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NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports Take #258 Indianapolis (-7) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 28) We are off to one of the best football starts you will ever see, hitting over 70 percent of our selections (15-6) for nearly $6,000 in football profit. We are coming right back with an 8-Unit NFL Play on Thursday night and are looking to go 12-1 on our plays of 5.0 or higher so far this season. We’ve been good. The Tennessee Titans have not been good. The Colts, meanwhile, are looking to beat up on another AFC South team, like they did versus Jacksonville last weekend. The Titans just won’t have the firepower to keep up with the Colts as Indy wins this one going away 34-14. Indy’s wideouts will have a field day versus the Titans secondary just as AJ Green did last weekend. The Bengals marched up and down the field last Sunday versus Tennessee, and it will look eerily similar this Sunday in Indy. Tennessee is just 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games versus the AFC South, 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. The Colts, meanwhile, are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a losing record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus the AFC South.
Play New York Mets -140 over Houston---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll)
1:10 PM EST
Houston has lost 50 of the last 78 games when playing on a Sunday and they have lost 45 of the last 76 games when playing in the month of September. Houston has lost 34 of the last 53 inter-league games and they have lost 92 of the last 139 day games.
Play Washington -155 over Miami---Top Play (Risk 5% of your Bankroll) 1:30 PM EST
Miami has lost 48 of the last 80 games when playing in the month of September and they have lost 44 of the last 77 games when playing on a Sunday. Miami has lost 84 of the last 121 games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have lost 91 of the last 153 day games.
SUNDAY FOOTBALL 5000* Play Green Bay -2 over Chicago (TOP NFL PLAY) Chicago has lost 10 of the last 12 games against the spread vs. division opponents and they have lost 12 of the last 16 home games against the spread. Chicago has lost 7 of the last 9 games against the spread coming off two or more OVER the totals and they have lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
5000* Play Houston -3 over Buffalo (TOP NFL PLAY) Buffalo has lost 11 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a home game and they have lost 64 of the last 100 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games.Buffalo has lost 23 of the last 34 games against the spread when playing as a road underdog of three points or less and they have lost 45 of the last 88 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals.
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50* Play Carolina +3 over Baltimore (TOP NFL PLAY) 50* Play Philadelphia +4.5 over San Francisco (TOP NFL PLAY) 50* Play Dallas +3 over New Orleans (TOP NFL PLAY)
1000* Play Washington -155 over Miami (TOP MLB PLAY)
Jordan Zimmermann has won 34 of the last 40 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 13 of the last 15 games when pitching in the month of September. Jordan Zimmermann has won 27 of the last 40 games vs. division opponents and he has won 35 of the last 50 home games.
Miami is 41-62 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points Miami is 43-60 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games Miami is 74-83 ATS coming off a loss in their last game
10* Play Carolina +3 over Baltimore (Top NFL Play)
Carolina is 8-1 ATS when playing as a road underdog Carolina is 5-1 ATS after having won two of the last three games Carolina is 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their last game
10* Play Green Bay -1.5 over Chicago (Top NFL Play)
Chicago is 2-10 ATS vs. division opponents the last two seasons Chicago is 4-12 ATS in home games the last three seasons Chicago is 2-7 ATS coming off two or more OVER the totals
10* Play Dallas +3 over New Orleans (Top NFL Play)
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when playing as a road favorite New Orleans is 6-12 ATS in road games when the total posted is greater than 45.5 points New Orleans has lost two of the last three games against the spread
10* Play Washington -150 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY) Miami is 32-48 when playing in the month of September Miami is 33-44 when playing on a Sunday Miami is 37-84 when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher
10* Play New York Mets -140 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY) Houston is 28-50 when playing on a Sunday Houston is 31-45 when playing in the month of September Houston is 19-34 when playing in an inter-league game
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5* Play NY Yankees -110 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY) 5* Play Milwaukee -165 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
Kevin's Pick(s): Thanks to a couple 8th inning runs we picked up a run line WINNER with the Giants yesterday. Today is the last day of the regular season and there are some interesting games to watch with Seattle able to force a a "Game 163" with a win and Athletics loss. Two picks for me today... 2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers - BREWERS -1.5 (+130)
Listed Pitchers: Turner vs Fiers
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.60 units) 2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers - DODGERS -1.5 (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Bergman vs Greinke
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Kevin's Pick(s): 2 UNIT = Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears - PACKERS -1 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units) Kyle's Pick(s)2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens - PANTHERS +3.5 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
I guess the consensus among the public after the Panthers took a beating in primetime is that they are suddenly a bad team. Hold on a second. This is the same team that finished 2nd in total defense last season, and while their numbers are skewed this season due to the 37 points they gave up a year ago, this is still a very good defense. The week prior they gave up just 7 points to a very good Detroit offense. The Panthers' defense should respond after getting embarrassed against the Steelers in that matchup and come back to being a team that allowed only 15 points per game in 2013. I give an edge to the Panthers in the defensive department in this game, facing what I would call an average Ravens' defense. The defense is average, and the offense has taken a big step back since winning the Super Bowl. Of course Ray Rice is absent giving the rushing attack a less than desirable attack, but Joe Flacco and the passing game has looked shaky. The offense picked the defense up when they won the Super Bowl, but I don't think they have the offense to do that this season. Note that Flacco only has a quarterback rating of 82.3 heading into week 4. Despite getting shellacked a week ago, the Panthers' defense has allowed an average of only 202 yards per game through the air. I feel like this is a 3 point game either way. The Panthers' offense doesn't get me all that excited, but the defense should make life tough on Flacco Sunday afternoon. I expect a low-scoring contest with a field goal separating the Panthers and Ravens.
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