10-4-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman



3-Unit Play. Take #304 Florida International (+6.5) over Florida Atlantic (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is not a big rivalry. But it is still a big game for these programs in Florida. And I like the home underdog. FIU is a bad team. But a win over their rivals would make their season. FIU has revenge for a 21-6 loss last year. They were a big 28-point underdog in that game. But they hung tough. FIU has won two of the last three meetings and they are 3-0 ATS in those three games. The home team has won four of the last six meetings. I think that the Panthers will pull the upset on Thursday night. Take the points.



4-Unit Play. Take #342 North Carolina (+2.5) over Virginia Tech (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
I like the home underdog here. Virginia Tech has been bad since beating Ohio State on the road. They are 0-3 ATS and lost to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. Both of those games were at home. Now they have to go back on the road and North Carolina needs a win. They are coming off a blowout loss at Clemson. But the Heels were only outgained by 50 in that one. The home team has won three straight in this series and the underdog is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Hokies are just 8-20 ATS after a win and the Tar Heels are 10-4 ATS after a loss. They will bounce right back and they will pull the upset on the public once again.



3-Unit Play. Take #347 Massachusetts (+3.5) over Miami, OH (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
Miami, OH is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. This is not a strong team or a strong program. I like how this Massachusetts team is playing. They beat Miami last year and they are 2-0 ATS in the only two meetings. They are 0-5 on the season. But they have several very close losses. They nearly beat Colorado, Vanderbilt and Bowling Green. This team could be 3-2 right now instead of 0-5. I think they get their first win of the season here.



4-Unit Play. Take #364 Colorado State (-15) over Tulsa (3 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This Colorado State team is really improved. They have won three of four games this year and have wins on the road over Boston College and Colorado. Coach Jim McElwain really has this team going in the right direction. Tulsa has lost three straight. They were blown out by 29 points in their only road game of the season. That was on the road against Florida Atlantic. Tulsa lost a heartbreaker in overtime last week. That game was at home against Texas State. Now they have to go on the road and I think that loss is still on their minds. The Rams have won seven of their last nine games if you go back to the 2013 season. They took advantage of their extra practices for their bowl game and they look like a very confident team. I think they are setting up for a blowout here. Colorado State lost at Tulsa last year. They will turn things around and win this one. CSU is 5-1 ATS in this series going all the way back to 1988. They will cover again.



5-Unit Play. Take #370 USC (-11.5) over Arizona State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is my College Football Game of the Week. These two teams are ranked. But I only think that one of them deserves to be in the Top 25. The Sun Devils lost big last Thursday night and were blown out by UCLA. That game hurt because it was at home and it was on national television. I think they will get blown out again here. USC lost big down in Arizona State last year. They will want to get revenge. Arizona State is still without its quarterback Taylor Kelly. They are not the same team without him. The home team has won four straight in this series. And the favorite has easily covered the last three meetings. USC is coming off a blowout home win over Oregon State. They will do the same thing here.



3-Unit Play. Take #374 Air Force (+4) over Navy (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
I love the home underdog in this one. These are two option teams. And these are two big rivals from the service academies. Air Force has lost to Navy the last two years and they will want to turn that around. This has been a very even series the past five years with Navy winning three times and Air Force winning twice. Navy is coming off two bad losses. They lost as home favorites to Rutgers and Western Kentucky the last two weeks. Now they are going on the road. Air Force has won the last two weeks and that includes a major upset last week over Boise State. Air Force has a chance to make it three in a row and go to 4-1 on the season. I like their momentum.



4-Unit Play. Take #407 UAB (+9.5) over Western Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is the first time that WKU has been a favorite all season long. I do not think they will be good in this role. This team has lost two of its last three games. They are trying to jump up from the Sun Belt to Conference USA. UAB played Mississippi State tough this year and only lost by 13. They also blew out another Sun Belt team in Troy. This should be a back and forth game. Neither team has a strong defense. There will be a lot of points and this one should be a wild game. But I think it will be a close one. I think the Blazers could win this game. WKU is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and just 1-4 ATS after a win. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports


4 Unit Play. #356 Take Over 77.5 in Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 3) If a total is this high it must be for a reason. Both teams give up a ton of points and score a lot points. Buffalo has gone over the posted total in their last 5 road games. Bowling Green has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games overall.



4 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2.5 over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far, and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team, and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 nonconference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder, and expect that to continue this week.



