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7-Unit Selection.#368. Take BYU -14 over Virginia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
We're going to takeBYU here at home against Virginia. BYU played horrendously against Houston onnational television which is not too much of a surprise to us who follow BYUgiven that they were in for a classic let down after sweeping the season serieswith Texas. BYU just dominated the Longhorns over the last two years and indeedthe trap line was set the following week with Houston as only a 17 pointfavorite and everyone and their mother decided to take BYU because they assumedVegas continues to grow because its a generous establishment. But rather,Houston had revenge coming into the game and BYU in a let down spot on aThursday Night game to boot. The essence of this selection is that we have BYUwinning by up around 19 points here as they bounce-back against a decentVirginia team on the rise. Virginia has played a very tough schedule to startthe season including UCLA and Louisville at home. This is a classic let downspot here for this team at home as they face BYU who played poorly in theirlast game and Virginia coming off a big win. The line is bit here as though ateam beat a top 25 team at home, BYU gets up for these type of games as theyhave ramped up their overall schedule playing much better teams and as theyhost Virginia, they will be more than ready to beat down on a Virginia team whowill help their poll numbers very much given that they just beat Louisville.Classic let down spot here for Virginia, tough place to play here after a bigwin and BYU did not look that dominant against Houston in their last contestand have a lot of motivation to do well here as the public likely takes a hithere as they favor Virginia and the points. Let's roll with BYU in theirtraditional element of getting up for bigger teams as they were looking ahead fromHouston to this contest in Virginia.
7-Unit Selection. #356. Navy -6 over Rutgers (Saturday@ 3:30pm est) Fantastic spot herefor Navy as they face Rutgers here. Rutgers is greatly overvalued according toour models as have them falling short in this game and Navy is undervalued aswe have them winning this game by double-digits - around 10 points. Rutgerscomes off a tight win against Penn State who managed to Push but that was atough game for Penn State in a lot of ways sandwiched in. Now, Navy gets toface this team as people's opinion of Rutgers is high after that Navy game butits a trap considering how good Navy is. Rutgers beat this team by just 1 pointlast year 21-20 and this is a huge revenge for our men in the military. Navy isa perfect 2-0 as favorites this year as they beat Temple and Texas State twostrong opponents and hung tough against Ohio State. Rutgers comes off a toughloss to Penn State and it will be very difficult for them to "get-up"for Navy if you will. Navy has revenge, the public is high on Rutgers afterthat tough contest against Penn State, Navy returns home and after fallingshort to Ohio State earlier this year they are ready to give those fans whosupport them a big win as the public also takes a hit here as this is a qualitypublic fade to boot. Let's roll with Navy who has the potential to win thiscontest by double-digits as this could be a fairly easier win than most predictas Rutgers is the same defense that gave up 25 points to Howard and though thisRutgers team is decent on offense, what does it say about Navy being favored by3 points on the road at Temple - after Temple beat Vanderbilt on the road in arout? Let's roll with Navy here as they likely win by 10 points per our modelsthis evening.
6-Unit Selection. #389. Over 64 West Virginiavs. Oklahoma (Saturday @ 7pm est)
Watch out Oklahoma,you could lose this game Outright. West Virginia is in a great spot here asthey host Oklahoma at home in what should be an absolute raucous game to be apart of. There is a reason why the Mountaineers are only 7 point underdogs uponthe opening though the line is rising. This is the toughest offense thisdefense has faced all year in Oklahoma and the Mountaineers are very familiarwith Oklahoma. West Virginia was depleted with injuries last year so theystruggled and this entire coaching staff is on the hot seat coming into thisyear. The win at Maryland was a huge win for this school as a Bowl game is allthey are looking for this year. But then again, with great senior quarterbackleadership, this team is healthier and has the weapons to do well as theyshowed against Alabama. Just to give you some reference, the line last year was53.5 in this game and Oklahoma won 16-7. The line this year for this game setat 64 points and that should tell you all that you need to know. Despite itbeing low scoring last year when the total was set at 53.5, the line went upmore than 10 points and for good reason. West Virginia is going to be aphenomenal active underdog here, they are going to challenge and give Oklahomaabsolute everything they can handle and there is an outside shot they couldbeat them Outright at home. Either way, we will take our active underdog (seethe IC Page right hand corner for Active Dog/Over theory which we created andits famous and well used in the industry), as don't be surprised to see theactive dog push this game over in what should be a high scoring track meet withnothing left in the bag. Revenge, public fade, active dog/over, we'll take theOver in this contest as it should hit possibly in the mid 70's per our models.
