10-1-14

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358302

    #16
    Giants visit Pirates Wednesday in NL Wild Card
    By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


    SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (88-74) at PITTSBURGH PIRATES (88-74)


    National League Wild Card Game
    First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
    Line: San Francisco -105, Pittsburgh -105, Total: 6

    One game is all that separates the Giants and Pirates from moving on to the NLDS to face the Nationals, and the two 88-win clubs will meet Wednesday at PNC Park to determine which club extends its season.

    San Francisco had a tough task in the NL West competing with the Dodgers, who have the highest salary in the majors, playing to their potential, but the Giants easily grabbed a Wild Card spot despite going 4-6 over their final 10 games. They did nearly equally as well on offense (665 runs, 12th in league) and in pitching (3.50 ERA, 10th in league) while finishing off the season on a high note with a 9-3 victory over San Diego. C Buster Posey (.311 BA) has been tremendous all year long and comes into this game after going 9-for-25 (.360) with a homer, 3 RBI and three runs over his final seven games. Pittsburgh once again earned its way into the postseason after finishing with a 17-6 kick since Sept. 5, in which pitching reigned supreme by allowing a meager 1.7 runs per game in the victories. The Pirates had no trouble getting on base this year with the fifth-best average (.259) and third-best on-base percentage (.330) in the league. OF Andrew McCutchen (.314) has put together another phenomenal season and comes into this contest with an eight-game hitting streak in which he is 10-for-22 (.455) with two doubles, two home runs, 8 RBI and eight runs. The pitching matchup for this contest will peg LHP Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) of the Giants against RHP Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) of the host Pirates. San Francisco was solid on the road this season, going 43-38 (.531), but could have a lot of trouble against a Pittsburgh team that was 51-30 (.630) in the confines of its home ballpark. The Pirates have an 11-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons while going 6-3 at home and coming away victorious in 4-of-6 games this year. The Giants will be missing two of their veteran players for this one, as both 2B Marco Scutaro (back) and OF Angel Pagan (back) are out for the season, while Pittsburgh does not have any offensive players injured.

    Madison Bumgarner has been extremely consistent over the past four years with at least 13 wins, 200 innings and an ERA below 3.40 each season. In 2014, he has struck out a career-high 9.1 batters per nine innings while posting a career-low walk-rate (1.8 BB/9) which has led to the most wins he’s had in a single season (18). The lanky left-hander has helped his team earn a win in six of his past seven starts, but did poorly his last time out against the Dodgers when he allowed four runs on six hits (3 HR) in 7.1 frames while striking out five (0 walks) in a losing effort. Over his four career starts against the Pirates, Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and did not pitch well in his one outing against them this season (4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 K's, 2 BB's). Both 2B Neil Walker (3-for-9) and OF Josh Harrison (4-for-5, 1 HR) have done well in this matchup over limited at-bats while stud OF Andrew McCutchen is a mere 2-for-10 with a couple of strikeouts against Bumgarner. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding this season, going 32-14 (.696) with a 3.01 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while converting 46-of-64 (72%) save chances. Santiago Casilla (1.70 ERA, 19 saves) has a low strikeout-rate (6.9 K/9) for a closer and is 19-for-23 (83%) in his save opportunities on the year.

    Edinson Volquez was a welcome surprise for the Pirates’ rotation this season, as he recorded his most wins (13) since 2008 and had a career-best ERA of 3.04. To put into perspective how much of an improvement this was, consider that Volquez has had an ERA of 4.30 or worse in four of the past five seasons while walking at least 4.1 batters per nine innings each year. In 2014, he has allowed a career-low 3.3 BB/9, but may have benefited from some luck too, as batters hit a woeful .263 BABIP against him. Volquez has been torched by the Giants in his 11 career starts, going 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while striking out an impressive 9.5 batters per nine innings. Both 1B Brandon Belt (8-for-18, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (6-for-13, 3 doubles, 3 RBI) have done well in this matchup, while SS Brandon Crawford (3-for-20, 7 K's) has done poorly, and OF Hunter Pence (7-for-36, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 16 K's) is all-or-nothing. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been great this year, going 33-25 (.569) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but converting only 48-of-72 (67%) save chances. Closer Mark Melancon (1.90 ERA, 33 saves) has struck out one batter per inning while showing amazing control (1.4 BB/9). He has surrendered just two homers all year in his 71 frames (0.25 HR/9).
    Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

    Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
    Twitter@cpawsports


    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358302

      #17
      NL Wild Card Odds and Pick
      By: Micah Roberts

      After going through a 20-year drought of not making the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Pirates will make their second consecutive postseason appearance as they welcome the San Francisco Giants for Wednesday's NL Wild Card game. Pittsburgh comes in having won 17 of their last 23 while the Giants will be looking to repeat performances from the past two even-numbered years and win the World Series. The Washington Nationals await the winner in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday.

