9-20-14

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Pure lock:

Wf

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BIG MONEY: Clemson

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JAMES JONES

NCAAF – South Alabama(+3)-107…(3*)

NCAAF – North Carolina(+2.5)-113…(2*)

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS

#335: Utah: +3.5 (-105) (1*)

#369/370: Under Illinois: 61.5 (-105) (1*)

#386: New Mexico State: +3.0 (-105) (1.5*)

#387: Miami, Fl: +8.0 (-105) (2*)

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EXECUTIVE

350--navy
350--ore st

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King Creole | CFB Total

327 Tulane / 328 Duke OVER 58.0
Analysis: double-dime bet

TULANE GREEN WAVE @ DUKE BLUE DEVILS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 58 or le‡ss

Game One:
The last meeting between these two teams totaled 75 points, and we see a similar outcome on Saturday afternoon as Duke hosts the Green Wave at 12:30pm ET. The Blue Devils are all ‘geeked up’ to start the season with 4 straight wins for the first time in 20 years. That’s off the heels of a 38-point pasting of Kansas last week in which Duke scored 41 points and took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. They should have no problem surpassing the 511 offensive yards in that game… particularly against this week Tulane defense. The Duke offense already ranks 3rd in the ACC in total yards per game (510) and 4th in points scored per game (42.3). They tend to beat up losing teams at home… going perfect 5-0 O/U in the last 2 years as hosts against LOSING (< .500 opponents). Also 14-3 O/U after accumulating 450+ yards lot offense in their last game.

With the current point spread and OU line, the predicted score in this game according to oddsmakers is Duke 36 / Tulane 19. Our database suggests that BOTH teams will eclipse those conservative estimates. We’ve got the final score finishing in the range of DUKE 42 / TULANE 24. That combined total of 66 points is about 8 points higher than the current OU line.

Tulane has scored their share of points this season as well. They got out to a 28-3 lead in last week’s win… and also took their feet of the gas in the second half (only 7 points). QN Tanner Lee threw for 238 yards and 3 TD’s. What’s been hurt Tulane this season (and could contribute in HELPING us on Saturday) is their tendency to turn the ball over and create quick scoring opportunities for the other teams (3 turnovers last week). They’ve already turned the ball over 8 times in their three games this season. And it’s certainly no coincidence that the Green Wave has already gone a PERFECT 3-0 O/U this year.
Pick Made: Sep 19 2014 9:41AM PST



307 Indiana / 308 Missouri OVER 70.5
Analysis: double-dime bet

4:00pm ET – 1:00pm PT / #307
INDIANA HOOSIERS @ MISSOURI TIGERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU Line: 71 or less

Game Two:
This looks to be one of the highest scoring NON-conference games on the Saturday schedule. And it better be, as the linesmakers have set the (OU) bar in the high side (around 71 pts). Just like last season, when the Missouri / Indiana OU line was at 70.5 points. The final score in that game was 45 to 28. This season’s meeting between the SEC and BIG 10 could very well hit 80 or more points…. given the fact that both teams have explosive quick-strike offenses piloted by outstanding quarterbacks. Can they go toe-to-toe versus each other? Yes. Indiana’s game against MAC for Bowling Green totaled 87 points last week (OU line was in the similar range {75}). The HOOSIERS are on a 20-8 O/U in road games over the last 2+ seasons… 16-5 O/U after allowing 40+ pts in their last game… 6-1 O/U in September… and 5-1 O/U after passing for 280+ yards in their last game.
Indiana’s piss-poor defense has allowed 46.7 in their last 15 games over the last 1+ seasons. Based on the point spread and OU line, the predicted final score in this one is Missouri 42.5 / Indiana 28.5. My queries into the Playbook database point to an even HIGHER-scoring outcome. In this case, MISSOURI 48 / INDIANA 34. That combined total of 82 points is about 10 points higher than the current OU line.

No individual in the country has been more responsible for more points this season than Missouri QB Matt Mauk. He’s already tied with two other QBS for the national lead in TD passes (12) and has a rushing score to account for a NCAA-best 78 points. Prior to last week, the Tigers had already started the season with a 2-0 O/U record. Last week;s game against Central Florida broke that streak, but we’re talking an offensively-challned opponent (Knights). That’s not the case against Indiana, and their explosive and dominant QB (Nate Sudfield) and his right-hand man (RB Te‡vin Coleman).
Pick Made: Sep 19 2014 9:40AM PST

363 Oregon / 364 Washington St. – OVER 75.0
Analysis: double-dime bet
10:30pm ET – 7:30pm PT / #363

OREGON DUCKS @ WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 75 or less

Game Three:
Our final game has up finishing up in Pacific Northwest country… in a big PAC 12 game. We were on the OVER in Washington State’s first home game of the year (vs Rutgers), and were rewarded with a winner by +18 points. In fact, the Cougars are already 2-0 O/U in their home games this season. Now, they get to take on a team that they’ve gone 4-0 O/U in the last 4 meetings …and 6-1 O/U in the last seven. Last year’s Oregon / Washington State game had an OU line of 71.5 points. Both teams combined for real nice ‘round’ number of 100 (final score was 62 to 38). Average total points in the last four games is 78.5. Both of these teams are averaging 550 or more total offensive yards per game already (Wash St: 557 / Oregon 573). The host COUGARS are a great September OVER team (36-13-2 O/U). Also 8-1 O/U off a SU win of 20 > pts… and 5-0 O/U at home vs opponents with a winning (> .500) road record.

Like our second game, the bar has been set HIGH for this Pac 12 game. Based on the point spread and OU line, the predicted score accruing to lines makers is Oregon 49.5 / Washington State 25.5. After querying the database, and checking out the Duck’s numbe‡rs versus this foe… our simulations have this game ending with the final score of: OREGON 56 / WASHINGTON STATE 31. That’s 87 points… which is about 10-11 points higher than the current OU line.

So we already know we’ll get our fair share of points from the visiting Ducks. They’ve scored 46 or more in all three games this season already. They’re led by the current FAVORITE to win the Heisman Trophy (Marcus Mariota). Their magic number appears to be 52. The Ducks are averaging 52.0 ppg this year… and have averaged 52.0 in their last versus the Cougars. What separates them this week is the strength of the Wash St passing offense. After all, Oregon is already ranked #92 in the country in passing yards allowed per game. And they take on a QB in Connor Halliday who leads the nation in several passing categories including TD passes (12) and yards (1465). And he’s averaged a whopping 58 passes per game. The Cougars pass / run ratio have been 77% PASSES and only 23% runs!
Pick Made: Sep 19 2014 9:42AM PST

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LARRY NESS

Colorado
Navy
Arkansas St

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seabass picks
400 maryland
400 miss st
400 tex a&m
200 byu
200 north carolina
200 west virg
200 no ill
100 miami
100 navy
CFL
300 edmunton over

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SPORTSBOSS


Colorado Buffs

[DaKid]

Big Al?

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football jesus : arizona

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Asa 5-byu, 4-mia fl, 3-rice, miss st over

big money clem

doc's enterprises 6-utah, 4-colo, oreg, okla, ariz

dr. Bob 3- ga sou, 2- louis under, 1- t a&m under, e car, 2- oreg over

gameday 4- byu, 3-boise, 2-iowa, nc, utah, miss st

harry bondi 5-vt, 4-mem, 3-mia fl, iowa

inside info 3-akron, 2-wisc

jack jones 20- iowa, va, nc, 15- ind, ga st, wv, ala under

joe d 25-wf, 20-t a&m, wyo, so car, duke, 15- oreg, troy, fla, cal

lenny stevens 20-colo, byu, 10-iowa, nc

neri 3-so car, colo, ore, ark, boise

northcoast 4-colo, ark, rice, 3- nc, vt

pick city 4-mizz, 3-byu, t a&m, 2- hou, ala under, vt, fla

pointwise. 4- boise, colo, 3-wv, byu, miss st, neb, fla atl,
2- ga sou, cal, syr

preferred picks 3-iowa, nc, no ill

pure lock wf

texas sportswire 4-miss st, 3- army, gtech, ga sou, cal

underdog nc

wildcat 10- mid tn st, 7- navy over, 5- ball st

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The Wager Wire / Wage Discipline

968 Baltimore Orioles | ML -177 | 1u

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Jlb sports info

$300 *cfb* missouri -13 (-110)

$400 umass +28 (buy pt) (-130)

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Diamond Dog


MLB
#979: Phillies: +195 (2.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Williams/Pomeranz




#957/958: Nationals/Marlins: Over 6.5 (-105) (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Zimmermann/Cosart


#973/974: White Sox/Rays: Over 7.5 (+105) (3.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Noesi/Archer