3-Unit Selection. #377. Take Over 59 OregonState vs. San Diego State (Saturday @ 10:30pm est)
This is a good activedog situation here for San Diego State as they will likely give Oregon Statequite a lot to handle on the road. SDSU nearly beat Oregon St last year if youremember losing 34-30 (total set at 55) and now as an active underdog anddouble-digit underdog at that, in a late night contest with the public favoringSan Diego State here to a tune of 65/35, look for San Diego State to be a solidactive underdog here. Oregon State's defense is suspect at points giving up 30points to Hawaii as they were highly fortunate 8 point victory last week, lookfor State with revenge to do well, to bounce-back after a great performanceagainst UNC and their vaulted defense scoring 27 on the Tarheels. This is anoffense that is prolific as many of the top offenses in the country and withOregon State's weakness in the defensive backfield, this could be a highscoring affair and we'll roll with the Over here. Our models have this game at65.
3-Unit Selection. #366. Take Florida State-16 over Clemson (Saturday @ 8pm est)
We are aware ofWinston's status and that shouldn't surprise us at this point given the trackhistory. But, per this contest, this is a fantastic public fade with most ofthe public taking Clemson here to a tune of 62%. Even before the Winstonbenching, we liked FSU to win by 22 points per our models and we still do.Though Clemson has revenge, this team just does not have the defensive presenceas it used to in year's past. FSU's backup is quite competent and he shouldprovide a lift for a lot of these guys who are excited as this team like allteams missing a key player, will rally around here and likely play well.Revenge or no revenge, this is one of the best things that can happen here forJimbo, as the team rallies, increases their focus without Jameis and likelydoes well in this game and takes the public down with it. It's a night game aswell which increases the public perception on the sexier dog but what willlikely happen here is FSU rallies behind their backup and Jameis looks to addto the padding in the second half given that he thrives on adversity. FSUconsistently gets up for Clemson and outside of a rare occurrence against OhioState, Clemson has always struggled in the big game and they will have a bit ofa psyche let down with no Winston in the first half. Look for FSU to win bypossibly 3 touchdowns and surprise a lot of folks here.
3-Unit Selection. #384. Take Arkansas State-2 over Utah State (Saturday @ 7pm est)
We have ArkansasState winning this game by 6 points here so we'll roll with them after the poorshowing at Miami. This team should have done much better and they were stymiedhere and the public has that in mind and also the success of Utah State lastyear and their sexier name coming into this game. Good public fade, ArkansasState on the bounce-back here and classic let down spot here for this teamcoming off a big win against an ACC school in Wake. Note that Arkansas Statelost last week's ATS and prior to that were 7-2 ATS and this team rarely losesback to back ATS covers. Let's roll with Arkansas State here coming off a toughloss at Miami, getting up to play Utah State who comes off a big win and in aclassic let down spot.
7-Unit Selection.#368. Take BYU -14 over Virginia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
We're going to takeBYU here at home against Virginia. BYU played horrendously against Houston onnational television which is not too much of a surprise to us who follow BYUgiven that they were in for a classic let down after sweeping the season serieswith Texas. BYU just dominated the Longhorns over the last two years and indeedthe trap line was set the following week with Houston as only a 17 pointfavorite and everyone and their mother decided to take BYU because they assumedVegas continues to grow because its a generous establishment. But rather,Houston had revenge coming into the game and BYU in a let down spot on aThursday Night game to boot. The essence of this selection is that we have BYUwinning by up around 19 points here as they bounce-back against a decentVirginia team on the rise. Virginia has played a very tough schedule to startthe season including UCLA and Louisville at home. This is a classic let downspot here for this team at home as they face BYU who played poorly in theirlast game and Virginia coming off a big win. The line is bit here as though ateam beat a top 25 team at home, BYU gets up for these type of games as theyhave ramped up their overall schedule playing much better teams and as theyhost Virginia, they will be more than ready to beat down on a Virginia team whowill help their poll numbers very much given that they just beat Louisville.Classic let down spot here for Virginia, tough place to play here after a bigwin and BYU did not look that dominant against Houston in their last contestand have a lot of motivation to do well here as the public likely takes a hithere as they favor Virginia and the points. Let's roll with BYU in theirtraditional element of getting up for bigger teams as they were looking ahead fromHouston to this contest in Virginia.
7-Unit Selection. #356. Navy -6 over Rutgers (Saturday@ 3:30pm est) Fantastic spot herefor Navy as they face Rutgers here. Rutgers is greatly overvalued according toour models as have them falling short in this game and Navy is undervalued aswe have them winning this game by double-digits - around 10 points. Rutgerscomes off a tight win against Penn State who managed to Push but that was atough game for Penn State in a lot of ways sandwiched in. Now, Navy gets toface this team as people's opinion of Rutgers is high after that Navy game butits a trap considering how good Navy is. Rutgers beat this team by just 1 pointlast year 21-20 and this is a huge revenge for our men in the military. Navy isa perfect 2-0 as favorites this year as they beat Temple and Texas State twostrong opponents and hung tough against Ohio State. Rutgers comes off a toughloss to Penn State and it will be very difficult for them to "get-up"for Navy if you will. Navy has revenge, the public is high on Rutgers afterthat tough contest against Penn State, Navy returns home and after fallingshort to Ohio State earlier this year they are ready to give those fans whosupport them a big win as the public also takes a hit here as this is a qualitypublic fade to boot. Let's roll with Navy who has the potential to win thiscontest by double-digits as this could be a fairly easier win than most predictas Rutgers is the same defense that gave up 25 points to Howard and though thisRutgers team is decent on offense, what does it say about Navy being favored by3 points on the road at Temple - after Temple beat Vanderbilt on the road in arout? Let's roll with Navy here as they likely win by 10 points per our modelsthis evening.
