is 49-21 in their last 70 games, and are playing as well as anyone. J.A. Happ pitched brilliantly in his last outing in allowing 1 run on 2 hits, but it wasn’t enough to grab a win. Happ also pitched well in his last outing against Baltimore, striking out 12 in 8 innings, but that was not good enough either. Bud Norris has developed into a very dependable starter for Baltimore and is 13-8 on the season. Norris has had a lot of success against the Blue Jays where he owns a 3-0 lifetime record. Norris reached 10 strikeouts in blanking the Yankees in his last start and should be feeling good about where he is entering this game. Happ has been on the short end of a lot of good wasted outings. Take Baltimore in this one.

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Falcon Sports

Cleveland -130 listing Carrasco/Oberholtzer

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Sportswagers

Los Angeles @ COLORADO
COLORADO -102 over Los Angeles

3:10 PM EST. Albeit slightly, the Dodgers can’t be favored here. L.A.’s pitching staff is in shambles right now and Carlos Frias is forced into making his second career start after being called up in early August. The Dodgers signed Frias at age 17 out of the Dominican Republic and he started off as a very promising prospect before struggling several seasons in the low minors. His fastball velocity did not increase as expected and he had trouble controlling his secondary offerings. Frias experienced a bit of a turnaround season in ’13 across three levels and finally began to advance through the system. He throws with easy arm action and a repeatable delivery. His fastball sits between 88-93 mph with a little bit of movement and his slider has some late breaking action. The change-up hasn’t progressed as hoped and has yet to be a reliable option, particularly against left-handed batters. Frias doesn’t generate a lot of swing-and-misses, so he has to rely on working down in the zone and generating ground balls to be effective. At times, his slider is an effective out pitch but at other times it’s useless. Frias does not have the repertoire to be a starter. He was brought up as a relief pitcher and he’s unlikely to be anything more than that. Over 542 minor league innings, Frias has a 4.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. At Triple-A Albuquerque this season, he did start 15 games but impressive he was not with a 5.01 ERA, .307 oppBA and a 1.47 WHIP. Over his 25.1 innings since being called up, 21 of those innings came at either Dodger Stadium or AT&T Park so his 3.91 ERA is skewed. Now making an emergency start, we would not trust him in the favorite’s role.

Colorado went off for 10 runs last night. They have now won six its past eight games at Coors while scoring 55 times over those eight games. Jorge De La Rosa has 13 wins for a bad team. That says something. At Coors, he is 9-2 with a 3.30 ERA and that, too, speaks volumes. When this guy pitches at home, the Rockies seldom lose. De La Rosa has an outstanding 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split over his last 31 innings covering five starts. His groundball rate on the year is 51% and it has been trending up consistently throughout. De la Rosa's stable skills, winning ways and current form make him an outstanding value play, especially against an unproven rookie that has struggled for years in the minors.


Our Pick
COLORADO -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Sportswagers

Chicago @ KANSAS CITY
Chicago -103 over KANSAS CITY (1st 5 inns)

We could bring you up to speed on Royals starter Yordano Ventura but it’s not relevant because this wager has nothing to do with fading K.C.’s starter and everything to do with backing the most dominant pitcher in the game at a very cheap price.

Clayton Kershaw is a -150 favorite or more almost every time he takes the mound on the road. At home Kershaw is usually a -220 favorite. Chris Sale has been every bit as dominating as Kershaw but he’s not priced like him and that provides us with great value in backing him. Sale is even better on the road than he is at home because U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter’s park. Sale has a phenomenal 1.41 ERA on the road, and in one start in Kauffman Stadium he allowed 4 hits and 0 ER in 8 IP. Kansas City's home OPS of .665 is 14th in the AL and ranks only .001 ahead of last-place Seattle. Over his last 33 frames, Sale has whiffed 42 batters. He has put up the best skills of any starter since the All-Star break. In fact, he has even increased his four-seam fastball velocity by 2.4 mph from the 1H to the 2H, more than any pitcher in the game. We’re not certain that Chicago’s manager, Robin Ventura will allow Sale to go more than five innings here because it’s not necessary. Why burn out or risk anything with your rotation anchor in a game that means nothing? Starters must go at least five innings to qualify for a win so Ventura and the White Sox brass will allow Sale an opportunity to pick up another W by allowing him to go at least five. It’s for that reason we’re playing this one in five innings. Sale has a great chance to win the Cy Young and if he were on the Tigers, Yanks, Red Sox or several others, he would be as big a lock to win it in the AL as Clayton Kershaw is in the NL.