      San Francisco Giants (88-74) at Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
      Starters: Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)
      South Point line: Giants -113, 6 OV -115

      Season series: Pirates 4-2, 2-1 home and away, and there were some barn-burners.

      Line Movement: The Pirates opened -105 at the South Point sports book on Monday and quickly got bet up to -107, but in one big swoop they made the Giants the -110 favorite due to a combination of wagers and following the market. A few hours later, more Giants money came in and pushed the line to
      -113. That exact type of movement occurred at the Golden Nugget as well.

      Why we love the Giants: This team scraps and does all the little things right. They're just a flat-out good ball club. They're loaded with a locker room full of high-character guys like Hunter Pence and Buster Posey. Manager Bruce Bochy knows how to get the most out of his team and his instincts have been more right than wrong during the playoffs. They also seem to like playing on Wednesday's this season with an 18-7 record for +11 units. On the road, their 43-38 record returned +8.3 units.

      Why we hate the Giants: Bumgarner is terrific and he might be good enough to elevate them into the NLDS, but the rotation is nowhere close to as strong as it was in their championship seasons. They also don't run a lot; only 56 stolen bases on the season, the second fewest behind Baltimore (44). However, the bottom three in steals -- including the St. Louis Cardinals -- are all in the playoffs. The Giants are also missing key players such as Angel Pagan and Michael Morse. Matt Cain is out as well, but he never got on track all season when he was healthy. The Giants were 34-37 against winning teams.

      Why we like the Pirates: This team is actually very similar to the successful Giants World Series models. They're a scrappy bunch with a deep bullpen, deep rotation of quality arms, and they're great at the plate in key situations. Almost everyone in their lineup takes pitches, culminating in a third-place finish in on-base percentage (.330) behind the Dodgers and Tigers. We also love them at home, where they were 51-30 for +12.9 units of profit.

      Why we hate the Pirates: They have several good starters, but nobody like Bumgarner, a true ace with big game experience under his belt. While Francisco Liriano and Volquez are both on incredible runs heading into the playoffs, they're not playoff aces -- yet. The Pirates took advantage of a weak September schedule playing several last-place teams, but against winning teams over the entire season they were only 33-39 which translated to -6.4 units for bettors

      How has Volquez fared against Giants? He has a 2-2 record with a 5.72 ERA in 11 starts, a span in which his clubs went 3-8, but he didn't face the Giants in 2014. However, they haven't seen this version of Volquez, who is pitching better than ever. He's allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts and three or fewer in his last 12, which was good enough for manager Clint Hurdle to hand him the ball instead of Liriano on short rest. The Giants were 58-44 against right-handers this season for a +9.5 unit return.

      How has Bumgarner fared against Pittsburgh? He's 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts all-time, including July 28 at San Francisco when he was shut out 5-0 by Vance Worley. He was a -155 favorite in that game where the Bucs scored four in the first and followed with a Josh Harrison homer in the second. All four of his starts against Pittsburgh have stayed UNDER the total. Coming in, the Giants have won six of his past seven starts overall. The Pirates were 20-13 against lefties this season for a +3.5 unit return.

      Key Player for the Giants: Brandon Belt
      When the Giants' bats were collectively smoking the ball in April, Belt was a huge contributor with six homers and it looked like he might be headed for an All-Star invite, but that enthusiasm was short lived as he's been injured most of the season. However, he collected six hits during a four-game hitting streak to end the season and if he continues getting back into form, he could be a definite game changer.

      Key Player for the Pirates: Russell Martin
      He's been hobbled by a hamstring injury, and not coincidentally, the Pirates' losses over the weekend to the Reds were without Martin. Of all the players brought in to help the Pirates make the playoffs over the past two seasons, none can say they have had as a big of an impact as Martin. He's not only helped with his leadership and handling of pitchers, but also with his bat. How many catchers in baseball this season can say they're on base 40 percent of the time? MVP candidate Buster Posey can't even boast that. There's only one, and it's Martin.