6 Unit Play. #375 Take Oklahoma Sooners -5 over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) TOP College Football Game of the Weekend. Oklahoma is just a much more complete team than is TCU. The Frogs have had very little success since joining the Big 12, and they have played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far in 2014. I never have and never will trust Trevone Boykin to make big plays for the offense and fully expect his true colors to shine in this game. Oklahoma has won 4 of the last 5 matchups with TCU. The Sooners eventually wore down West Virginia two weeks ago in Morgantown, and that is how I see this game going as well. TCU will have some moments, but this is not the game that Oklahoma loses and drops out of the Final Four picture. Oklahoma has covered 7 of their last 8 games overall. TCU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. TCU is not ready for this major step up in class.



4 Unit Play. #400 Take Rutgers Scarlet Knights -2 over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 7 pm BTN) I really thought Michigan would bounce back last week but that was certainly not the case. We now have to kick them while they are way down and Rutgers is a team that has the firepower to accomplish such a task. Michigan just cannot score points and only has one playmaker on offense. Rutgers has a much better quarterback and this is the home game they need to put this team on the map in the Big 10. Michigan is 7-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Rutgers has covered 6 of their last 7 games.



4 Unit Play. #416 Take Boise State Broncos -4 over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm CBSSN) By now you realize we have a great feel for this Nevada team cashing with them last week for our College Football Game of the Year. Boise State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Air Force but if you turn over the football 7 times you will not beat anybody. That being said, I expect Boise State to bounce back in this game and I feel it is the right decision to start Grant Hedrick in this game. If Boise State can avoid turnovers they will win this game, something they have done against Nevada in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Nevada is 3-1 on the season but it is a little bit of fools gold since their offense has been terrible being outgained by 124 yards per game against their 3 FCS Opponents (Arizona, Washington State, and San Jose State). Their offense did nothing against San Jose State except for a few key runs and that will not get it done against a team as strong as Boise State. Nevada has a strong defense that played outstanding against Washington State, but Arizona had their way against them and so did San Jose State. The Spartans just got burned with costly turnovers. Sooner or later the stats will tell the story and this is a game that Boise State needs badly as does new coach Bryan Harsin. Boise State is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 games following a loss. Nevada is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played during October.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Esparza
VSI

8* San Jose State -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

7* Florida State -37.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST:


Big dog COL +7 and +250 ML
Northcoast Big Dogs


1/2 Unit ATS & 1/2 Unit on the Money Line


Northwestern +8
UL-Monroe +11
New Mexico St. +17.5
Idaho +17.5
Texas +17
N Carolina St. +14.5
UAB +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Friday, October 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE
Cards just 4-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE
FSU now 6-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. SDSU 8-4 vs. spread last 12 away from Qualcomm.

SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BYU
Ags had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 31-14 loss at Logan . Cougs no covers first two at home TY after 14-8 mark in role previous four seasons. Utags no covers first four on board TY, and just 1-5 as dog for Matt Wells.

Slight to BYU, based on recent trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BYU hosts Utah State

UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2) at BYU COUGARS (4-0)
Line & Total: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week.

BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week.

The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns.

WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Danny Sheridan

Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

BREAKFAST CLUB Old Dominion

3 GAME
Texas
northwestern
tcu

BLUE MARLIN Georgia

Personal Favorite Auburn

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsLocksmith

NCAAF 10/4:
Chairmans Play:

Colorado State -18 -110 6* (GAME OF THE YEAR IN NCAAF)
(Game starts at 3:00 PM Eastern Saturday 10/4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 Units Colorado St -18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8* Utah +13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

Notre Dame
Akron
Mississippi St.
ILL/Purdue Under
Colorado State/Tulsa Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

***AKRON (-23) 43 Eastern Michigan 9
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 358 Over/Under 49.5
Sometimes teams are so bad that the odds makers can’t make the spread high enough. Eastern Michigan appears to be such a team. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a 31-28 win over Morgan State but the Eagles were favored by 25 ½ points in that game and Morgan State is about 35 points worse than an average FBS team. What followed were 3 losses by a combined score of 17-155. I realize that two of those losses were to good teams Florida and Michigan State and the Eagles did cover in their 3-21 loss at Old Dominion, but that loss should have been worse and the game rating on that Old Dominion game was 29.5 points worse than average. Most alarming about that game is that their offense is so bad that they only scored 3 points against a bad Old Dominion defense. Overall, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by an average of 215 yards at just 3.3 yards per play to 503 yards at 6.9 yppl by 4 teams whose average rating is actually 2 points worse than an average FBS team.

