10-4-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
lock kansas state

strong southern cal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Touchdown club
lock
boise state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINDY CITY
10 WISCONSIN
regular
illinois
stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trophy Club

all 6 unit plays

380 Texas
376 TCU
384 Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

Indiana -12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

cfb

tcu-best bet
notre dame -best bet
mississippi
wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack

#321 NORTH TEXAS +13
#329 MEMPHIS +4.5
#355 BUFFALO +4.5
#360 KANSAS STATE -13.5
#385 TEXAS A&M +2.5
#396 WASHINGTON STATE -3
#404 ARKANSAS STATE -13.5
#405 NORTH CAROLINA STATE +14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Memphis
Lsu

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James

Navy -3
Stanford -2
Nebraska +7
UCLA -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patron 50k nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Denton Bancroft:
here are my final 3:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -2.5 (-105) (2*): 7:30 pm EDT

Kentucky Wildcats MoneyLine +165 (2*): 7:30 pm EDT

Nevada Wolf Pack +3 (-110) (3*): 10:30 pm EDT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin 25* Cincinnati Bearcats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian cowboy baseball.



Over 7. SF/wash.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Unlimited
5* Pittsburgh
5* Memphis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By Mike O'Connor



Subject: NFL Week 5 Best Bets - By Mike O'Connor



I have three Best Bets for Week 5 so far and may have another one or two on Saturday. Please be on the lookout for your final update on Saturday by 5PM Pacific. Good luck.

Here is what we have so far:

(460) **New Orleans -10
(465) **Baltimore +3.5 (-115)
(467) **Pittsburgh -6

NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor

**NEW ORLEANS (-10) 34 Tampa Bay 16
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 460 Over/Under 48.5
After getting throttled by the Falcons 14-56 in the Week 3 Thursday night match-up, an embarrassed Bucs team predictably bounced back in a big way last week in Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 as a 7.5 point underdog. They played excellent rush defense –allowing the Steelers previously good ground game just 85 yards at 3.1 ypr, and sacked Ben Roethlisberger 5 times. When he had time, however, Big Ben carved up the Bucs pass defense (331 yards at 7.4 yps) and just missed on two other long gainers, one dropped and one just overthrown. The Bucs offense was unbelievably sloppy and had a hard time getting the play in on time most of the game. They’ve been working on correcting those problems this week but I expect that they’ll have similar issues in that regard in the loud Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

From a match-up perspective, a poor Bucs pass defense that allows 279 yards at 8.0 yps will face a very good pass offense in New Orleans and should have a hard time slowing them down. Offensively, Tampa Bay is averaging just 291 yards per game at 5.1 yppl against teams that have allowed 377 yards at 6.2 yppl and will be hard pressed to keep up with a New Orleans attack that is deadly at home and will be highly motivated to improve on their 1-3 record. Since the beginning of 2011, the Saints are 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS at home, winning by an average score of 35.1 – 19.7. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in away games since the beginning of last season. In addition, the Saints qualify in a 56-20-3 situation as well as a 23-2-1 subset and my model favors them in this spot by about 14 points. With a highly motivated, more talented team playing at home where they have dominated in the past, in addition to both situations and line value pointing the same direction, I’ll take the Saints -10 for 2-Stars up to -11.
**Pittsburgh (-6) 29 JACKSONVILLE 15
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 467 Over/Under 46.5
I have been spot on about the Steelers the past two weeks, using them as a Best Bet and easy winner two weeks ago as an underdog against the Panthers and then playing against them last week as a large favorite against the Bucs, another easy winner. The Steelers are in a good spot to play well this week off of an embarrassing loss at home to the Buccaneers where they dominated action in the first half but allowed penalties and missed opportunities to spoil their day. When he had time to throw last week after some protection issues in the first half, Big Ben carved up the Bucs pass defense and just missed on two other long gainers, one dropped and one just overthrown. It appeared that WR Antonio Brown could have had a huge day as I spotted him alone in the Bucs secondary on a number of occasions. That could be an issue this week for the Jaguars who have made a habit of blowing coverages and giving up big plays. So far this season, Jacksonville has given up 25 pass plays of 20 yards or longer, including six that have gone for touchdowns, worst in the league.

In addition to the advantage the Steelers have in the passing game, their ground game should also be able to produce. With Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount toting the ball, the Steelers are averaging 144 yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that allow 122 yards at 4.5 ypr and face a Jaguars defense that is giving up 131 yards at 4.3 ypr on the ground and 452 yards at 6.1 yppl overall. Overall, Jacksonville is last in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense. They are tied for first with 12 sacks, but almost half of those came in the opening half 17-0 lead against the Eagles in Week 1 while Philadelphia was sleepwalking. Offensively, they have been nearly as inept, averaging 280 total yards at 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 350 yards at 5.6 yppl. Rookie Blake Bortles is now the starter and while he has demonstrated some play making ability, he also has turned the ball over 4 times in just over 6 quarters of play so far.

The Steelers qualify in a 662-489-40 situation while the Jaguars qualify in a negative 180-251-12 situation of their own that plays against them here. Jacksonville does qualify in a couple of other situations that don’t rate as highly and my model favors the Steelers in this game by about 10 points. Pittsburgh is a motivated, superior team laying less than a touchdown. I’ll take the Steelers -6 for 2-Stars up to -7.
**Baltimore (+3.5 -115) 26 INDIANAPOLIS 22
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 465 Over/Under 47.5
The Ravens made surprisingly easy work of the Panthers in their 38-10 home win last week featuring a balanced attack that generated 454 yards at 7.6 yppl while holding the Panthers to just 315 yards at 5.1 yppl. With the win the Ravens are just a half game behind the division leading Bengals as Baltimore sits at 3-1 entering this game. Meanwhile, the Colts crushed the Titans 41-17 behind another strong performance by quarterback Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is now 2-2 on the season, losing to the two good teams that they have faced (the Broncos and the Eagles) while beating the two poor teams that they have faced (the Jaguars and the Titans). The past two wins have been convincing -- but putting them in perspective for a moment-- they were against teams that have a combined 12-28 record since the beginning of 2013 and are just a combined 1-7 this season. They’ll face a much tougher match-up this week against the Ravens.

Indianapolis will have a hard time moving the ball as well as they have recently as they face a Baltimore defense that is allowing 343 total yards at 5.8 yppl to teams that generate 373 yards at 6.0 yppl. The Ravens have been very good against the run in allowing just 84 yards at 3.5 ypr and should be able to shut down an average Colts ground attack. If they can put enough pressure on Andrew Luck to slow down the pass game just a bit – as I believe they will- the Ravens will have a chance at pulling the upset. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to move the ball effectively against a Colts defense that not been good defending the run, allowing 106 yards at 4.6 ypr to teams that gain 90 yards at 4.0 yps on average. With a talented stable of running backs behind an offensive line that has improved both in technique and in scheme, the Ravens should be able to exploit this deficiency.

Baltimore qualifies in a 662-491-40 situation and my model likes the Ravens quite a bit here (-3.6). The Colts have played two consecutive divisional games and face another next Thursday night in prime-time against the division leading Houston Texans. This is a sandwich spot for the Colts and coupled with the situation and line value, I’ll take the Ravens +3.5 -115 for 2-Stars down to +3 -120.