      The Linemakers' lean: This is a big moment for Volquez and our hope is that he pitches better than his last playoff start which came as a member of the Reds back in 2010. He just happened to be on the wrong end of a Roy Halladay no-hitter. His recent play suggests he's not going to be hit upon too easily, and Bumgarner shouldn't allow too many runs either. The top play here is the game staying UNDER with a secondary play on the Pirates to win.
      Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

      Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
      Twitter@cpawsports


      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358302

        #18
        MLB

        Giants @ Pirates-- NL Wild Card
        Bumgarner is 5-1, 2.42 in his last seven starts; he allowed five runs in four IP in his only start vs Pirates this year. He is 3-2, 3.79 in six postseason starts.

        Volquez is 2-0, 1.54 in his last six starts; he allowed four iruns in 1.2 IP in his only postseason start, for Reds in '10. He didn't face Pittsburgh this season.

        Giants lost five of last six road games, are 4-6 in last ten overall; they won the World Series in 2010 and 2012.

        Pirates made playoffs last year for first time in 21 years- they've won 11 of their last 13 home games.

        Bumgarner 19-14....10-33 first inning
        Volquez 18-13.........8-31 first inning
        Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

        Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
        Twitter@cpawsports


        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358302

          #19
          STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT

          ***** Wednesday, 10/1/14 MLB Information *****
          (ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
          __________________________________________________ ___

          #947 SAN FRANCISCO @ #948 PITTSBURGH
          TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, ESPN
          Line: Pirates +105, Total: 6.5 -115

          The San Francisco Giants got a chance to line up their starting pitching in anticipation of a one-game wild card, and Madison Bumgarner is ready to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who host the Giants in the National League wild-card game Wednesday, fought until the final day of the regular season for the National League Central crown and did not get a chance to line up their top starter. The Pirates went 51-30 at home in the regular season - tied with St. Louis and Washington for best in the NL - and won the 2013 NL wild card game.

          San Francisco won the World Series in the last two even-numbered seasons but is taking its first crack at advancing via the one-game playoff and finished with three wins in its last four games after falling out of the NL West race. Pittsburgh elected to start Gerrit Cole on Sunday in an effort to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and got 12 strikeouts in seven innings from the right-hander, but ended up losing and finishing two games shy of the Cardinals in the division. The winner of the wild-card game heads to Washington to face the NL-best Nationals on Friday.

          PITCHING MATCHUP
          •Giants LH Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.091) - Bumgarner is unquestionably the ace of the San Francisco staff with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum taking a step back from his Cy Young heights of past seasons. Bumgarner had a string of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final start of the regular season, when he yielded three home runs and was charged with four runs in 7 1/3 innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 25-year-old matched his shortest start of 2014 at home against Pittsburgh on July 28, when he was reached for five runs in four innings.

          --BUMGARNER is 11-0 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
          The average score was BUMGARNER 5.7, OPPONENT 1.5.

          --BUMGARNER is 11-0 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
          The average score was BUMGARNER 5.7, OPPONENT 1.5.

          --BUMGARNER is 12-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
          The average score was BUMGARNER 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2.

          •Pirates RH Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.230) - Volquez is coming into the start hot after back-to-back scoreless outings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Dominican Republic native struggles with his control from time to time but struck out 10 while issuing only one walk over seven innings at the Braves on Thursday. Volquez is facing the Giants for the first time this season and is 2-2 with a 5.72 ERA in 11 career starts against San Francisco.

          --VOLQUEZ is 18-9 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
          The average score was VOLQUEZ 5.0, OPPONENT 5.1.

          •PREGAME NOTES: The Pirates took four of the six regular-season meetings, including two of three at home.... San Francisco C Buster Posey and 3B Pablo Sandoval are a combined 11-for-22 with five doubles against Volquez.... Pittsburgh C Russell Martin went 3-for-4 with two home runs in last year’s wild-card game.... The Giants are 30-19 after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span, and 18-7 when playing on Wednesday this season.... Pittsburgh is 21-4 in home games when playing on Wednesday, and 31-17 after six or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons.
          __________________________________________________ _

          •KEY STATS
          --SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base this season.
          The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 2.7.

          --PITTSBURGH is 28-39 (-14.0 Units) against the money line versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season.
          The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.0, OPPONENT 4.2.

          •HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
          --Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: PITTSBURGH is 11-8 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= -0.4 Units, Under= -1.5 Units.

          --Games This Season: PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season. 3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +0.8 Units.

          --All Games at PITTSBURGH Over The Last 3 Seasons: PITTSBURGH is 6-3 (+2.6 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons. 6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Over= +3.8 Units.