Our Pick
Chicago -103 (1st 5 innings) (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Sportswagers

Texas @ OAKLAND
Texas +188 over OAKLAND

Since August 10th, the A’s have 10 wins in 34 games. That is the worst record in the majors over that span and their .216 BA over that same span is also the worst mark in the majors. That’s almost 25% of the season and yet the Athletics are still being priced like an elite team. Yeah, this is Texas but the Rangers have won five straight, they are having fun for the first time all season and they are playing with house money right now against these contenders. Oakland GM Billy Beane went all-in when he included top prospect Addison Russell in the trade for Jeff Samardzija and Samardzija has done well in his first exposure to the AL. However, Samardzija appears to be losing steam after a heavy workload to this point, not to mention the stressful innings he’s pitched under and the heavy workload he endured last year. In fact, Samardzija had a notable fade in September of last year also with a 5.58 ERA over his final five starts. We’re seeing something similar this year. The A’s have lost five of Samardzija’s last six starts. Over that span, he has allowed four runs or more three times and that includes getting tagged for seven runs by the Mets. That said, Samardzija is very capable of dominating and perhaps he throws a gem here. If that’s the case, so be it but we’re not in the business of trying to predict how a pitcher or team will perform from game to game. We’re in the business of finding value and right now the A’s aren't hitting and Samardzija is showing signs of another September fade. Both those factors make the A’s a huge risk at this price.

Put Derek Holland on your radar immediately. This guy is fresh and raring to go. Holland has looked really good in his three starts since coming off the disabled list after January knee surgery. In 21 innings over those three starts, Holland has 17 K’s and zero walks. In his last start Holland posted a 50% groundball rate and 14% line-drive rate. That’s pretty amazing for a pitcher that is seven months behind the rest of the field. Holland figures to be even better and stronger with each passing start. Holland will be a premium post-injury speculation in 2015 but we’re thrilled to take back a tag like this with him in this spot in 2014. Overlay.


Our Pick
Texas +188 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.76)

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Sports Betting Professor Original MLB

Arizona +185
San Diego +133
Minnesota +160
Houston +117

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Ecks & Bacon for Wednesday, September 17, 2014

CFB Saturday Cal +11

MLB Today Atlanta Braves with Wood (Since the play was posted Gio Gonzalez has been scratched and B. Treinin is now pitching for the Nats) Tread/Fade Lightly

Just like last week, we found a college football game that we wanna jump on early, before the line moves against us. And it's California +11 points over Arizona. Reasons to come. On the baseball board, gonna take a pop with the Braves and Alex Wood over the Nationals. Washington will grab the N.L. East, while Atlanta is on the outside looking up in the hunt for a wildcard. However, Wood has been been solid as a rock the last three times out, allowing only 3 earned runs over 23 innings for a sweet 1.23 ERA. He is also 2-1 against the Nationals this season, while his opposite number, Gio Gonzalez, has managed to post ONLY two wins in his last 12 outings. Gimme half a Benjamin on the ATL.

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Chris Jordan Baseball Winner:

My 1,000♦ Winner in tonight's baseball action is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. As of 9 a.m. pacific, the line I see on this game is Atlanta -125. Be sure you're listing Wood and Treinen in this game.

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Spartan

Tampa Bay -138

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Kevin's Pick(s):
A good start to our Dodgers/Rockies OVER pick. I'm adding one pick below...
2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves - BRAVES -1.5 (+145)
Listed Pitchers: Treinen vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.90 units)
Sent Earlier:
2 UNIT = Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies - OVER 10.5 RUNS (-120) *AFTERNOON GAME
Listed Pitchers: Frias vs De La Rosa
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
2 UNIT = Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Hamels vs Stults
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
2 UNIT = New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays - RAYS -1.5 (+170)
Listed Pitchers: McCarthy vs Cobb
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.40 units)
2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels - MARINERS TO WIN (+106)
Listed Pitchers: Paxton vs Wilson
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)

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XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL

• Play St. Louis -150 over Milwaukee---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)

8:10 PM EST

St. Louis has won 46 of the last 79 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have won 44 of the last 69 games when playing in the month of September. St. Louis has won 89 of the last 134 games when playing as a home favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 94 of the last 155 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game.

• Play Cleveland -120 over Houston---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Houston has lost 73 of the last 116 games after having won two of the last three games and they have lost 39 of the last 67 games when playing in the month of September. Houston has lost 44 of the last 73 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 44 of the last 72 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents.