9-25-14

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Today's NFL Picks

NY Giants at Washington

The Redskins look to bounce back from their 37-34 loss to the Eagles last weekend and come into Thursday's contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Washington is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/24)

Game 101-102: NY Giants at Washington (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.825; Washington 135.517 Dunkel Line: Washington by 9 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

The Red Raiders head to Stillwater following a 49-28 loss to Arkansas at home and come into the contest with a 10-4-1 ATS record in their last 15 games following a double-digit home defeat. Texas Tech is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+14). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/24)

Game 103-104: Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 63.327; Georgia Southern 84.483 Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 21; 64 Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 17 1/2; 59 Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-17 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 86.506; Oklahoma State 96.484 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 10; 67 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 14; 71 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+14); Under

Game 107-108: UCLA at Arizona State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 101.265; Arizona State 92.612 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 8 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: UCLA by 4; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-4); Under

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Nolimitsportspicks

Arizona st + 5.5

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bookiemonsters

POD
UCLA -4

MGs
TEX TECH +14.5
SEA +110
BOS +110

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Dr. Bob

(104) GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-16 ½)

3-Stars at -17 or less
2-Stars up to -20
1-Star up to -21

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Gilztips

Arizona state over 30.5 (1st half)

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Maddux Sports

10* Washington Redskins -3

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BEN BURNS

NFL BEST BET Giants

CFB
Main Event Texas Tech
Customer Apprec. Special! Appalachian State

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Baseball Crusher
Miami Marlins -127 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 102-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 102-72

Rest of the Plays
New York Yankees -132 over Baltimore O's
Tampa Bay Rays -123 over Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals -132 over Chicago White Sox

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Football Crusher
Arizona State +4 over UCLA
(System Record: 9-1, won last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 9-8-1


Rest of the Plays
Texas Tech +13.5 over Oklahoma State
Appalachian State + Georgia Southern UNDER 60
Washington Redskins -3.5 over New York Giants

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Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + River Plate UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 636-22, won last game)
Overall Record: 636-532-95

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Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson

The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week highlighted by key matchups in the Big XII and Pac-12. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State face off in an opening conference game for both teams after 2-1 starts to the season and this will be a key game in the conference pecking order for two programs expected to slide a bit downward this season despite great success in the last decade.

Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma
Date: Thursday, September 25, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Oklahoma State -14
Last Meeting: 2013, Oklahoma State (PK) 52-34 at Texas Tech

Both teams were ranked in the top 18 of the polls last season when Oklahoma State visited the then 7-1 Red Raiders last season. Texas Tech had just suffered its first loss of the season to Oklahoma in a tight game and Oklahoma State stormed out to a 21-0 lead before Texas Tech crept within four by halftime with the help of a defensive touchdown. Ultimately the balanced offense for Oklahoma State was too much as the Cowboys pulled away in a game where Texas Tech had more yards.

That loss wound up being the second of five straight losses to close the regular season for Texas Tech after a 7-0 start but the Red Raiders did get a redeeming Holiday Bowl win over Arizona State. Oklahoma State wound up with a 10-2 regular season but they surrendered the Big XII title and a possible BCS bowl spot losing to Oklahoma in the season finale and then wound up losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. With the season opening loss to Florida State this year it marked the first time since Mike Gundy’s first season in 2005 that the program had lost three consecutive games.

With very few starters back from last season’s team most have projected a fall for Oklahoma State this season and the Cowboys were a heavy underdog in the opening week game with Florida State in Arlington. Oklahoma State lost but earned a lot of respect in the defeat, taking the defending national champions down to the wire in a 37-31 game, rallying back from an early 17-0 deficit. Oklahoma State responded with wins in the next two weeks, although the 40-23 win over FCS Missouri State was not thoroughly impressive. The 43-13 win over Texas San Antonio was much more credible however as the Roadrunners have a strong veteran team that beat Houston and took Arizona to a three-point game in their other contests.

Junior quarterback J.W. Walsh was given a shot to start for the Cowboys last season but he eventually conceded the lead role to Clint Chelf. After a strong opening game this season Walsh unfortunately injured his foot in the game versus Missouri State, leaving junior Daxx Garman in charge of the Cowboys offense. Garman has filled in admirably with 559 passing yards and no interceptions but he is nowhere near the rushing threat that Walsh was and the competition will escalate in Big XII play.

Oklahoma State will face a Texas Tech defense that has allowed nearly 37 points per game this season despite a reasonably favorable schedule. Allowing 49 points against Arkansas is one thing but UTEP posted 26 points and Central Arkansas posted 35 points in narrow wins for the Red Raiders. The defensive staff is in flux right now as defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt resigned last week with speculation that the move was related to substance abuse rather than performance. Outside linebackers coach Mike Smith has taken over the defense for the rest of the season under second year head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Texas Tech still possesses one of the great passing offenses in the nation and sophomore quarterback Davis Webb has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in three games. He does have four interceptions already this season and he did struggle with less than 55 percent completions in his lone road start this season. The Red Raiders are aiming to be a bit more balanced offensively this season so far rushing for over 170 yards per game after averaging fewer than 120 yards per game on the ground last season.

For both teams the strength of the team and the coaching staff are on offense and both teams returned very few key experienced players on defense this season. Over the last three seasons this matchup has averaged nearly 80 points per game with Oklahoma State now having won and covered in five straight seasons in this series and another higher scoring game seems likely to kick off the college football weekend.

Line Movement: The line opened at -15 before falling to -13 and bouncing back to -14.

Texas Tech Historical Trends: Texas Tech has lost S/U & ATS in five straight meetings in this series while going 1-8 ATS vs. Oklahoma State since 2005. The Red Raiders are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2005 and 4-12 ATS coming off a S/U loss since 2011. The Red Raiders are just 3-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2010.

Oklahoma State Historical Trends: Oklahoma State is 85-62-1 ATS at home since 2002 and 41-18 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2002. In that span Oklahoma State is impressively 29-10 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. The Cowboys are 4-0 S/U & ATS in the last four home meetings with Texas Tech going back to 2005.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern 7:30 PM ET (ESPNU)
Line: Georgia Southern -16

These FBS newcomers played regularly as Southern Conference members at the FCS level. Georgia Southern is the heavy favorite this week and this is a team that has made some noise already this season with a 2-2 start including a 28-6 win at South Alabama last week while also giving great scares to both NC State and Georgia Tech in narrow losses.

It is Appalachian State that has won the last three meetings between these programs however, including a 38-14 win last season with the Mountaineers posting 515 yards against the Eagles team that would eventually upset Florida late last season. Appalachian State is 1-2 this season with only a win over lowly FCS Campbell. In the hyped opening game with Michigan the Mountaineers did not compete well and last week with a great opportunity for a win the Mountaineers fell 21-20 against Southern Miss on the road. That was a game where Appalachian State had significant yardage edges and many great scoring opportunities but wound up missing three field goals. Despite the kicking woes the Mountaineers went for the tie upon scoring late and the cowardly move was punished with a blocked extra point to seal the defeat.

Georgia Southern is rushing for 357 yards per game this season, the second best mark nationally at this point in the season and this is even with the loss of running back Jerick McKinnon to the NFL. Appalachian State has been a bit more balanced and last week highly regarded redshirt freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb got his first start and played the full game, leading a productive attack but one that failed to cash in on several opportunities.


UCLA at Arizona State 10:00 PM ET (FOX1)
Line: UCLA -5½

Two undefeated Pac-12 South contenders face off Thursday night in what should be one of the bigger games of the Pac-12 season but injuries have soured the appeal of the game. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has been banged up with an elbow issue but is expected to play but senior Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly has been ruled out with a foot injury. Kelly had a brilliant season leading the Sun Devils to the division title last season and he will be replaced by senior Mike Bercovici who has played sparingly.

Last season Arizona State won 38-33 at UCLA in a matchup of top 20 teams late in the season in a game that clinched the division title for the Sun Devils. Arizona State had a modest yardage edge but benefitted from a defensive touchdown to build a 35-13 lead at halftime before UCLA made a valiant comeback that fell just short. UCLA opened the season projected as a national title contender but in a 3-0 S/U and 0-3 ATS start the Bruins have had underwhelming offensive numbers. The schedule has featured quality opposition but more was expected of a team with great experience coming off last season’s 10-3 campaign highlighted by blowout wins over USC and Virginia Tech to close the year.

Outside of Kelly the Sun Devils have one of the least experienced teams in the conference but Todd Graham did pull in some quality transfers to boost the squad. Arizona State is 3-0 but the schedule has been weak and the defense has looked vulnerable against questionable competition. UCLA has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings in this series but Arizona State has won S/U in four of the last seven meetings and the Bruins are just 25-37 ATS as a road favorite since 1988.

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UCLA, ASU clash in the desert

UCLA BRUINS (3-0) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (3-0)
Line & Total: Arizona State -5.5, Total: 59.5

Thursday night will be a huge night in determining the Pac-12 conference, as No. 11 UCLA travels to Tempe to take on No. 15 Arizona State.

Quarterback play is big in any game, but it may be even more important on Thursday night. In a 20-17 victory against Texas on Sept. 13, Bruins star QB Brett Hundley left the game early with an arm injury, but Jerry Neuheisel was able to come in and get the victory for the team. Right now, UCLA has not commented on who will be the starting quarterback in this game.

However, for Arizona State, QB Taylor Kelly will not start after suffering a foot injury. That means junior QB Mike Bercovici will get the start for the Sun Devils. While the Bruins (0-3 ATS) have not been dominant early in the season, winning all three of their games by a combined 18 points, the Sun Devils (1-2 ATS) have done a good job of taking care of business by winning all three of their games by at least 14 points.

This series has been tight since 1992 with ASU holding a 10-9 SU advantage, and UCLA having the 9-8-2 ATS edge. The Sun Devils hold a 5-3 SU edge at home in this timeframe with the clubs splitting the games 4-4 ATS. The past three meetings have been decided by a total of eight points with the Bruins winning 29-28 in 2011 and 45-43 in 2012 before falling at home to ASU last year, 38-33.

This series also has led to a lot of high-scoring games, as 11 of the past 17 meetings have finished Over the total. While UCLA is 49-31 ATS (61%) in September games since 1992, Arizona State's Todd Graham is 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less as a college head coach.

Bruins LB Myles Jack (ankle) and Sun Devils DB Ezekiel Bishop (undisclosed) headline the list of players who are questionable for this game.

The Bruins were able to find out they have a quality backup after QB Jerry Neuheisel’s performance against Texas when he completed 23-of-30 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns. While he showed he can win, going on the road in conference play is much more difficult. If QB Brett Hundley (686 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) is unable to go for the Bruins, they lose a guy at the quarterback position who can make plays with both his arm and his legs (74 rush yards, 1 TD).

If Neuheisel is playing quarterback, that means UCLA will have to get a big performance from RB Paul Perkins (304 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 2 TD). Perkins also does a nice job of catching the ball out in the flat with nine grabs for 80 yards this season. The air attack of UCLA has been strong this year with 288.0 passing YPG (32nd in nation), but the ground game must continue to improve upon its 159.0 rushing YPG (73rd in FBS). Whoever is playing quarterback will have a talented wide receiver to throw to in Jordan Payton (19 catches, 266 yards, 1 TD). He is a big, athletic receiver that is not scared to go over the middle, and was the target that Neuheisel connected with to win the game with 3:00 remaining versus Texas.

Like the offense, there is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but this unit has had its struggles as well. The Bruins rank 60th in FBS in points allowed (24.0 PPG), but a big portion of that was given up against Memphis in a 42-35 win on Sept. 6. LB Myles Jack (26 tackles, 2 PD) is one of the elite players in all of the country, but he injured his ankle in the Texas game, and like with Hundley, the Bruins have not said what his status is for Thursday. LB Erik Kendricks (37 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler on the UCLA defense.

For the Sun Devils, who have the No. 7 scoring offense in the nation (47.0 PPG), adjusting to life without QB Taylor Kelly (625 pass yards, 168 rush yards, 7 total TD) won't be easy. Kelly is similar to Hundley in that he can make plays in all areas of the game.

While QB Mike Bercovici (14-for-24, 112 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in career) does not have a lot of experience, he does have one of the elite ball carriers in the country on his team in RB D.J. Foster (510 rush yards, 9.4 YPC, 5 TD). Foster is a threat every time he touches the ball, and he can also create a lot of havoc in the screen game as well.

At wide receiver, the Sun Devils have another one of the top FBS players in junior WR Jaelen Strong (19 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD). At 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, he is a matchup nightmare at the position. He is too big and strong for corners, but ASU can line him in the slot, where he will run away from safeties. For Bercovici being inexperienced, he will look for Strong early and often in this game.

DB Damarious Randall (26 tackles) is the leading tackler on the 38th-ranked scoring defense (20.3 PPG) in the country. Like the Sun Devils offense, the defense is a unit that relies heavily on speed. DB Jordan Simone had an interception in the win against Colorado, and these guys will have to be ready to defend against Payton as one of their mates in the secondary, DB Ezekiel Bishop, may be out due to injury.

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Game of the Day: UCLA at Arizona State

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (+4.5, 59.5)

Arizona State will have to get by without its starting quarterback when the No. 12 Sun Devils host No. 10 UCLA in a key Pac-12 contest on Thursday night. Taylor Kelly remains sidelined with a right foot injury suffered Sept. 13 against Colorado, the last time the Sun Devils played a game. UCLA might also have to go with a backup as quarterback Brett Hundley remains questionable with an injury to his non-throwing elbow, which occurred in a Sept. 13 win versus Texas.

In the absence of Kelly, Mike Bercovici will make his first collegiate start for Arizona State and he’s familiar to UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone, who recruited him when he was an assistant coach at Arizona State under former head coach Dennis Erickson. If Hundley is unable to play against the Sun Devils, the Bruins would likely start Jerry Neuheisel, son of former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, but coach Jim Mora also indicated freshman Asiantii Woulard might get some action behind center. Hundley would certainly be missed, as he has completed 70.4 percent of his passes through three games, accounting for 686 yards and three touchdowns through the air.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Sun Devils as 5.5-point home dogs, but that now sits +4.

INJURY REPORT: UCLA - QB Brett Hundley (Probable, elbow), OL Jake Brendel (Questionable, knee), OL Conor McDermott (Questionable, undisclosed). Arizona State - DE Ezekiel Bishop (Questionable, undisclosed).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-90s with clear skies.

POWER RANKINGS: UCLA (-15.5) - Arizona State (-14.5) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona State -2

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Status of both starting quarterbacks (UCLA’s Brett Hundley questionable; Arizona State’s Taylor Kelly out) has put line on this contest in question. Bruins will look to snap a gnarly 0-8 ATS road record when seeking conference revenge (lost, 38-33, to ASU last season) while the Sun Devils look to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2007 in this battle of PAC-12 South division leaders." March Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “As we expected, the betting community believes the underdog on national TV has a good chance to upset. We’re in the mid 60s as far as percentile for ASU side and moneyline. This spread has slowly crept down after a small initial jump and we just moved to +3.5. I won’t be surprised if this one closes at a field goal.” John Lester.

ABOUT UCLA (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Bruins have found little room in the run game this season but one of the few bright spots has been the play of Paul Perkins, who has rushed for 304 yards and three touchdowns this season. He posted the first 100-yard rushing game of his career in the win against Texas, finishing with 126 yards on 24 carries, and his bruising running style should wear on the Sun Devils. UCLA returned its top four rushers from last season but are still looking for Jordon James and Myles Jack to flash the elusiveness they showed a year ago.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): De’Marieya Nelson caught seven passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns last season but the 6-3, 224-pound senior is expected to see more action at linebacker than tight end against the Bruins. He had 16 tackles on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, forced two fumbles and recovered another. Nelson is also a key special-teams player for the Sun Devils, making him one of the rare three-way stars of college football.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Sun Devils last six games following a bye week.
* Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of wagers are backing Arizona State.