Eastern Michigan’s offense is among the worst I’ve ever seen, averaging just 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl against an average team – and their numbers would be even worse if you only used their stats against their opponent’s starting defense. Akron’s defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, and the Zips’ stop unit is 0.7 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the Eagles’ opponents. Eastern Michigan has only averaged 12 points per game and they’re not likely to reach that low number today against a team that’s allowed just 19.8 points per game and shutout the only other really bad offense they’ve faced (a 41-0 win over Howard, who actually has a higher rated offense than Eastern Michigan). Akron did have one bad defensive game, allowing 48 points to Marshall’s potent attack, but the Zips also allowed an average of just 16.5 points in road games at Penn State and Pittsburgh, so they’ve mostly been very good.

The Akron offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but the Zips should have pretty good field position most of this game and my model projects 518 total yards at 6.2 yppl for that unit in this game against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s given up 6.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense team.

I mentioned that there are some teams that are just so bad that they can’t make the number high enough. Well, Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 25-73-1 ATS situation that plays against really bad teams as road dogs of 21 points or more. I won bets going against Eastern Michigan in that angle twice last season – both 39 point losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo. My math model gives Akron a 58.0% chance of covering based solely on the math and the situation applying to Eastern Michigan enhances our chances. Also, teams that allowed more than 60 points and scored fewer than 28 points in their previous game are just 15-41-2 ATS as road underdogs of less than 50 points. I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -25 and for 1-Star up to -27 points.



***KANSAS STATE (-12 ½) 43 Texas Tech 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 360 Over/Under 68.0
We have a few things going for us in this game. Not only does Kansas State qualify as a math play at -14 points or less but the Wildcats apply to a very good 95-29 ATS home momentum situation while Texas Tech applies to a very negative 57-127-2 ATS situation. Those are two of my two most reliable angles and the record is 7-1 ATS for the home team when they both apply to the same game. Texas Tech was a in a very good situation last week (a 43-9-1 ATS situation applied to them) and they managed to get the final touchdown to cover in a 35-45 loss at Oklahoma State. An inexperienced defense (just 4 returning starters) continues to be a major problem for Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have allowed an average of 39 points on 459 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they’re not good by major conference standards and my math model projects 495 yards at 6.3 yppl for a better than average Kansas State offense.

I’ll assume that Texas Tech will have quarterback Davis Webb behind center, as he’s practiced this week in full pads despite a dislocated shoulder in his non-throwing arm. I’ll even assume that the injury will have no ill effects and the Red Raiders’ pass heavy attack rates at 0.6 yards per play better than average with Webb at the controls (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). This isn’t a perfect matchup for a Kansas State defense that excels as defending the run but the Wildcats have been 1.0 yppl better than average defensively even though opponents tend to throw more against them. My model projects a modest 5.4 yppl for Texas Tech in this game but the Red Raiders will run a lot of plays and are predicted to gain 407 total yards.

Overall, the math model gives Kansas State a 56% chance of covering after factoring in their projected edge in turnovers and far superior special teams, so we have a combination of a math play with two very strong situations that all point towards the Wildcats covering. I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -16 points and for 1-Star at -16 ½ points.


**Buffalo (+5 ½) 40 BOWLING GREEN 37
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 355 Over/Under 76.5
These two teams have been all offense and no defense this season with Buffalo averaging 34 points and allowing 34 points per game and Bowling Green averaging 38 points and allowing 44 points per game despite allowing just 7 points in a win over VMI. This game could come down to whichever has the ball last and I certainly don’t mind taking the points with what appears to be the better team based on my ratings. Bowling Green has put up some big offensive numbers (502 yards per game) because the Falcons play at such a fast pace, but they’ve actually been 0.1 yards per play worse than average this season – averaging 6.0 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. The offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average in 4 games since James Knapke took over at quarterback after veteran starter Matt Johnson was lost after just one game. That’s not much of a difference from a yards per play perspective but Johnson was an accurate passer that threw just 7 interceptions in 405 attempts as a starter the last two seasons while Knapke has already thrown 6 picks in 191 passes (3.1%) and that trend appears likely to continue given how many passes opponents have gotten their hands on that haven’t been picked off.

Buffalo has the better attack, as the Bulls have been 0.3 yppl better than average through 5 games, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Veteran quarterback Joe Licata has been consistently good, averaging 7.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 5 games, including against a very good Baylor defense. Licata also isn’t as turnover prone as his counterpart, having thrown just 15 interceptions in 739 career pass attempts (2.0%).

Defensively both teams have been equally bad, as Bowling Green 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team while Buffalo has given up 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. Both teams aren’t actually as bad as those numbers, as Bowling Green’s stats are skewed by the 10.0 yard per play they gave up to Wisconsin while Buffalo’s stats are skewed by the 8.6 yppl they allowed to Baylor. Buffalo also isn’t going to continue to give up 19.4 yards per completion, which is basically impossible over the course of a season. The Bulls do play a style of defense that limits completions (just 52.0% completions allowed last year and only 49.6% allowed this season) but does allow teams to beat them over the top, allowing 14.6 yards per catch over the 3 years under their current defensive coordinator. Buffalo’s current 19.4 ypc is 6.4 standard deviations away from the national mean of 12.0 ypc and it’s 4.1 standard deviations away from Buffalo’s 3 year average, making it very unlikely (basically a 0% chance of continuing to be that bad) that teams will continue to average 19 yards a catch against them. I decided that it was reasonable to use the 15.6 ypc that Buffalo has allowed since the beginning of last season and making that adjustment would result in the Bulls being 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively. Even suggesting that Buffalo will allow 15.6 ypc going forward is a stretch given that only 5 out of 1225 teams have allowed 15.6 ypc or more over the course of an entire season since 2004 (16.6 ypc is the highest). But, I prefer to be cautious in my adjustments and 15.6 ypc seemed reasonable given Buffalo’s higher than normal ypc under their current coaching staff.

Adjusting for Bowling Green’s variance in rushing yards allowed (due to the 648 rushing yards at 11.4 yards per run they allowed to Wisconsin) would result in the Falcons’ defense being 1.2 yppl worse than average. Buffalo’s defense was 0.2 yppl better than Bowling Green’s defense before adjusting for the variance and they rate at 0.3 yppl better after the adjustments. Not only is Buffalo a bit better than Bowling Green on both offense and defense but I think Buffalo’s defensive style of play will work well against the Falcons’ style of attack. Bowling Green likes to control the ball with a no huddle offense full of short passes and Knapke doesn’t throw deep very often, which is evident in his low 10.4 yards per completion average. Buffalo’s problem is getting beat over the top but the Bulls only allow 50% completions and they should be able to limit Bowling Green’s aerial attack unless Knapke suddenly starts connecting on more deep passes. My model projects 6.8 yppl for Buffalo and 6.7 yppl for Bowling Green and there figures to be a lot of plays run in this game, which should lead to a lot of scoring. While Buffalo has a slight edge in yards per play, even on the road, and in projected turnovers, the Falcons have an advantage in special teams, which has been a problem for the Bulls. However, overall the math model gives Buffalo a 56.3% chance of covering based solely on the math and the chances are enhanced by a 46-108 ATS situation that applies to Bowling Green. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 1-Star down to +3 points.



**WEST VIRGINIA (-26) 51 Kansas 16 - **OVER (54 ½)
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 52.5
The Charlie Weis era is over at Kansas but the Clint Bowen era doesn’t figure to start out any better. West Virginia had a week off last week to lick their wounds after a 33-45 loss to a very good Oklahoma team and the 2-2 Mountaineers will take no team for granted. Playing Kansas will seem like a walk in the park after facing the likes of Alabama (a competitive 23-33 loss), Maryland (a 3 point road win) and Oklahoma. The Mounties’ offense will have an especially easy time of hit today. It’s not that the Kansas defense is bad, since the Jayhawks are actually not much worse than average defensively, but rather that the level of competition will be so much easier for a potent West Virginia attack. The Mountaineers averaged 32 points on 540 yards at 6.3 yards per play in 3 FBS games against 3 very good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average attack. The Kansas defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. I actually rate the Jayhawks’ defense at just 0.4 yppl worse than average since the 10.1 yards per pass play that they allowed in their opener to SE Missouri State is most likely an aberration. However, I do expect West Virginia’s Clint Trickett to average close 10 yards per pass play today, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (including sacks) against 4 teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The Kansas defense would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so it’s certainly not a stretch to project Trickett to average close to 10 yards per pass play given that he’s averaged 8.3 yppp and is facing a team that is 1.3 yppp worse than the FBS teams he’s faced thus far. My math model projects West Virginia to gain 659 total yards in this game (even after adjusting Kansas’ defensive rating), which is not that crazy when you consider they’ve averaged 540 yards against 3 very good defensive teams.

The Kansas offense has averaged just 15.3 points and 5.0 yards per play this season against a slightly worse than average slate of opposing defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack and today they face that same level of defense, as West Virginia would also allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. I do expect Kansas to have success running the ball in this game given that West Virginia’s defense weakness is in their run defense (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). The problem for the Jayhawks is that they’ll have to throw the ball when they get behind and Kansas has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) while West Virginia has been 0.7 yppp better than average defending the pass. Kansas is projected to run for 235 yards but for just 353 yards at 4.6 yards per play. That won’t be enough to keep up with West Virginia’s potent attack.

Overall, the math favors West Virginia by 34 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The math model points toward plays on both West Virginia and the Over and I’ll split the bet into 2-Stars on West Virginia and 2-Stars on the Over. Kansas would probably have to score at least 17 points to cover the spread and they score 17 points or more then the game will likely go over the total since I don’t see how West Virginia will score less than 40 points given that they averaged 37.5 points per game against a schedule of teams that are 0.8 yards per play better defensively than Kansas. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 points or less and I’ll play 2-Stars on the OVER at 58 points or less and for 1-Star up to 59 points. If the line on West Virginia moves higher than 28 points for a no play then add a Star to the Over as long as it still qualifies as a play.


*Georgia State (+17) 30 UL LAFAYETTE 39
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 365 Over/Under 64.5
UL Lafayette was the overwhelming preseason pick to win the Sun Belt title with 3rd year starting quarterback Terrance Broadway and explosive RB Elijah McGuire returning along with 6 other offensive starters and 9 defensive starters. Thing haven’t gone according to plan for the Ragin’ Cajuns, as the offense has been far from explosive and the defense has been horrible. The loss of big play receiver Jamal Robinson for the last 2 ½ games helps explain part of the offensive woes and Robinson is scheduled to return to action this week. Robinson has averaged 10.3 yards per pass thrown to him since the start of last season and his return projects to an increase of 0.5 yards per pass play, which is about 1 ½ points. However, Broadway has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he was 1.2 yppp worse than average in the 1 ½ games in which Robinson was healthy, averaging 6.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.9 yppp before Robinson was injured. Even though Broadway was no better this season with Robinson than he’s been without him, I’ll assume that to be variance and will project a 0.5 yppp increase for Broadway in this game. That would get Lafayette up to average offensively and the Ragin’ Cajuns should have a very good offensive game against a bad Georgia State defense that’s allowed 6.0 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects 505 total yards at 6.9 yppl for UL Lafayette in this game.

However, that isn’t likely to be enough offense to distance themselves from a very capable Georgia State offense that has been slightly better than average this season. The Panthers have averaged 30.3 points on 462 yards at 6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, and they’ve scored 31 points or more in their 3 games against bad defensive teams Abilene Christian, New Mexico State, and Air Force. UL Lafayette’s defense is actually worse than the average of those 3 teams, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have surrendered 36 points per game on 471 yards at 6.6 yppl to 4 teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers include the 6 points and 4.0 yppl that they gave up to a horrible Southern offense in their opener and ULL has allowed over 500 total yards in each of their 3 games against FBS teams, including 48 points on 533 yards at 7.8 yppl to a mediocre Louisiana Tech offense. I’ve downgraded Georgia State’s offense due to the injury to leading rusher Kyler Neal, who joins former lead back Krysten Hammon on the sideline. Those two both averaged 5.2 ypr and the rest of the backs have combined for just 3.3 ypr, although against tougher competition since Neal and Hammon got the bulk of the carries against horrible defensive teams Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. It’s doubtful that the new running backs will be as bad as they’ve been, but I’ll assume they will be and that results in a decline of 0.8 yards per rushing play and 0.4 yards per play from Georgia State’s offensive rating. The Panthers are still just 0.3 yppl worse than average while UL Lafayette’s defense is 1.2 yppl worse than average and Georgia State is projected to rack up 467 yards at 6.3 yppl, which should get them around 30 points even if they continue to struggle in special teams (which costs them field position).

My math favors UL Lafayette by just 12 ½ points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a negative 18-55 ATS first conference game angle that adds to Georgia State’s chances of covering. The Panthers have also proven to be a pesky underdogs, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 14 points since joining the FBS ranks last season. I’ll take Georgia State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.