6-Unit Selection. #389. Over 64 West Virginiavs. Oklahoma (Saturday @ 7pm est)
Watch out Oklahoma,you could lose this game Outright. West Virginia is in a great spot here asthey host Oklahoma at home in what should be an absolute raucous game to be apart of. There is a reason why the Mountaineers are only 7 point underdogs uponthe opening though the line is rising. This is the toughest offense thisdefense has faced all year in Oklahoma and the Mountaineers are very familiarwith Oklahoma. West Virginia was depleted with injuries last year so theystruggled and this entire coaching staff is on the hot seat coming into thisyear. The win at Maryland was a huge win for this school as a Bowl game is allthey are looking for this year. But then again, with great senior quarterbackleadership, this team is healthier and has the weapons to do well as theyshowed against Alabama. Just to give you some reference, the line last year was53.5 in this game and Oklahoma won 16-7. The line this year for this game setat 64 points and that should tell you all that you need to know. Despite itbeing low scoring last year when the total was set at 53.5, the line went upmore than 10 points and for good reason. West Virginia is going to be aphenomenal active underdog here, they are going to challenge and give Oklahomaabsolute everything they can handle and there is an outside shot they couldbeat them Outright at home. Either way, we will take our active underdog (seethe IC Page right hand corner for Active Dog/Over theory which we created andits famous and well used in the industry), as don't be surprised to see theactive dog push this game over in what should be a high scoring track meet withnothing left in the bag. Revenge, public fade, active dog/over, we'll take theOver in this contest as it should hit possibly in the mid 70's per our models.
3-Unit Selection. #377. Take Over 59 OregonState vs. San Diego State (Saturday @ 10:30pm est)
This is a good activedog situation here for San Diego State as they will likely give Oregon Statequite a lot to handle on the road. SDSU nearly beat Oregon St last year if youremember losing 34-30 (total set at 55) and now as an active underdog anddouble-digit underdog at that, in a late night contest with the public favoringSan Diego State here to a tune of 65/35, look for San Diego State to be a solidactive underdog here. Oregon State's defense is suspect at points giving up 30points to Hawaii as they were highly fortunate 8 point victory last week, lookfor State with revenge to do well, to bounce-back after a great performanceagainst UNC and their vaulted defense scoring 27 on the Tarheels. This is anoffense that is prolific as many of the top offenses in the country and withOregon State's weakness in the defensive backfield, this could be a highscoring affair and we'll roll with the Over here. Our models have this game at65.
3-Unit Selection. #366. Take Florida State-16 over Clemson (Saturday @ 8pm est)
We are aware ofWinston's status and that shouldn't surprise us at this point given the trackhistory. But, per this contest, this is a fantastic public fade with most ofthe public taking Clemson here to a tune of 62%. Even before the Winstonbenching, we liked FSU to win by 22 points per our models and we still do.Though Clemson has revenge, this team just does not have the defensive presenceas it used to in year's past. FSU's backup is quite competent and he shouldprovide a lift for a lot of these guys who are excited as this team like allteams missing a key player, will rally around here and likely play well.Revenge or no revenge, this is one of the best things that can happen here forJimbo, as the team rallies, increases their focus without Jameis and likelydoes well in this game and takes the public down with it. It's a night game aswell which increases the public perception on the sexier dog but what willlikely happen here is FSU rallies behind their backup and Jameis looks to addto the padding in the second half given that he thrives on adversity. FSUconsistently gets up for Clemson and outside of a rare occurrence against OhioState, Clemson has always struggled in the big game and they will have a bit ofa psyche let down with no Winston in the first half. Look for FSU to win bypossibly 3 touchdowns and surprise a lot of folks here.
3-Unit Selection. #384. Take Arkansas State-2 over Utah State (Saturday @ 7pm est)
We have ArkansasState winning this game by 6 points here so we'll roll with them after the poorshowing at Miami. This team should have done much better and they were stymiedhere and the public has that in mind and also the success of Utah State lastyear and their sexier name coming into this game. Good public fade, ArkansasState on the bounce-back here and classic let down spot here for this teamcoming off a big win against an ACC school in Wake. Note that Arkansas Statelost last week's ATS and prior to that were 7-2 ATS and this team rarely losesback to back ATS covers. Let's roll with Arkansas State here coming off a toughloss at Miami, getting up to play Utah State who comes off a big win and in aclassic let down spot.
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