          --Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
          --Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
          --Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.
          --Giants are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh.
          --Under is 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts vs. Pirates.

          •RECENT TRENDS
          --SF is 21-8 in their last 29 playoff games.
          --SF is 8-2 in their last 10 playoff road games.
          --SF is 5-0 in their last 5 versus National League Central.

          --PIT is 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
          --PIT is 3-8 in their L11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
          --Under is 4-1 in Volquezs L5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

          •SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
          (36-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*)

          The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.6
          The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.9)

          The situation's record this season is: (5-3, +2.3 units).
          Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-12, +10.8 units).
          Since 1997 the situation's record is: (75-57, +20.5 units).
          Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

          Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
          Twitter@cpawsports


          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358302

            #20
            'NL Wild-Card'

            For the second straight year, the NL wild-card game will be playing in Pittsburgh's PNC Park. Last year, Pirates knocked the Reds out of postseason and this year they'll look to do the same to the Giants. Right-hander Edinson Volquez of the Pirates and left-hander Madison Bumgarner of the Giants get the call in this winner-take-all meeting. Volquez a pleasant surprise for Pirates has 13-7 record, 3.04 ERA on the campaign. The Pittsburgh hurler heads to the hill undefeated in 12 starts with Pirates 8-4 over the span. Volquez did not face SF this season but brings a 1-8 team start skid vs Giants tossing for LA/SD/CIN. On the other side, Bumgarner has 18-10 record, 2.98 ERA and ended regular season on a 1-5 stretch with Giants 6-1 over the 7 starts. The Giants' starter is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts against Pirates including a home loss this season getting smacked for 6 hits, 5 earned over 4.0 innings of work. Bumgarner known for pitching better on the road than at home heads to the mound 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA in 18 road starts (13-5 TSR). The clubs met six times this season with Pirates winning four of the matchups.
            Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

            Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
            Twitter@cpawsports


            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358302

              #21
              Mighty Quinn

              Mighty missed with the A’s on Tuesday and likes the Giants on Wednesday.

              The deficit is 623 sirignanos.
              Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

              Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
              Twitter@cpawsports


              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358302

                #22
                Hondo

                Hondo: Let’s go, Buccaroos

                For a second straight night, Hondo cashed in Kansas City, scoring with the gritty Royals Tuesday night to slash the NRN (nasty red number) to 1,585 otts.

                Wednesday night: Mr. Aitch will go with Volquez and the Bucs in their battle with that Bumgarner — 10 units.
                Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                Twitter@cpawsports


                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358302

                  #23
                  StatFox Super Situations

                  MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at PITTSBURGH
                  Play On - Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
                  133-110 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.7% | 58.3 units )
                  25-25 this year. ( 50.0% | 4.6 units )

                  StatFox Situational Power Trends

                  MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at PITTSBURGH
                  PITTSBURGH is 72-39 (+33.0 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
                  The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.3)
                  Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                  Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                  Twitter@cpawsports


                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358302

                    #24
                    Today's MLB Picks

                    San Francisco at Pittsburgh

                    The Giants head to Pittsburgh for tonight's NL wild card matchup and come into the contest with a 7-0 record in Madison Bumgarner's last 7 starts as a road favorite. San Francisco is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
                    WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1
                    Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST (9/30)
                    Game 947-948: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (8:07 p.m. EST)
                    Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.148; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 15.609
                    Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5
                    Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6
                    Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under
                    Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                    Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                    Twitter@cpawsports


                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358302

                      #25
                      Arthur Ralph
                      Blue Ribbon Over the total 6 Giants/Pitt
                      Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                      Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                      Twitter@cpawsports


                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358302

                        #26
                        GilzTips

                        (NL Wild Card) • [947] Giants ML (-111) = [2U]
                        Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                        Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                        Twitter@cpawsports


                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358302

                          #27
                          EZWINNERS

                          2* San Francisco Giants -112

                          2* Giants / Pirates Under 6.5
                          Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                          Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                          Twitter@cpawsports


                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358302

                            #28
                            SportsLab

                            1 unit on under 6.5 SF / PIT
                            Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                            Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                            Twitter@cpawsports


                            Comment

                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358302

                              #29
                              Bob Balfe

                              Pirates / Giants Under 6.5
                              Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                              Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                              Twitter@cpawsports


                              Comment

                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 358302

                                #30
                                Roc - Nemos Crew

                                Pirates - $3,000
                                Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                                Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                                Twitter@cpawsports


                                Comment

                                Working...